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  • Tue, May 22 2018
  • 4:07 PM » FDIC: Fewer Problem banks, Residential REO Declined in Q1
    Published Tue, May 22 2018 4:07 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The FDIC released the Quarterly Banking Profile for Q1 today: Aggregate net income for the 5,606 FDIC-insured commercial banks and savings institutions reporting first quarter performance totaled $56 billion in first quarter 2018 , an increase of $12.1 billion (27.5 percent) from a year earlier. Improvement in net income was attributable to higher net operating revenue (the sum of net interest income and noninterest income) and a lower effective tax rate, but was offset in part by higher loan-loss provisions and noninterest expense. ... The Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) balance increased by $2.3 billion, to $95.1 billion, during the first quarter. No banks failed during the quarter . ... The DIF's reserve ratio (the fund balance as a percent of estimated insured deposits) was 1.30 percent on March 31, 2018, unchanged from year-end 2017 due primarily to strong first quarter growth in estimated insured deposits. The reserve ratio increased by ten basis points from one year earlier. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The FDIC reported the number of problem banks declined slightly. This graph from the FDIC shows the number of problem banks declined to 92 institutions from 95 at the end of 2017. Note: The number of assets for problem banks increased significantly, suggesting a fairly large bank was added to the list (more on this when we update the unofficial list at the end of the month). The dollar value of 1-4 family residential Real Estate Owned (REOs, foreclosure houses) declined from $2.92 billion in Q4 2017 to $2.84 billion in Q1. This is the lowest level of REOs since Q3 2006. This graph shows the nominal dollar value of Residential REO for FDIC insured institutions. Note: The FDIC reports the dollar value and not the total number of REOs. Since REOs are reported in dollars, and house prices have increased, it is unlikely FDIC institution REOs will get back to the $2.0 to $2.5 billion range back that happened in 2003 to 2005.    FDIC...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:31 PM » Unemployment Rate Is Lowest in Yearsâ€"and Many Americans Are Just Hanging On
    Published Tue, May 22 2018 3:31 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Unemployment Rate Is Lowest in Years-and Many Americans Are Just Hanging On Bloomberg Many U.S. households remain in a precarious financial position despite unemployment falling to the lowest level in years, a new Federal Reserve survey shows. The results of the Fed's 2017 report on the the economic well-being of U.S. households, which ...
  • 3:30 PM » Standards on AD&C Loans Ease, Interest Rates Expected to Rise
    Published Tue, May 22 2018 3:30 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    Builders and developers responding to NAHB's AD&C Financing Survey continue to report easing credit conditions for acquisition, development, and single-family construction loans, over the first quarter of 2018, but the pace of easing slowed. At the same time, the majority of survey respondents indicated that the typical loan they obtained in the first quarter of 2018 was tied to a... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 2:06 PM » Existing Home Sales: Take the Under for April
    Published Tue, May 22 2018 2:06 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Housing economist Tom Lawler has been sending me his predictions of what the NAR will report for 8+ years.  The table below shows the consensus for each month, Lawler's predictions, and the NAR's initially reported level of sales.  Lawler hasn't always been closer than the consensus, but usually when there has been a fairly large spread between Lawler's estimate and the "consensus", Lawler has been closer. As an example, last month (March 2018) the consensus was for sales of 5.28 million on a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) basis. Lawler estimated 5.51 million, and the NAR reported 5.60 million (the consensus missed by 320 thousand compared to 90 thousand for Lawler). NOTE: There have been times when Lawler "missed", but then he pointed out an apparent error in the NAR data - and the subsequent revision corrected that error.  As an example, see: The "Curious Case" of Existing Home Sales in the South in April For April 2018, the consensus is that the NAR will report sales of 5.60 million  SAAR. However,  housing economist Tom Lawler estimates the NAR will report sales of 5.48 million. Lawler's estimate is a little below the consensus, so I'd take the under for April. Note: The NAR is scheduled to report April Existing Home Sales on Thursday, May 24th at 10:00 AM ET. Over the last eight years, the consensus average miss was 145 thousand, and  Lawler's average miss was 69 thousand. Existing Home Sales, Forecasts and NAR Report millions, seasonally adjusted annual rate basis (SAAR) Month Consensus Lawler NAR reported 1 May-10 6.20 5.83 5.66 Jun-10 5.30 5.30 5.37 Jul-10 4.66 3.95 3.83 Aug-10 4.10 4.10 4.13 Sep-10 4.30 4.50 4.53 Oct-10 4.50 4.46 4.43 Nov-10 4.85 4.61 4.68 Dec-10 4.90 5.13 5.28 Jan-11 5.20 5.17 5.36 Feb-11 5.15 5.00 4.88 Mar-11 5.00 5.08 5.10 Apr-11 5.20 5.15 5.05 May-11 4.75 4.80 4.81 Jun-11 4.90 4.71 4.77 Jul-11 4.92 4.69 4.67 Aug-11 4.75...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:48 PM » Rising Rates Suppress Homebuilder Stocks Despite Housing Demand
    Published Tue, May 22 2018 1:48 PM by Bloomberg
    Rising Rates Suppress Homebuilder Stocks Despite Housing Demand Bloomberg Bloomberg Markets AM with Pimm Fox and Lisa Abramowicz. GUEST: Drew Reading, Homebuilder Analyst for Bloomberg Intelligence, on Toll Brothers earnings, and why homebuilders have been doing poorly. Running time 06:18. Before it's here, it's on the ...
  • 1:34 PM » Dodd-Frank Changes 'Thoughtful, Common Sense,' ABA CEO Says
    Published Tue, May 22 2018 1:34 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Dodd-Frank Changes 'Thoughtful, Common Sense,' ABA CEO Says Bloomberg Rob Nichols, chief executive officer at American Bankers Association, discusses the upcoming vote by the House of Representatives on a bipartisan bill to amend Dodd-Frank regulations. He speaks with Bloomberg's David Westin on "Bloomberg Markets.
  • 12:25 PM » 'Big Number' on Dodd-Frank Isn't as Big as Republicans Wanted
    Published Tue, May 22 2018 12:25 PM by Bloomberg
    'Big Number' on Dodd-Frank Isn't as Big as Republicans Wanted Bloomberg U.S. lawmakers are set to give President Donald Trump a chance to make good on his vow to "do a big number" on the Dodd-Frank Act. Legislation set for passage by the Republican-dominated House this week is the product of years of financial-industry ... and more »
  • 11:09 AM » Richmond Fed: "Fifth District Manufacturing Firms Reported Robust Growth in May"
    Published Tue, May 22 2018 11:09 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Richmond Fed: Fifth District Manufacturing Firms Reported Robust Growth in May Fifth District manufacturing firms saw robust growth in May, according to survey results from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite index swung from -3 in April to 16 in May , boosted by growth in the indexes for shipments, new orders, and employment. Local business conditions also moved back into expansionary territory, after weakening in April, and firms remained optimistic that growth would continue in coming months. Survey results indicate that both employment and wages rose among manufacturing firms in May [Index for number of employees increased from 12 to 18], however, firms still struggled to find the skills they needed. They expect this struggle to continue in the next six months and also expect employment and wages to increase further. Many manufacturing firms continued to increase spending in May. The growth rate of prices paid continued to rise, on average, but firms seemed able to pass some of change through to customers, as prices received also grew at a faster rate. emphasis added All of the regional manufacturing reports for May have been solid so far.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:53 AM » Who Is Tomorrow's Borrower? What We're Learning Might Surprise You
    Published Tue, May 22 2018 10:53 AM by Freddie Mac
    By Christina Boyle, SVP Single-Family Chief Client Officer We're working on ways to provide lenders with a better understanding of future borrowers' hopes and fears, characteristics and challenges as they relate to homeownership. Read More
  • 10:35 AM » Too Big to Fix: Fannie and Freddie Are Still a Mess
    Published Tue, May 22 2018 10:35 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Too Big to Fix: Fannie and Freddie Are Still a Mess Bloomberg Will anyone ever fix Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac? When the two mortgage giants were taken under federal control a decade ago -- the same year Donald Trump kicked off the first season of Celebrity Apprentice -- regulators saw the move as a short timeout. and more »
  • 9:38 AM » The Changing Mix of Light Vehicle Sales
    Published Tue, May 22 2018 9:38 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Whenever I'm driving, it seems like I'm surrounded by more and more SUVs and trucks. So I thought I'd look at the changing mix of vehicle sales over time (between passenger cars and light trucks / SUVs). The first graph below shows the mix of sales since 1976 (Blue is cars, Red is light trucks and SUVs). Click on graph for larger image. The mix has changed significantly. Back in 1976, most light vehicles were passenger cars - however car sales have trended down over time. Note that the big dips in sales are related to economic recessions (early '80s, early '90s, and the Great Recession of 2007 through mid-2009). The second graph shows the percent of light vehicle sales between passenger cars and trucks / SUVs. Over time the mix has changed toward more and more light trucks and SUVs. Only when oil prices are high, does the trend slow or reverse. Recently oil prices have been fairly low (now increasing), and the percent of light trucks and SUVs is almost up to 70%.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:43 AM » Stock futures rise as U.S.-China trade talks advance
    Published Tue, May 22 2018 8:43 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures rose on Tuesday on signs of further progress in trade talks between the United States and China as the world's two largest economies pull back from the brink of a full-blown trade war.
  • 8:42 AM » Goldman Sachs: The fiscal outlook for the US 'is not good'
    Published Tue, May 22 2018 8:42 AM by CNBC
    The fiscal outlook for the United States "is not good," according to Goldman Sachs, and could pose a threat to the country's economic security during the next recession.
  • Mon, May 21 2018
  • 4:15 PM » Corporate Bonds Sink Fast in One of Worst Tumbles Since 2000
    Published Mon, May 21 2018 4:15 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Corporate Bonds Sink Fast in One of Worst Tumbles Since 2000 Bloomberg You need to rifle through 18 years of history to find selloffs that compare to the one corporate bond investors are now enduring. Debt of American companies just posted their third-worst 100-day returns since 2000, according to a JPMorgan Chase & Co ...
  • 3:03 PM » Ten Years Ago: Looking back at a Foreclosure
    Published Mon, May 21 2018 3:03 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Ten years ago today, I wrote House Price Mosaic . This was a discussion of how areas with significant foreclosure activity were seeing larger price declines (as expected). In the post, I mentioned a foreclosure that Jim the Realtor had listed for sale at 260 Securidad St in Oceanside, CA. For fun, I took a look at that house. The house had sold for $318,000 in July 2004, and according to Jim, the owner refinanced a year later for a total of $375,000 in loans. The house sold for $140,000 in June 2008 at foreclosure. Now the house would probably sell for double the foreclosure price.    That is a crazy ride.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:03 PM » Banking overhaul heading for likely passage in Congress. Here's how it affects you
    Published Mon, May 21 2018 3:03 PM by CNBC
    The House is expected to vote soon on a Senate-passed measure that eases regulations on banks.
  • 1:58 PM » How much money Americans think is enough to live comfortably
    Published Mon, May 21 2018 1:58 PM by CNBC
    Charles Schwab asked respondents what it takes to be "comfortable."
  • 12:47 PM » Consumer debt set to reach record $4 trillion by the end of the year
    Published Mon, May 21 2018 12:47 PM by CNBC
    American consumers are spending about 10 percent of their incomes every month paying non-mortgage related debts. Experts weigh in on how you make sure you aren't overleveraged.
  • 12:01 PM » Banks Are Getting Another Volcker Rule Win
    Published Mon, May 21 2018 12:01 PM by Bloomberg
    Banks Are Getting Another Volcker Rule Win Bloomberg Banks have long complained that steep compliance burdens make it almost impossible to use an important break they got in the Volcker Rule to hedge against losses. In their coming overhaul, the Federal Reserve and other regulators are expected to ...
  • 11:31 AM » Goldman: Don't worry about rising interest rates until the 10-year yield hits 4%
    Published Mon, May 21 2018 11:31 AM by CNBC
    David Kostin, Goldman's chief U.S. equity strategist, says investors should not worry about rising interest rates until the 10-year Treasury yield zeroes in on 4 percent.
  • 10:55 AM » 3 things to do if you can't afford a down payment but still want to buy a home
    Published Mon, May 21 2018 10:55 AM by CNBC
    You can still become a homeowner even if you can't afford to put 20 percent down.
  • 10:32 AM » National Association of Realtors® to Launch .realestate Top-Level Domain
    Published Mon, May 21 2018 10:32 AM by PR Newswire
    WASHINGTON, May 21, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- The National Association of Realtors® will be launching a new top-level domain, .realestate, later this year. The new domain extension is scheduled to be available in September for members of NAR, with a late November release to the general public....
  • 9:43 AM » Another Top-10 List — Fastest Growing Existing Home Median Prices
    Published Mon, May 21 2018 9:43 AM by blog.stewart.com
    Home prices are a pure function of the interaction of supply and demand. Strong job growth, rising wages (the average hourly wage in the U.S. is up 2.6 percent in the prior 12-months), rising rents and lack of supply is propelling prices upwards in most markets. In the latest 12-months the U.S. added 2.281 million … Read more
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: blog.stewart.com
  • 8:55 AM » Want to Buy or Sell a Home for Less? Look to Blockchain Technology
    Published Mon, May 21 2018 8:55 AM by www.realtor.com
    Blockchain, the digital technology behind bitcoin, is starting to be used in real estate-and it could soon disrupt how homes are bought, sold, and insured. The post Want to Buy or Sell a Home for Less? Look to Blockchain Technology appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 8:52 AM » Freddie Mac Launches "Borrower of the Future(SM)" Campaign to Improve the Housing Finance System and Better Serve the Next Generation of Homeowners
    Published Mon, May 21 2018 8:52 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Launches "Borrower of the Future(SM)" Campaign to Improve the Housing Finance System and Better Serve the Next Generation of Homeowners
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 8:51 AM » Single-Family Home Size Increases at the Start of 2018
    Published Mon, May 21 2018 8:51 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    Counter to the recent prevailing trend, new single-family home size increased at start of 2018. New home size had been falling over the last two years due to an incremental move to additional entry-level home construction. According to first quarter 2018 data from the Census Quarterly Starts and Completions by Purpose and Design and NAHB analysis, median single-family square floor area increased to 2,436 square... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:50 AM » Pimco Sees US Treasury Yields Likely Topping Out at 3.5%
    Published Mon, May 21 2018 8:50 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Pimco Sees US Treasury Yields Likely Topping Out at 3.5% Bloomberg Pimco co-head of Asia-Pacific Portfolio Management Robert Mead discusses U.S. Treasuries, and talks about the bond market. He speaks on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Australia." (Source: Bloomberg). Terms of Service Trademarks Privacy Policy ©2018 ...
  • 8:48 AM » HUD Secretary Ben Carson doubles down on dismantling Obama-era fair-housing policies
    Published Mon, May 21 2018 8:48 AM by Washington Post
    HUD announced that it is withdrawing a computer assessment tool that provides communities with demographic data and maps to help them gauge neighborhood segregation.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Washington Post
  • Fri, May 18 2018
  • 3:08 PM » Good Overview of Italian Political Situation (Which is Affecting Bond Markets)
    Published Fri, May 18 2018 3:08 PM by www.independent.co.uk
    Two Italian, populist, eurosceptic parties have reached an agreement to form a government of the eurozone's third largest economy, setting up the single currency bloc for a possible new crisis.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.independent.co.uk
  • 3:03 PM » In-Person Home Appraisals Won't Be Required for Some Loans: Should You Get One Anyway?
    Published Fri, May 18 2018 3:03 PM by www.realtor.com
    Some borrowers may no longer be required to get formal property appraisals, which could save them hundreds of dollars and speed up the closing process. The post In-Person Home Appraisals Won’t Be Required for Some Loans: Should You Get One Anyway? appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 2:35 PM » "CAR: California Existing Single-Family Home Inventory Shows First YOY Gain in a Long While"
    Published Fri, May 18 2018 2:35 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From housing economist Tom Lawler: CAR: California Existing Single-Family Home Inventory Shows First YOY Gain in a Long While From the California Association of Realtors monthly home sales report for April: "Statewide active listings (of existing single-family homes) finally reversed nearly three years of decreases after rising 1.9% (YOY) in April." CR Note: Here is a table from housing economist Tom Lawler showing the year-over-year (YoY) change for National inventory from the NAR, and the YoY change for California from the CAR. It appears the YoY declines are slowing nationally, and inventory has started to increase YoY in California. YOY % Change, Existing SF Homes for Sale   NAR (National) CAR (California) Sep-17 -8.4% -11.2% Oct-17 -10.4% -11.5% Nov-17 -9.7% -11.5% Dec-17 -11.5% -12.0% Jan-18 -9.5% -6.6% Feb-18 -8.6% -1.3% Mar-18 -7.2% -1.0% Apr-18 -5.7% 1 1.9% 1 Estimate by Tom Lawler based on local reports. 
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:40 PM » The Era of Low Mortgage Rates Is Over
    Published Fri, May 18 2018 1:40 PM by www.realtor.com
    Mortgage rates this week jumped to their highest level since 2011, signaling a shift from a period of ultracheap loans to a higher-rate environment that could slow home price appreciation and squeeze first-time buyers. The post The Era of Low Mortgage Rates Is Over appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 11:20 AM » Realtors® Say Commercial Market on the Upswing, Construction Activity Sluggish
    Published Fri, May 18 2018 11:20 AM by PR Newswire
    WASHINGTON, May 18, 2018 /PRNewswire/ -- A strengthening economy and job growth nearing historic levels have given Realtors® confidence in future commercial real estate market conditions, according to speakers at a commercial real estate forum during the 2018 REALTORS® Legislative...
  • 10:41 AM » Freddie Mac Announces the Home Possible RISE Award(SM) Winners
    Published Fri, May 18 2018 10:41 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Announces the Home Possible RISE Award(SM) Winners
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 10:16 AM » BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 4 states in April; California, Hawaii and Wisconsin at New Series Lows
    Published Fri, May 18 2018 10:16 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were lower in April in 4 states and stable in 46 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Twelve states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier and 38 states and the District had little or no change. The national unemployment rate edged down from March to 3.9 percent and was 0.5 percentage point lower than in April 2017 ... Hawaii had the lowest unemployment rate in April, 2.0 percent. The rates in California (4.2 percent), Hawaii (2.0 percent), and Wisconsin (2.8 percent) set new series lows. (All state series begin in 1976.) Alaska had the highest jobless rate, 7.3 percent. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the number of states (and D.C.) with unemployment rates at or above certain levels since January 2006. At the worst of the employment recession, there were 11 states with an unemployment rate at or above 11% (red). Currently only one state, Alaska, has an unemployment rate at or above 7% (light blue); And only Alaska is above 6% (dark blue).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:55 AM » Fed's Mester Warns Against Dismantling Post-Crisis Bank Reforms
    Published Fri, May 18 2018 9:55 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Fed's Mester Warns Against Dismantling Post-Crisis Bank Reforms Bloomberg Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester warned against dismantling core reforms that have made U.S. banks better able to withstand a financial crisis. "It would be a mistake to unwind the steps taken since the financial crisis that ... and more »
  • 8:36 AM » A floating Pacific island is in the works with its own government, cryptocurrency and 300 houses
    Published Fri, May 18 2018 8:36 AM by CNBC
    The Floating Island Project is a pilot program in partnership with the government of French Polynesia, which will see 300 homes built on an island that runs under its own governance, using a cryptocurrency called Varyon.
  • 8:34 AM » Direct Home Buyer OfferPad Secures Another $150M in Funding
    Published Fri, May 18 2018 8:34 AM by www.builderonline.com
    Direct Home Buyer OfferPad Secures Another $150M in Funding
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • Thu, May 17 2018
  • 2:48 PM » Surging Mortgage Rates Set Off Scramble to Buy Homes
    Published Thu, May 17 2018 2:48 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Surging Mortgage Rates Set Off Scramble to Buy Homes Bloomberg U.S. homebuyers, already contending with escalating prices, now are getting hit with the most-expensive mortgage rates in seven years. Funny thing: It's only making them move faster. The average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage jumped to 4.61 percent, ... and more »
  • 2:04 PM » Bond Traders Show Little Fear of Fed Yield-Curve 'Inversion Put'
    Published Thu, May 17 2018 2:04 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Bond Traders Show Little Fear of Fed Yield-Curve 'Inversion Put' Bloomberg If Federal Reserve officials were trying to signal that they want to keep the Treasury yield curve from inverting, it doesn't look like bond traders got the message. Sure, the curve steepened this week by just about every measure. But it wasn't from a ...
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Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 4.77%
  • |
  • 15 Yr FRM 4.21%
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  • Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.80%
MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 103-20 (0-00)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 105-17 (-0-00)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 107-10 (0-00)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps -1.15%
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  • Refinance Index -2.64%
  • |
  • Purchase Index 5.06%