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  • Wed, Dec 6 2017
  • 2:03 PM » 2018 Housing Forecasts
    Published Wed, Dec 06 2017 2:03 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Towards the end of each year I collect some housing forecasts for the following year.  This is an update (I'll gather several more). First a review of the previous five years ... Here is a summary of forecasts for 2017 . It is early (just nine months), but in 2017, new home sales will probably be around 615 thousand, and total housing starts will be around 1.200 to 1.210 million.  Brad Hunter (HomeAdvisor) appears very close on New Home sales, and Merrill Lynch and NAR appear close on starts. Here is a summary of forecasts for 2016 . In 2016, new home sales will probably be around 565 thousand, and total housing starts will be around 1.175 million.  Fannie Mae and Merrill Lynch were very close on New Home sales, and MetroStudy was close on starts. Here is a summary of forecasts for 2015 . In 2015, new home sales were 501 thousand, and total housing starts were 1.112 million.  Zillow, CoreLogic, and the MBA were right on with New Home sales, and CoreLogic, MetroStudy, MBA and Zillow were all correct on starts. Here is a summary of forecasts for 2014 . In 2014, new home sales were 437 thousand, and total housing starts were 1.003 million. No one was close on New Home sales (all way too optimistic), and Michelle Meyer (Merrill Lynch) and Fannie Mae were the closest on housing starts (about 10% too high). In 2014, many analysts underestimated the impact of higher mortgage rates and higher new home prices on new home sales and starts. Here is a summary of forecasts for 2013 . In 2013, new home sales were 429 thousand, and total housing starts were 925 thousand.  Barclays was the closest on New Home sales followed by David Crowe (NAHB).  Fannie Mae and the NAHB were the closest on housing starts. The table below shows several forecasts for 2018: From Fannie Mae: Housing Forecast: November 2017 From Freddie Mac: November 2017 Economic & Housing Market Forecas From NAHB: NAHB's housing and...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:03 PM » California fires force evacuation in exclusive L.A. area
    Published Wed, Dec 06 2017 2:03 PM by Reuters
    LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - Southern California wildfires raged into an affluent Los Angeles neighborhood on Wednesday, forcing evacuations, threatening multibillion-dollar homes and temporarily shutting a major highway.
  • 2:03 PM » Senate poised for vote on tax bill negotiations with House
    Published Wed, Dec 06 2017 2:03 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A top U.S. Senate Republican voiced optimism that congressional negotiators will reach a deal on a sweeping tax overhaul ahead of a Dec. 22 deadline, as senators prepared to vote on Wednesday to authorize talks with the House to bridge differences between their rival bills.
  • 10:49 AM » Las Vegas Real Estate in November: Sales up Slightly YoY, Inventory down 33%
    Published Wed, Dec 06 2017 10:49 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This is a key distressed market to follow since Las Vegas saw the largest price decline, following the housing bubble, of any of the Case-Shiller composite 20 cities. The Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors reported Local Home Prices Take Cue from Winter Weather, But Still Well Up from 2016; GLVAR Housing Statistics for November 2017 The Greater Las Vegas Association of REALTORS® (GLVAR) reported today that local home prices continued to cool down heading into the holidays, though home prices and sales are still up from one year ago. ... By the end of November, GLVAR reported 4,538 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. That's down 33.1 percent from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 735 properties listed without offers in November represented a 29.1 percent drop from one year ago. The total number of existing local homes, condos and townhomes sold during November was 3,202, a slight increase from November 2016 . Compared to one year ago, sales were unchanged for homes and up 5.2 percent for condos and townhomes. According to GLVAR, home sales so far in 2017 continue to run about 10 percent ahead of the pace from 2016, when 41,720 total properties were sold in Southern Nevada. At this rate, GLVAR statistics show that 2017 is on pace to be the best year for local home sales since at least 2012. ... In recent years, GLVAR has been reporting fewer distressed sales and more traditional home sales, where lenders are not controlling the transaction. Tina said foreclosures and short sales now make up such a small share of the local housing market that "they've really become a non-issue." For instance, he said short sales and foreclosures combined accounted for fewer than 5 percent of all existing home sales during November, compared to 10.5 percent of all sales one year ago. emphasis added 1) Overall sales were up slightly year-over-year. 2) Active inventory (single-family and condos) is down sharply from...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:15 AM » U.S. unit labor costs decline for two straight quarters
    Published Wed, Dec 06 2017 10:15 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. unit labor costs were much weaker than initially thought, declining both in the second and third quarters of this year, suggesting that inflation could remain benign for a while.
  • 9:51 AM » ADP: Private Employment increased 190,000 in November
    Published Wed, Dec 06 2017 9:51 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From ADP: Private sector employment increased by 190,000 jobs from October to November according to the November ADP National Employment Report®. ... The report, which is derived from ADP's actual payroll data, measures the change in total nonfarm private employment each month on a seasonally-adjusted basis. ... "The labor market continues to grow at a solid pace," said Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute. "Notably, manufacturing added the most jobs the industry has seen all year. As the labor market continues to tighten and wages increase it will become increasingly difficult for employers to attract and retain skilled talent." Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics, said, "The job market is red hot, with broad-based job gains across industries and company sizes. The only soft spots are in industries being disrupted by technology, brick-and-mortar retailing being the best example. There is a mounting threat that the job market will overheat next year." This was slightly below the consensus forecast for 192,000 private sector jobs added in the ADP report.  The BLS report for November will be released Friday, and the consensus is for 185,000 non-farm payroll jobs added in November.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:20 AM » Homeless Population Rises, Driven By West Coast Affordable-Housing Crisis
    Published Wed, Dec 06 2017 8:20 AM by www.npr.org
    It's the first time the number of homeless people has grown since 2010. In Los Angeles, homelessness is up by nearly 26 percent, fueled by high housing prices.
  • 8:19 AM » Millennials Are Taking Over Real Estate—but They're Going Deeper Into Debt, Too
    Published Wed, Dec 06 2017 8:19 AM by www.realtor.com
    Millennials are taking out the greatest share of new mortgages and buying up more homes in the lower price tiers-but they're taking on more debt to do it. The post Millennials Are Taking Over Real Estate-but They’re Going Deeper Into Debt, Too appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:19 AM » Private payrolls up 190,000; economist Zandi warns job market could 'overheat'
    Published Wed, Dec 06 2017 8:19 AM by CNBC
    Companies added 190,000 in November as the economy, according to ADP and Moody's Analytics.
  • 8:18 AM » Changes in tax law may prompt homeowners to move to other states
    Published Wed, Dec 06 2017 8:18 AM by Washington Post
    In a survey, one-third said they would consider relocating if deductions were eliminated.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Washington Post
  • Tue, Dec 5 2017
  • 5:13 PM » Tax bill will make home prices plunge, says NJ congressman
    Published Tue, Dec 05 2017 5:13 PM by CNBC
    The GOP tax overhaul plan will "kill" property values in New Jersey and raise taxes, Josh Gottheimer told CNBC.
  • 5:13 PM » Dalio Says End of SALT Deduction Will Further Divide Nation
    Published Tue, Dec 05 2017 5:13 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Dalio Says End of SALT Deduction Will Further Divide Nation Bloomberg Billionaire Ray Dalio said the expected elimination of state and local income tax deductibility proposed by lawmakers will take a toll on high-tax areas due to lower revenues as high-income earners move out of state. That's going to exacerbate the ...
  • 5:12 PM » CEOs don't expect to hire more, even as they expect sales to grow
    Published Tue, Dec 05 2017 5:12 PM by CNBC
    Optimism abounds in the most recent measure of how CEOs view the economy, according to the Business Roundtable.
  • 5:11 PM » Court enters scheduling order in CFPB Acting Director dispute
    Published Tue, Dec 05 2017 5:11 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    Following a scheduling conference held earlier today, Judge Kelly entered an order setting a briefing schedule and hearing date for Laurena English’s motion for a preliminary injunction in her action seeking a declaration that she, rather than Mick Mulvaney, has the legal right to serve as CFPB Acting Director. The order sets the following filing... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 3:13 PM » The Most Overvalued Housing Markets Aren't the Ones You'd Expect
    Published Tue, Dec 05 2017 3:13 PM by www.realtor.com
    With home prices reaching new heights, it may feel reminiscent of the housing crash. Another crisis is unlikely, but some housing markets may be overvalued. The post The Most Overvalued Housing Markets Aren’t the Ones You’d Expect appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 3:13 PM » Trump says GOP tax plan is becoming 'more popular.' It is still deeply unpopular, polls say
    Published Tue, Dec 05 2017 3:13 PM by CNBC
    Public opinion polls give little support for Trump's beliefs about the Republican tax overhaul.
  • 3:12 PM » Cutting Principal Didn't Help Struggling Home Owners—but Here's What Did
    Published Tue, Dec 05 2017 3:12 PM by www.realtor.com
    Will findings from the foreclosure crisis be useful in underwriting new mortgages in the future? The post Cutting Principal Didn’t Help Struggling Home Owners-but Here’s What Did appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 1:51 PM » Want That House? You'd Better Pay in Cash
    Published Tue, Dec 05 2017 1:51 PM by www.wsj.com
    Investors, downsizing baby boomers and millennials with parental assistance are helping to drive surge in all-cash deals
  • 1:50 PM » Blackstone's Schwarzman on tax reform: 'This is a whopper'
    Published Tue, Dec 05 2017 1:50 PM by CNBC
    The private equity billionaire says the tax reform working its way through Capitol Hill will be a game changer.
  • 11:42 AM » Freddie Mac December Insight
    Published Tue, Dec 05 2017 11:42 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac December Insight
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 11:21 AM » Trade Deficit at $48.7 Billion in October
    Published Tue, Dec 05 2017 11:21 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Department of Commerce reported : The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $48.7 billion in October, up $3.8 billion from $44.9 billion in September, revised. October exports were $195.9 billion, down less than $0.1 billion from September exports. October imports were $244.6 billion, $3.8 billion more than September imports. Click on graph for larger image. Exports decreased slightly, and imports increased, in October. Exports are 18% above the pre-recession peak and up 6% compared to October 2016; imports are 5% above the pre-recession peak, and up 7% compared to October 2016. In general, trade has been picking up. The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Oil imports averaged $47.26 in October, up from $45.15 in September, and up from $40.03 in October 2016.  The petroleum deficit had been declining for years - and is the major reason the overall deficit has mostly moved sideways since early 2012.  The trade deficit with China increased to $35.2 billion in October, from $31.2 billion in October 2016.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:23 AM » Key Senate panel recommends Jerome Powell for Federal Reserve chair
    Published Tue, Dec 05 2017 10:23 AM by CNBC
    The Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday approved Fed Governor Jerome Powell to take over as chair of the central bank.
  • 10:04 AM » ISM non-manufacturing index hits 57.4 in November, vs. 59 estimate
    Published Tue, Dec 05 2017 10:04 AM by CNBC
    Economists polled by Reuters expected non-manufacturing economic activity to shrink slightly in November.
  • 9:41 AM » Confidence in the U.S. Economy Remains Relatively Strong
    Published Tue, Dec 05 2017 9:41 AM by news.gallup.com
    Americans' views about the economy remained comparatively strong last week, with Gallup's U.S. Economic Confidence Index at +9.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: news.gallup.com
  • 9:22 AM » Bonds Are Telling US Stock Bulls to Temper Their Enthusiasm
    Published Tue, Dec 05 2017 9:22 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Bonds Are Telling US Stock Bulls to Temper Their Enthusiasm Bloomberg A seemingly bullish backdrop for U.S. stocks starts to disappear as Deutsche Bank AG delves deep into the the Treasury market. Ultra-low yields have been cited as a key driver of the rally in equities under the theory that they push investors toward ... and more »
  • 8:52 AM » The Geography of Homes Built on Private Wells and with Individual Septic Systems in 2016
    Published Tue, Dec 05 2017 8:52 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    NAHB Economics analysis of the Survey of Construction (SOC) data shows that less than 9% of new single-family homes started in 2016 are served by individual wells and close to 16% have private septic systems. These shares, however, vary widely across the nine Census divisions with the corresponding shares reaching 37% and 43% in New England - the highest occurrence... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:52 AM » Final GOP tax bill will likely scrap Obamacare individual mandate, top House tax writer Brady says
    Published Tue, Dec 05 2017 8:52 AM by CNBC
    Kevin Brady said he believes House and Senate Republicans will scrap Obamacare's individual mandate in their final tax bill.
  • 8:52 AM » US trade deficit rises to 9-month high in October
    Published Tue, Dec 05 2017 8:52 AM by CNBC
    The U.S. trade deficit increased more than expected in October.
  • 8:15 AM » South Florida Real Estate Boom Not Dampened By Sea Level Rise
    Published Tue, Dec 05 2017 8:15 AM by www.npr.org
    Coastal cities are flooding more as sea levels rise faster and faster. But none of that is slowing real estate development in low-lying areas such as Miami.
  • 8:05 AM » Survey: Many first-time home buyers lack basic knowledge about mortgages
    Published Tue, Dec 05 2017 8:05 AM by Washington Post
    TOWN SQUARE | The FreeandClear.com poll shows borrowers have misconceptions about down payments and Fannie Mae.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Washington Post
  • 8:05 AM » U.S. tax bill adds to debt need as interest costs weigh
    Published Tue, Dec 05 2017 8:05 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - A U.S. tax overhaul will increase the government's need to issue more Treasuries as interest costs on the country's debt become a larger drain on the budget.
  • 8:04 AM » What's at Stake in the Fight Over the CFPB
    Published Tue, Dec 05 2017 8:04 AM by The Atlantic
    It can be hard to fathom just how intertwined Americans' lives are with the country's financial industry. About 178 million Americans have at least one credit card, according to the Federal Reserve. Forty percent of adults under the age of 30 are paying off student loans. A record 107 million (43 percent) of adults have car loans. And about 80 percent of American adults have a credit score. The safety of the financial products that these hundreds of millions of Americans use fall under the purview of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. Prior to the founding of the CFPB, disputes between individual customers and their banks could be daunting and expensive pursuits. The financial industry has never been known for its transparency or accessibility, and banks managed to sneak all types of dangerous, expensive, or exploitative provisions into the fine print of contracts on everything from credit-card applications to mortgages. The subprime-debt crisis highlights just how badly that can turn out for everyone. While state-level consumer protections existed and banks were regulated by entities such as the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, the CFPB was the first federal regulator to take a critical look at such a wide variety of banking practices with an eye toward fairness and protection of consumers above all else. And yet, few Americans know much at all about the agency. A 2013 poll of 1,000 people done by a progressive nonprofit, Americans for Financial Reform, showed that only about 40 percent of Americans hadn't heard of the CFPB or had no opinion about it. It doesn't seem like awareness improved much with time. In a small but representative survey of around 500 adults conducted in 2017 by the financial product-recommendation website CreditCards.com, approximately 81 percent said they didn't know enough about the agency to have an opinion about it. However, in the past few weeks, the CFPB has...
  • Mon, Dec 4 2017
  • 4:01 PM » Year-end moves for homeowners looking to get ahead of tax reform
    Published Mon, Dec 04 2017 4:01 PM by CNBC
    With tax reform potentially changing the tax treatment of homeownership, there are some strategies you can use for 2017 to minimize your tax bill.
  • 4:01 PM » Q4 GDP Forecasts
    Published Mon, Dec 04 2017 4:01 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2017 is 3.5 percent on December 1, up from 2.7 percent on November 30. emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2017:Q4 stands at 3.9% . From Merrill Lynch: [Recent] data bumped up 4Q GDP tracking by 0.1pp to 2.0% qoq saar . This quite a range of forecasts.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:42 PM » Trump to Meet With Democrats, GOP Thursday for Budget Talks
    Published Mon, Dec 04 2017 2:42 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Trump to Meet With Democrats, GOP Thursday for Budget Talks Bloomberg House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi and Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer said they've agreed to meet on Thursday with President Donald Trump and Republican Congressional leaders to discuss a year-end spending deal as a possible government shutdown ... and more »
  • 2:41 PM » How Well Do You Know Real Estate? Time to Find Out
    Published Mon, Dec 04 2017 2:41 PM by www.realtor.com
    Real estate is an important component of the U.S. and global economies. For many Americans, homeownership doubles as a first investment. How much do you know about real estate-and real-estate investing? The post How Well Do You Know Real Estate? Time to Find Out appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 2:40 PM » Freddie Mac Statement on Single Security Initiative and Common Securitization Platform
    Published Mon, Dec 04 2017 2:40 PM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Statement on Single Security Initiative and Common Securitization Platform
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 12:47 PM » Freddie Mac Prices $1.1 Billion Multifamily K-Deal, K-070
    Published Mon, Dec 04 2017 12:47 PM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Prices $1.1 Billion Multifamily K-Deal, K-070
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 12:27 PM » Ag Workers Impacted By Fire Receive Housing Support
    Published Mon, Dec 04 2017 12:27 PM by PR Newswire
    SANTA ROSA, Calif., Dec. 4, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- More than 150 agricultural workers and their families from Sonoma County who were displaced by the fires in October will begin receiving a much needed helping hand today from a housing recovery fund recently established by the Sonoma County...
  • 12:00 PM » English to seek preliminary injunction in CFPB Acting Director dispute
    Published Mon, Dec 04 2017 12:00 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    Leandra English has filed a Proposed Schedule confirming that she plans to file a motion for a preliminary injunction in her action for declaratory and injunctive relief filed in D.C. federal district court seeking a declaration that she, rather than Mick Mulvaney, has the legal right to serve as CFPB Acting Director. Last Tuesday, Judge... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
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