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  • Fri, Feb 24 2017
  • 4:49 PM » US Treasuries Might Finally Be Ready to Stage a Breakaway
    Published Fri, Feb 24 2017 4:49 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg US Treasuries Might Finally Be Ready to Stage a Breakaway Bloomberg U.S. Treasury yields may break out of a two-month holding pattern as the tug-of-war between bulls and bears is decisively settled by President Donald Trump's speech to Congress next week and a slew of upcoming data. The skew between payers and ... and more »
  • 3:47 PM » Fannie Mae secures commitments for credit transfer deal
    Published Fri, Feb 24 2017 3:47 PM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - Fannie Mae said on Friday it secured commitments for a second transaction under which the U.S. mortgage finance agency will transfer some credit risk to reinsurers on $15 billion worth of single-family home loans it plans to buy from lenders.
  • 3:41 PM » A few Comments on January New Home Sales
    Published Fri, Feb 24 2017 3:41 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    New home sales for January were reported at 555,000 on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR).  This was below the consensus forecast, and the three previous months were all revised down.  So overall this was a disappointing report. Sales were up 5.5% year-over-year in January,  However, January and February were the weakest months last year on a seasonally adjusted annual rate basis - so this was an easy comparison. Note that these sales (for January) occurred after mortgage rates increased following the election.  As I've noted before, interest rate changes impact new home sales before existing home sales because new home sales are counted when the contract is signed, and existing home sales at the close of escrow. This is just the second month of data after the rate increase, and we might be seeing a small dip in sales due to higher interest rates.  However, so far, we haven't seen any impact on existing home sales. It will take several months of data to see the impact of higher mortgage rates - and this is the seasonally weak period - so we might have to wait for the March and April data. Earlier: New Home Sales increase to 555,000 Annual Rate in January . Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows new home sales for 2016 and 2017 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).  Sales were up 5.5% year-over-year in January. New home sales averaged 559 thousand per month (SAAR) in 2016, so January was about at the average rate for last year. And here is another update to the "distressing gap" graph that I first started posting a number of years ago to show the emerging gap caused by distressed sales.  Now I'm looking for the gap to close over the next several years. The "distressing gap" graph shows existing home sales (left axis) and new home sales (right axis) through January 2017. This graph starts in 1994, but the relationship had been fairly...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:13 PM » Yellen will be last Fed official to speak before central bank makes rate decision
    Published Fri, Feb 24 2017 1:13 PM by Market Watch
    Fed Chief Janet Yellen is scheduled to speak one day before the Fed goes silent ahead of its March 14-15 meeting. If Yellen talks up a rate hike, the market could price it in.
  • 10:35 AM » US consumer sentiment remains slightly below the decade peak record in February
    Published Fri, Feb 24 2017 10:35 AM by CNBC
    The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index to hit 96.3 in February.
  • 10:14 AM » Americans believe robots will take everyone else's jobs, but theirs will be safe
    Published Fri, Feb 24 2017 10:14 AM by CNBC
    A new survey reveals that most people think their industries won't be affected by AI.
  • 10:14 AM » U.S. new home sales increase less than expected in January
    Published Fri, Feb 24 2017 10:14 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - New U.S. single-family home sales rose less than expected in January but continued to point to a strengthening housing market despite higher prices and mortgage rates.
  • 10:03 AM » Citi sees a 20% chance of Le Pen winning which could 're-ignite a fully-fledged sovereign debt crisis'
    Published Fri, Feb 24 2017 10:03 AM by CNBC
    A presidential election win for far-right anti-establishment candidate Marine Le Pen in France would cause turmoil in the country's corporate sector, according to analysts from Citi.
  • 8:20 AM » For millennials ready to buy a home, the pickings are slim
    Published Fri, Feb 24 2017 8:20 AM by Washington Post
    Low housing inventory, especially for starter homes, is one factor.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Washington Post
  • Thu, Feb 23 2017
  • 4:27 PM » Trump Rally's Prospects 'Not Looking Too Hot,' Bond Manager Says
    Published Thu, Feb 23 2017 4:27 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Trump Rally's Prospects 'Not Looking Too Hot,' Bond Manager Says Bloomberg Krishna Memani, chief investment officer at OppenheimerFunds, explains why the U.S. government must deliver on fiscal stimulus expectations in order to jump start economic growth. He speaks on 'Bloomberg Markets.' (Source: Bloomberg). The stock market ... and more »
  • 4:27 PM » Construction stocks slide amid report that US infrastructure spending won't come until next year
    Published Thu, Feb 23 2017 4:27 PM by CNBC
    Several construction stocks did not fare well Thursday.
  • 4:27 PM » Update on lack of Chinese Residential Real Estate Buyers
    Published Thu, Feb 23 2017 4:27 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    A few weeks ago I wrote Some Random Concerns and Observations ... . One of my concerns was that stricter capital controls in China would negatively impact certain U.S. real estate markets. After that post, I spoke to an excellent source in San Marino (high end area of Los Angeles), and he told me that some Chinese owners were looking to sell (impacting prices). Here is an article today from David Pierson at the LA Times: Mega-mansions in this L.A. suburb used to sell to Chinese buyers in days. Now they're sitting empty for months The turnaround in activity, industry officials say, is directly linked to policies in China. ... To defend against capital flight, Chinese regulators allow citizens to take out only $50,000 a year. But that's been largely ignored and circumvented, often by asking dozens of friends and family to exercise their quota on someone else's behalf. ... on Dec. 31, China's State Administration of Foreign Exchange, which swaps Chinese yuan for dollars, issued some of its strictest guidelines yet. Customers now have to pledge not to invest in foreign property and provide a detailed account of how foreign funds will be used. They also prohibited customers from taking foreign currency out for someone else. The rules could have broad implications around the world for any city exposed to Chinese real estate investment such as Vancouver, Sydney and more recently, Seattle. If this continues, then this will impact certain areas - and have spillover effects to other areas.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:39 PM » How Mnuchin's comments dinged the dollar
    Published Thu, Feb 23 2017 1:39 PM by CNBC
    Treasury Secretary Mnuchin didn't take sides on a controversial tax plan, but currency traders thought he did.
  • 1:35 PM » Claims for Jobless Benefits in US Point to Firm Job Market
    Published Thu, Feb 23 2017 1:35 PM by Bloomberg
    Claims for Jobless Benefits in US Point to Firm Job Market Bloomberg The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased last week, while staying within a range that shows subdued firings. Jobless claims rose by 6,000 to 244,000 in the week ended Feb. 18, a report from the Labor Department showed ... and more »
  • 11:43 AM » Continued Uncertainty Causes Mortgage Rates to Hold
    Published Thu, Feb 23 2017 11:43 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Continued Uncertainty Causes Mortgage Rates to Hold
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 11:43 AM » Morgan Stanley says housing recovery still in 'middle innings,' upgrades Home Depot to overweight
    Published Thu, Feb 23 2017 11:43 AM by CNBC
    Morgan Stanley upgraded Home Depot to overweight on Thursday, citing the potential for the housing market to improve.
  • 11:43 AM » Stable Growth Expected for Commercial Real Estate in 2017
    Published Thu, Feb 23 2017 11:43 AM by Google News
    WASHINGTON (February 23, 2017) — Steered ahead by strengthening demand in smaller markets, the commercial real estate sector should remain on stable ground in 2017 and offer decent returns for investors, according to the latest National Association of Realtors® quarterly commercial real estate forecast . National office vacancy rates are forecast by Realtors® to retreat 1.1 percent to 12.1 percent over the coming year as job growth in business and professional services brings increased need for office space. The... Read More
  • 9:42 AM » Mnuchin Super-Long Chatter Sends Treasury Yield Curve Steeper
    Published Thu, Feb 23 2017 9:42 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Mnuchin Super-Long Chatter Sends Treasury Yield Curve Steeper Bloomberg Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin whet the appetites of investors who long for a super-long bond, steepening the U.S. yield curve as duration-starved speculators bet the idea he first floated last year isn't dead. Issuance of 50- or 100-year Treasury ... and more »
  • 9:42 AM » Here's the salary needed to afford a home in the 15 largest cities
    Published Thu, Feb 23 2017 9:42 AM by CNBC
    Find out median home payment costs for the 15 largest cities in the U.S. and the salary you'll likely need to pay them.
  • 9:41 AM » Black Knight Financial Services' First Look at January 2017 Mortgage Data
    Published Thu, Feb 23 2017 9:41 AM by www.bkfs.com
    Black Knight Financial Services' First Look at January 2017 Mortgage Data<br/>http://www.bkfs.com/CorporateInformation/NewsRoom/Pages/20170223.aspx
  • 8:37 AM » America's Hottest Real Estate Markets for February 2017
    Published Thu, Feb 23 2017 8:37 AM by www.realtor.com
    In the last, briefest month of winter, homes for sale were scarcer than ever, according to a preliminary analysis of February data at realtor.com. Strong buyer demand continued to power sales and prices. The post America’s Hottest Real Estate Markets for February 2017 appeared first on Real Estate News & Advice | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:36 AM » Treasury seriously studying issuing 50-year or 100-year bonds: Mnuchin
    Published Thu, Feb 23 2017 8:36 AM by Market Watch
    Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said he has asked his staff to explore issuing a 50-year or 100-year bond.
  • 8:36 AM » El-Erian Warns Bond Market It's Underestimating March Fed Odds
    Published Thu, Feb 23 2017 8:36 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg El-Erian Warns Bond Market It's Underestimating March Fed Odds Bloomberg Mohamed El-Erian, Allianz SE's chief economic adviser, is warning traders not to get complacent about the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike next month. Given the minutes from the Fed's Feb. 1 meeting and recent economic data, the market ... and more »
  • 8:34 AM » U.S. house prices to rise; analysts wary of deregulation: Reuters poll
    Published Thu, Feb 23 2017 8:34 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - The U.S. housing market will rise steadily and contribute significantly to economic growth in the coming year, according to a majority of analysts in a Reuters poll who nearly all agreed that further stimulus was not required.
  • Wed, Feb 22 2017
  • 4:42 PM » Listing Shortage: California House Hunters Face 10% Fewer Choices
    Published Wed, Feb 22 2017 4:42 PM by www.builderonline.com
    Frustrated Southern California house hunters, you're not alone!
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • 2:29 PM » Many Fed policymakers said rate hike may come 'fairly soon': minutes
    Published Wed, Feb 22 2017 2:29 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Many Federal Reserve policymakers said it may be appropriate to raise interest rates again "fairly soon" should jobs and inflation data come in line with expectations, according to the minutes of the Fed's last policy meeting released on Wednesday.
  • 2:28 PM » 50 Ways House Hunters Can Get Ready for Homebuying Season
    Published Wed, Feb 22 2017 2:28 PM by www.redfin.com
    Spring will very soon have sprung - which means "For Sale" signs will be in full bloom - and if you're hoping to buy a home this year, get ready for a competitive market. The post 50 Ways House Hunters Can Get Ready for Homebuying Season appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 2:28 PM » Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 31-February 1, 2017
    Published Wed, Feb 22 2017 2:28 PM by Federal Reserve
    Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee, January 31-February 1, 2017
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Federal Reserve
  • 12:30 PM » Shares of Toll Brothers jump after earnings, revenue beat
    Published Wed, Feb 22 2017 12:30 PM by CNBC
    Luxury homebuilder Toll Brothers reported an earnings and revenue beat on Wednesday, helped by strong demand in orders for homes.
  • 12:29 PM » AIA: Architecture Billings Index decreased in January
    Published Wed, Feb 22 2017 12:29 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Entering 2017, architecture billings slip modestly The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) dipped slightly into negative territory in January, after a very strong showing in December. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the January ABI score was 49.5 , down from a score of 55.6 in the previous month. This score reflects a minor decrease in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 60.0, up from a reading of 57.6 the previous month. "This small decrease in activity, taking into consideration strong readings in project inquiries and new design contracts, isn't exactly a cause for concern," said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. "The fundamentals of a sound nonresidential design and construction market persist."   ... • Regional averages: South (54.2), Northeast (53.0), Midwest (52.4), West (48.8) • Sector index breakdown: institutional (54.6), commercial / industrial (53.4), mixed practice (48.1), multi-family residential (48.1) emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 49.5 in January, down from 55.6 in December. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction.  This index was positive in 9 of the...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:28 PM » Capitol Report: Realtors criticize Fannie, Freddie moves they say limit inventories
    Published Wed, Feb 22 2017 12:28 PM by Market Watch
    Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac should reduce the fees that get passed on to borrowers, and stop enabling institutional investors to buy up homes for rentals, an industry group said.
  • 12:28 PM » Nearly Half of Minority Homebuyers in a 2016 Housing Market Survey Felt They May Have Been Discriminated Against When Trying to Buy a Home
    Published Wed, Feb 22 2017 12:28 PM by www.redfin.com
    These results come from a Redfin-commissioned survey conducted by SurveyGizmo in December 2016 that reached more than 3,000 people. The post Nearly Half of Minority Homebuyers in a 2016 Housing Market Survey Felt They May Have Been Discriminated Against When Trying to Buy a Home appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 10:13 AM » Existing home sales hit 10-year high in January
    Published Wed, Feb 22 2017 10:13 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. home resales surged to a 10-year high in January as buyers shrugged of higher prices and mortgage rates, a sign of growing confidence in the economy.
  • 8:46 AM » Small Gains for Single-Family Built-for-Rent Construction
    Published Wed, Feb 22 2017 8:46 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The number of single-family homes built-for-rent posted small gains over the course of 2016. However, the built-for-rent market is a small portion of the total single-family development, so care must be taken when identifying trends. According to data from the Census Bureau's Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design and NAHB analysis, the market share of single-family homes built-for-rent, as measured on a... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:14 AM » Why Trump's Immigration Crackdown Could Sink US Home Prices
    Published Wed, Feb 22 2017 8:14 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Why Trump's Immigration Crackdown Could Sink US Home Prices Bloomberg In San Francisco, an Indian software engineer on a work permit canceled plans to bid on a $900,000 home. In Washington, a Brazilian nonprofit executive passed on a fixer-upper near her office. And, in Mesa, Arizona, a 24-year-old son of undocumented ... and more »
  • Tue, Feb 21 2017
  • 4:14 PM » Fed's Williams Says Historically Low Interest Rates Will Persist
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 4:14 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Fed's Williams Says Historically Low Interest Rates Will Persist Bloomberg Historically low interest rates are here to stay, making it much harder for central banks in wealthy countries to prevent and limit recessions in the future, according San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams. Writing in the bank's ... and more »
  • 4:13 PM » Supply of affordable housing expected to shrink
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 4:13 PM by CNBC
    Buyers with lower household incomes can expect heavy competition for the listings they can afford, NBC News reports.
  • 4:12 PM » March, May or June? Fed minutes may hold clues on timing of next interest-rate hike
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 4:12 PM by Market Watch
    Fed watchers disagreed whether Fed chairwoman Janet Yellen was signaling a March rate hike or one in May or June. They are hoping the minutes hold the answer.
  • 2:06 PM » Yellen Follows Predecessors in Chasing Fed's Dual Mandate: Chart
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 2:06 PM by Bloomberg
    Yellen Follows Predecessors in Chasing Fed's Dual Mandate: Chart Bloomberg As investors await the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's policy-setting meeting Jan. 31-Feb. 1, the objective for Chair Janet Yellen remains a balancing act: foster economic conditions that achieve the dual mandate of stable prices and ... and more »
  • 1:04 PM » U.S. court upholds dismissal of hedge funds' Freddie and Fannie claims
    Published Tue, Feb 21 2017 1:04 PM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - A U.S. appeals court on Tuesday upheld a dismissal of hedge funds' claims against the U.S. government for seizing the profits of mortgage financiers Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac following their taxpayer bailout.
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