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  • Fri, Nov 17 2017
  • 4:38 PM » Don't expect 'easy gains' of 2017 to be repeated next year, says top strategist Jason Trennert
    Published Fri, Nov 17 2017 4:38 PM by CNBC
    Even if most of Trump's economic agenda is passed, stock market gains may still slow, said Strategas Research Partners' Jason Trennert.
  • 3:35 PM » Goldman Sachs says if you thought 2017 was surprisingly good, just wait for 2018
    Published Fri, Nov 17 2017 3:35 PM by CNBC
    Goldman analyst Charles Himmelberg says there are several factors that should contribute to further global economic growth.
  • 3:32 PM » Has US Household Growth Slowed, and If So, Why?
    Published Fri, Nov 17 2017 3:32 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From housing economist Tom Lawler: Has US Household Growth Slowed, and If So, Why? Yesterday the Census Bureau released estimates of America's Families and Living Arrangements (which includes household estimates) based on the Annual Social and Economic Supplement of the CPS for March 2017, and the estimates suggested that US household growth slowed considerably in the 12-month period ending this March - though by less than that shown in the Census Bureau's tables. According to the data released yesterday, the CPS/ASEC-based estimate of the number of US households in March 2017 was 126.224 million, up just 405,000 from the March 2016 household estimate of 125.819 million from the 2016 CPS/ASEC. As I noted in an earlier report, however, this meager yearly gain is understated, because the 2016 CPS/ASEC estimates were based on "2015 Vintage" population estimates for 2016, and last year Census (in its "2016 Vintage" release) revised down considerably its population estimates for 2016 (and for earlier years.) Annoyingly, Census does not go back and revise earlier year CPS/ASEC household estimates to reflect revisions in population estimates. For example, CPS/ASEC tables show an increase in the US adult (18+) civilian non-institutionalized population of just 0.59%, from March 2016 to March 2017, while Census' updated population estimates shown an increase of 0.89% over this period (again, reflecting a downward revision to 2016 estimates). If one were to adjust the 2016 CPS/ASEC household estimate to reflect the downward revisions in 2016 population estimates, the "adjusted" CPS/ASEC household estimate would be about 125.445 million, and the "adjusted" increase in the CPS/ASEC household estimate for 2017 would be about 779,000. This "adjusted" gain still represents a marked slowed in estimated household growth. The CPS/ASEC-based slowdown in household growth for 2017 (an "adjusted" increase of 0.62%, compared...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:24 PM » Nationwide Seller's Market Reigns as Home Prices Climb
    Published Fri, Nov 17 2017 12:24 PM by PR Newswire
    DENVER, Nov. 17, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Despite record low inventory for the month, October home sales increased 2.5% year-over-year and kept 2017 prices ahead of 2016, according to this month's RE/MAX National Housing Report. To access the housing report infographic, visit: rem.ax/2cYFT50....
  • 12:09 PM » Declining New Home Size Trend Continues
    Published Fri, Nov 17 2017 12:09 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    After increasing and leveling off in recent years, new single-family home size continued along a general trend of decreasing size during the third quarter of 2017. This change marks a reversal of the trend that had been in place as builders focused on the higher end of the market during the recovery. As the entry-level market expands, NAHB expects typical new home size... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 11:36 AM » Freddie Mac Prices $279 Million Offering of Guaranteed Tax-Exempt ML Certificates
    Published Fri, Nov 17 2017 11:36 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Prices $279 Million Offering of Guaranteed Tax-Exempt ML Certificates
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 11:14 AM » MBA: Mortgage Delinquency Rate increases in Q3 mostly due to Hurricanes
    Published Fri, Nov 17 2017 11:14 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the MBA: Delinquencies Up in MBA's National Delinquency Survey for Q3 2017 The delinquency rate for mortgage loans on one-to-four-unit residential properties increased to a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.88 percent of all loans outstanding at the end of the third quarter of 2017 . The delinquency rate was up 64 basis points from the previous quarter, and was 36 basis points higher than one year ago, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) National Delinquency Survey. The percentage of loans on which foreclosure actions were started during the third quarter was 0.25 percent, a decrease of one basis point from the previous quarter, and five basis points lower than one year ago. The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in the process of foreclosure. The percentage of loans in the foreclosure process at the end of the third quarter was 1.23 percent , down 6 basis points from the previous quarter and 32 basis points lower than one year ago. The serious delinquency rate, the percentage of loans that are 90 days or more past due or in the process of foreclosure, was 2.52 percent in the third quarter , up 3 basis points from the previous quarter, but 44 basis points lower than one year ago. Marina Walsh, MBA's Vice President of Industry Analysis, offered the following commentary on the survey: "In the third quarter of 2017, the overall delinquency rate rose by 64 basis points over the previous quarter, with the 30-day delinquency rate accounting for 50 basis points of this variance. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria caused disruptions and destruction in numerous states. Florida, Texas, neighboring states, as well as devastated Puerto Rico, saw substantial increases in their past due rates . While forbearance is in place for many borrowers affected by these storms, our survey asks servicers to report these loans as delinquent if the payment was not made based on the original terms...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:52 AM » Draghi Says Pay Gains to Ease ECB Pressure as Labor Tightens
    Published Fri, Nov 17 2017 10:52 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Draghi Says Pay Gains to Ease ECB Pressure as Labor Tightens Bloomberg Mario Draghi predicted that euro-area workers will soon start winning bigger pay increases, relieving pressure on his European Central Bank to keep supporting the economy. The ECB president, who has for years struggled to combat low inflation ... and more »
  • 10:52 AM » BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 12 states in October; Alabama, Hawaii and Texas at New Series Lows
    Published Fri, Nov 17 2017 10:52 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note from the BLS on Puerto Rico: The Puerto Rico household survey was conducted for the October 2017 reference period. However, the response rate was below average, in part as a result of difficulties accessing some remote areas that were significantly affected by Hurricanes Irma and Maria. From the BLS: Regional and State Employment and Unemployment Summary Unemployment rates were lower in October in 12 states , higher in 1 state, and stable in 37 states and the District of Columbia, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Twenty-three states had jobless rate decreases from a year earlier, 2 states and the District had increases, and 25 states had little or no change. The national unemployment rate edged down to 4.1 percent in October and was 0.7 percentage point lower than a year earlier. ... Hawaii had the lowest unemployment rate in October, 2.2 percent, followed by North Dakota, 2.5 percent. The rates in Alabama (3.6 percent), Hawaii (2.2 percent), and Texas (3.9 percent) set new series lows . ... Alaska had the highest jobless rate, 7.2 percent. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the current unemployment rate for each state (red), and the max during the recession (blue). All states are well below the maximum unemployment rate for the recession. The size of the blue bar indicates the amount of improvement.   The yellow squares are the lowest unemployment rate per state since 1976. Fourteen states have reached new all time lows since the end of the 2007 recession.  These fourteen states are: Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, Mississippi, North Dakota, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas, Washington, and Wisconsin. The states are ranked by the highest current unemployment rate. Alaska, at 7.2%, had the highest state unemployment rate. The second graph shows the number of states (and D.C.) with unemployment rates at or above certain levels since January 2006. At the worst of the employment...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:36 AM » Investors are fleeing junk bonds in near record numbers, a troubling signal for the stock market
    Published Fri, Nov 17 2017 10:36 AM by CNBC
    Funds that track junk bonds saw $6.8 billion of outflows over the past week, third highest on record, according to BofAML.
  • 8:43 AM » US home construction reaches strongest pace in a year
    Published Fri, Nov 17 2017 8:43 AM by CNBC
    U.S. housing starts were forecast to total 1.18 million in October, up from the 1.13 million reported for the previous month.
  • 8:23 AM » Treasury Secretary Mnuchin says he expects tax cut bill will be sent to Trump to sign by Christmas
    Published Fri, Nov 17 2017 8:23 AM by CNBC
    Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin appeared in an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Friday.
  • 8:21 AM » Senate Panel Approves Tax Plan as GOP Leaders Gird for Battle
    Published Fri, Nov 17 2017 8:21 AM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Senate Panel Approves Tax Plan as GOP Leaders Gird for Battle Bloomberg Hours after House Republicans jubilantly passed their tax bill, their colleagues on the Senate Finance Committee approved a far different version -- one that postpones difficult questions as lawmakers rush to refashion much of the U.S. economy on a ... and more »
  • 8:18 AM » President Trump to appoint Mick Mulvaney CFPB Acting Director
    Published Fri, Nov 17 2017 8:18 AM by www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
    According to media reports, President Trump is expected to name Mick Mulvaney, the current Director of the Office of Management and Budget, to serve as CFPB Acting Director upon Director Cordray’s resignation. The President’s announcement may come as soon as today. Assuming the media reports are accurate, they indicate that the White House has decided... Continue Reading
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.consumerfinancemonitor.com
  • Thu, Nov 16 2017
  • 4:14 PM » Trump interested in naming budget director Mulvaney to consumer protection bureau
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 4:14 PM by CNBC
    President Donald Trump is considering naming Michael Mulvaney, currently the White House budget director, to head the CFPB.
  • 4:14 PM » Phoenix Real Estate in October: Sales up 4%, Inventory down 10% YoY
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 4:14 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying. The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports (table below): 1) Overall sales in October were up 4.3% year-over-year (including homes, condos and manufactured homes). 2) Active inventory is now down 10.1% year-over-year.   More inventory (a theme in most of 2014) - and less investor buying - suggested price increases would slow in 2014.  And prices increases did slow in 2014, only increasing 2.4% according to Case-Shiller. In 2015, with falling inventory, prices increased a little faster.  Prices were up 6.3% in 2015 according to Case-Shiller. With flat inventory in 2016, prices were up 4.8%. This is the twelfth consecutive month with a YoY decrease in inventory, and prices are rising a little faster this year (3.7% through August or 5.7% annual rate). October Residential Sales and Inventory, Greater Phoenix Area, ARMLS   Sales YoY Change Sales Cash Sales Percent Cash Active Inventory YoY Change Inventory Oct-08 5,384 --- 1,348 25.0% 55,703 1 --- Oct-09 8,121 50.8% 2,688 33.1% 39,312 -29.4% Oct-10 6,591 -18.8% 2,800 42.5% 45,252 15.1% Oct-11 7,561 14.7% 3,336 44.1% 27,266 -39.7% Oct-12 7,020 -7.2% 3,081 43.9% 22,702 -16.7% Oct-13 6,038 -14.0% 1,910 31.6% 26,267 15.7% Oct-14 6,186 2.5% 1,712 27.7% 27,760 5.7% Oct-15 6,308 2.0% 1,570 24.9% 24,702 -11.0% Oct-16 7,102 12.6% 1,494 21.0% 24,950 1.0% Oct-17 7,408 4.3% 1,578 21.3% 22,427 10.1% 1 October 2008 probably includes pending listings
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:29 PM » Latest estimate shows Senate tax plan would leave low-income households with higher tax bills
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 2:29 PM by CNBC
    The Senate's latest tax plan would lavish billions of dollars in tax cuts on the wealthiest Americans but leave those at the bottom of the income ladder with higher taxes. That's what the latest estimate shows from the Joint Committee on Taxation, released Thursday as the House was set to vote on a separate version of a tax overhaul.
  • 2:29 PM » Fed's Kaplan: Overshooting employment goal could trigger rate hike
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 2:29 PM by CNBC
    Unemployment, now at 4.1 percent, is expected to fall further, he said.
  • 2:29 PM » Freddie Mac Announces Reentry into Low-Income Housing Tax Credit Market
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 2:29 PM by www.freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Announces Reentry into Low-Income Housing Tax Credit Market
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 2:29 PM » House of Representatives approves tax package, shifts fight to Senate
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 2:29 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. House of Representatives approved a package of tax cuts affecting businesses, individuals and families on Thursday, moving Republicans and President Donald Trump an important step closer to the biggest tax code overhaul in a generation.
  • 1:13 PM » Homeownership doesn't build wealth, study finds
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 1:13 PM by CNBC
    Even with high rents, consumers will build more wealth by investing and not owning, a study shows.
  • 12:13 PM » Earlier: Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey showed "Activity Continues to Expand" in November
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 12:13 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Earlier from the Philly Fed: November 2017 Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey Regional manufacturing activity continued to expand in November, according to results from this month's Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The indexes for general activity and shipments fell from their October readings but remained positive, while the survey's index for new orders rose. The employment index fell but remained elevated. Almost all of the future indicators rose, and firms continue to expect growth in both activity and employment over the next six months. ... The diffusion index for current manufacturing activity in the region remained positive but decreased from a reading of 27.9 in October to 22.7 in November . The index has been positive for 16 consecutive months. ... Firms continued to report increases in employment, though at a slower pace relative to last month. While the c urrent employment index has been positive for 12 consecutive months, it fell 8 points to 22.6 in November . emphasis added Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index: Click on graph for larger image. The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through November), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through October) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through October (right axis). This suggests the ISM manufacturing index might decline in November, but still show solid expansion.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:19 AM » Hutchins Roundup: Forecast targeting, labor force participation of older Americans, and more
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 11:19 AM by webfeeds.brookings.edu
    Studies in this week's Hutchins Roundup find that forecast targeting is the best policy rule for the Fed to follow, older Americans would work longer if job hours were more flexible, and more. Want to receive the Hutchins Roundup as an email? Sign up here to get it in your inbox every Thursday. Forecast targeting…                
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: webfeeds.brookings.edu
  • 10:58 AM » Freddie Mac Prices $1 Billion Multifamily K-Deal Backed by Seasoned Loans
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 10:58 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Freddie Mac Prices $1 Billion Multifamily K-Deal Backed by Seasoned Loans
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 10:31 AM » Mortgage Rates Bounce Up
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 10:31 AM by freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
    Mortgage Rates Bounce Up
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com
  • 10:12 AM » Home builder confidence hits 8-month high in November
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 10:12 AM by CNBC
    Home builder confidence rises as builders see more sales and more buyer traffic.
  • 9:45 AM » ECB board member says normalization of interest rates will be gradual
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 9:45 AM by CNBC
    Yves Mersch, a board member at the European Central Bank, told CNBC that the central bank will be gradual with its return to normal monetary policy.
  • 9:21 AM » US Treasurys edge lower as investors gear up for bumper batch of data; Fed speeches in focus
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 9:21 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were lower on Thursday, as investors pivoted their attention to the upcoming slew of economic data due out.
  • 9:20 AM » US industrial production rose 0.9% in Oct, vs 0.5% increase expected
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 9:20 AM by CNBC
    Economists polled by Reuters expected industrial output to increase 0.5 percent in October.
  • 8:59 AM » US weekly jobless claims unexpectedly rise
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 8:59 AM by CNBC
    The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits unexpectedly rose last week.
  • 8:58 AM » US import prices rise less than expected in October
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 8:58 AM by CNBC
    Import prices rose less than expected in October as an increase in the cost of imported petroleum and capital goods was offset by a decline in food prices.
  • 8:16 AM » Can investors use macro analysis?
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 8:16 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Two weeks ago I posted five economic questions I'm frequently asked .  Since then I've discussed: 1) Are house prices in a new bubble? 2) Is a recession imminent (within the next 12 months)? 3) Is the stock market a bubble? Today I will discuss: Can investors use macro analysis? Macro is the analysis of the economy as a whole (GDP, Unemployment, inflation, demographics), as opposed to the analysis of individual companies (or individuals). Sometimes we can use macro trends to help with sector analysis. An example of the later would the apartment sector. It was in 2010 that I started discussing the turnaround for apartments. Then, in January 2011, I attended the NMHC Apartment Strategies Conference in Palm Springs, and the atmosphere was very positive . My analysis was based on three factors: low volume of new supply, a large cohort moving into their 20s (the prime renting age), and people moving from owning to renting (the foreclosure crisis).   2010 and 2011 was a great time to invest in apartments. Another example of macro sector analysis was in January 2009, when I wrote about the auto sector: Vehicle Sales . It was pretty easy to predict sales were near a bottom, and that auto sales would "increase significantly" going forward. We can also use macro analysis to follow the business cycle.  However analysts have a poor track record in calling turns in the business cycle. As an example, ECRI called a recession in September 2011, and finally threw in the towel in May 2015 .  If investors sold when ECRI first made their recession call in Sept 2011, they would have missed close to a 75% increase in the market ! Note: This is partially from a previous post and is NOT intended as investment advice. Why are investors so focused on the business cycle? Obviously earnings decline in a recession, and stock prices fall too. The following graph shows the year-over-year (YoY) change in the S&P 500 (using average monthly...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:16 AM » Factors That Shape Home Buyer Preferences
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 8:16 AM by www.builderonline.com
    Factors That Shape Home Buyer Preferences
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.builderonline.com
  • 8:16 AM » What Happens to the Real Estate Market When Supply Falls for 25 Straight Months?
    Published Thu, Nov 16 2017 8:16 AM by www.redfin.com
    Home price growth was strong in October, up 7.6 percent compared to a year ago to a national median sale price of $288,000 across the markets Redfin serves. Sales were essentially unchanged from October of last year, down 0.1 percent. Home sales have declined year over year for the past four months. "Despite strong buyer […] The post What Happens to the Real Estate Market When Supply Falls for 25 Straight Months? appeared first on Redfin Real-Time .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • Wed, Nov 15 2017
  • 3:47 PM » Consumer protections may wither as CFPB head Cordray departs, observers say
    Published Wed, Nov 15 2017 3:47 PM by CNBC
    The future is foggy for this six-year-old federal agency. Customers have received close to $12 billion in relief from regulatory actions.
  • 3:45 PM » Republican Sen. Ron Johnson tells WSJ he won't vote for GOP tax bill
    Published Wed, Nov 15 2017 3:45 PM by CNBC
    Johnson is the first GOP senator to explicitly say he will not back the tax proposal.
  • 3:44 PM » Republicans Slap an Expiration Date on Middle-Class Tax Cuts
    Published Wed, Nov 15 2017 3:44 PM by The Atlantic
    President Trump and congressional Republicans have repeatedly insisted that the top priority of their tax reform is delivering relief to the middle class. But under a significant change to the Senate's plan announced late Tuesday night, that relief for most people will now only be temporary, and millions of middle-class families could actually see a tax increase in 2026 if Congress doesn't act again. As I recently reported , the competing Republican tax bills were both over-budget, forcing party leaders to scale them back if they hoped to pass legislation under Senate rules without Democratic votes. They essentially had two choices: They could slap an expiration date on the proposal's large corporate tax cut-from 35 percent down to 20 percent-or they could sunset the provisions benefitting individuals. For now, Republicans are siding with businesses, keeping the lower corporate rate permanent while setting nearly all of the individual tax cuts to expire in eight years, at the end of 2025. The decision is a nod to conservative economists who argue that permanence in business tax rates is key to producing desired growth in the GDP, because companies are more likely to plan expansion and investments years ahead of time. And it's also a bet that future Congresses-whether under Democratic or Republican majorities-will extend the cuts for individuals to stave off a politically unpopular tax increase. Yet the choice dents the GOP's message that the bill is targeted chiefly at middle-class families and not big business. "Bottom line, my colleagues on the other side have shown their hand," said Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon, the top Democrat on the Finance Committee, which wrote the bill and held a combative markup of the revised proposal on Wednesday less than 12 hours after the changes were unveiled. Republicans on the panel hope to approve the bill this week so the full Senate can vote on it after Thanksgiving. The House is set to pass its version...
  • 2:20 PM » Richard Cordray Stepping Down As Head Of U.S. Consumer Protection Agency
    Published Wed, Nov 15 2017 2:20 PM by www.npr.org
    Richard Cordray, the embattled director of Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, announced Wednesday that he will leave the agency by the end of November. "I am confident that you will continue to move forward, nurture this institution we have built together, and maintain its essential value to the American public," Cordray wrote in an email to the agency's staff.
  • 2:15 PM » Tax Overhaul Plans Make New York Home Buyers Think Twice
    Published Wed, Nov 15 2017 2:15 PM by www.realtor.com
    Brokers say buyers are worried as House and Senate proposals would increase the cost of owning many residential properties. The post Tax Overhaul Plans Make New York Home Buyers Think Twice appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 1:03 PM » Brainard, Regional Food Systems and Community Development
    Published Wed, Nov 15 2017 1:03 PM by Federal Reserve
    Speech At a Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Regional Food Systems Meeting, Boston, Massachusetts
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Federal Reserve
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