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  • Tue, Dec 1 2020
  • 3:44 PM » With no $1,200 stimulus checks, latest proposal may not be enough to help hurting Americans, experts say
    Published Tue, Dec 01 2020 3:44 PM by CNBC
    A bipartisan group of lawmakers is pushing for a new coronavirus stimulus bill on Capitol Hill. But experts say it falls short of the aid Americans need now.
  • 1:56 PM » Suburban Shift for Home Construction Continues into Third Quarter
    Published Tue, Dec 01 2020 1:56 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    A trend of higher demand for housing in lower-density areas reported in the second quarter National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Home Building Geography Index (HBGI) has persisted into the fall, as single-family and multifamily construction continued to overperform in lower cost markets like suburbs and exurbs. The third quarter HBGI reveals that a suburban shift for consumer home buying... Read More › The post Suburban Shift for Home Construction Continues into Third Quarter first appeared on Eye On Housing .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 1:08 PM » Rosy Vaccine Outlook Brightens World Economic Forecast, But Recovery May Be Uneven
    Published Tue, Dec 01 2020 1:08 PM by www.npr.org
    China is predicted to account for more than a third of global economic growth next year, while the U.S. and European countries lag behind.
  • 1:07 PM » Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up 50% Year-over-year
    Published Tue, Dec 01 2020 1:07 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices.   This graph shows CME framing futures through Nov 30th. Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. This is down sharply from late August, but still up 51% year-over-year. There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices, and usually prices will increase in the Spring, and peak around May, and then bottom around October or November - although there is quite a bit of seasonal variability. Clearly there was a surge in demand for lumber mid-year - then the mills started catching up - but demand remains strong.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:54 AM » ISM Manufacturing index Decreased to 57.5 in November
    Published Tue, Dec 01 2020 11:54 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The ISM manufacturing index indicated expansion in November. The PMI was at 57.5% in November, down from 59.3% in October. The employment index was at 48.4%, down from 53.2% last month, and the new orders index was at 65.1%, down from 67.9%. From ISM: Manufacturing PMI® at 57.5%; November 2020 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector grew in November, with the overall economy notching a seventh consecutive month of growth, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: " The November Manufacturing PMI® registered 57.5 percent , down 1.8 percentage points from the October reading of 59.3 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy for the seventh month in a row after a contraction in April, which ended a period of 131 consecutive months of growth. The New Orders Index registered 65.1 percent , down 2.8 percentage points from the October reading of 67.9 percent. The Production Index registered 60.8 percent, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points compared to the October reading of 63 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 56.9 percent, 1.2 percentage points higher compared to the October reading of 55.7 percent. The Employment Index returned to contraction territory at 48.4 percent , 4.8 percentage points down from the October reading of 53.2 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 61.7 percent, up 1.2 percentage points from the October figure of 60.5 percent. The Inventories Index registered 51.2 percent, 0.7 percentage point lower than the October reading of 51.9 percent. The Prices Index registered 65.4 percent, down 0.1 percentage point compared to the October reading of 65.5 percent. The New Export Orders Index registered 57.8 percent, an increase...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:59 AM » Construction Spending Increased 1.3% in October
    Published Tue, Dec 01 2020 10:59 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Census Bureau reported that overall construction spending decreased in June: Construction spending during October 2020 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,438.5 billion, 1.3 percent above the revised September estimate of $1,420.4 billion. The October figure is 3.7 percent above the October 2019 estimate of $1,386.8 billion. emphasis added Both private and public spending increased: Spending on private construction was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,093.7 billion, 1.4 percent above the revised September estimate of $1,078.9 billion. ... In October, the estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of public construction spending was $344.8 billion, 1.0 percent above the revised September estimate of $341.4 billion. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows private residential and nonresidential construction spending, and public spending, since 1993. Note: nominal dollars, not inflation adjusted. Residential spending is 6% below the previous peak. Non-residential spending is 10% above the previous peak in January 2008 (nominal dollars), but has been weak recently. Public construction spending is 6% above the previous peak in March 2009, and 32% above the austerity low in February 2014. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in construction spending. On a year-over-year basis, private residential construction spending is up 14.5%. Non-residential spending is down 8.2% year-over-year. Public spending is up 3.7% year-over-year. Construction was considered an essential service in most areas and did not decline sharply like many other sectors, but it seems likely that non-residential, and public spending (depending on disaster relief), will be under pressure. For example, lodging is down 23% YoY, multi-retail down 19% YoY, and office down 8% YoY . This was above consensus expectations of a 0.4% increase in spending, and construction spending for the previous two months was revised up (mostly private residential).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:47 AM » Lawmakers unveiling bipartisan coronavirus stimulus package as stalemate drags on
    Published Tue, Dec 01 2020 9:47 AM by CNBC
    Bipartisan lawmakers are pushing a coronavirus stimulus plan as Nancy Pelosi and Mitch McConnell have made no progress on a relief bill.
  • 8:55 AM » CoreLogic: House Prices up 7.3% Year-over-year in October
    Published Tue, Dec 01 2020 8:55 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for October . The recent Case-Shiller index release was for September. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: Gaining Momentum: Annual U.S. Home Prices Appreciated 7.3% in October, CoreLogic Reports CoreLogic® ... today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI™) and HPI Forecast™ for October 2020. Nationally, home prices increased 7.3% in October 2020, compared with October 2019 , marking the fastest annual appreciation since April 2014. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.1% compared to September 2020. ... Home prices climbed in recent months due to heightened demand and ongoing home supply constraints. The supply shortage could further intensify as COVID-19 cases continue to rise and would-be sellers remain hesitant about putting their homes on the market. However, to keep up with the rising demand, new home construction surged in October and builder confidence reached a new high for the third consecutive month. The decreased pressure on supply could moderate home price growth over the next year. This is reflected in the CoreLogic HPI Forecast, which shows home prices slowing to 1.9% by October 2021. However, should the economic recovery from the pandemic be more robust, then we would expect projections for home price performance to improve. "Home buyers have been spurred by record-low mortgage rates and an urgency to buy or upgrade to more space, especially as much of the American workforce continues to work from home," said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "First-time buyers in particular should remain a big part of next year's home purchases, as the largest wave of millennials is heading into prime home-buying years." "The pandemic has shifted home buyer interest toward detached rather than attached homes," said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. "Detached...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:08 AM » CDC panel is set to vote Tuesday on who gets coronavirus vaccine first
    Published Tue, Dec 01 2020 8:08 AM by CNBC
    Initial doses will be limited as manufacturing ramps up, with top U.S. health officials predicting it could take several months immunize everyone in the U.S.
  • 8:07 AM » Treasury yields rise despite coronavirus and economic concerns
    Published Tue, Dec 01 2020 8:07 AM by CNBC
    U.S. Treasury yields rose on Tuesday morning, despite rapidly rising coronavirus cases across the country and an uncertain economic outlook as a result.
  • Mon, Nov 30 2020
  • 3:51 PM » Las Vegas Visitor Authority: No Convention Attendance, Visitor Traffic Down 49% YoY in October
    Published Mon, Nov 30 2020 3:51 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Las Vegas Visitor Authority: October 2020 Las Vegas Visitor Statistics Visitor volume continued to ramp-up in October as the destination hosted approx. 1.86M visitors, about half of last October's tally but up 9% from last month. With continued hotel re-openings at the end of Sep and in early Oct, the room tally of open properties in October represented 140,658 rooms. Total occupancy was 46.9% for the month as weekend occupancy reached 64.2% and midweek occupancy reached 38.6%. Average daily rates among open properties reached $104.54 (-3.3% MoM, -22.8% YoY) while RevPAR came in at roughly $49, down -59.7% vs. last October. * Reflects weighted average of daily room tallies Here is the data from the Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority . Click on graph for larger image. The blue and red bars are monthly visitor traffic (left scale) for 2019 and 2020.   The dashed blue and orange lines are convention attendance (right scale).  Convention traffic in October was down 100% compared to October 2019. And visitor traffic was down 49% YoY. The casinos started to reopen on June 4th (it appears about 94% of rooms have now opened).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:19 PM » Weekly jobless claims counts are inaccurate and the unemployed are being underpaid, watchdog says
    Published Mon, Nov 30 2020 1:19 PM by CNBC
    Mistakes have moved in both directions, with recipients sometimes undercounted and at other times overcounted, according to the GAO.
  • 1:12 PM » New Home Inventory at a Three and Half Year Low
    Published Mon, Nov 30 2020 1:12 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    After a surge in the pace of new home sales in July and August, the monthly growth rate of newly built single-family home slowed during the Fall. While the level of sales remains elevated and at post-Great Recession highs, sales have exceeded construction starts by a historic margin at the end of the summer. This necessitated an increase in starts... Read More › The post New Home Inventory at a Three and Half Year Low first appeared on Eye On Housing .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 12:27 PM » Personal Income Dipped in October
    Published Mon, Nov 30 2020 12:27 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    The most recent data release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed that personal income decreased in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of $19,726 billion. It declined 0.7% in October, primarily as a result of the tapering of government economic recovery payments. However personal income from wages and salaries inched up 0.7%, as the economy continued... Read More › The post Personal Income Dipped in October first appeared on Eye On Housing .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 9:47 AM » Biden confirms Janet Yellen as nominee for Treasury secretary
    Published Mon, Nov 30 2020 9:47 AM by CNBC
    Biden confirms Janet Yellen as nominee for Treasury secretary<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/30/biden-confirms-janet-yellen-as-nominee-for-treasury-secretary.html
  • 9:22 AM » Agencies issue statement on LIBOR transition
    Published Mon, Nov 30 2020 9:22 AM by Federal Reserve
    WASHINGTON-The Federal Reserve Board, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency today issued a statement encouraging banks to cease entering into new contracts that use USD LIBOR as a reference rate as soon as practicable and in any event by December 31, 2021, in order to facilitate an orderly-and safe and sound- LIBOR transition.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Federal Reserve
  • 8:28 AM » Moderna says new data shows Covid vaccine is more than 94% effective, plans to ask FDA for emergency clearance later Monday
    Published Mon, Nov 30 2020 8:28 AM by CNBC
    Moderna says new data shows Covid vaccine is more than 94% effective, plans to ask FDA for emergency clearance later Monday<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/30/moderna-covid-vaccine-is-94point1percent-effective-plans-to-apply-for-emergency-ok-monday.html
  • 8:04 AM » Zillow Case-Shiller House Price Forecast: "Taking Off in Earnest"
    Published Mon, Nov 30 2020 8:04 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Case-Shiller house price indexes for September were released last week. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: September Case-Shiller Results & October Forecast: Taking Off in Earnest The weather cooled, but the pace of home price appreciation remained red hot into September. The national Case-Shiller Home Price Index rose 7% year-over-year in September. The smaller 10- and 20-city composite indices grew more slowly, at 6.2% and 6.6% year-over-year, respectively. The annual rate of growth was faster in August than in July in all three main indices. On a monthly (seasonally adjusted) basis, the 10- and 20-city indices were each up by more than 1% (1.2% and 1.3%, respectively), and the national index was up 1.4% from August. ... With mortgage rates staying near their lowest levels ever, buyers remain eager to grab the relatively few homes that are listed on the market, and do so quickly - homes went under contract two weeks faster in September than they did a year earlier. Home prices are normally sticky, meaning that they often take a while to respond to market shifts. These elevated levels of market competition have been placing upward pressure on prices for months, but home prices have just recently began to take off in earnest. Some measures show home prices now growing at a faster pace than they ever have. While the worsening spread of COVID-19, and the economic uncertainty that accompanies it, do pose some potential risks to the booming housing market, it appears unlikely that this remarkable growth in home prices will abate in the coming months. Annual growth in [October] as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate in all three main indices. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the October S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, December 29. emphasis added The Zillow forecast is for the year...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:04 AM » 10-year Treasury yield rises despite lingering coronavirus concerns
    Published Mon, Nov 30 2020 8:04 AM by CNBC
    The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield climbed on Monday despite confirmed cases of the coronavirus across the country surpassing 13 million at the end of last week.
  • Fri, Nov 27 2020
  • 11:11 AM » Evictions have led to hundreds of thousands of additional Covid-19 cases, research finds
    Published Fri, Nov 27 2020 11:11 AM by CNBC
    Expiring state eviction bans have led to hundreds of thousands of additional coronavirus cases, new research finds.
  • 9:59 AM » How to break the late rent, missed mortgage payment cycle
    Published Fri, Nov 27 2020 9:59 AM by CNBC
    As many as 35 million Americans face eviction due to an inability to make housing payments. Here's a step-by-step plan to keep yourself in your home, for good.
  • 8:03 AM » Treasury yields edge lower amid low volumes
    Published Fri, Nov 27 2020 8:03 AM by CNBC
    U.S. Treasury yields dipped on Friday morning, amid low volumes, as investors returned from the Thanksgiving holiday.
  • 8:02 AM » Main Street pins hopes on Small Business Saturday sales to help stay afloat
    Published Fri, Nov 27 2020 8:02 AM by CNBC
    It's uncertain how Small Business Saturday on Nov. 28 will move the needle and help the millions of business owners on Main Street struggling to survive.
  • Wed, Nov 25 2020
  • 4:06 PM » Fed weighed adjusting bond purchases to provide more help to economy 'fairly soon,' minutes show - CNBC
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2020 4:06 PM by news.google.com
    Fed weighed adjusting bond purchases to provide more help to economy 'fairly soon,' minutes show    CNBC Boston Fed issues guidance for lenders on end of Main Street program    Economic Times U.S. stocks dip after Fed minutes show no immediate change to asset-purchase plan    MarketWatch The market is looking for clues from the Fed on whether it will adjust bond buying    CNBC Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee    Forex Factory View Full Coverage on Google News
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: news.google.com
  • 2:26 PM » Fed releases minutes from November meeting
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2020 2:26 PM by CNBC
    Officials at the meeting voted to keep benchmark short-term borrowing rates anchored near zero.
  • 2:03 PM » Fed Minutes: Full Text
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2020 2:03 PM by Federal Reserve
    Developments in Financial Markets and Open Market Operations
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Federal Reserve
  • 12:55 PM » The CDC is expected to shorten Covid quarantine time, something most everyone seems to agree on
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2020 12:55 PM by CNBC
    "I mean, frankly we probably should have done this sooner," Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former U.S. Food and Drug Administration commissioner, told CNBC.
  • 10:38 AM » Buying a home: Why it's harder for younger generations than their parents
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2020 10:38 AM by CNBC
    A report by the Urban Institute estimates 3.4 millennials would be homeowners had the rate of homeownership kept up with previous generations.
  • 10:32 AM » Yellen would need Congress to approve use of clawed-back Fed loan funds, Treasury says
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2020 10:32 AM by news.google.com
    Yellen would need Congress to approve use of clawed-back Fed loan funds, Treasury says    Reuters Mnuchin Plans to Put $455 Billion Beyond Yellen's Easy Reach    Bloomberg If Congress doesn't act, a lot of damage will be done between now and February: Fmr. Treasury Sec.    CNBC Television Janet Yellen will champion Main Street, not Wall Street    USA TODAY Janet Yellen is the treasury secretary we need right now    The Washington Post View Full Coverage on Google News
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: news.google.com
  • 10:31 AM » Personal Income decreased 0.7% in October, Spending increased 0.5%
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2020 10:31 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for October: Personal income decreased $130.1 billion (0.7 percent) in October according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) decreased $134.8 billion (0.8 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased $70.9 billion (0.5 percent) . Real DPI decreased 0.8 percent in October and Real PCE increased 0.5 percent. The PCE price index was unchanged from September. The PCE price index excluding food and energy was also unchanged. emphasis added The October PCE price index increased 1.2 percent year-over-year and the October PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.4 percent year-over-year. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through October 2020 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change . Click on graph for larger image. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. Personal income was much lower than expected,  and the increase in PCE was above expectations. Note the red line for Q3 (the quarterly level of PCE).   This was 3.3% below the Q4 2019 level for PCE. Also note: If real PCE in November and December are just at the same level as in October, PCE will increase at a 6% annual rate in Q4.   
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:11 AM » Q3 GDP Growth Unchanged at 33.1% Annual Rate
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2020 9:11 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2020 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits, Third Quarter 2020 (Preliminary Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 33.1 percent in the third quarter of 2020 , according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP decreased 31.4 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month that also showed an increase in real GDP of 33.1 percent. With the second estimate, upward revisions to nonresidential fixed investment, residential investment, and exports were offset by downward revisions to state and local government spending, private inventory investment, and personal consumption expenditures (PCE). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, were revised up emphasis added Here is a Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates . PCE growth was revised down slightly to 40.6% from 40.7%. Residential investment was revised up from 59.3% to 62.3%. This was at the consensus forecast.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:11 AM » Covid cases are exploding across U.S. and Thanksgiving could be an 'accelerator event'
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2020 9:11 AM by CNBC
    "I'm not scared for the day itself, but for what's going to happen, two, three, and four weeks later," Dr. Megan Ranney, an emergency physician in Rhode Island, said.
  • 8:34 AM » U.S. weekly jobless claims total 778,000, vs 733,000 estimate
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2020 8:34 AM by CNBC
    U.S. weekly jobless claims total 778,000, vs 733,000 estimate<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2020/11/25/us-weekly-jobless-claims.html
  • 8:08 AM » What a Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen would mean for markets
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2020 8:08 AM by news.google.com
    What a Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen would mean for markets    Yahoo Finance Fmr. Fed Governor Raskin says Yellen is a great pick, she'll remain committed to stimulus    CNBC Television Dow Rallies 500 Points and Hits 30,000 for the First Time    TheStreet Former Fed Chair Yellen Makes Great Treasury Pick in Era of Coordination    Bloomberg The pressing urgency of more US fiscal relief    Financial Times View Full Coverage on Google News
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: news.google.com
  • 8:07 AM » The market is looking for clues from the Fed on whether it will adjust bond buying
    Published Wed, Nov 25 2020 8:07 AM by CNBC
    The Fed could provide clues about whether it intends to change its bond buying program when it releases its minutes Wednesday.
  • Tue, Nov 24 2020
  • 3:17 PM » Fannie, Freddie Overseer Looks to End Federal Control Before Trump Leaves
    Published Tue, Nov 24 2020 3:17 PM by www.realtor.com
    The long-shot effort could affect the cost and availability of mortgages for millions of Americans. The post Fannie, Freddie Overseer Looks to End Federal Control Before Trump Leaves appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 1:09 PM » FHFA Announces Conforming Loan Limits for 2021
    Published Tue, Nov 24 2020 1:09 PM by FHFA
    Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Baseline Limit Will Increase to $548,250
  • 12:12 PM » Dow Surges Past 30,000 For First Time In Historic Milestone
    Published Tue, Nov 24 2020 12:12 PM by www.npr.org
    Markets welcomed President Trump's recommendation the transition process begin, which will provide critical resources and information to President-elect Joe Biden's team.
  • 12:12 PM » What's next for the Treasury-Fed COVID-19 lending facilities?
    Published Tue, Nov 24 2020 12:12 PM by webfeeds.brookings.edu
    Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin, in a November 19 letter to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, reduced to nearly nothing the Treasury's commitments to many of the emergency lending facilities that the Fed created in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, including the ones targeted at mid-sized businesses and state and local governments. This has led to…             
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: webfeeds.brookings.edu
  • 11:34 AM » Note: November Employment Report Will Show a Decrease of 93,000 Temporary Census Workers
    Published Tue, Nov 24 2020 11:34 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Census Bureau released an update today on 2020 Census Paid Temporary Workers As of the October reference week , October 11th - 17th, there were 99,490 decennial Census temporary workers. As of the November reference week, November 8th - 14th, there were 6,464 temp workers. That is a decrease of 93,026 temporary jobs . In August, the employment report showed a gain of 238,000 temporary 2020 Census workers, boosting the headline number. In September, the employment report showed a decrease of 41,000 temporary 2020 Census workers, reducing the headline number. In October, the employment report showed a decrease of 147,311 temporary Census employment.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
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