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  • Fri, Jan 22 2021
  • 4:29 PM » Smart Living: The Latest Smart Home Tech to Add to Your Home
    Published Fri, Jan 22 2021 4:29 PM by www.redfin.com
    Living in a smart house used to be an idea that was only in sci-fi movies. Find out how to start upgrading your home with the latest smart home tech- from security, kitchen tasks, to building a house. The post Smart Living: The Latest Smart Home Tech to Add to Your Home appeared first on Redfin | Real Estate Tips for Home Buying, Selling & More .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 3:02 PM » Still no stimulus check? Biden executive order aims to speed up payments for 8 million people
    Published Fri, Jan 22 2021 3:02 PM by CNBC
    Millions have been shut out of receiving $1,200 or $600 checks because their information is not on file. Biden wants the Treasury Department to fix that.
  • 12:31 PM » States will soon start giving out $25 billion in rental assistance. How to apply
    Published Fri, Jan 22 2021 12:31 PM by CNBC
    States will soon start giving out billions in rental assistance. Here's what you need to know if you're struggling.
  • 9:17 AM » Black Knight: National Mortgage Delinquency Rate Decreased in December
    Published Fri, Jan 22 2021 9:17 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: Loans in forbearance are counted as delinquent in this survey, but those loans are not reported as delinquent to the credit bureaus. From Black Knight: Black Knight's First Look: 2020 Ends With 1.7 Million More Seriously Delinquent Homeowners Than at Start of Year; Foreclosures at Record Low • The year ended with 1.54 million more delinquent and 1.7 million more seriously delinquent mortgages than at the start of 2020, a looming reminder of the challenges facing the market in 2021 • Despite the year-over-year increase, the national delinquency rate saw modest improvement in December , falling by 3.9% from November to 6.08%, the lowest level since April 2020 • Serious delinquencies (loans 90 or more days past due) also improved, falling to 2.15 million from 2.19 million the month prior • Even after months of improvement, 90-day default activity rose by more than 250% (+2.6 million) overall in 2020 • Foreclosure starts fell by 67% from the year prior and the year's 40,000 foreclosure sales (completions) represented an annual decline of more than 70% • Starts and sales have hit record lows as moratoriums and forbearance plans protect distressed homeowners from facing foreclosure in the wake of the pandemic • Prepayment activity rose by 12% percent in December, ending the year 112% higher than the same month in 2019 and highlighting a still-strong refinance market entering 2021 emphasis added According to Black Knight's First Look report, the percent of loans delinquent decreased 3.9% in December compared to November, and increased 79% year-over-year. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased 1.3% in December and were down 28% over the last year. Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 6.08% in December, down from 6.33% in November. The percent of loans in the foreclosure process increased slightly in December to 0.33%, from 0.33% in November. The number of delinquent...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:30 AM » The housing market caps off a historic year: Morning Brief
    Published Fri, Jan 22 2021 8:30 AM by news.google.com
    The housing market caps off a historic year: Morning Brief    Yahoo Finance
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: news.google.com
  • 8:01 AM » 10-year Treasury yield flat amid stimulus and coronavirus concerns
    Published Fri, Jan 22 2021 8:01 AM by CNBC
    10-year Treasury yields made little movement on Friday, as President Joe Biden's proposed $1.9 trillion stimulus package faces early opposition in Congress.
  • Thu, Jan 21 2021
  • 2:17 PM » These are the five hottest – and three coldest – markets for home prices in 2021
    Published Thu, Jan 21 2021 2:17 PM by CNBC
    The Covid-19 pandemic has changed not only how we live but where we live, and that has upended some of the usual trends in housing markets.
  • 1:28 PM » Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 31.8% Year-over-year
    Published Thu, Jan 21 2021 1:28 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From CoStar: US Hotel Occupancy Exceeds 40% During Week of Jan. 16 U.S. weekly hotel occupancy climbed back to the 40% mark, according to STR's latest data through 16 January. 10-16 January 2021 (percentage change from comparable week in 2020): • Occupancy: 40.1% (-31.8%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$89.39 (-31.9%) • evenue per available room (RevPAR): US$35.85 (-53.6%) emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average . Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2021, black is 2020, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2009 (the worst year since the Great Depression for hotels prior to 2020). Even when occupancy increases to 2009 levels, hotels will still be hurting. Seasonally we'd expect that business travel would start to pick up in the new year, but there will probably not be much pickup early in 2021. Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:49 AM » Confidence in Remodeling is Strong Despite COVID-19
    Published Thu, Jan 21 2021 10:49 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB) Remodeling Market Index (RMI) posted a reading of 79 in the fourth quarter of 2020. The reading indicates remodelers' confidence in their markets, for projects of all sizes, despite the ongoing negative impacts of the coronavirus pandemic (Table 1). The RMI is based on a survey asking remodelers to rate five subcomponents of... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:54 AM » Housing Starts increased to 1.669 Million Annual Rate in December
    Published Thu, Jan 21 2021 8:54 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,669,000 . This is 5.8 percent above the revised November estimate of 1,578,000 and is 5.2 percent above the December 2019 rate of 1,587,000. Single-family housing starts in December were at a rate of 1,338,000; this is 12.0 percent above the revised November figure of 1,195,000. The December rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 312,000. An estimated 1,380,300 housing units were started in 2020. This is 7.0 percent above the 2019 figure of 1,290,000. Building Permits: Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in December were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,709,000. This is 4.5 percent above the revised November rate of 1,635,000 and is 17.3 percent above the December 2019 rate of 1,457,000. Single-family authorizations in December were at a rate of 1,226,000; this is 7.8 percent above the revised November figure of 1,137,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 437,000 in December. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years. Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) decreased in December compared to November.   Multi-family starts were down 39% year-over-year in December. Single-family starts (blue) increased in December, and were up 28% year-over-year.   This is the highest level for single family starts since 2006. The second graph shows total and single unit starts since 1968. The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then eventual recovery (but still historically low). Total housing starts in December were above expectations, and starts in October and November were revised up.   A very strong report. I'll have more later
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:39 AM » Weekly jobless claims total 900,000, vs 925,000 estimate
    Published Thu, Jan 21 2021 8:39 AM by CNBC
    Jobless claims were expected to total 925,000 for the week ended Jan. 16, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
  • 8:39 AM » Watch Christine Lagarde speaking after the ECB's latest policy move
    Published Thu, Jan 21 2021 8:39 AM by CNBC
    European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is giving a press conference after the bank's latest monetary policy decision.
  • 8:05 AM » Treasury yields fall amid market highs following Biden's inauguration
    Published Thu, Jan 21 2021 8:05 AM by CNBC
    U.S. Treasury yields dipped on Thursday morning, after record market highs, following the inauguration of Joe Biden as U.S. president.
  • 8:04 AM » European Central Bank keeps interest rates unchanged as new Covid lockdowns extend economic pain
    Published Thu, Jan 21 2021 8:04 AM by CNBC
    The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged Thursday, as euro nations continue to struggle with surging Covid-19 infections and subsequent lockdowns.
  • Wed, Jan 20 2021
  • 4:09 PM » The Fed under Biden: New mandates, a close White House tie and big challenges ahead
    Published Wed, Jan 20 2021 4:09 PM by CNBC
    All presidents watch the Fed closely, and Biden won't be an exception as he looks to get through the current crisis.
  • 4:09 PM » President Biden Will Extend Student Loan Payment Freeze Through September 30
    Published Wed, Jan 20 2021 4:09 PM by www.npr.org
    President Joe Biden plans to ask the Education Department to extend pandemic relief for about 41 million federal student loan borrowers through September 30th.
  • 4:08 PM » Jobless claims preview: Another 935,000 Americans likely filed new unemployment claims last week - Yahoo Finance
    Published Wed, Jan 20 2021 4:08 PM by news.google.com
    Jobless claims preview: Another 935,000 Americans likely filed new unemployment claims last week    Yahoo Finance
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: news.google.com
  • 1:30 PM » Biden expected to extend the national ban on evictions through March 2021
    Published Wed, Jan 20 2021 1:30 PM by CNBC
    President Joe Biden on Wednesday plans to extend the federal ban on housing evictions through March 2021 in one of his first acts following inauguration.
  • 1:29 PM » AIA: "Architecture Billings continue to lose ground" in December
    Published Wed, Jan 20 2021 1:29 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture Billings continue to lose ground Demand for design services from U.S. architecture firms took a pointed dip last month, according to a new report from the American Institute of Architects (AIA). The pace of decline during December accelerated from November, posting an Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 42.6 from 46.3 (any score below 50 indicates a decline in firm billings). Meanwhile, the pace of growth of inquiries into new projects remained flat from November to December with a score of 52.4, though the value of new design contracts stayed in negative territory with a score of 48.5. "Since the national economic recovery appears to have stalled, architecture firms are entering 2021 facing a continued sluggish design market," said AIA Chief Economist Kermit Baker, PhD, Hon. AIA. "However, the recently passed federal stimulus funding should help shore up the economy in the short-term, and hopefully by later this year there should be relief as COVID vaccinations become more widespread. Recent project inquiries from prospective and former clients have been positive, suggesting that new work may begin picking up as we move into the spring and summer months." ... • Regional averages: South (46.8); Midwest (43.6); West (43.4); Northeast (38.8) • Sector index breakdown: mixed practice (48.0); commercial/industrial (47.2); multi-family residential (46.1); institutional (38.5) emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 42.6 in December, down from 46.3 in November. Anything below 50 indicates contraction in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. This index has been below 50 for...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:42 AM » NAHB: Builder Confidence Decreased to 83 in January
    Published Wed, Jan 20 2021 10:42 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 83, down from 86 in December. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Down on Rising Material Prices, Upsurge in COVID-19 Cases Rising material costs led by a huge upsurge in lumber prices, along with a resurgence of the coronavirus across much of the nation, pushed builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes down three points to 83 in January, according to the latest NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. Despite the drop, builder sentiment remains at a strong level. "Despite robust housing demand and low mortgage rates, buyers are facing a dearth of new homes on the market, which is exacerbating affordability problems," said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. "Builders are grappling with supply-side constraints related to lumber and other material costs, a lack of affordable lots and labor shortages that delay delivery times and put upward pressure on home prices. They are also concerned about a changing regulatory environment." "While housing continues to help lead the economy forward, limited inventory is constraining more robust growth," said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. "A shortage of buildable lots is making it difficult to meet strong demand and rising material prices are far outpacing increases in home prices, which in turn is harming housing affordability." ... All three major HMI indices fell in January. The HMI index gauging current sales conditions dropped two points to 90, the component measuring sales expectations in the next six months fell two points to 83 and the gauge charting traffic of prospective buyers decreased five points to 68. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell six points to 76, the Midwest was up two points to 83, the South fell...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:50 AM » Janet Yellen, Treasury Secretary nominee, outlines priorities under Biden administration
    Published Wed, Jan 20 2021 8:50 AM by news.google.com
    Janet Yellen, Treasury Secretary nominee, outlines priorities under Biden administration    Yahoo! Voices Key takeaways from the first confirmation hearings for Biden nominees    CNN Yellen says more stimulus will provide 'biggest bang for the buck' - Business Insider    Business Insider Asia markets mostly up on hope for Biden recovery agenda    Yahoo Finance UK Dollar slips as U.S. stimulus hopes lift mood    CNBC View Full Coverage on Google News
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: news.google.com
  • 8:11 AM » FHFA extends foreclosure and REO eviction moratoriums until February 28
    Published Wed, Jan 20 2021 8:11 AM by twitter.com
    FHFA extends foreclosure and REO eviction moratoriums until February 28. https://go.usa.gov/xAdSJ (Feed generated with FetchRSS )
  • Tue, Jan 19 2021
  • 3:51 PM » Five key takeaways from Janet Yellen's Treasury confirmation hearing
    Published Tue, Jan 19 2021 3:51 PM by CNBC
    An audience of mostly friendly legislators questioned Yellen across a variety of topics.
  • 3:50 PM » Update Then and Now: With Column Excluding Pandemic
    Published Tue, Jan 19 2021 3:50 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    A few indicators comparing four years ago and today (and a column after three years - excluding the pandemic) ...   Jan-17 Jan-20 Dec-20 Vehicle Sales 1 16.7 16.9 16.4 Employment change 2 2,591 2,195 -704 Unemployment Rate 3 4.7% 3.5% 6.7% Participation Rate 4 62.8% 63.4% 61.5% Housing Starts 5 1,056 1,262 1,278 New Home Sales 6 486 644 679 Mortgage Delinquency Rate 7 6.1% 4.6% 8.3% GDP Growth 8 2.3% 2.5% 1.0% Budget Deficit 9 3.2% 4.6% 16.0% S&P 500 10 2,269 3,317 3,800 1 millions, SAAR (average previous 4 years, or 3 years for Jan 2020) 2 Thousands (Average previous 4 years, or 3 years for Jan 2020) 3 Most Recent Month 4 Most Recent Month 5 Thousands, SAAR (average previous 4 years, or 3 years for Jan 2020) 6 Thousands, SAAR (average previous 4 years, or 3 years for Jan 2020) 7 Annual GDP growth (over previous 4 years, or 3 years for Jan 2020).  Q4 2020 estimated at 5.0% annual rate. 8 Source: MBA, Quarterly including in-foreclosure (most recent quarter) 9 Source: CBP: Annual, fiscal 2016, 2019, and 2020 10 Jan 20, 2017, Jan 21, 2020 and Jan 19, 2021
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:14 PM » Treasury nominee Yellen says U.S. can afford higher corporate tax rate if it coordinates with other countries - CNBC
    Published Tue, Jan 19 2021 2:14 PM by news.google.com
    Treasury nominee Yellen says U.S. can afford higher corporate tax rate if it coordinates with other countries    CNBC WATCH: Senate hearing to consider Janet Yellen as Biden's Secretary of Treasury    Washington Post Treasury Nominee Janet Yellen: Government Must 'Act Big' To Combat Pandemic | NBC News NOW    NBC News Why the US dollar's mini-revival won't take the wind out of yuan rally    South China Morning Post Dow Rises on Stimulus Bets as Yellen Testifies Before Congress    TheStreet View Full Coverage on Google News
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: news.google.com
  • 2:13 PM » Yellen Urges Congress To 'Act Big' To Prop Up Pandemic-Scarred Economy
    Published Tue, Jan 19 2021 2:13 PM by www.npr.org
    At her confirmation hearing Tuesday, Treasury Secretary designate Janet Yellen warned that without more federal help, the recession would last longer and be more painful than necessary.
  • 12:15 PM » Then and Now
    Published Tue, Jan 19 2021 12:15 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    A few indicators comparing four years ago and today ...   Jan-17 Dec-20 Vehicle Sales 1 16.7 16.4 Employment change 2 10,364 -2,818 Unemployment Rate 3 4.7% 6.7% Participation Rate 4 62.8% 61.5% Housing Starts 5 1,056 1,278 New Home Sales 6 486 679 Mortgage Delinquency Rate 7 6.1% 8.3% Budget Deficit 8 3.2% 16.0% S&P 500 9 2,269 3,790 1 millions, SAAR (average previous 4 years) 2 Thousands (over previous 4 years) 3 Most Recent Month 4 Most Recent Month 5 Thousands, SAAR (average previous 4 years) 6 Thousands, SAAR (average previous 4 years) 7 Source: MBA, Quarterly including in-foreclosure (most recent quarter) 8 Annual, fiscal 2016 vs. 2020 9 Jan 20, 2017 vs Jan 19, 2021
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:47 AM » Continued Gains for November Single-Family Permits
    Published Tue, Jan 19 2021 11:47 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    Over the first eleven months of 2020, total single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 888,217. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is an 12.2% increase over the November 2019 level of 791,452. Year-to-date ending in November, single-family permits across the four regions ranged from an increase of 14.4% in the South to an increase of 8.0% in the Northeast.... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 11:23 AM » The average FICO score is 711. Here's what the number means and how you can get a higher rating
    Published Tue, Jan 19 2021 11:23 AM by CNBC
    Many U.S. lenders use one type of credit score called the "FICO score." The three-digit number helps determine how much you pay for credit.
  • 9:59 AM » Watch Janet Yellen speak live during her confirmation hearing as Treasury Secretary
    Published Tue, Jan 19 2021 9:59 AM by CNBC
    Janet Yellen faces the Senate Finance Committee on Tuesday for her confirmation hearing to the post of Treasury Secretary.
  • 9:06 AM » A Positive Note from Merrill: "A light at the end of the COVID cave"
    Published Tue, Jan 19 2021 9:06 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here is a positive outlook on the 2021 economy.   A few brief excerpts from a research note by Merrill Lynch Global Economist Ethan Harris: A light at the end of the COVID cave Normally we write about COVID news in the back, but now it deserves front-page coverage; With COVID cases falling and vaccines accelerating, this is probably the beginning of the end of the COVID crisis. Here we argue: • Renewed restrictions and the end to the holiday season seem to be bending the cases curve. • The vaccine rollout should continue to accelerate as new resources and effort is put into the project. • There is one major caveat: new more contagious strains have arrived in the US. ... What does this mean for the economy? We continue to see upside risks to our above consensus forecast. We think the vulnerable population will be inoculated by March/April, cutting hospitalizations dramatically, and allowing a partial reopening. Michelle Meyer and team have already boosted their GDP forecast for 2021 from 4.6% to 5.0% based on a somewhat earlier and bigger stimulus package. Moreover, like most forecasters they have not incorporated the impact of a second package.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:08 AM » Treasury yields rise ahead of Yellen's Senate speech
    Published Tue, Jan 19 2021 8:08 AM by CNBC
    U.S. Treasury yields climbed on Tuesday morning, as traders watched for comments from Treasury Secretary nominee Janet Yellen.
  • Fri, Jan 15 2021
  • 3:13 PM » Operation Costs per Dollar Value Lower for New Homes
    Published Fri, Jan 15 2021 3:13 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    New NAHB research based on the latest 2019 American Housing Survey (AHS) shows that, on average, homeowners spend around $9,240 per year to operate and maintain a single-family detached home. This includes property taxes, insurance, maintenance and utilities, with property taxes being the costliest component. Annual operating costs increase consistently with household income, home size and value. When measured as... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 2:28 PM » Led by Lumber, Building Materials Prices Climb 5.4% in 2020
    Published Fri, Jan 15 2021 2:28 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    Prices paid for goods used in residential construction ex-energy rose 0.7% in December (not seasonally adjusted) and ended the year 5.4% higher than they stood in December 2019, according to the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Building materials (i.e., inputs to residential construction less food and energy) prices declined just twice over the... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 2:04 PM » Fed's Rosengren voices support for Biden stimulus proposal
    Published Fri, Jan 15 2021 2:04 PM by CNBC
    Rosengren said he was comfortable with the action despite a nearly $2 trillion price tag that will take the government deeper into the red.
  • 1:13 PM » IRS delays start of tax filing season to Feb. 12
    Published Fri, Jan 15 2021 1:13 PM by news.google.com
    IRS delays start of tax filing season to Feb. 12    CNBC
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: news.google.com
  • 12:24 PM » CAR on California December Housing: Sales up 28% YoY, Active Listings down 47% YoY
    Published Fri, Jan 15 2021 12:24 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The CAR reported: California housing market ends year on high note as sales continue strong in December and median price reaches another record high, C.A.R. reports Despite a global pandemic that lingered most of the year, two lockdowns and a struggling economy, California's housing market closed out 2020 on a high note, recording solid sales and a fifth record-high median price in December, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today. Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 509,750 units in December, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2020 if sales maintained the December pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales. December home sales ticked up 0.2 percent from 508,820 in November and were up 28 percent from a year ago , when 398,370 homes were sold on an annualized basis. The year-over-year, double-digit sales gain was the fifth consecutive and the largest yearly gain since May 2009. For the year as a whole, annual home sales rose to a preliminary 411,870 closed escrow sales in California, up 3.5 percent from 2019's pace of 397,960 . ... "Home prices, which usually peak during the summer, were unseasonably strong in December," said C.A.R. Vice President and Chief Economist Jordan Levine. "The imbalance between supply and demand continues to fuel home price gains as would-be home sellers remain reluctant to list their homes during the pandemic, contributing to a more-than-40-percent year-over-year decline in active listings for the seventh straight month." ... Active listings fell 47.1 percent from last year and continued to drop more than 40 percent on a year-over-year basis for the seventh...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:51 AM » Industrial Production Increased 1.6 Percent in December; 3.3% Below Pre-Crisis Level
    Published Fri, Jan 15 2021 9:51 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Fed: Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization Industrial production advanced 1.6 percent in December , with gains of 0.9 percent for manufacturing, 1.6 percent for mining, and 6.2 percent for utilities. The increase for utilities resulted from a rebound in demand for heating after unseasonably warm weather in November. For the fourth quarter as a whole, total industrial production rose at an annual rate of 8.4 percent. At 105.7 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production in December was 3.6 percent lower than it was a year earlier and 3.3 percent below its pre-pandemic February reading. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector rose 1.1 percentage points in December to 74.5 percent, a rate that is 5.3 percentage points below its long-run (1972-2019) average. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows Capacity Utilization. This series is up from the record low set in April, but still below the level in February 2020. Capacity utilization at 74.5% is 5.3% below the average from 1972 to 2019. Note: y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the change. The second graph shows industrial production since 1967. Industrial production increased in December to  105.7. This is 3.3% below the February 2020 level. The change in industrial production was above consensus expectations, and industrial production in October and November were revised up slightly.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:51 AM » Retail Sales decreased 0.7% in December
    Published Fri, Jan 15 2021 8:51 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    On a monthly basis, retail sales decreased 0.7 percent from November to December (seasonally adjusted), and sales were up 2.9 percent from December 2019. From the Census Bureau report : Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for December 2020, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $540.9 billion, a decrease of 0.7 percent from the previous month , but 2.9 percent above December 2019. Total sales for the 12 months of 2020 were up 0.6 percent from 2019 . ... The October 2020 to November 2020 percent change was revised from down 1.1 percent to down 1.4 percent. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows retail sales since 1992. This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline). Retail sales ex-gasoline were down 1.2% in December. The second graph shows the year-over-year change in retail sales and food service (ex-gasoline) since 1993. Retail and Food service sales, ex-gasoline, increased by 4.2% on a YoY basis. The decrease in December was slightly above expectations, however sales in October and November were revised down.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:06 AM » Treasury yields pull back following Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus announcement
    Published Fri, Jan 15 2021 8:06 AM by CNBC
    U.S. Treasury yields gave back some gains made in the previous session, when President-elect Joe Biden announced the details of his economic stimulus plan.
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