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  • Thu, Aug 16 2018
  • 3:29 PM » California: "Housing market retreats", Inventory up 11.9% YoY
    Published Thu, Aug 16 2018 3:29 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The CAR reported today: California's housing market retreats for third straight month as affordability crunch dampens demand California's housing market backpedaled in July on an annual basis for the third consecutive month as higher interest rates and rising home prices eroded housing affordability and dampened demand, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today. Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 406,920 units in July, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2018 if sales maintained the July pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales. July's sales figure was down 0.9 percent from the revised 410,800 level in June and down 3.4 percent compared with home sales in July 2017 of 421,460. "In the midst of the peak home-buying season, high home prices and rising interest rates combined to crimp housing affordability, which in turn is subduing home sales," said C.A.R. President Steve White. "Some of the reluctance by buyers appears to be driven by fears that the market may be peaking. Additionally, the lack of a federal tax incentive for homeownership could be at play given that much of the weakness is in the lower-priced, first-time buyer segment of the market." "While home sales continued to decline in recent months, the softening of the market is more indicative of a market shift rather than a major market correction," said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. "Despite the slowdown, there were some silver linings in the market in July. For example, homes priced between $500,000 and $1 million posted modest gains of about 5 percent in July thanks...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:29 PM » Global stocks, emerging market currencies rise on planned U.S.-China trade talks
    Published Thu, Aug 16 2018 3:29 PM by Reuters
    U.S. stocks and emerging market currencies rebounded on Thursday after China said it will hold trade talks with the United States later in August and Turkey's lira continued its recovery.
  • 2:16 PM » Townhouse Construction Surges
    Published Thu, Aug 16 2018 2:16 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    According to NAHB analysis of the most recent Census data of Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design, townhouse construction posted significant gains during the second quarter of 2018. Townhouse construction is set for further expansion given the demographics of renters entering the for-sale market, as well as ongoing land constraints and the growth of demand for walkable neighborhoods. Over the... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 2:16 PM » A New Home for $90000? Manufactured Housing Is Making a Comeback
    Published Thu, Aug 16 2018 2:16 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg A New Home for $90000? Manufactured Housing Is Making a Comeback Bloomberg While others walked away from manufactured homes, Don Glisson Jr. stuck around. He's seen the industry's ups and downs in his 36 years working at Triad Financial Services, the third-biggest lender to buyers of factory-made houses in the U.S. The ... and more »
  • 11:41 AM » Senate Banking Committee schedules August 23 vote on Kraninger nomination
    Published Thu, Aug 16 2018 11:41 AM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    According to media sources, the Senate Banking Committee has rescheduled a vote on President Trump's nomination of Kathy Kraninger to serve as CFPB Director for August 23. There is little doubt that the Committee will approve Ms. Kraninger. It remains unclear, however, whether and when the full Senate will consider her nomination. We continue to... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 11:00 AM » MBA: Mortgage Delinquency Rate decreased in Q2
    Published Thu, Aug 16 2018 11:00 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the MBA: Mortgage Delinquencies Down in 2nd Quarter of 2018 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties fell to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.36 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the second quarter of 2018. The delinquency rate was down 27 basis points from the previous quarter, but was up 12 basis points from one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started dropped four basis points from the last quarter to 0.24 percent, its lowest level since the second quarter of 1987. "We continue to see improvement in the overall mortgage delinquency rate as the impact of the hurricanes from one year ago lessens , particularly for conventional loans," according to Marina Walsh, Vice President of Industry Analysis at MBA. "Among the various loan types, the delinquency rate for conventional loans was two basis points lower than one year ago, prior to the hurricanes. While delinquencies for both FHA and VA loans were up from one year ago, they were improved over the previous quarter." ... Mortgage delinquencies dropped across all stages of delinquency in the second quarter of 2018 compared to the first quarter of 2018. The 30-day delinquency rate dropped two basis points from the previous quarter, while the 60-day and 90-day delinquency buckets dropped by eight and 18 basis points respectively. ... The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the second quarter was 1.05 percent, down 11 basis points from the first quarter of 2018 and 24 basis points lower than one year ago. This was the lowest foreclosure inventory rate since the third quarter of 2006. ... The serious delinquency rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:10 AM » Erdogan, Macron vow to boost economic ties: Turkish presidential source
    Published Thu, Aug 16 2018 10:10 AM by Reuters
    Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan and French President Emmanuel Macron spoke by phone on Thursday and stressed the importance of developing economic and trade ties and boosting bilateral investment, a Turkish presidential source said.
  • 9:22 AM » Housing Starts at 1.168 Million Annual Rate in July
    Published Thu, Aug 16 2018 9:22 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,168,000 . This is 0.9 percent above the revised June estimate of 1,158,000, but is 1.4 percent below the July 2017 rate of 1,185,000. Single-family housing starts in July were at a rate of 862,000; this is 0.9 percent above the revised June figure of 854,000. The July rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 303,000. Building Permits: Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in July were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,311,000. This is 1.5 percent above the revised June rate of 1,292,000 and is 4.2 percent above the July 2017 rate of 1,258,000. Single-family authorizations in July were at a rate of 869,000; this is 1.9 percent above the revised June figure of 853,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 410,000 in July. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years. Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) increased slightly in July compared to June.   Multi-family starts were down 12% year-over-year in July. Multi-family is volatile month-to-month, and  has been mostly moving sideways the last few years.  This is the bottom of the range. Single-family starts (blue) increased in July, and were up 2.7% year-over-year. The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968.  The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then - after moving sideways for a couple of years - housing is now recovering (but still historically fairly low). Total housing starts in July were well below expectations, and starts for May and June were both revised down. I'll have more later ...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:00 AM » Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 212,000
    Published Thu, Aug 16 2018 9:00 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The DOL reported : In the week ending August 11, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 212,000 , a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 213,000 to 214,000. The 4-week moving average was 215,500, an increase of 1,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 214,250 to 214,500. emphasis added The previous week was revised up. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims increased to 215,500. This was lower than the consensus forecast. The low level of claims suggest few layoffs.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:42 AM » You'll Never Guess Where Homeowners Are Moving the Most, Really
    Published Thu, Aug 16 2018 8:42 AM by www.realtor.com
    You'll Never Guess Where Homeowners Are Moving the Most, Really
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:03 AM » China and US will hold the next round of trade talks in late August
    Published Thu, Aug 16 2018 8:03 AM by CNBC
    A Chinese delegation will travel to the United States for trade talks in late August, China's Ministry of Commerce said on Thursday.
  • Wed, Aug 15 2018
  • 3:22 PM » Trump might get his slowdown in rate hikes, but for the wrong reason
    Published Wed, Aug 15 2018 3:22 PM by CNBC
    Among the unintended consequences from President Donald Trump's trade war is that it could cause the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of its interest rate hikes. While Trump has spoken out against the central bank's policy tightening and might be pleased if it stops raising interest rates sooner than expected, the move would be for the wrong reason, namely a slowing economy.
  • 1:47 PM » 3 myths about what affects your credit score that FICO wants to clear up for you
    Published Wed, Aug 15 2018 1:47 PM by CNBC
    A vice president at FICO sheds some light on what does and does not actually affect your credit score.
  • 11:43 AM » U.S. targets Chinese and Russian firms with North Korea-related sanctions
    Published Wed, Aug 15 2018 11:43 AM by Reuters
    The United States on Wednesday imposed sanctions on one individual and three entities, including firms based in Russia and China, under a North Korea-related sanctions program.
  • 10:37 AM » Sanctions Risk May Prompt First Russian Rate Hike Since 2014
    Published Wed, Aug 15 2018 10:37 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Sanctions Risk May Prompt First Russian Rate Hike Since 2014 Bloomberg Russia's central bank, one of a handful in Europe to cut interest rates this year, could increasingly consider a hike after the ruble slumped following the latest U.S. sanctions and the risk of more to come. The currency's worst week since the 2015 oil ... and more »
  • 10:07 AM » Homebuilder sentiment falls to the lowest point in almost a year as affordability concerns intensify
    Published Wed, Aug 15 2018 10:07 AM by CNBC
    While sentiment is still relatively high, builders are increasingly concerned over rising home prices and material costs.
  • 9:40 AM » Industrial Production Increased 0.1% in July
    Published Wed, Aug 15 2018 9:40 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in July after rising at an average pace of 0.5 percent over the previous five months. Manufacturing production increased 0.3 percent, the output of utilities moved down 0.5 percent, and, after posting five consecutive months of growth, the index for mining declined 0.3 percent. At 108.0 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 4.2 percent higher in July than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector was unchanged in July at 78.1 percent , a rate that is 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2017) average. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up 11.4 percentage points from the record low set in June 2009 (the series starts in 1967). Capacity utilization at 78.1% is 1.7% below the average from 1972 to 2017 and below the pre-recession level of 80.8% in December 2007. Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production increased in July to 107.3. This is 24% above the recession low, and 2% above the pre-recession peak. This was below the consensus forecast, however production for June was revised up.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:43 AM » US retail sales increase strongly in July
    Published Wed, Aug 15 2018 8:43 AM by CNBC
    U.S. retail sales were forecast to edged up 0.1 percent in July, after climbing 0.5 percent a month earlier.
  • 8:20 AM » China vows to control debt despite fresh stimulus for cooling economy
    Published Wed, Aug 15 2018 8:20 AM by Reuters
    China vows to control debt despite fresh stimulus for cooling economy
  • 8:12 AM » Fed May End Taper, No Powell Pause, Argentina Fightback: Eco Day
    Published Wed, Aug 15 2018 8:12 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Fed May End Taper, No Powell Pause, Argentina Fightback: Eco Day Bloomberg America's growing debt pile may force the Federal Reserve to stop shrinking its balance sheet before the year is out; Don't expect turmoil in Turkey and the wider emerging-market selloff to stay the hand of Fed chief Jerome Powell from raising interest ...
  • Tue, Aug 14 2018
  • 3:22 PM » California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 3 Percent YoY in July, Inventory up 2% YoY
    Published Tue, Aug 14 2018 3:22 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here are some Bay Area stats from Pacific Union chief economist Selma Hepp: Finally More Bay Area Housing Inventory After 16 Months of Declines • The Bay Area's decline in home sales (single-family and condominiums) improved in July, with only a 3 percent less activity year over year after a 13 percent decline in June. • Inventory finally improved, up by 2 percent, after 16 consecutive months of year-over-year declines. • Inventory above $1 million increased by 17 percent, mostly driven by more homes for sale in Santa Clara and San Mateo counties. • Only Sonoma and Napa counties gained inventory below $1 million, up by 17 percent and by 5 percent respectively • In contrast, San Francisco still lost inventory across all price ranges in July, declining by 14 percent. Contra Costa County saw inventory drop by 5 percent from July 2017.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:52 PM » Earnings optimism, rebound in bank stocks lift Wall Street
    Published Tue, Aug 14 2018 1:52 PM by Reuters
    U.S. stocks rose in a broad rally on Tuesday after three straight days of losses as strong earnings reports boosted optimism and bank shares rebounded after Turkey's currency snapped its three-week slide.
  • 11:56 AM » The best and worst US cities for retirement
    Published Tue, Aug 14 2018 11:56 AM by CNBC
    When it comes to living on a fixed income, where you live matters. Here are the U.S. cities where you will get the most and least for your money.
  • 11:37 AM » NY Fed Q2 Report: "Total Household Debt Rises for 16th Straight Quarter"
    Published Tue, Aug 14 2018 11:37 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NY Fed: Total Household Debt Rises for 16th Straight Quarter he Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, which shows that total household debt increased by $82 billion (0.6%) to $13.29 trillion in the second quarter of 2018 . It was the 16th consecutive quarter with an increase, and the total is now $618 billion higher than the previous peak of $12.68 trillion, from the third quarter of 2008. Further, overall household debt is now 19.2% above the post-financial-crisis trough reached during the second quarter of 2013. The Report is based on data from the New York Fed's Consumer Credit Panel, a nationally representative sample of individual- and household-level debt and credit records drawn from anonymized Equifax credit data. Mortgage balances-the largest component of household debt-rose by $60 billion during the second quarter, to $9.00 trillion. Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) continued their downward trend, declining by $4 billion, to $432 billion. The median credit score of newly originating mortgage borrowers was roughly unchanged, at 760. "Aggregate household debt grew for the 16th consecutive quarter in the second quarter of 2018," said Wilbert van der Klaauw, senior vice president at the New York Fed, "While overall delinquency rates have remained stable at relatively low levels, transition rates into delinquency have fallen noticeably for student debt over the past year, reflecting an improved labor market and increased participation in various income-driven repayment plans." emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Here are two graphs from the report: The first graph shows aggregate consumer debt increased in Q2.  Household debt previously peaked in 2008, and bottomed in Q2 2013. From the NY Fed: Aggregate household debt balances increased in the second quarter of 2018 for the 16th consecutive quarter...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:39 AM » Most Buyers Actively Searching for a Home Have Been Looking for 3+ Months
    Published Tue, Aug 14 2018 10:39 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The Housing Trends Report (HTR) is a research product created by NAHB's Economics team to track prospective home buyers' perceptions about the availability and affordability of homes for-sale in their markets. Results are based on national polls conducted by Morning Consult, but are not seasonally adjusted due to the short time horizon of the series, and therefore caution is advised... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 10:18 AM » CFPB suspending routine supervisory examinations for MLA compliance
    Published Tue, Aug 14 2018 10:18 AM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    On August 10, the New York Times reported that Mick Mulvaney, the CFPB Acting Director, intends to dispense with routine supervisory examinations of creditors for violations of the Military Lending Act (MLA). According to the report, Acting Director Mulvaney has argued in a two-page draft change to the CFPB's policies that “proactive oversight is not... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 9:48 AM » CFPB settles lawsuit against online payday lenders
    Published Tue, Aug 14 2018 9:48 AM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    The CFPB announced that it has settled a lawsuit that it filed in 2014 in a Missouri federal district court alleging that the defendants engaged in unlawful online payday lending schemes. The CFPB had sued Richard Moseley Sr., two other individuals, and a group of interrelated companies, some of which were directly involved in making... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 9:22 AM » Small Business Optimism Index increased in July
    Published Tue, Aug 14 2018 9:22 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB): July 2018 Report: Small Business Optimism Index The Small Business Optimism Index marked its second highest level in the survey's 45-year history at 107.9 , rising to within 0.1 point of the July 1983 record-high of 108. .. Fifty-nine percent reported hiring or trying to hire (down four points), but 52 percent (88 percent of those hiring or trying to hire) reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. Twenty-three percent of owners cited the difficulty of finding qualified workers as their single most important business problem (up two points), one point below the 45-year record high . emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the small business optimism index since 1986. The index increased to 107.9 in July. Note: Usually small business owners complain about taxes and regulations.  However, during the recession, "poor sales" was the top problem. Now the difficulty of finding qualified workers is the top problem.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:31 AM » Risk of no-deal Brexit rising, 'everyone needs to prepare': British foreign minister
    Published Tue, Aug 14 2018 8:31 AM by Reuters
    The risk of a no-deal Brexit has been increasing and the European Union commission needs to change its attitude if a deal is to be reached, British foreign minister Jeremy Hunt said on Tuesday.
  • 8:07 AM » Erdogan says Turkey will boycott U.S. electronics, lira steadies
    Published Tue, Aug 14 2018 8:07 AM by Reuters
    Erdogan says Turkey will boycott U.S. electronics, lira steadies
  • 8:03 AM » Home Depot's second-quarter sales rebound, shares rise
    Published Tue, Aug 14 2018 8:03 AM by Reuters
    Home Depot Inc's second-quarter sales at established stores beat Wall Street forecasts, boosted by a rebound in demand for seasonal merchandise.
  • Mon, Aug 13 2018
  • 5:15 PM » CBO Cuts US Growth Forecast Amid Warnings on Trade Spats
    Published Mon, Aug 13 2018 5:15 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg CBO Cuts US Growth Forecast Amid Warnings on Trade Spats Bloomberg The Congressional Budget Office slightly lowered its forecast for U.S. economic growth for this year, and warned of increasing uncertainty from American plans to widen tariffs. The U.S. economy is projected to expand 3.1 percent this year, down from a ... and more »
  • 5:14 PM » Ben Carson Moves Forward With Push To Change Fair Housing Rule
    Published Mon, Aug 13 2018 5:14 PM by www.npr.org
    HUD Secretary Ben Carson is moving to overhaul an Obama-era rule intended strengthen the 1968 Fair Housing Act and combat housing segregation.
  • 1:12 PM » Treasury's fintech report recommends changes directed at payments
    Published Mon, Aug 13 2018 1:12 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    A portion of the Treasury's report entitled "A Financial System That Creates Economic Opportunities, Nonbank Financials, Fintech, and Innovation," focuses on payments. (See our legal alert for a discussion of other portions of the Treasury's report.) Current payment methods. The report notes four primary core payment systems: credit cards, debit cards, automated clearing house (ACH)... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 1:12 PM » Wall St. slips as Turkey's currency worries hurt bank stocks
    Published Mon, Aug 13 2018 1:12 PM by Reuters
    U.S. stock indexes fell on Monday as a plummeting Turkish lira weighed on shares of big U.S. lenders, but losses on the Nasdaq were limited by high-flying companies such as Apple and Amazon that hit record highs.
  • 11:20 AM » CFPB Issues HMDA File Verification Tool
    Published Mon, Aug 13 2018 11:20 AM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
      The CFPB recently released a File Format Verification Tool for 2018 Home Mortgage Disclosure Act (HMDA) data. As we reported, in October 2015, the CFPB adopted significant changes to the HMDA rules that significantly expanded the amount of information that must be collected and reported. Calendar year 2018 is the first year in which... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 10:24 AM » Fed May Pause in 2019, Providing Boost to EM, Says Dutta
    Published Mon, Aug 13 2018 10:24 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Fed May Pause in 2019, Providing Boost to EM, Says Dutta Bloomberg Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro, discusses the factors that could push the Federal Reserve to pause interest rate hikes and how that would impact emerging markets. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg) ...
  • 9:52 AM » FHA-Backed Loans Accounted For The Majority Of All Non-Conventional Financing In 2017
    Published Mon, Aug 13 2018 9:52 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    NAHB analysis of the 2017 Census Bureau Survey of Construction (SOC) data shows that, nationwide, the share of non-conventional financing in 2017 accounted for less than a third of the market, at 30.8%. The reliance on non-conventional forms of financing varied across the United States, with its share at 35.4% in the South Atlantic and West South Central divisions but... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 9:18 AM » Luxury Home-Price Growth Slows to 5 Percent in the Second Quarter
    Published Mon, Aug 13 2018 9:18 AM by www.redfin.com
    Despite Cooling in Price Growth, High-End Homes Sold Faster Than Ever The post Luxury Home-Price Growth Slows to 5 Percent in the Second Quarter appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 8:22 AM » BOJ should ditch negative rates, yield cap: ex-BOJ executive
    Published Mon, Aug 13 2018 8:22 AM by Reuters
    BOJ should ditch negative rates, yield cap: ex-BOJ executive
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Mortgage Rates:
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