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  • Wed, Feb 14 2018
  • 8:35 AM » US retail sales post biggest decline in 11 months
    Published Wed, Feb 14 2018 8:35 AM by CNBC
    U.S. retail sales unexpectedly fell in January, recording their biggest drop in nearly a year.
  • 8:35 AM » Key indicator shows inflation surged in January
    Published Wed, Feb 14 2018 8:35 AM by CNBC
    The U.S. Consumer Price Index is expected to rise 0.3 percent in January, after edging up 0.2 percent a month earlier.
  • Tue, Feb 13 2018
  • 3:49 PM » Market volatility, budget deficits pose test for Fed's Powell
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 3:49 PM by Reuters
    DAYTON, Ohio (Reuters) - When the Federal Reserve's policy meeting ended last month, U.S. stock indexes were near record highs, market volatility was almost non-existent and policymakers chatted about the calm waters welcoming incoming central bank chief Jerome Powell.
  • 3:48 PM » NY Fed Q4 Report: "Household Debt Increased, Fifth Consecutive Year Of Positive Annual Growth"
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 3:48 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NY Fed: Household Debt Jumps as 2017 Marks the Fifth Consecutive Year Of Positive Annual Growth Since Post-Recession Deleveraging The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit ,which reported that total household debt increased by $193 billion (1.5%) to $13.15 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2017 . This report marks the fifth consecutive year of positive annual household debt growth . There were increases in mortgage, student, auto, and credit card debt (increasing by 1.6%, 1.5%, 0.7% and 3.2% respectively) and another modest decline in home equity line of credit (HELOC) balances (decreasing by 0.9%). The Report is based on data from the New York Fed's Consumer Credit Panel, a nationally representative sample of individual- and household-level debt and credit records drawn from anonymized Equifax credit data. Mortgages are the largest form of household debt and their increase of $139 billion was the most substantial increase seen in several quarters. Unlike overall debt balances, which last year surpassed their previous peak reached in the third quarter of 2008, mortgage balances remain 4.4% below it. The New York Fed issued an accompanying blog post to examine the regional differences in mortgage debt growth since the previous peak. ... Bankruptcy notations decreased for the second consecutive quarter. ... Foreclosure notations remained essentially unchanged at the lowest levels observed in the New York Fed's data . emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Here are two graphs from the report: The first graph shows aggregate consumer debt increased in Q4.  Household debt previously peaked in 2008, and bottomed in Q2 2013. From the NY Fed: Mortgage balances, the largest component of household debt, increased substantially during the fourth quarter. Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports on December 31 stood at $8.88 trillion...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:25 PM » Demographics and GDP: 2% is the new 4%
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 12:25 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Three years ago, I wrote Demographics and GDP: 2% is the new 4% . In that post I pointed out that due to demographics, slower GDP growth should have been expected over the last decade (contrary to political nonsense). Yesterday, Greg Ip at the WSJ noted : Mulvaney: "People thought we were crazy" to forecast 2.3% 2017 growth. "We blew that out of the water." (Referring to John Mulvaney, Director of the Office of Management and Budget). What was real GDP growth in 2017? 2.3% according to the BEA. Too funny.  (Maybe he meant Q4 over Q4, but that was only 2.5% - not exactly blown "out of the water". This give me an excuse to update my graphs from my post three years ago. Overall, we should have been expecting slower growth this decade due to demographics - even without the housing bubble-bust and financial crisis. One simple way to look at the change in GDP is as the change in the labor force, times the change in productivity. If the labor force is growing quickly, GDP will be higher with the same gains in productivity. And the opposite is true. So here is a graph of the year-over-year change in the labor force since 1950 (data from the BLS). Click on graph for larger image The data is noisy - because of changes in population controls and the business cycle - but the pattern is clear as indicated by the dashed red trend line. The labor force has been growing slowly after declining for some time. We could also look at just the prime working age population - I've pointed out before the that prime working age population has started growing again. Now here is a look at GDP for the same period. The GDP data (year-over-year quarterly) is also noisy, and the dashed blue line shows the trend. GDP was high in the early 50s - and early-to-mid 60s because of government spending (Korean and Vietnam wars).  As in example, in 1951, national defense added added 6.5 percentage points to GDP.  Of course we don't want another...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:03 PM » Goldman: "The 2018 Inflation Rebound"
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 12:03 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    A few brief excerpts from a note by Goldman Sachs economist Daan Struyven: The 2018 Inflation Rebound Using our top-down and bottom-up core PCE models, we project that both macroeconomic fundamentals as well as sector-specific factors are likely to push core inflation meaningfully higher this year . ... We highlight three key drivers of the core PCE acceleration to 1.8% by end-2018 in our forecast: a 0.15pp boost from the pass-through from higher energy prices and a weaker dollar, a 0.1-0.15pp lift from a tighter labor market, and a 0.1pp jump from the Verizon effect dropping out. ... We ... now see the risks to our core PCE forecast of 1.8% by end-2018 as moderately tilted to the upside . emphasis added CR Note: The central tendency for core inflation in the December FOMC projections was 1.7% to 1.9%. So this is in line with current FOMC projections, and still below the Fed target of 2%.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:06 AM » Here's where Credit Suisse sees the risk of a bear market for bonds
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 11:06 AM by CNBC
    The downtrend in U.S. Treasury yields of the last several years has been broken, though experts disagree on the tipping point for a bear market.
  • 10:42 AM » Most Buyers Actively Trying to Get a Home Have Been Searching for 3 Months+
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 10:42 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    NAHB regularly conducts national polls of American adults and home buyers in order to understand new trends and preferences in the housing market. This is the third in a series of posts highlighting poll results, as presented during the 2018 International Builders' Show in Orlando, FL. See previous posts on tiny homes and driverless cars. A recent poll revealed that... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 10:33 AM » Powell says Fed will be vigilant for financial stability risks
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 10:33 AM by CNBC
    Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Tuesday the Fed would keep watching for financial stability risks and preserve improvements in regulation.
  • 10:16 AM » Volatile Markets Make Tomorrow's CPI Report a Reason to Worry
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 10:16 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Volatile Markets Make Tomorrow's CPI Report a Reason to Worry Bloomberg Wednesday's report on the U.S. consumer price index will be the most closely watched in recent memory, with investors seeking to understand the recent plunge in the stock and bond markets. They'll probably need to look beyond the main numbers for the ... and more »
  • 10:05 AM » Powell, Remarks at the Ceremonial Swearing-in
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 10:05 AM by Federal Reserve
    Speech At the Federal Reserve Board, Washington, D.C.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Federal Reserve
  • 9:00 AM » Investors cut bond market allocation to 20-year low amid fears of a 'crash'
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 9:00 AM by CNBC
    Fund managers have sliced their bond allocations to the lowest level in 20 years as fears grow that the sector poses the biggest threat to markets.
  • 8:59 AM » Stock market's rout is not impacting the US economic outlook: Cleveland Fed's Mester
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 8:59 AM by CNBC
    The recent market sell-off and jump in volatility will not damage the economy's overall strong prospects, Cleveland Fed president Loretta Mester said.
  • 8:33 AM » CFPB's Tough Monday: Ripped in Budget and Reined in by New Chief
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 8:33 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg CFPB's Tough Monday: Ripped in Budget and Reined in by New Chief Bloomberg The Trump administration's determination to revamp the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau took shape Monday with its acting head pledging to narrow the agency's focus just hours after the White House ripped the regulator in its annual budget proposal ... and more »
  • 8:32 AM » Small-Time Real Estate Investors Team Up for Big-Time Profits
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 8:32 AM by www.realtor.com
    These days, many small real estate investors are working with partners. It makes it easier to buy more expensive properties and spreads the risks. The post Small-Time Real Estate Investors Team Up for Big-Time Profits appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:32 AM » Households Are Borrowing More to Fuel Spending, Wells Fargo Says
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 8:32 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Households Are Borrowing More to Fuel Spending, Wells Fargo Says Bloomberg U.S. households may be borrowing more to fuel their spending as wages grow slowly, according to Wells Fargo & Co. Consumer spending may be rising because Americans are growing more confident, analysts John McElravey and Ryan Brinkoetter wrote in a ... and more »
  • 8:31 AM » The overall U.S. housing market has recovered. But that's not true in every community.
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 8:31 AM by Washington Post
    TOWN SQUARE | While home values are soaring in California, they still are nearly 10 percent below peak in the Washington, D.C., area, according to Zillow.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Washington Post
  • 8:31 AM » Refinancing A Mortgage? You Can Now Count Airbnb Income
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 8:31 AM by www.builderonline.com
    Refinancing A Mortgage? You Can Now Count Airbnb Income
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • 8:30 AM » Early-Stage Mortgage Delinquencies Dip Again in November as Hurricanes' Impact Wanes
    Published Tue, Feb 13 2018 8:30 AM by www.corelogic.com
    Overall Mortgage Delinquency Rate Fell 0.1 Percentage Points Year Over Year Foreclosure Rate Declined 0.2 Percentage Points Year Over Year Transition Rates for 60-Day and 90-Day Delinquency Rose Sharply in Texas and Florida Likely Due to 2017 Hurricanes CoreLogic ® (NYSE: CLGX), a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released its monthly Loan Performance Insights Report which shows that, nationally, 5.1 percent of mortgages were in some stage of delinquency (30 days or more past due including those in foreclosure) in November 2017. This represents a 0.1 percentage point year-over-year decline in the overall delinquency rate compared with November 2016 when it was 5.2 percent. As of November 2017, the foreclosure inventory rate, which measures the share of mortgages in some stage of the foreclosure process, was 0.6 percent, down 0.2 percentage points from 0.8 percent in November 2016. The foreclosure inventory rate has held steady at 0.6 percent since August 2017, the lowest level since June 2007 when it was also at 0.6 percent. This past November's foreclosure inventory rate was the lowest for the month of November in 11 years, since it was also 0.6 percent in November 2006. Measuring early-stage delinquency rates is important for analyzing the health of the mortgage market. To monitor mortgage performance comprehensively, CoreLogic examines all stages of delinquency as well as transition rates, which indicate the percentage of mortgages moving from one stage of delinquency to the next. The rate for early-stage delinquencies, defined as 30-59 days past due, was 2.2 percent in November 2017, down 0.1 percentage points from 2.3 percent in October 2017 and unchanged from 2.2 percent in November 2016. The share of mortgages that were 60-89 days past due in November 2017 was 0.9 percent, unchanged from October 2017 and up from 0.7 percent in November 2016. The serious delinquency rate, reflecting loans 90.....
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.corelogic.com
  • Mon, Feb 12 2018
  • 3:30 PM » Trump Budget Includes Higher Fees for Fannie, Freddie Mortgages
    Published Mon, Feb 12 2018 3:30 PM by Bloomberg
    The Trump Administration has said it wants to get Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac out of government control, but in the meantime it's not being shy about seeking to use revenue from the U.S.-backed mortgage guarantors to reduce the deficit.
  • 1:52 PM » Trump's budget plan may delay future tax refunds
    Published Mon, Feb 12 2018 1:52 PM by CNBC
    The new Trump budget proposal is here, and the White House has an ambitious to-do list for the IRS. Here's what it may mean for your tax refund.
  • 1:52 PM » Port of Long Beach: Record Port Traffic in January 2018
    Published Mon, Feb 12 2018 1:52 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Port of Long Beach: Year Begins With Records in Long Beach The new year brought a raft of records to the Port of Long Beach, where January container volumes reached an all-time high for the month. Workers moved 657,830 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) through the harbor in January, 12.9 percent more than the same month last year. The total marks the first time Long Beach has surpassed 600,000 containers in the month of January. The quick start to 2018 comes after officials recently announced that 2017 was the busiest year in the Port's 107-year history, reaching 7.54 million TEUs. "The pre-Lunar New Year surge is definitely here," said Port of Long Beach Executive Director Mario Cordero, taking note of the upcoming two-week holiday period in Asia, the Port's primary trading partner. "Since this year's holiday begins Feb. 16, we anticipated a busy January and February, as cargo owners seek to get goods shipped ahead of the festivities." CR Notes: The timing of the Chinese New Year always impacts traffic I'll have more on the LA area port traffic once Los Angeles releases their January statistics.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:50 PM » Morgan Stanley: 'One last surge of euphoria' will take market up more than 10% from here
    Published Mon, Feb 12 2018 1:50 PM by CNBC
    A Morgan Stanley strategist thinks equities can surge more than 14 percent from their current levels despite their recent sharp pullback.
  • 12:11 PM » BlackRock's fixed income chief is not ready to say the 30-year bull market in bonds is over
    Published Mon, Feb 12 2018 12:11 PM by CNBC
    The drop in bond prices - and accompanying rise in bond yields - may not be here to stay, says Jeff Rosenberg.
  • 11:52 AM » Trump unveils plan to stimulate infrastructure improvements
    Published Mon, Feb 12 2018 11:52 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump unveiled a long-awaited infrastructure plan on Monday that asks the U.S. Congress to authorize $200 billion over 10 years to stimulate $1.5 trillion in improvements paid for by states, localities and private investors.
  • 11:35 AM » U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau aims for more restraint: memo
    Published Mon, Feb 12 2018 11:35 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will pull back its activities and seek to promote a free market for financial services, according to a memo obtained by Reuters on Monday.
  • 11:16 AM » Ray Dalio: 'Risks of a recession' are rising
    Published Mon, Feb 12 2018 11:16 AM by CNBC
    Ray Dalio says in a LinkedIn blog post the Federal Reserve's response to better than expected economic data may lead to an economic slowdown.
  • 10:52 AM » Here's what a 5 percent mortgage rate would mean to buyers
    Published Mon, Feb 12 2018 10:52 AM by CNBC
    Mortgage rates are at their highest level in four years and could move even higher this week, just as the spring housing market kicks into gear.
  • 10:09 AM » Lawler: Will Average Hourly Earnings Growth Decelerate Over the Next Two Months?
    Published Mon, Feb 12 2018 10:09 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From housing economist Tom Lawler: Will Average Hourly Earnings Growth Decelerate Over the Next Two Months? In its Employment Report for January the BLS reported that average hourly earnings of all private non-farm employees was $26.74 (seasonally adjusted) last month, up 2.9% from a year earlier. This year-over-year gain was up from 2.7% in December and 2.5% in November, and represented the higher YOY increase since May 2009 (though the January YOY gain was only trivially higher than the YOY increase in September of last year (2.832% vs. 2.886%). What few folks have mentioned, however, is that the YOY increase in average hourly earnings for production and non-supervisory workers in the non-farm sector last month was just 2.43%, virtually unchanged from December's YOY gain. Obviously, these data imply that the YOY increase in "supervisory" workers accelerated significantly last month, and in fact that was the case: the YOY increase in average hourly earnings of "supervisory" workers (which is not shown in the report but which can be derived) was 3.9% in January, up from 3.3% in December and 3.0% in November. (See chart below). This YOY increase was the highest "on record" though data are only available back to 2006. On a monthly basis the AHE of supervisory employees jumped by 0.8% (seasonally adjusted) in January and 0.5% in December, resulting in annualized growth over this two month period of 8.0%. Click on graph for larger image. Prior to 2010 the BLS only reported average hourly earnings for production and non-supervisory workers in its monthly release. Since then it has become apparent that the AHE's of supervisory workers are much more volatile than the AHE's of production/non-supervisory employees (the standard deviation of monthly % changes in the former is more than twice as high as the latter). Moreover, "outsized" (significantly above trend) gains in the AHE's of supervisory workers have tended to be...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:51 AM » Employment Rose in Most States in December 2017
    Published Mon, Feb 12 2018 9:51 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 33 states and the District of Columbia, unchanged in two states, and decreased in 15 states in December 2017 compared to November 2017. Year-over-year, 49 states increased employment while two states lost payroll employment during this time. As a result payroll employment nationwide rose in December. The largest... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:29 AM » Who Ordered All the McMansions? 10 Cities Where They're Piled Highest
    Published Mon, Feb 12 2018 8:29 AM by www.realtor.com
    The trend-hunting realtor.com data team set out to find which U.S. metros have the most McMansions. We looked in the 150 largest metros for the percentage of homes that measure at least 3,000 square feet. The post Who Ordered All the McMansions? 10 Cities Where They’re Piled Highest appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:29 AM » Trump budget plan to seek funds for border wall, infrastructure, opioid treatment
    Published Mon, Feb 12 2018 8:29 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - President Donald Trump will unveil his second budget on Monday - seeking to make good on his promise to bolster military spending and requesting funds for infrastructure, construction of a wall along the border with Mexico and opioid treatment programs.
  • 8:22 AM » Futures up more than 1 percent after worst week in two years
    Published Mon, Feb 12 2018 8:22 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures were up more than 1 percent, attempting a rebound from Wall Street's worst week in two years, while volatility remained relatively elevated and U.S. bond yields hit new four-year highs.
  • Fri, Feb 9 2018
  • 2:43 PM » Lawler on Prime Working Age Population
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 2:43 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    CR note: Earlier this week, I wrote Prime Working-Age Population At New Peak, First Time Since 2007 . As I noted, my graph was based on data from the BLS. Housing economist Tom Lawler pointed out that the BLS data doesn't match the Census data. He wrote: "The reason the BLS population data don't jive with the latest Census population estimates is that there have been numerous and in some cases sizable revisions in population estimates from those first reported, and the BLS does NOT go back and adjust historical data for revisions. In re last decade, there were a string of downward population revisions." Here is a table of the recent Census estimates for the prime working age population (Vintage 2016). Note: The Vintage 2017 has been released, but not by age. In general, the data shows the same pattern as the data from the BLS (although the details are different) - the prime working age population was mostly flat in the 2010 to 2014 period (due to demographics, not the great recession), and the prime working age population is now growing again (although this may be impacted by immigration policies going forward). This is important because slower working age population growth impacts GDP. See Demographics and GDP: 2% is the new 4% Prime Working Age Population, Census Vintage 2016 As of July 1 25 to 54 Annual Change 2000 122,972,314 2001 123,909,542 0.8% 2002 123,982,489 0.1% 2003 124,217,955 0.2% 2004 124,696,761 0.4% 2005 125,260,089 0.5% 2006 125,925,139 0.5% 2007 126,449,632 0.4% 2008 126,860,406 0.3% 2009 127,078,241 0.2% 2010 127,191,778 0.1% 2011 127,209,296 0.0% 2012 127,144,275 -0.1% 2013 127,134,500 0.0% 2014 127,302,008 0.1% 2015 127,578,973 0.2% 2016 127,934,078 0.3%
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:38 PM » Stock and bond markets are doing a strange thing that is reminiscent of the 1987 crash
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 1:38 PM by CNBC
    David Rosenberg says a rise in the 10-year Treasury yield during a stock market decline is very rare.
  • 1:36 PM » House Again Passes Legislation to Review Points and Fees
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 1:36 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    On February 8, 2018 the United States House of Representatives passed The Mortgage Choice Act, H.R. 1153, to revise the definition of "points and fees" for purposes of the Regulation Z ability to repay/qualified mortgage requirements and high-cost mortgage loan requirements. Although a voice vote was held on February 7, Chairman of the House Financial... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 12:07 PM » The worst of the bond rout is yet to come, says Piper Jaffray
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 12:07 PM by CNBC
    The bond rout will continue, with yields possibly reaching 3 percent soon, according to Craig Johnson, senior technical strategist at Piper Jaffray.
  • 11:37 AM » BOE's Broadbent Says Rate Path Slightly Higher Than in November
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 11:37 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg BOE's Broadbent Says Rate Path Slightly Higher Than in November Bloomberg Improvements in the economy mean the path for U.K. interest rates is slightly higher than the Bank of England saw in November, according to Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent. While he reiterated than any moves would be "limited and gradual," he echoed BOE ... and more »
  • 10:47 AM » Housing: Inventory is Key
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 10:47 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Watching existing home "for sale" inventory is very helpful. As an example, the increase in inventory in late 2005 helped me call the top for housing. And the decrease in inventory eventually helped me correctly call the bottom for house prices in early 2012, see: The Housing Bottom is Here . And in 2015, it appeared the inventory build in several markets was ending , and that boosted price increases.  I don't have a crystal ball, but watching inventory helps understand the housing market. The graph below shows the year-over-year change for non-contingent inventory in Las Vegas through January 2018, Phoenix and Sacramento (January 2018 not available yet for Phoenix and Sacramento), and also total existing home inventory as reported by the NAR (through December 2017). Click on graph for larger image. This shows the year-over-year change in inventory for Phoenix, Sacramento, and Las Vegas.  The black line if the year-over-year change in inventory as reported by the NAR. Inventory has increased recently in Sacramento (still very low), but is down Nationally, and in Phoenix and Las Vegas. Inventory is a key for the housing market, and I will be watching inventory for the impact of the new tax law and higher mortgage rates on housing.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:36 AM » Driverless Cars Have Potential Market
    Published Fri, Feb 09 2018 10:36 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    NAHB regularly conducts national polls of American adults and home buyers in order to understand new trends and preferences in the housing market. This is the second in a series of posts highlighting poll results, as presented during the 2018 International Builders' Show in Orlando, FL. See previous post on tiny homes. Driverless cars are currently being developed and tested... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
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Mortgage Rates:
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  • 15 Yr FRM 3.89%
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Recent Housing Data:
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  • Refinance Index 5.05%
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  • Purchase Index 1.43%