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  • Tue, Sep 25 2018
  • 3:51 PM » CNBC FED SURVEY: CNBC'S STEVE LIESMAN: FED EXPECTED TO HIKE RATES TWICE MORE THIS YEAR AND THEN RISK A 'POLICY MISTAKE'
    Published Tue, Sep 25 2018 3:51 PM by CNBC
    CNBC FED SURVEY: CNBC'S STEVE LIESMAN: FED EXPECTED TO HIKE RATES TWICE MORE THIS YEAR AND THEN RISK A 'POLICY MISTAKE'|| 105470719
  • 1:42 PM » Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in July
    Published Tue, Sep 25 2018 1:42 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here is the earlier post on Case-Shiller: Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.0% year-over-year in July It has been over eleven years since the bubble peak. In the Case-Shiller release this morning, the seasonally adjusted National Index (SA), was reported as being 9.9% above the previous bubble peak. However, in real terms, the National index (SA) is still about 9.6% below the bubble peak (and historically there has been an upward slope to real house prices).  The composite 20, in real terms, is still 15.7% below the bubble peak. The year-over-year increase in prices is mostly moving sideways now around 6%. In July, the index was up 6.0% YoY. Usually people graph nominal house prices, but it is also important to look at prices in real terms (inflation adjusted).  Case-Shiller and others report nominal house prices.  As an example, if a house price was $200,000 in January 2000, the price would be close to $285,000 today adjusted for inflation (42%).  That is why the second graph below is important - this shows "real" prices (adjusted for inflation). Nominal House Prices The first graph shows the monthly Case-Shiller National Index SA, and the monthly Case-Shiller Composite 20 SA (through July) in nominal terms as reported. In nominal terms, the Case-Shiller National index (SA)and the Case-Shiller Composite 20 Index (SA) are both at new all times highs (above the bubble peak). Real House Prices The second graph shows the same two indexes in real terms (adjusted for inflation using CPI less Shelter). Note: some people use other inflation measures to adjust for real prices. In real terms, the National index is back to December 2004 levels, and the Composite 20 index is back to June 2004. In real terms, house prices are at 2004 levels. Price-to-Rent In October 2004, Fed economist John Krainer and researcher Chishen Wei wrote a Fed letter on price to rent ratios: House Prices and Fundamental Value . Kainer...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:41 PM » Amazon makes first investment in a home builder, backing start-up focused on prefabricated houses
    Published Tue, Sep 25 2018 1:41 PM by CNBC
    Amazon made its first investment in a homebuilding start-up Tuesday, furthering its commitment to the smart home space.
  • 12:16 PM » The key bond rate that affects mortgages looks ready to break higher
    Published Tue, Sep 25 2018 12:16 PM by CNBC
    The key rate that affects mortgages and a slew of other loans is looking ready to break higher.
  • 11:21 AM » Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Activity Was Robust in September"
    Published Tue, Sep 25 2018 11:21 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Richmond Fed: Fifth District Manufacturing Activity Was Robust in September Fifth District manufacturing activity was robust in September, according to results of the most recent survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index rose from 24 in August to 29 in September , buoyed by increases in shipments and new orders, while the index of the third component, employment, dropped. Survey respondents were optimistic, expecting growth to continue in the next six months. The employment index fell in September but remained positive , while growth in wages and the average workweek expanded. Manufacturing firms continued to struggle to find employees with the skills they needed, and they expect this difficulty to continue in the coming months. emphasis added So far the regional surveys for September have indicated solid growth.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:02 AM » Fed Rate Path, ECB Inflation Comments, Italy's Budget: Eco Day
    Published Tue, Sep 25 2018 11:02 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Fed Rate Path, ECB Inflation Comments, Italy's Budget: Eco Day Bloomberg The Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this week and continue its quarterly drumbeat of 25-basis-point increases straight through July 2019, according to a Bloomberg survey; Trump and his South Korean counterpart signed a renegotiated free-trade ...
  • 10:27 AM » Consumer confidence rises to highest level in 18 years
    Published Tue, Sep 25 2018 10:27 AM by CNBC
    Consumer confidence rose in September, notching its highest level in about 18 years.
  • 10:13 AM » Redfin Housing Demand Index Unchanged For Fourth Consecutive Month in August
    Published Tue, Sep 25 2018 10:13 AM by www.redfin.com
    The Demand Index posted its largest year-over-year decline since March 2016 The Redfin Housing Demand Index has remained roughly unchanged for the past four months, inching up 0.3 percent from July to 125.2 in August, as an increase in price drops and softening demand in previously hot markets point to an environment enabling homebuyers to […] The post Redfin Housing Demand Index Unchanged For Fourth Consecutive Month in August appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 9:47 AM » Northeast and Midwest Lags in Job Gains in August
    Published Tue, Sep 25 2018 9:47 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    Over the year, total nonfarm employment in July increased by 2.3 million jobs which is a 1.6% increase compared to August 2017. During this time, total nonfarm employment in the Western region increased by 2.4% and the Southern region increased by 2.1%. The Midwest recorded the lowest gains at 1.3% during this time. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics,... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 9:28 AM » Case-Shiller: National House Price Index increased 6.0% year-over-year in July
    Published Tue, Sep 25 2018 9:28 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    S&P/Case-Shiller released the monthly Home Price Indices for July ("July" is a 3 month average of May, June and July prices). This release includes prices for 20 individual cities, two composite indices (for 10 cities and 20 cities) and the monthly National index. Note: Case-Shiller reports Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA), I use the SA data for the graphs. From S&P: Home Price Gains Slow According to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 6.0% annual gain in July , down from 6.2% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 5.5%, down from 6.0% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 5.9% year-over-year gain, down from 6.4% in the previous month. Las Vegas, Seattle and San Francisco continued to report the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities. In July, Las Vegas led the way with a 13.7% year-over-year price increase, followed by Seattle with a 12.1% increase and San Francisco with a 10.8% increase. Five of the 20 cities reported greater price increases in the year ending July 2018 versus the year ending June 2018. ... Before seasonal adjustment, the National Index posted a month-over-month gain of 0.4% in July. The 10-City and 20-City Composites reported increases of 0.2% and 0.3%, respectively. After seasonal adjustment, the National Index recorded a 0.2% month-over-month increase in July. The 10-City Composite remained flat and the 20-City Composite posted a 0.1% month-over-month increase. Eighteen of 20 cities reported increases in June before seasonal adjustment, while 13 of 20 cities reported increases after seasonal adjustment. "Rising homes prices are beginning to catch up with housing," says David M. Blitzer, Managing Director and Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. "Year-over-year gains and monthly seasonally...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:37 AM » China says U.S. putting 'knife to its neck', hard to proceed on trade
    Published Tue, Sep 25 2018 8:37 AM by Reuters
    China says U.S. putting 'knife to its neck', hard to proceed on trade
  • 8:06 AM » Rates rise as Fed set to begin two-day meeting; 10-year Treasury yield hits highest since May
    Published Tue, Sep 25 2018 8:06 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices fell into negative territory on Tuesday.
  • 8:05 AM » Fed May Raise Rates to 3% by Mid-2019, JPMorgan's Stealey Says
    Published Tue, Sep 25 2018 8:05 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Fed May Raise Rates to 3% by Mid-2019, JPMorgan's Stealey Says Bloomberg Iain Stealey, portfolio manager at JPMorgan Global Strategic Bond Fund, talks about Federal Reserve policy, Treasury yields and the dollar. He speaks with Haidi Stroud-Watts and Shery Ahn on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia." (Source: Bloomberg) ...
  • Mon, Sep 24 2018
  • 2:50 PM » New Chinese tariffs about to make your home renovation more expensive
    Published Mon, Sep 24 2018 2:50 PM by CNBC
    Home renovation demand is soaring, and so are the costs to do it, thanks to a new round of tariffs on good imported from China.
  • 2:46 PM » With Fed set to raise rates again, other central banks sound ready to end the easy money too
    Published Mon, Sep 24 2018 2:46 PM by CNBC
    On the eve of the Fed's September meeting, Europe's top central banker delivered a sharp reminder to markets that the world's central banks are all moving away from easy policies.
  • 1:09 PM » Home Prices Up 4.7% in August, Lowest Price Growth in Four Years
    Published Mon, Sep 24 2018 1:09 PM by www.redfin.com
    August Home Sales Fell 2.4%, as Inventory Declined Just 3.4% from Last Year The post Home Prices Up 4.7% in August, Lowest Price Growth in Four Years appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 1:09 PM » Deputy Attorney General Rosenstein heads to White House amid conflicting reports on future
    Published Mon, Sep 24 2018 1:09 PM by Reuters
    U.S. Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein, who oversees the special counsel investigation into Russia's role in the 2016 presidential election, headed to the White House on Monday amid reports he would be leaving the post.
  • 11:55 AM » A handful of traders actually think the Fed could hike a half-point this week
    Published Mon, Sep 24 2018 11:55 AM by CNBC
    Everyone knows the Fed is virtually a lock to approve a quarter-point rate hike this week. Some traders, though, think the central bank could get even more aggressive.
  • 11:19 AM » ECB Deposit Rate Won't Go Above 0.25% for Five Years, Pimco Says
    Published Mon, Sep 24 2018 11:19 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg ECB Deposit Rate Won't Go Above 0.25% for Five Years, Pimco Says Bloomberg Tony Crescenzi, market strategist and portfolio manager at Pimco, discusses the outlook for European Central Bank policy. He speaks on "Bloomberg Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg). RELATED ARTICLES. ECB on Runway to Rate Liftoff Considers What ...
  • 11:00 AM » Green Mortgages on Tap From Banks Funding Climate Investment
    Published Mon, Sep 24 2018 11:00 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Green Mortgages on Tap From Banks Funding Climate Investment Bloomberg Thirty-nine European banks agreed to test a new type of green mortgage under which borrowers ensure their properties abide by a suite of energy efficiency standards. The proposed standards are being set by the World Green Building Council and backed ... and more »
  • 10:42 AM » American Credit Scores Hit a New High
    Published Mon, Sep 24 2018 10:42 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg American Credit Scores Hit a New High Bloomberg The average is better than it's been in 13 years, but bankcard, mortgage and auto-loan debt are all flashing red. By. Suzanne Woolley. September 24, 2018, 5:00 AM PDT. LISTEN TO ARTICLE. 4:29. SHARE THIS ARTICLE. Share · Tweet · Post · Email. and more »
  • 10:41 AM » Dallas Fed: "Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues amid Increased Uncertainty"
    Published Mon, Sep 24 2018 10:41 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Dallas Fed: Texas Manufacturing Expansion Continues amid Increased Uncertainty Texas factory activity continued to expand in September, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, dipped six points to 23.3, indicating output growth continued but at a slower pace than last month. Other indexes of manufacturing activity also suggested slower expansion in September. The new orders index fell nine points to 14.7, its lowest reading in six months. Similarly, the growth rate of orders index slipped to 11.5, also a six-month low. The capacity utilization index retreated slightly to 21.6, while the shipments index fell five points to 20.8. Perceptions of broader business conditions remained positive this month, although outlooks were less optimistic and uncertainty increased further. The general business activity index edged down but remained highly elevated at 28.1 . The company outlook index held above average but retreated nine points to 18.2, its lowest reading in more than a year. The relatively new index measuring uncertainty regarding companies' outlooks moved up four points to a new high of 19.9. Labor market measures suggest employment levels and work hours rose at a slower pace in September. The employment index remained positive but dropped 11 points to 17.7 . One-quarter of firms noted net hiring, compared with 7 percent noting net layoffs. The hours worked index moved down to 12.7. emphasis added So far the regional surveys for September have indicated solid growth.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:12 AM » The U.S. economy is doing so well it could be the Fed's next problem, strategist says
    Published Mon, Sep 24 2018 10:12 AM by CNBC
    The chances Fed members exit Wednesday's meeting without raising the fed funds rate is near zero. Nuveen's Bob Doll says, the question becomes how soon until the next?
  • 9:44 AM » ECB's Draghi Sees Vigorous Pickup in Core Euro-Area Inflation
    Published Mon, Sep 24 2018 9:44 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg ECB's Draghi Sees Vigorous Pickup in Core Euro-Area Inflation Bloomberg Mario Draghi said he sees a "relatively vigorous" pickup in underlying euro-area inflation, signaling that the European Central Bank is well on track to raise interest rates late next year. In testimony to the European Parliament, the ECB president ... and more »
  • 9:32 AM » Chicago Fed "Index Points to Steady Economic Growth in August"
    Published Mon, Sep 24 2018 9:32 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Chicago Fed: Index Points to Steady Economic Growth in August The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) was unchanged at +0.18 in August. Three of the four broad categories of indicators that make up the index increased from July, and two of the four categories made positive contributions to the index in August. The index's three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, rose to +0.24 in August from +0.02 in July. emphasis added This graph shows the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (three month moving average) since 1967. Click on graph for larger image. This suggests economic activity was slightly above the historical trend in August (using the three-month average). According to the Chicago Fed: The index is a weighted average of 85 indicators of growth in national economic activity drawn from four broad categories of data: 1) production and income; 2) employment, unemployment, and hours; 3) personal consumption and housing; and 4) sales, orders, and inventories. ... A zero value for the monthly index has been associated with the national economy expanding at its historical trend (average) rate of growth; negative values with below-average growth (in standard deviation units); and positive values with above-average growth.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:06 AM » Watch out for the yield curve
    Published Mon, Sep 24 2018 8:06 AM by CNBC
    As the gap between short- and long-term interest rates continues to shrink, equity investors are shrugging off the bearish signal from the bond market.
  • 8:03 AM » Fed hikes give cash appeal; stocks no longer only game in town
    Published Mon, Sep 24 2018 8:03 AM by Reuters
    The U.S. Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate hike this week will make cash the most attractive it has been in about a decade and end the era of stocks as the only game in town.
  • 8:01 AM » Housing Slowdown? Softening? Whatever You Call It, It's Real and It's Here
    Published Mon, Sep 24 2018 8:01 AM by www.realtor.com
    After years of soaring price hikes, bidding wars, and a dearth of homes for sale, is the housing market beginning to shift toward a buyer's market? The post Housing Slowdown? Softening? Whatever You Call It, It’s Real and It’s Here appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • Fri, Sep 21 2018
  • 3:50 PM » The housing bubble, the credit crunch, and the Great Recession: A reply to Paul Krugman
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 3:50 PM by webfeeds.brookings.edu
    Why was the Great Recession so deep? Certainly, the collapse of the housing bubble was the key precipitating event; falling house prices depressed consumer wealth and spending while leading to sharp reductions in residential construction. However, as I argue in a new paper and blog post, the most damaging aspect of the unwinding bubble was…                
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: webfeeds.brookings.edu
  • 3:50 PM » Here's how much time homeowners spend on housework compared to renters
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 3:50 PM by CNBC
    Apartment List found that homeowners spend, on average, 141 more hours a year doing housework than renters - that's the equivalent of 3.5 full work weeks.
  • 3:29 PM » California Amends Student Loan Servicing Act
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 3:29 PM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    California Governor Jerry Brown has signed into law Assembly Bill 38, which significantly modifies the scope, administration, and servicing requirements of the state's Student Loan Servicing Act. The bill was approved by the California Assembly 55-23-2 and the California Senate 28-11-1 with the intent to "build upon existing law to ensure that the Student Loan... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • 3:13 PM » Merrill: "Existing Home Sales have Peaked"
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 3:13 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    A few excerpts from a Merrill Lynch research note: We are calling it: existing home sales have peaked. We believe that the peak was at 5.72 million, reached in November last year. From here on, sales should trend sideways . If this is indeed the peak, it would be comparable to the rate we last saw in the early 2000s before the bubble set in. Here is the catch - while existing home sales have likely peaked, we do not think we have seen the same for new home sales . New home sales have lagged existing in this recovery and we believe there is room to run for new home sales, leaving builders to add more single family homes to the market. The peak in existing home sales can largely be explained by the decline in affordability. With housing prices hovering close to bubble highs and mortgage rates on the rise, affordability has been declining. emphasis added CR Note: As I noted in July (see: Has Housing Market Activity Peaked? and Has the Housing Market Peaked? (Part 2) First, I think it is likely that existing home sales will move more sideways going forward. However it is important to remember that new home sales are more important for jobs and the economy than existing home sales. Since existing sales are existing stock, the only direct contribution to GDP is the broker's commission. There is usually some additional spending with an existing home purchase - new furniture, etc. - but overall the economic impact is small compared to a new home sale. Also I think the growth in multi-family starts is behind us, and that multi-family starts peaked in June 2015. See: Comments on June Housing Starts For the economy, what we should be focused on are single family starts and new home sales . As I noted in Investment and Recessions "New Home Sales appears to be an excellent leading indicator, and currently new home sales (and housing starts) are up solidly year-over-year, and this suggests there is no recession in sight." If new home sales and single family starts have...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:22 PM » The Decade-Long Growth in Rentership is Slowly Reversing
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 2:22 PM by www.builderonline.com
    The Decade-Long Growth in Rentership is Slowly Reversing
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • 1:58 PM » Investors keep pouring money into bonds, and are paying a big price for it
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 1:58 PM by CNBC
    Risk-averse investors keep pouring money into bonds even though it means they've missed out on a big stock rally and face substantial danger ahead.
  • 11:51 AM » Homebuilder shares plunge after JP Morgan says housing recovery will be 'tepid,' downgrading 5 stocks
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 11:51 AM by CNBC
    Homebuilder stocks are tanking after J.P. Morgan said it is "more cautious" about the sector's prospects.
  • 10:56 AM » BLS: Unemployment Rates in Idaho, Oregon, South Carolina and Washington at New Lows
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 10:56 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were lower in August in 13 states , higher in 3 states, and stable in 34 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Eleven states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier and 39 states and the District had little or no change. The national unemployment rate was unchanged from July at 3.9 percent but was 0.5 percentage point lower than in August 2017. ... Hawaii had the lowest unemployment rate in August, 2.1 percent. The rates in Idaho (2.8 percent), Oregon (3.8 percent), South Carolina (3.4 percent), and Washington (4.5 percent) set new series lows. (All state series begin in 1976.) Alaska had the highest jobless rate, 6.7 percent. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the number of states (and D.C.) with unemployment rates at or above certain levels since January 1976. At the worst of the great recession, there were 11 states with an unemployment rate at or above 11% (red). Currently only one state, Alaska, has an unemployment rate at or above 6% (dark blue).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:36 AM » Commercial Real Estate Cycles — Q2 2018
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 10:36 AM by blog.stewart.com
    This is the Must Have quarterly report for those in commercial real estate For me this is the most timely read quarterly information regarding Commercial Real Estate — Dr. Glenn Mueller's Real Estate Cycles Q2 2018 report from Black Creek Group - Black Creek Research. The report contains valuable data spanning major commercial real … Read more
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: blog.stewart.com
  • 10:09 AM » U.S. 'very close' to proceeding with Mexico-only trade deal: Trump adviser
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 10:09 AM by Reuters
    The United States is getting "very, very close" to having to move forward on its trade deal with Mexico without Canada, White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett said on Friday.
  • 9:45 AM » Vinyl and Stucco are the Most Common Siding On New Homes
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 9:45 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The most common exterior wall materials on homes started in 2017 were vinyl and siding. Vinyl siding was used on 27 percent of the new homes started in 2017, followed closely by stucco (25 percent), brick or brick veneer (21 percent), and fiber cement siding (such as Hardiplank or Hardiboard) (20 percent). Far smaller shares of single-family homes started last year... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 9:02 AM » Over 62,000 still without power in the Carolinas after Florence
    Published Fri, Sep 21 2018 9:02 AM by Reuters
    More than 62,000 homes and businesses in the Carolinas were still without power on Friday, a week after Hurricane Florence hit the North Carolina coast on Sept. 14, according to local power companies.
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