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  • Tue, Sep 17 2019
  • 3:38 PM » Trump says China trade deal could come before U.S. election, or not
    Published Tue, Sep 17 2019 3:38 PM by Reuters
    U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday his administration could seal a deal on trade with China before the U.S. presidential election, or an agreement could be reached the day after U.S. voters go to the polls.
  • 2:10 PM » CAR on California: "Low interest rates boost California housing market"
    Published Tue, Sep 17 2019 2:10 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The CAR reported: Low interest rates boost California housing market as median home price sets another record, C.A.R. reports The lowest mortgage interest rates in nearly three years helped jump start California's housing market to post the first year-over-year sales gain and highest sales level in 15 months, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today. Fueled by mortgage interest rates at near-three-year lows, California's housing market recorded a second consecutive year-over-year sales increase while the median home price reached a new high, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today. Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 406,100 units in August, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2019 if sales maintained the August pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales. August's sales figure was down 1.3 percent from the 411,630 level in July and up 1.6 percent from home sales in August 2018 of 399,600. While cumulative sales through the first eight months of the year were down from last year, the pace of decline has improved significantly at -4.1 percent since the -12.5 percent recorded in January. "Housing demand has exhibited signs of improvement in recent months as lower rates continued to reduce the cost of borrowing for home buyers," said C.A.R. President Jared Martin. "However, buyers remain cautious, and many are reluctant to jump in because of the economic and market uncertainty that continue to linger, and that is keeping growth subdued despite significantly lower rates." ... After 15 straight months of year-over-year increases, active listing fell 8.9 percent from...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:15 PM » Repo Squeeze Threatens to Spill Over Into Funding Markets - Bloomberg
    Published Tue, Sep 17 2019 12:15 PM by Bloomberg
    Repo Squeeze Threatens to Spill Over Into Funding Markets    Bloomberg What started out as a funding shortage in a key U.S. money market is now making it more costly to get hold of dollars globally.
  • 12:11 PM » Trump's Fed pick, Shelton, calls for Fed coordination with White House
    Published Tue, Sep 17 2019 12:11 PM by Reuters
    Judy Shelton, U.S. President Donald Trump's pick to fill a vacant seat at the Federal Reserve, downplayed the independence of the central bank on Tuesday and called on the Fed to work more closely with the White House, an approach that would upend how it currently conducts monetary policy.
  • 10:21 AM » U.S. manufacturing production rebounds; trend still weak
    Published Tue, Sep 17 2019 10:21 AM by Reuters
    U.S. manufacturing output increased more than expected in August, boosted by a surge in machinery and primary metals production, but the outlook for factories remains weak against the backdrop of trade tensions and slowing global economies.
  • 10:02 AM » Oil price jump won't hit US consumer spending, market bull Tony Dwyer predicts
    Published Tue, Sep 17 2019 10:02 AM by CNBC
    Canaccord Genuity's Tony Dwyer says Americans are spending less than ever on their fuel needs.
  • 9:17 AM » Facebook Says Central Banks Have Nothing to Fear From Libra
    Published Tue, Sep 17 2019 9:17 AM by Bloomberg
    Facebook Says Central Banks Have Nothing to Fear From Libra    Bloomberg Facebook Inc. is once again defending Libra -- this time against fears that the envisioned cryptocurrency could replace sovereign currencies from the U.S. dollar ...
  • 8:05 AM » Atlanta Startup PadSplit Sees High Demand for Low-Cost Housing
    Published Tue, Sep 17 2019 8:05 AM by Bloomberg
    Atlanta Startup PadSplit Sees High Demand for Low-Cost Housing    Bloomberg Rentals with single-room occupancies, once a staple of urban housing, were largely zoned out of U.S. cities decades ago. An Atlanta startup called PadSplit ...
  • 8:04 AM » Divided Fed set to cut interest rates this week, but then what?
    Published Tue, Sep 17 2019 8:04 AM by Reuters
    Deep disagreements within the Federal Reserve over the economic outlook and how the U.S. central bank should respond will not stop policymakers from cutting interest rates at a two-day meeting that begins on Tuesday.
  • 8:03 AM » Draghi's QE Triumph Hinged on ECB Colleagues From Tiny Economies
    Published Tue, Sep 17 2019 8:03 AM by Bloomberg
    Draghi's QE Triumph Hinged on ECB Colleagues From Tiny Economies    Bloomberg Mario Draghi's controversial push to restart bond purchases counted on the support of European Central Bank policy makers who might never have expected to ...
  • Mon, Sep 16 2019
  • 3:50 PM » Expectations suddenly are rising that the Fed might not cut interest rates this week
    Published Mon, Sep 16 2019 3:50 PM by CNBC
    Traders in the fed funds futures market on Monday were pricing in a 34% chance that the Fed will stay put on rates.
  • 3:48 PM » Millennials Are Resorting to This Questionable Tactic to Buy Their First Homes
    Published Mon, Sep 16 2019 3:48 PM by www.realtor.com
    Challenged by the high cost of living, home buyers in their 20s and 30s are "having to be very creative" to come up with down payment money, an expert says. The post Millennials Are Resorting to This Questionable Tactic to Buy Their First Homes appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 3:47 PM » Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Won't Go to Market Until End of 2020, FHFA Director Says - Bloomberg Video
    Published Mon, Sep 16 2019 3:47 PM by Bloomberg
    Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Won't Go to Market Until End of 2020, FHFA Director Says    Bloomberg Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Mark Calabria discusses the outlook for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac with Bloomberg's Vonnie Quinn on "Bloomberg ...
  • 1:03 PM » Bet on a bond bounce, says top technician
    Published Mon, Sep 16 2019 1:03 PM by CNBC
    Treasury yields surged through last week, but Cornerstone Macro's Carter Worth says this might be as good as it gets.
  • 11:52 AM » ECB Can Do QE for Extended Time Before Limits Hit, Lane Says
    Published Mon, Sep 16 2019 11:52 AM by Bloomberg
    ECB Can Do QE for Extended Time Before Limits Hit, Lane Says    Bloomberg The European Central Bank has the scope to buy bonds as part of its monetary stimulus for quite a while before hitting self-imposed limits, according to its chief ...
  • 11:26 AM » U.S. envoy tells U.N. Security Council indications Iran behind Saudi oil attacks
    Published Mon, Sep 16 2019 11:26 AM by Reuters
    U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Kelly Craft told the Security Council on Monday that emerging information on attacks on Saudi oil facilities "indicates that responsibility lies with Iran" and that there is no evidence the attack came from Yemen.
  • 11:00 AM » Hotels: Some Analyis of Short Term Rentals; Occupancy Rate Decreased Year-over-year
    Published Mon, Sep 16 2019 11:00 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    First, some analysis from HotelNewsNow on the impact of short term rentals on hotels: The effects of maturing short-term rentals on US hotels From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 7 September The U.S. hotel industry reported negative year-over-year results in the three key performance metrics during the week of 1-7 September 2019, according to data from STR. In comparison with the week of 2-8 September 2018, the industry recorded the following: • Occupancy: -1.1% to 61.0% • Average daily rate (ADR): -1.0% to US$121.37 • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): -2.1% at US$73.97 Reflective of the anticipation of Hurricane Dorian's landfall, Miami/Hialeah, Florida, reported the steepest decline in RevPAR (-27.0% to US$60.47), due primarily to the largest drop in occupancy (-20.8% to 47.6%). The market registered the second-largest decrease in ADR (-7.9% to US$127.12). Orlando, Florida, experienced the only other double-digit decline in occupancy (-14.8% to 51.9%) and the third-largest decrease in RevPAR (-13.7% to US$51.13). emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2019, dash light blue is 2018 (record year), blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year probably since the Great Depression for hotels). Occupancy has been solid in 2019, and close to-date compared to the previous 4 years. However occupancy will be lower this year than in 2018 (the record year). Seasonally, the 4-week average of the occupancy rate will now move sideways until the Fall business travel season. Data Source: STR, Courtesy of HotelNewsNow.com
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:05 AM » EU's Juncker to PM Johnson: Britain must make proposals to replace backstop
    Published Mon, Sep 16 2019 10:05 AM by Reuters
    European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker told British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Monday he must present workable proposals to replace the Brexit backstop in their stalled divorce deal, which the executive said had still not been made.
  • 9:30 AM » Saudi Arabia shuts pipeline to Bahrain after oil outage: trade sources
    Published Mon, Sep 16 2019 9:30 AM by Reuters
    Saudi Arabia has shut down its crude oil pipeline to Bahrain after attacks on Saudi oil facilities, two trade sources told Reuters on Monday.
  • 8:58 AM » Trump says US ‘locked and loaded' after attack on Saudi oil supply
    Published Mon, Sep 16 2019 8:58 AM by CNBC
    Trump says US 'locked and loaded' after attack on Saudi oil supply
  • 8:42 AM » NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity was little changed in New York State"
    Published Mon, Sep 16 2019 8:42 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business activity was little changed in New York State, according to firms responding to the September 2019 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index edged down three points to 2.0. New orders were marginally higher than last month, and shipments grew modestly. Delivery times were steady, and inventories increased. Employment levels expanded, while the average workweek held steady. ... After spending three months in negative territory, the index for number of employees rose to 9.7 , pointing to an increase in employment levels, while the average workweek index came in at 1.7, indicating little change in hours worked. Indexes assessing the six-month outlook suggested that optimism about future conditions waned. The index for future business conditions fell twelve points to 13.7. emphasis added This was lower than the consensus forecast.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:05 AM » Ron Paul: US interest rates are going negative, and the Fed can't stop it
    Published Mon, Sep 16 2019 8:05 AM by CNBC
    Former presidential candidate Ron Paul is warning negative interest rates will crush the global economy.
  • 8:04 AM » Facebook is reportedly meeting with the Fed and other central banks to discuss libra
    Published Mon, Sep 16 2019 8:04 AM by CNBC
    Libra representatives are in Switzerland to meet with officials from 26 global central banks, according to a report.
  • Fri, Sep 13 2019
  • 3:25 PM » White House to roll out tax cut plan mid-2020
    Published Fri, Sep 13 2019 3:25 PM by Reuters
    The Trump administration plans to unveil a tax cut plan in mid-2020, a top White House adviser said on Friday, saying it would be targeted to giving significant relief to the middle class.
  • 3:06 PM » ECB Dispute Goes Public as Governors Spar Over Draghi's QE Move
    Published Fri, Sep 13 2019 3:06 PM by Bloomberg
    ECB Dispute Goes Public as Governors Spar Over Draghi's QE Move    Bloomberg European Central Bank policy makers took their spat over quantitative easing public, airing arguments that caused an unprecedented schism this week over the ...
  • 2:19 PM » Treasuries Dive, Sending 10-Year Yield to Highest in Six Weeks
    Published Fri, Sep 13 2019 2:19 PM by Bloomberg
    Treasuries Dive, Sending 10-Year Yield to Highest in Six Weeks    Bloomberg Treasuries extended their September tumble, sending the benchmark 10-year yield to its highest level since early August, amid stronger-than-expected U.S. ...
  • 1:04 PM » Q3 GDP Forecasts: Around 1.5% to 2.0%
    Published Fri, Sep 13 2019 1:04 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From Merrill Lynch: 3Q and 2Q GDP tracking remain at 2.0% qoq saar. [Sept 13 estimate] emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: Following this morning's data, we boosted our Q3 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +2.0% (qoq ar). [Sept 13 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.6% for 2019:Q3 and 1.1% for 2019:Q4. [Sept 13 estimate]. And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2019 is 1.8 percent on September 13, down from 1.9 percent on September 11. [Sept 13 estimate] CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be around 1.5% to 2.0% annualized in Q3.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:38 PM » US-China Trade: Is a Mini-Deal Possible?
    Published Fri, Sep 13 2019 12:38 PM by Bloomberg
    US-China Trade: Is a Mini-Deal Possible?    Bloomberg Bloomberg's Michael McKee examines moves made by the United States and China to ease tensions before the two sides resume trade talks. He speaks on ...
  • 12:00 PM » Sacramento Housing in August: Sales Down 6.5% YoY, Active Inventory DOWN 22% YoY
    Published Fri, Sep 13 2019 12:00 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From SacRealtor.org: Median sale price, sales volume decrease for August August ended with 1,567 sales, a 7.4% decrease from the 1,693 sales last month. Compared to the same month last year (1,676), the current figure is down 6.5% . ... The Active Listing Inventory increased 1.4% from 2,425 to 2,460 units. The Months of Inventory increased from 1.4 to 1.6 Months. This figure represents the amount of time (in months) it would take for the current rate of sales to deplete the total active listing inventory. [Note: Compared to August 2018, inventory is down 22.3% ] . ... The Median DOM (days on market) increased from 11 to 12 and the Average DOM increased from 23 to 25. "Days on market" represents the days between the initial listing of the home as "active" and the day it goes "pending." Of the 1,567 sales this month, 74.5% (1,167) were on the market for 30 days or less and 89.8% (1,407) were on the market for 60 days or less. emphasis added 1) Overall sales decreased to 1,567 in August, down from 1,676 in August 2018. Sales were down 7.4% from July 2019 (previous month), and down 6.5% from August 2018. 2) Active inventory was at 2,460, down from 3,167 in August 2018. That is down 22.3% year-over-year.  This is the fourth consecutive YoY decline following 20 months of YoY increases in inventory. This is a market that didn't pickup in August, even with the recent decline in mortgage rates.  However, most of the decline in mortgage rates were in August, and sales are reported at the close of escrow, so we will probably see a pickup in coming months.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:05 AM » This was the worst week for mortgage rates in 3 years – and it may be just the beginning
    Published Fri, Sep 13 2019 11:05 AM by CNBC
    The average rate on the 30-year fixed is now 13 basis points higher than it was on Monday and 29 basis points higher than its last low on September 4th, according to Mortgage News Daily.
  • 10:07 AM » Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Files Complaint Alleging Defendants Engaged in Unlawful Conduct in Connection with Mortgage Assistance Relief Services
    Published Fri, Sep 13 2019 10:07 AM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    On September 6, 2019, the Bureau filed a complaint in federal court in the Central District of California against Certified Forensic Loan Auditors, LLC (CFLA) and Andrew Lehman (Lehman) in connection with their offering, advertising, marketing, and selling of purported financial advisory and mortgage assistance relief services, and against Michael Carrigan (Carrigan), who was CFLA's... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 9:45 AM » U.S. retail sales increase solidly in boost to economy
    Published Fri, Sep 13 2019 9:45 AM by Reuters
    U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in August, pointing to solid consumer spending that should continue to support a moderate pace of economic growth.
  • 9:19 AM » Exurbs Lead Apartment Construction Gains in the Second Quarter
    Published Fri, Sep 13 2019 9:19 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The second quarter of 2019's recent permit data shed new light on NAHB's Home Building Geography Index (HBGI), not only in manufacturing, which is its newest cut, but also in its first vein of analysis, a population density-based delineation of all the counties in the U.S., known as regions. New permits for multifamily dwellings have historically been the highest in... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:54 AM » Retail Sales increased 0.4% in August
    Published Fri, Sep 13 2019 8:54 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    On a monthly basis, retail sales increased 0.4 percent from July to August (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 4.1 percent from August 2018. From the Census Bureau report : Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for August 2019, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $526.1 billion, an increase of 0.4 percent from the previous month, and 4.1 percent above August 2018 . emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales ex-gasoline were up 0.5% in August. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 4.5% on a YoY basis. The increase in August was slightly above expectations. Sales in June and July were revised up.  Overall a solid report.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:10 AM » China adds US agricultural products to tariff exemptions ahead of trade talks
    Published Fri, Sep 13 2019 8:10 AM by CNBC
    China plans to exclude American farm goods including soybeans from tariffs, the latest move to ease trade tensions before the two countries restart trade talks next month.
  • 8:06 AM » Fed Seen Cutting Rates Twice More in 2019 Before Holding Steady
    Published Fri, Sep 13 2019 8:06 AM by Bloomberg
    Fed Seen Cutting Rates Twice More in 2019 Before Holding Steady    Bloomberg U.S. central bankers will trim interest rates by a quarter percentage point next week, and again in December, before leaving the target range for their benchmark ...
  • 8:05 AM » QE infinity? Economists believe that Europe's bond buying could run for years
    Published Fri, Sep 13 2019 8:05 AM by CNBC
    The shape and size of the European Central Bank's new bond-buying program caught market participants off guard, with some now predicting it'll be years until the euro zone is back to anything approaching normality.
  • Thu, Sep 12 2019
  • 5:36 PM » HUD Secretary Ben Carson cleared in watchdog's probe of $31,000 dining room set purchase
    Published Thu, Sep 12 2019 5:36 PM by CNBC
    The watchdog's spokesperson highlighted the fact that the watchdog's report makes no recommendations to HUD, since it found no evidence of misconduct.
  • 4:38 PM » Jeffrey Gundlach Says U.S. on Pre-Election ‘Recession Watch' - Bloomberg
    Published Thu, Sep 12 2019 4:38 PM by Bloomberg
    Jeffrey Gundlach Says U.S. on Pre-Election 'Recession Watch'    Bloomberg The likelihood of U.S. recession before the 2020 election has grown, based on changes in the Treasury yield curve, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, the billionaire ...
  • 2:40 PM » Yellen Expects Fed to ‘Do More' to Keep U.S. Economy on Track - Bloomberg
    Published Thu, Sep 12 2019 2:40 PM by Bloomberg
    Yellen Expects Fed to 'Do More' to Keep U.S. Economy on Track    Bloomberg Former Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said that while the U.S. economy was in a good place, threats to the outlook have increased and the central bank ...
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