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  • Fri, Sep 21 2018
  • 10:36 AM » Commercial Real Estate Cycles — Q2 2018
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 10:36 AM by blog.stewart.com
    This is the Must Have quarterly report for those in commercial real estate For me this is the most timely read quarterly information regarding Commercial Real Estate — Dr. Glenn Mueller's Real Estate Cycles Q2 2018 report from Black Creek Group - Black Creek Research. The report contains valuable data spanning major commercial real … Read more
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: blog.stewart.com
  • 10:09 AM » U.S. 'very close' to proceeding with Mexico-only trade deal: Trump adviser
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 10:09 AM by Reuters
    The United States is getting "very, very close" to having to move forward on its trade deal with Mexico without Canada, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on Friday.
  • 9:45 AM » Vinyl and Stucco are the Most Common Siding On New Homes
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 9:45 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The most common exterior wall materials on homes started in 2017 were vinyl and siding. Vinyl siding was used on 27 percent of the new homes started in 2017, followed closely by stucco (25 percent), brick or brick veneer (21 percent), and fiber cement siding (such as Hardiplank or Hardiboard) (20 percent). Far smaller shares of single-family homes started last year... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 9:02 AM » Over 62,000 still without power in the Carolinas after Florence
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 9:02 AM by Reuters
    More than 62,000 homes and businesses in the Carolinas were still without power on Friday, a week after Hurricane Florence hit the North Carolina coast on Sept. 14, according to local power companies.
  • 8:08 AM » U.S. bond market recession signal not far away, strategists say: Reuters poll
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 8:08 AM by Reuters
    U.S. bond market recession signal not far away, strategists say: Reuters poll
  • 8:01 AM » Fed's Powell between a rock and hard place: Ignore the yield curve or tight job market?
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 8:01 AM by Reuters
    Unemployment near a 20-year low screams at the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise interest rates or risk a too-hot economy. The bond market, not far from a state that typically precedes a recession, says not so fast.
  • Thu, Sep 20 2018
  • 4:28 PM » Wells Fargo to cut headcount by 5-10 percent in next 3 years
    Published Thu, Sep 20 2018 4:28 PM by Reuters
    Wells Fargo & Co said on Thursday it would reduce its headcount by about 5 percent to 10 percent within the next three years as part of a turnaround plan.
  • 2:31 PM » CoreLogic: 2.2 million Homes still in negative equity at end of Q2 2018
    Published Thu, Sep 20 2018 2:31 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From CoreLogic: Homeowner Equity Q2 2018 CoreLogic analysis shows U.S. homeowners with mortgages (roughly 63 percent of all properties) have seen their equity increase by a total of nearly $981 billion since the second quarter 2017, an increase of 12.3 percent, year over year. Homeowners Emerge from the Negative Equity Trap: In the second quarter 2018, the total number of mortgaged residential properties with negative equity decreased 9 percent from the first quarter 2017 to 2.2 million homes , or 4.3 percent of all mortgaged properties. Compared to the second quarter 2017, negative equity decreased 20.1 percent from 2.8 million homes, or 5.4 percent of all mortgaged properties. ... Negative equity peaked at 26 percent of mortgaged residential properties in the fourth quarter of 2009, based on the CoreLogic equity data analysis which began in the third quarter of 2009. emphasis added CR Note: A year ago, in Q2 2017, there were 2.8 million properties with negative equity - now there are 2.2 million.  A significant change.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:10 PM » More than One in Four Home-Sellers Dropped their Price Last Month
    Published Thu, Sep 20 2018 1:10 PM by www.redfin.com
    Share of homes with price drops reached a record-high in September The post More than One in Four Home-Sellers Dropped their Price Last Month appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 12:07 PM » The CFPB's Latest Credit Invisibility Report: What Should We Make of It?
    Published Thu, Sep 20 2018 12:07 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    Earlier this week, the CFPB's Office of Research released its third "Data Point" report on Americans who are "credit invisible" - that is, those without an established credit history with the three national credit reporting agencies - and who therefore cannot be scored by most traditional credit scoring models. The report, entitled "The Geography of... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 11:41 AM » US Consumer Comfort Rises to New 17-Year High
    Published Thu, Sep 20 2018 11:41 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg US Consumer Comfort Rises to New 17-Year High Bloomberg U.S. consumer sentiment advanced last week to a fresh 17-year high on brighter views of the economy, personal finances and the buying climate, the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index showed Thursday.
  • 11:06 AM » Federal Reserve Board approves final amendments to the liability provisions of Regulation CC
    Published Thu, Sep 20 2018 11:06 AM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    Last Wednesday the Federal Reserve published approved final amendments to Regulation CC (Availability of Funds and Collections of Checks) which update the liability provisions of Reg. CC to address the nearly-complete conversion of the nation's check collection system from a paper to an electronic environment. Historically, when banks disputed which party should be responsible for... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 10:20 AM » Existing home sales unchanged in August
    Published Thu, Sep 20 2018 10:20 AM by CNBC
    U.S. home sales flatlined in August but inventory increased for the first time in three years as the housing market continued to struggle despite strength across the broader economy.
  • 9:57 AM » Borrowers Lie to Get Approved
    Published Thu, Sep 20 2018 9:57 AM by www.builderonline.com
    Borrowers Lie to Get Approved
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • 9:44 AM » Jay Powell reportedly ramps up meetings with lawmakers as he seeks to protect Fed's independence
    Published Thu, Sep 20 2018 9:44 AM by CNBC
    Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has reportedly been making the rounds on Capitol Hill amidst criticism from President Trump that could threaten the central bank's independence.
  • 8:52 AM » Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims decreased to 201,000, Lowest Since 1969
    Published Thu, Sep 20 2018 8:52 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The DOL reported : In the week ending September 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 201,000 , a decrease of 3,000 from the previous week's unrevised level of 204,000. This is the lowest level for initial claims since November 15, 1969 when it was 197,000. The 4-week moving average was 205,750, a decrease of 2,250 from the previous week's unrevised average of 208,000. This is the lowest level for this average since December 6, 1969 when it was 204,500. emphasis added The previous week was unrevised. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 205,750. This was lower than the the consensus forecast. The low level of claims suggest few layoffs.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:05 AM » Dollar Traders See the Fed's Next Rate Hike as a Big Sell Signal
    Published Thu, Sep 20 2018 8:05 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Dollar Traders See the Fed's Next Rate Hike as a Big Sell Signal Bloomberg When a nation's central bank raises interest rates, it's often a bullish sign for the currency. Not so in the U.S., where expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike next week are flashing sell signals for the dollar. BNP Paribas Asset Management says ... and more »
  • 8:03 AM » DoubleLine's Gundlach warns US Treasury yields are headed higher
    Published Thu, Sep 20 2018 8:03 AM by CNBC
    Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive officer of DoubleLine Capital, on Wednesday said bond prices across the U.S. Treasury yield curve could fall if the 30-year yield closes above 3.25 percent twice in a row.
  • Wed, Sep 19 2018
  • 4:17 PM » Gundlach Is Right. Surging US Bond Yields Are Met With Shrugs
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 4:17 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Gundlach Is Right. Surging US Bond Yields Are Met With Shrugs Bloomberg The selloff in Treasuries that's taken the 10-year yield above 3 percent isn't getting enough attention. And DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach has noticed. He's right -- at least on the first part. References to "Treasury yields" in news articles are ... and more »
  • 4:16 PM » Treasury Yields Take Flight, Setting Up Big Shorts for Rewards
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 4:16 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Treasury Yields Take Flight, Setting Up Big Shorts for Rewards Bloomberg Liftoff may finally have arrived for yields in the world's biggest debt market. That's good news for the fast-money crowd that's rarely been more bearishly positioned on 10-year Treasury futures. Yields on all maturities have taken flight this week ... and more »
  • 4:12 PM » Nine Years Ago: Fast or Sluggish Recovery?
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 4:12 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This is my 14th year writing this blog, and sometimes it is fun to look back at earlier predictions. In the early stages of the recovery (September 2009), a number of analysts were predicting a rapid recovery (see: A couple of Bullish Views ). My view was that the recovery would be sluggish.  First, I quoted from some optimistic views, and then wrote: I disagree with these views. Although I started the year expecting a bottom in new home sales and single family housing starts (and it appears that has happened), there is still too much existing home inventory for much of an increase in the short term. ... onsumers will remain under pressure as they repair their household balance sheets This time housing will remain under pressure until the number of excess housing units (both owner occupied and rentals) decline to more normal levels. So I think an "Immaculate Recovery" is very unlikely. Note: Housing starts did bottom in 2009, and then mostly moved sideways for the next couple of years. House prices didn't bottom for a few more years (from February 2012: The Housing Bottom is Here ). Click on graph for larger image. And, according to the NY Fed , household debt didn't bottom until Q2 2013. This graph shows aggregate consumer debt.  Household debt previously peaked in 2008, and bottomed in Q2 2013. Housing and household debt were drags on the economy for several years, and the recovery was sluggish. In addition, demographics weren't favorable (see: Demographics and GDP: 2% is the new 4%) sually following a recession, there is a brief period of above average growth - but not this time due to the financial crisis and need for households to deleverage. So we didn't see a strong bounce back (sluggish growth was predict on the blog for the first years of the recovery). And overall, we should have been expecting slower growth this decade due to demographics - even without the housing bubble-bust and financial crisis. For 2018...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:06 PM » This type of loan doesn't help your credit score, even if you stay on top of it
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 3:06 PM by CNBC
    Paying down your debts on time can help your credit score in the long run. But not if you use this type of loan.
  • 1:05 PM » The 'Great Bull' market is 'dead,' and here's what's next, Bank of America Merrill Lynch predicts
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 1:05 PM by CNBC
    The "Great Bull" market that came after the financial crisis is dead due to slowing economic growth, rising interest rates and too much debt, according to a Bank of America Merrill Lynch analysis.
  • 1:02 PM » AIA: "August architecture firm billings rebound"
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 1:02 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: August architecture firm billings rebound as building investment spurt continues Architecture firm billings rebounded solidly in August, posting their eleventh consecutive month of growth, according to a report released today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA). AIA's Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score for August was 54.2 compared to 50.7 in July (any score over 50 represents billings growth). Most of the growth continues to come from the South and the multi-family residential sector. "Billings at architecture firms in the South continue to lead the healthy increase in design activity that we've seen across the profession in recent months," said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. "Nationally, growth across all building sectors remains solidly positive." ... • Regional averages: West (54.2), Midwest (52.5), South (57.0), Northeast (46.9) • Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (55.6), institutional (52.3), commercial/industrial (53.6), mixed practice (51.7) emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 54.2 in August, up from 50.7 in July. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction.  This index was positive in 11 of the last 12 months, suggesting a further increase in CRE investment in 2018 and into 2019.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:19 AM » Draghi Urges New Euro-Zone Fiscal Tool to Keep Economy Stable
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 11:19 AM by Bloomberg
    Draghi Urges New Euro-Zone Fiscal Tool to Keep Economy Stable
  • 10:45 AM » Ten years after the financial crisis: Reflections by Bernanke, Geithner and Paulson
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 10:45 AM by webfeeds.brookings.edu
    Ten years after Lehman Brothers' bankruptcy, former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, former New York Fed President and Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, and former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson reflect on the responses they led to the 2007-09 global financial crisis and ensuing Great Recession. Here are highlights of their wide-ranging conversation with Andrew Ross Sorkin…                
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: webfeeds.brookings.edu
  • 10:24 AM » Booking a vacation to Bermuda vs. a new kitchen: Here's how some people misuse their home equity
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 10:24 AM by CNBC
    Sure, you can use your home equity to cover a new kitchen or to help back up your rainy-day funds. But some people are just fine with using their abode to help meet monthly bills. Here's what you need to know about home equity loans and lines of credit.
  • 9:07 AM » Low-income Americans get double squeeze from poor credit and high fees
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 9:07 AM by CNBC
    Poor credit is a serious problem for low-income Americans.
  • 8:03 AM » The Fed has some big decisions to make starting next week
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 8:03 AM by CNBC
    When the Federal Reserve gathers next week, markets likely will be looking past a widely expected rate hike and toward the direction the central bank will chart ahead.
  • 8:01 AM » Cash-Strapped Americans Are Leveraging Their Homes to Pay the Bills
    Published Wed, Sep 19 2018 8:01 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Cash-Strapped Americans Are Leveraging Their Homes to Pay the Bills Bloomberg As U.S. household debt rises and wages stagnate, millions of Americans are tapping into home equity to keep up with day-to-day expenses. Twenty-four million homeowners believe borrowing against home equity is an acceptable way to cover regular bills, ... and more »
  • Tue, Sep 18 2018
  • 3:09 PM » Hurricane Florence Creating Housing Shortage for Displaced North Carolinians
    Published Tue, Sep 18 2018 3:09 PM by www.realtor.com
    Finding temporary housing for North Carolinians displaced by Hurricane Florence could prove more difficult than it was for those uprooted in the past. The post Hurricane Florence Creating Housing Shortage for Displaced North Carolinians appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 3:09 PM » Agencies propose rule regarding the treatment of high volatility commercial real estate
    Published Tue, Sep 18 2018 3:09 PM by Federal Reserve
    Agencies propose rule regarding the treatment of high volatility commercial real estate
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Federal Reserve
  • 1:31 PM » Parsing the Fed's Labor Participation Puzzle
    Published Tue, Sep 18 2018 1:31 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Parsing the Fed's Labor Participation Puzzle Bloomberg In the 2000 film Miss Congeniality, the beauty pageant contestant from Rhode Island is asked to describe her perfect date. She answers that it's April 25 "because it's not too hot, not too cold." Call this America's April 25 economy (Federal Reserve ... and more »
  • 1:30 PM » 'Another trillion in debt, here we come:' Cohn sees Trump working with Democrats on infrastructure
    Published Tue, Sep 18 2018 1:30 PM by CNBC
    Former White House economic advisor Gary Cohn said President Donald Trump will work with Congress to pass a massive debt-fueled infrastructure bill if Democrats take control after November elections.
  • 1:30 PM » Wall Street rallies as blow from fresh tariffs less than feared
    Published Tue, Sep 18 2018 1:30 PM by Reuters
    U.S. stocks rallied on Tuesday, led by gains in Apple and Amazon, as investors judged the latest tit-for-tat tariffs between the United States and China as less damaging than expected.
  • 1:29 PM » Buyers Are ‘Fatigued,' ‘Burned Out,' But Kept House-Hunting Even in August, Real-Estate Agents Say
    Published Tue, Sep 18 2018 1:29 PM by www.realtor.com
    August is generally a slow month for house hunting, but in nearly every metro area, surveyed agents spoke of a more profound slowdown than normal. The post Buyers Are 'Fatigued,' 'Burned Out,' But Kept House-Hunting Even in August, Real-Estate Agents Say appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 11:07 AM » Hurricane Florence insured losses $1.7 billion to $4.6 billion: AIR Worldwide
    Published Tue, Sep 18 2018 11:07 AM by Reuters
    Insured losses from winds and storm surge spurred by Hurricane Florence will range from $1.7 billion to $4.6 billion, catastrophe risk modeling firm AIR Worldwide said on Tuesday.
  • 10:18 AM » California Enacts Additional Limits on Collecting Time Barred Debts
    Published Tue, Sep 18 2018 10:18 AM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    Beginning in 2019, all California "debt collectors"-including creditors collecting their own debts regularly and in the ordinary course of business-will be required to provide notice to debtors when collecting on debts that are past the statute of limitations and will be prohibited from suing on such debts. The new law is based on provisions in... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 9:04 AM » California: "Housing market falters for fourth straight month", Inventory up 17.2% YoY
    Published Tue, Sep 18 2018 9:04 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The CAR reported: California's housing market falters for fourth straight month as high home prices take toll on demand, C.A.R. reports California's housing market dropped below the 400,000-level sales benchmark for the first time in more than two years as high home prices and eroding affordability combined to cut into housing demand, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today. Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 399,600 units in August, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2018 if sales maintained the August pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales. August's sales figure was down 1.8 percent from the revised 406,920 level in July and down 6.6 percent compared with home sales in August 2017 of 427,630. "Home sales activity remained on a downward trend for the fourth straight month as uncertainty about the housing market continues to mount," said C.A.R. President Steve White. "Buyers are being cautious and reluctant to make a commitment as they are concerned that home prices may have peaked and instead are waiting until there's more clarity in the market." "While home prices continued to rise modestly in August, the deceleration in price growth and the surge in housing supply suggest that a market shift is underway ," said C.A.R. Senior Vice President and Chief Economist Leslie Appleton-Young. "We are seeing active listings increasing and more price reductions in the market, and as such, the question remains, 'How long will it take for the market to close the price expectation gap between buyers and sellers?'" ... Statewide active listings rose for the fifth...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:21 AM » Escalation in U.S.-Chinese trade conflict hits German firms: BDI
    Published Tue, Sep 18 2018 8:21 AM by Reuters
    The escalation of the trade conflict between the United States and China is very concerning and will affect German firms, Germany's BDI industry association said on Tuesday after the U.S. imposed further tariffs on Chinese imports.
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