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  • Mon, Jun 1 2020
  • 2:37 PM » U.S. stocks gain as signs of recovery offset protests, economic worries
    Published Mon, Jun 01 2020 2:37 PM by Reuters
    Wall Street stocks posted modest gains on Monday as signs suggesting the U.S. economy may be on the road to recovery helped soothe jitters over increasingly violent social unrest and rising U.S.-China tensions.
  • 1:33 PM » 'Lemon' or not, Trump stuck with Phase 1 China trade deal for now
    Published Mon, Jun 01 2020 1:33 PM by Reuters
    U.S. President Donald Trump has little choice but to stick with his Phase 1 China trade deal for now despite his anger at Beijing over the coronavirus pandemic, new Hong Kong security rules, and dwindling hopes China can meet U.S. goods purchase targets, people familiar with his administration's deliberations say.
  • 1:08 PM » Zillow Case-Shiller April Forecast: Still Showing Increasing YoY Price Gains
    Published Mon, Jun 01 2020 1:08 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Case-Shiller house price indexes for March were released last week. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Matthew Speakman at Zillow: March Case-Shiller Results and April Forecast: Housing Maintains its Strength The strong buyer demand heading into this crisis has held fairly steady in the months since the outbreak, as record-low mortgage rates and inventory levels have maintained competition in the markets and placed upward pressure on home prices. So much remains uncertain - including the longer-term path for home prices - but for now, competition for homes is holding strong and keeping prices afloat. Annual growth in April as reported by Case-Shiller is expected to accelerate in the 10- and 20-city indices, and stay steady in the national index. S&P Dow Jones Indices is expected to release data for the April S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices on Tuesday, June 30. emphasis added The Zillow forecast is for the year-over-year change for the Case-Shiller National index to be at 4.4% in April, the same as 4.4% in March. The Zillow forecast is for the 20-City index to be up 4.2% YoY in April from 3.9% in March, and for the 10-City index to increase to 3.7% YoY compared to 3.4% YoY in March.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:37 PM » Denver Was Booming Before the Coronavirus Pandemic. Now It Hopes to Bounce Back
    Published Mon, Jun 01 2020 12:37 PM by www.realtor.com
    The Mile High City may show whether cities that outperformed during the longest expansion in U.S. history are better cushioned to navigate a recovery from the coronavirus-related economic crash. The post Denver Was Booming Before the Coronavirus Pandemic. Now It Hopes to Bounce Back appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 10:46 AM » Construction spending falls less than expected
    Published Mon, Jun 01 2020 10:46 AM by Reuters
    U.S. construction spending fell less than expected in April even as other sectors of the economy buckle under the COVID-19 crisis.
  • 10:22 AM » ISM Manufacturing index Increased to 43.1 in May
    Published Mon, Jun 01 2020 10:22 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The ISM manufacturing index indicated contraction in May. The PMI was at 43.1% in May, up from 41.5% in April. The employment index was at 32.1%, up from 27.5% last month, and the new orders index was at 31.8%, up from 27.1%. From the Institute for Supply Management: May 2020 Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business® Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in May , and the overall economy returned to expansion after one month of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: " The May PMI® registered 43.1 percent , up 1.6 percentage points from the April reading of 41.5 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy after April's contraction, which ended a period of 131 consecutive months of growth. The New Orders Index registered 31.8 percent , an increase of 4.7 percentage points from the April reading of 27.1 percent. The Production Index registered 33.2 percent, up 5.7 percentage points compared to the April reading of 27.5 percent. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 38.2 percent, an increase of 0.4 percentage point compared to the April reading of 37.8 percent. The Employment Index registered 32.1 percent , an increase of 4.6 percentage points from the April reading of 27.5 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 68 percent; though down 8 percentage points from the April figure of 76 percent, this high reading elevated the composite PMI®. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Here is a long term graph of the ISM manufacturing index. This was close to expectations of 43.0%, but the readings for new orders and employment were even worse than the headline. This suggests manufacturing contracted further in May.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:46 AM » How the coronavirus pandemic is shaking retirement confidence across generations
    Published Mon, Jun 01 2020 9:46 AM by CNBC
    The recent economic downturn has prompted more workers to question whether they will retire comfortably, according to a survey. And they're more likely to dip into those savings to cover near-term expenses.
  • 8:42 AM » 52% of Builders Used Incentives to Bolster Sales in May 2020
    Published Mon, Jun 01 2020 8:42 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index survey conducted in May 2020 reveals that 48% of single-family builders are not using incentives to bolster sales and/or limit cancellations. This of course implies that slightly more than half, 52%, are using some kind of incentive to achieve that objective. What specific incentives are they using? Figure 1 shows the complete list, but... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:21 AM » Trump, attorney general to meet as U.S. cities smolder amid protests
    Published Mon, Jun 01 2020 8:21 AM by Reuters
    U.S. President Donald Trump was scheduled to meet with his top law enforcement officer behind closed doors on Monday as cities nationwide awoke from a smoldering weekend of violent protests over race and policing in the midst of the coronavirus pandemic.
  • 8:03 AM » Factbox: What's new with the Fed's 2020 bank stress tests?
    Published Mon, Jun 01 2020 8:03 AM by Reuters
    The Federal Reserve's bank stress tests will look significantly different in 2020, thanks to regulatory changes and the dramatic economic turmoil brought on by coronavirus pandemic.
  • Fri, May 29 2020
  • 4:49 PM » House bill gives small businesses more time to use PPP loans and lets them spend less on payroll
    Published Fri, May 29 2020 4:49 PM by CNBC
    The Paycheck Protection Program Flexibility Act, which passed in the House of Representatives on Thursday, eases loan forgiveness rules for small-business owners.
  • 4:35 PM » Fannie Mae: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate Increased in April
    Published Fri, May 29 2020 4:35 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Fannie Mae reported that the Single-Family Serious Delinquency increased to 0.70% in April, from 0.66% in March. The serious delinquency rate is down from 0.72% in April 2019. IMPORTANT: These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".  So it will take three months for the impact of COVID-19 to show up in this series. The Fannie Mae serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 5.59%. Click on graph for larger image By vintage , for loans made in 2004 or earlier (2% of portfolio), 2.64% are seriously delinquent (up from 2.48% in March). For loans made in 2005 through 2008 (3% of portfolio), 4.41% are seriously delinquent (up from 4.11%), For recent loans, originated in 2009 through 2018 (95% of portfolio), only 0.38% are seriously delinquent (up from 0.35%). So Fannie is still working through a few poor performing loans from the bubble years. With COVID-19, this rate will increase significantly in a few months (it takes time since these are mortgages three months or more past due). Note: Freddie Mac reported earlier.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:04 PM » Too little or too much money? No payment at all? Here's what the IRS has said about inaccurate stimulus payments
    Published Fri, May 29 2020 3:04 PM by CNBC
    Some Americans who are eager to receive their stimulus money are wondering why the payments were less than they expected. Others have received checks that seemed to be too large. Here's what we know now about how the IRS plans to handle those situations.
  • 2:10 PM » Amid the Covid-19 Crisis, Single-Family Homes May Be the Smart Investment
    Published Fri, May 29 2020 2:10 PM by www.realtor.com
    JamesBrey/Getty ImagesThe coronavirus pandemic has many Americans rethinking the kind of lifestyle they want. Apartment living in central, densely populated urban areas is losing its appeal as residents are subject The post Amid the Covid-19 Crisis, Single-Family Homes May Be the Smart Investment appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 1:36 PM » Housing Could Help Lead the Post-Covid Economic Recovery
    Published Fri, May 29 2020 1:36 PM by www.jchs.harvard.edu
    HOUSING COULD HELP LEAD THE POST-COVID ECONOMIC RECOVERY
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.jchs.harvard.edu
  • 11:49 AM » April Personal Income Up 10.5% Due to CARES
    Published Fri, May 29 2020 11:49 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The most recent data release from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) showed that personal income surged in April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of $20,674 billion. The 10.5% increase in personal income was largely the effects of Federal Pandemic Response Programs. Among the $360.5 billion increase in unemployment insurance, there were $132.0 billion in Pandemic Unemployment Compensation... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 11:39 AM » Powell says the Fed is 'days away' from making the first loans in the Main Street lending facility
    Published Fri, May 29 2020 11:39 AM by CNBC
    Powell says the Fed is 'days away' from making the first loans in the Main Street lending facility<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/29/powell-says-the-fed-is-days-away-from-making-the-first-loans-in-the-main-street-lending-facility.html
  • 10:29 AM » Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments
    Published Fri, May 29 2020 10:29 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    In the Personal Income & Outlays report for April, the BEA noted that "Personal income increased $1.97 trillion (10.5 percent) in April". This was due to a large increase in transfer payment. Transfer payments increased by $3 trillion in April. Unemployment insurance increased from $70 billion in March, to $430 billion in April. And "Other" (mostly the CARES Act) increased by $2,600 billion in April. Without the increase in transfer payments, Personal Income in April would have declined by about  6%. A key measure of the health of the economy (Used by NBER in recession dating ) is Real Personal Income less Transfer payments. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows real personal income less transfer payments since 1990. This measure of economic activity decreased 2.8% in March, compared to February, and another 6.3% in April (compared to March).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:57 AM » Most Vulnerable Housing Markets
    Published Fri, May 29 2020 8:57 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The analysis of the American Community Survey (ACS) suggests that renters and young adults under the age of 34 are likely to face higher prolonged unemployment risks as a result of the coronavirus pandemic hitting the labor market. The labor market risks are also uneven across states, with state economies heavily reliant on leisure, entertainment, retail and personal services being... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:45 AM » Personal Income increased 10.5% in April, Spending decreased 13.6%, Core PCE decreased 0.4%
    Published Fri, May 29 2020 8:45 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The BEA released the Personal Income and Outlays report for April: Personal income increased $1.97 trillion (10.5 percent) in April according to estimates released today by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Disposable personal income (DPI) increased $2.13 trillion (12.9 percent) and personal consumption expenditures (PCE) decreased $1.89 trillion (13.6 percent) . Real DPI increased 13.4 percent in April and Real PCE decreased 13.2 percent. The PCE price index decreased 0.5 percent. Excluding food and energy, the PCE price index decreased 0.4 percent. The April PCE price index increased 0.5 percent year-over-year and the April PCE price index, excluding food and energy, increased 1.0 percent year-over-year. The following graph shows real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) through April 2020 (2012 dollars). Note that the y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change . Click on graph for larger image. The dashed red lines are the quarterly levels for real PCE. The increase in personal income was way above expectations,  and the decrease in PCE was below expectations. Note that core PCE inflation was below expectations.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:04 AM » With 'Main Street' in view, Fed weighs risks of job, productivity shocks
    Published Fri, May 29 2020 8:04 AM by Reuters
    U.S. Federal Reserve officials have talked broadly about helping households and firms through the current economic crisis and quickly unleashed trillions of dollars in cash and credit guarantees to build a "bridge" to the post-pandemic world.
  • 8:04 AM » Corporations raise $1 trillion in the bond market after Fed backstop, double the pace of last year
    Published Fri, May 29 2020 8:04 AM by CNBC
    Corporations have already raised more than $1 trillion as they race to replace other debt cheaper and raise cash to weather the recession.
  • Thu, May 28 2020
  • 4:25 PM » Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 50.2% Year-over-year, Slight Increase Week-over-week
    Published Thu, May 28 2020 4:25 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 23 May STR data ending with 23 May showed another small rise from previous weeks in U.S. hotel performance. Year-over-year declines remained significant although not as severe as the levels recorded in April. 17-23 May 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019): • Occupancy: 35.4% (-50.2%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$80.92 (-39.7%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$28.67 (-69.9%) "The steady climb in national occupancy continued, and to no surprise, the highest levels were recorded on Friday and Saturday ahead of Memorial Day," said Jan Freitag, STR's senior VP of lodging insights. "Occupancy gains continue to be led by popular leisure markets like the Florida Panhandle, Mobile, Myrtle Beach and Daytona Beach. We even saw a weekday-to-weekend ADR premium in higher occupancy markets. "What was also noticeable in the week's data was the higher occupancy levels across all classes of hotels. Economy properties continued to lead, but we also saw the higher-priced end of the market up over 20%. Regardless, Upper Upscale occupancy continues to lag the broader industry as meeting demand is still not returning." emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average . Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year probably since the Great Depression for hotels). During 2009 (black line), many hotels were struggling. At this point in the year, the 4-week average in 2009 was 56%. Now it is just at 32%! (The median is 65%). Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 4:25 PM » Miami Real Estate: What it's like Buying a Home During COVID-19
    Published Thu, May 28 2020 4:25 PM by www.redfin.com
    In the wake of the Coronavirus pandemic, the US housing market has experienced increased volatility, and the real estate industry has responded quickly to the abrupt changes by adjusting processes to fit the "new normal" for the time being. Nationwide, the industry has shifted in order to continue doing business and to implement all the … Miami Real Estate: What it's like Buying a Home During COVID-19 Read More » The post Miami Real Estate: What it's like Buying a Home During COVID-19 appeared first on Redfin | Real Estate Tips for Home Buying, Selling & More .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 4:24 PM » Updated COVID-Related Underwriting Guidance from Freddie
    Published Thu, May 28 2020 4:24 PM by Freddie Mac
    This Bulletin provides: Temporary requirements and guidance for Borrowers with qualifying income derived from self-employment Temporary flexibilities for CHOICERenovation℠ Mortgages Delivery requirements for "no cash-out" refinance Mortgages Temporary eligibility requirements related to the purchase of delinquent Mortgages in forbearance
  • 3:27 PM » Small-business loan terms eased under U.S. House-passed bill
    Published Thu, May 28 2020 3:27 PM by Reuters
    The U.S. House of Representatives on Thursday approved legislation increasing the amount of time, to 24 weeks from the current eight weeks, for small businesses to use Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans spurred by the coronavirus outbreak.
  • 3:26 PM » Fed's Kaplan says U.S. economy has bottomed, ties rebound to testing
    Published Thu, May 28 2020 3:26 PM by Reuters
    The U.S. economy has likely bottomed, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan said on Thursday, but a healthy rebound depends on a massive increase in testing so that people feel comfortable resuming traveling, dining out and other pre-crisis activities.
  • 2:05 PM » NY Fed President Williams says U.S. is not 'anywhere near' its limits to run up debt
    Published Thu, May 28 2020 2:05 PM by CNBC
    Even with the federal IOU at $25.6 trillion and counting, the central bank official said there's still plenty of room to spend more.
  • 2:05 PM » Freddie Mac: Mortgage Serious Delinquency Rate increased in April
    Published Thu, May 28 2020 2:05 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Freddie Mac reported that the Single-Family serious delinquency rate in April was 0.64%, up from 0.60% in March. Freddie's rate is down from 0.65% in April 2019. This is the highest serious delinquency rate since last April. Freddie's serious delinquency rate peaked in February 2010 at 4.20%. These are mortgage loans that are "three monthly payments or more past due or in foreclosure".  Click on graph for larger image With COVID-19, this rate will increase significantly in a few months (it takes time since these are mortgage three months or more past due). Note: Fannie Mae will report for April soon.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:04 PM » Millionaires cut spending, postpone big purchases for at least a year
    Published Thu, May 28 2020 2:04 PM by CNBC
    A majority of American millionaires say they plan to spend less this summer than in years past, according to the Q2 CNBC Millionaire Survey. Real estate, new cars and vacations are the expenses they are most likely to put on hold.
  • 1:05 PM » S&P 500 drifts higher on healthcare, tech lift
    Published Thu, May 28 2020 1:05 PM by Reuters
    Wall Street's major indexes rose on Thursday, boosted by gains in healthcare and technology stocks, as investors hoped for a swift economic recovery from a coronavirus-driven economic slump.
  • 11:46 AM » Expanded unemployment benefits for self-employed reach 8 million workers
    Published Thu, May 28 2020 11:46 AM by CNBC
    Expanded unemployment benefits offered through the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program are reaching nearly 8 million Americans, about 25% of all recipients.
  • 11:24 AM » Kansas City Fed: "Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Continued to Decline" in May
    Published Thu, May 28 2020 11:24 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Kansas City Fed: Tenth District Manufacturing Activity Continued to Decline Tenth District manufacturing activity continued to decline, but not as sharply compared to last month's record low. Expectations for future activity rose, but remained slightly negative. Month-over-month price indexes remained negative again in May. Moving forward, District firms expected prices for finished goods to decline and prices for raw materials to increase in the next six months. The month-over-month composite index was -19 in May, up somewhat from the record low of -30 in April , and similar to -17 in March emphasis added This was the last of the regional Fed surveys for May. Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index: Click on graph for larger image. The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through May), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through May) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through April (right axis). The ISM manufacturing index for May will be released on Monday, June 1st. The consensus is for the ISM to increase to 42.5, up from 41.5 in April. Based on these regional surveys, the ISM manufacturing index might even be lower than the consensus in May.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:05 AM » Pending home sales plummet in April, but demand is showing signs of a rebound
    Published Thu, May 28 2020 10:05 AM by CNBC
    April pending home sales see the largest drop in the survey's history, but Realtors are actually upgrading their 2020 forecast.
  • 9:33 AM » Debt balances rise as the debate over extending student loan forgiveness continues in Congress
    Published Thu, May 28 2020 9:33 AM by CNBC
    As the debate over extending student loan forgiveness continues in Congress, this year's crop of high school graduates are taking on more college debt.
  • 8:55 AM » Q1 GDP Revised Down to -5.0% Annual Rate
    Published Thu, May 28 2020 8:55 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BEA: Gross Domestic Product, 1st Quarter 2020 (Second Estimate); Corporate Profits, 1st Quarter 2020 (Preliminary Estimate) Real gross domestic product (GDP) decreased at an annual rate of 5.0 percent in the first quarter of 2020 , according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the decrease in real GDP was 4.8 percent. With the second estimate, a downward revision to private inventory investment was partly offset by upward revisions to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and nonresidential fixed investment. emphasis added Here is a Comparison of Second and Advance Estimates . PCE growth was revised up to -6.8% from -7.6%. Residential investment was revised down from 21.0% to 18.5%. This was slightly below the consensus forecast.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:33 AM » Weekly jobless claims total 2.123 million, vs 2.05 million estimate
    Published Thu, May 28 2020 8:33 AM by CNBC
    First-time claims for unemployment benefits were expected to total 2.05 million last week, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
  • 8:05 AM » U.S. states, cities may snub Fed lending program over high rates
    Published Thu, May 28 2020 8:05 AM by Reuters
    High borrowing costs will limit participation in a $500 billion U.S. Federal Reserve short-term borrowing program set up to address state and city revenue shortfalls due to the economic fallout from the coronavirus outbreak, analysts said.
  • 8:05 AM » If the Fed opts for negative rates, it will need to be a 'Hail Mary,' Standard Chartered says
    Published Thu, May 28 2020 8:05 AM by CNBC
    Should the U.S. Federal Reserve opt to take its benchmark funds rate into negative territory, it will need to "go deeply negative" with a cut of between 50-100 basis points below zero, according to Standard Chartered Bank.
  • 8:03 AM » Forget About Recessionary Real Estate Bargains: Home Prices Are Still Rising
    Published Thu, May 28 2020 8:03 AM by www.realtor.com
    Those hoping the coronavirus-fueled recession will bring another round of bargain-basement home prices are likely out of luck. The post Forget About Recessionary Real Estate Bargains: Home Prices Are Still Rising appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
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