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Rates Back Near Multi-Year Lows
Published: 2/20/2020
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  • Fri, Feb 21 2020
  • 3:47 PM » The S&P 500 just passed its highest valuation level in almost 18 years
    Published Fri, Feb 21 2020 3:47 PM by CNBC
    As of Wednesday, the S&P 500 traded at 19 times 12-month forward earnings, the highest the P/E level has been since May 23, 2002.
  • 3:45 PM » In next downturn, Fed may opt for quick, strong action
    Published Fri, Feb 21 2020 3:45 PM by Reuters
    In the next economic downturn, the Federal Reserve and other central banks may need to roll out their big guns sooner and add new bazookas to their recession-fighting arsenals, or risk getting mired in growth-sapping deflation or worse.
  • 1:35 PM » Fed's Mester calls for changes in how rate decisions are communicated
    Published Fri, Feb 21 2020 1:35 PM by CNBC
    The Cleveland president said the central bank should be providing markets more information about what is influencing monetary policy.
  • 12:20 PM » Fed policymakers call for quick, strong action in next downturn
    Published Fri, Feb 21 2020 12:20 PM by Reuters
    The U.S. central bank will need to act aggressively to counter future downturns, deploying old tools more quickly and adopting new ones, Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard said on Friday.
  • 11:47 AM » Q1 GDP Forecasts: 0.7% to 2.6%
    Published Fri, Feb 21 2020 11:47 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From Merrill Lynch: We are tracking 0.7% qoq saar for 1Q GDP and 2.0% for 4Q. [Feb 21 estimate] emphasis added From Goldman Sachs: we raised our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by one tenth to +1.5% . [Feb 19 estimate] From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.0% for 2020:Q1 . News from this week's data increased the nowcast for 2020:Q1 by 0.6 percentage point. Positive surprises from regional survey and housing data drove most of the increase. [Feb 21 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 2.6 percent on February 19, up from 2.4 percent on February 14. [Feb 19 estimate] CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be between 0.7% and 2.6% annualized in Q1.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:43 AM » Larry Kudlow says falling bond yields don't reflect the US economy's 'fundamentals'
    Published Fri, Feb 21 2020 10:43 AM by CNBC
    Larry Kudlow says falling bond yields don't reflect the US economy's 'fundamentals'<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/21/larry-kudlow-says-falling-bond-yields-dont-reflect-the-us-economys-fundamentals.html
  • 10:08 AM » Fed's Bostic says 'we won't have to do anything' on rates, despite market expectations
    Published Fri, Feb 21 2020 10:08 AM by CNBC
    Despite market expectations for up to two cuts this year, Bostic said that unless there's a significant shift in economic performance, the Fed should stay put.
  • 8:36 AM » The Federal Reserve thinks low rates have had only a 'modest' impact on stock market prices
    Published Fri, Feb 21 2020 8:36 AM by CNBC
    That's contrary to the conventional Street wisdom which ties the low rates and money-printing to a market bull run that is less than a month away from its 11th anniversary
  • 8:03 AM » U.S. dollar, bonds get safe-haven rush as virus spreads
    Published Fri, Feb 21 2020 8:03 AM by Reuters
    Asian shares were cast adrift on Friday as fears over the creeping spread of the coronavirus sent funds fleeing to the sheltered shores of U.S. assets, lofting the dollar to three-year highs.
  • 8:01 AM » Expectations for a rate cut will fade as coronavirus fear eases, Fed's James Bullard says
    Published Fri, Feb 21 2020 8:01 AM by CNBC
    Central bank officials have indicated that they are content to keep policy on hold as they watch economic developments play out.
  • Thu, Feb 20 2020
  • 3:00 PM » Rates on Construction Loans Continue to Drift Downward
    Published Thu, Feb 20 2020 3:00 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    In the fourth-quarter of 2019, builders and developers reported declining interest rates on all types of loans covered in NAHB's quarterly survey on acquisition, development and construction (AD&C) financing (Exhibit 8). The average interest rate declined from 6.39 to 6.13 percent on loans for land acquisition, from 6.31 to 5.94 percent on loans for land development, from 5.99 to 5.63... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 1:27 PM » Phoenix Real Estate in January: Sales up 18.1% YoY, Active Inventory Down 38.9% YoY
    Published Thu, Feb 20 2020 1:27 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This is a key housing market to follow since Phoenix saw a large bubble / bust followed by strong investor buying. The Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) reports ("Stats Report"): 1) Overall sales were at 6,328 in January, down from 7,585 in December, but up from 5,357 in January 2019. Sales were down 16.6% from December 2019 (last month), but up 18.1% from January 2019 . 2) Active inventory was at 11,602, down from 18,990 in January 2019. That is down 38.9% year-over-year . 3) Months of supply increased to 2.54 in January from 2.05 months in December. This remains low. This is another market with increasing sales and falling inventory.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:27 PM » Wall Street tumbles as coronavirus fears mount
    Published Thu, Feb 20 2020 1:27 PM by Reuters
    U.S. stock indexes fell about 1% on Thursday, dragged down by technology heavyweights, as investors fretted over a rise in the cases of coronavirus and its economic impact.
  • 11:49 AM » Americans are fleeing the most expensive US cities—and moving to these 10 more affordable places
    Published Thu, Feb 20 2020 11:49 AM by CNBC
    Many Americans are looking to leave expensive coastal cities, according to Redfin.com's housing migration report for Q4 of 2019, which analyzed data from more than 1 million Redfin users. Here are 10 metro areas they're flocking to instead.
  • 9:49 AM » Philly Fed Manufacturing Suggests Activity Increased in February
    Published Thu, Feb 20 2020 9:49 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Philly Fed: Current Manufacturing Indicators Suggest a Pickup in Growth in February Manufacturing firms reported an improvement in regional manufacturing activity, according to results from the February Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey. The survey's current indicators for general activity, new orders, and shipments increased this month, suggesting more widespread growth. The firms reported expansion in employment, although at a moderated pace from January. The survey's broad future indexes also showed improvement this month, indicating that growth is expected to continue over the next six months. The diffusion index for current general activity rose nearly 20 points this month to 36.7, its highest reading since February 2017 The firms reported overall increases in manufacturing employment this month, but the current employment index decreased 10 points to 9.8. Just 18 percent of the firms reported higher employment, compared with 28 percent last month. The average workweek index, however, increased 5 points. emphasis added This was well above the consensus forecast. Here is a graph comparing the regional Fed surveys and the ISM manufacturing index: Click on graph for larger image. The New York and Philly Fed surveys are averaged together (yellow, through February), and five Fed surveys are averaged (blue, through January) including New York, Philly, Richmond, Dallas and Kansas City. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) PMI (red) is through January (right axis). These early reports suggest the ISM manufacturing index will be solidly in positive territory in February.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:35 AM » Fed Vice Chair Clarida throws cold water on traders pricing in a rate cut
    Published Thu, Feb 20 2020 9:35 AM by CNBC
    Fed Vice Chair Clarida throws cold water on traders pricing in a rate cut<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/20/clarida-on-squawk-.html
  • 8:34 AM » Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims Increase to 210,000
    Published Thu, Feb 20 2020 8:34 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The DOL reported : In the week ending February 15, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 210,000 , an increase of 4,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 205,000 to 206,000. The 4-week moving average was 209,000, a decrease of 3,250 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 212,000 to 212,250. emphasis added The previous week was revised up. The following graph shows the 4-week moving average of weekly claims since 1971. Click on graph for larger image. The dashed line on the graph is the current 4-week average. The four-week average of weekly unemployment claims decreased to 209,000. This was close to the consensus forecast.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:02 AM » Co-Buying: How Cash-Strapped Millennials Are Becoming Homeowners Without Family Help
    Published Thu, Feb 20 2020 8:02 AM by www.realtor.com
    As home prices, living costs, and student debt loads are rising, some buyers are turning to co-buying to get around the housing affordability crisis. The post Co-Buying: How Cash-Strapped Millennials Are Becoming Homeowners Without Family Help appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • Wed, Feb 19 2020
  • 3:33 PM » Fed calls the coronavirus a 'new risk to global growth outlook'
    Published Wed, Feb 19 2020 3:33 PM by CNBC
    Though the coronavirus had just taken hold when the Fed met in January, officials already expressed concern about its economic impacts.
  • 3:27 PM » Goldman says market underestimating coronavirus risk: 'Correction is looking much more probable'
    Published Wed, Feb 19 2020 3:27 PM by CNBC
    Goldman Sachs sounded the alarm about a possible correction in the stock market, noting investors are underestimating the coronavirus risk.
  • 1:55 PM » AIA: "Architecture billings continue growth into 2020"
    Published Wed, Feb 19 2020 1:55 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture billings continue growth into 2020 Starting the year on a strong note, architecture firm billings strengthened slightly in January, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA). AIA's Architecture Billings Index (ABI) score of 52.2 for January compared to 52.1 in December reflects an increase in design services provided by U.S. architecture firms (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). Indicators of work in the pipeline, including new project inquiries and new design contracts remained positive, posting scores of 57.9 and 56.0 respectively. "Despite the continued presence of volatility in the economy, design activity has begun to accelerate in recent months," said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. "Even with the ongoing challenges facing the nonresidential construction sector, this upturn points to at least modest growth over the coming year." ... • Regional averages: South (56.7); West (52.1); Midwest (51.3); Northeast (45.3) • Sector index breakdown: mixed practice (51.6); commercial/industrial (51.5); multi-family residential (51.2); institutional (51.1) emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 52.2 in January, up from 52.1 in December. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. According to the AIA, there is an "approximate nine to twelve month lag time between architecture billings and construction spending" on non-residential construction.  This index has been positive for 8 of the previous 12 months, suggesting some increase in CRE investment...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:20 PM » Ready-Mix Concrete, Gypsum Products Lead Building Materials Prices Higher in January
    Published Wed, Feb 19 2020 12:20 PM by eyeonhousing.org
    Prices paid for goods used in residential construction increased 0.5% in January (not seasonally adjusted) according to the latest Producer Price Index (PPI) released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Building materials prices have increased 2.0% over the last 12 months and by 3.3% since January 2018. The average monthly increase since the start of 2018 has been 0.14%, with the largest... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 9:22 AM » U.S. housing starts fall; building permits near 13-year high
    Published Wed, Feb 19 2020 9:22 AM by Reuters
    U.S. homebuilding fell less than expected in January while permits surged to a near 13-year high, pointing to sustained housing market strength amid lower mortgage rates.
  • 8:52 AM » US producer prices post biggest gain in more than a year
    Published Wed, Feb 19 2020 8:52 AM by CNBC
    U.S. producer prices increased by the most in more than a year in January, boosted by rises in the costs of services such as healthcare and hotel accommodation.
  • Tue, Feb 18 2020
  • 4:11 PM » LendingClub buys Radius Bank for $185 million in first fintech takeover of a regulated US bank
    Published Tue, Feb 18 2020 4:11 PM by CNBC
    The move marks the first time a U.S. fintech company has acquired a bank.
  • 12:50 PM » SEC Charges Real Estate Company and Executives With Defrauding Retail Investors, Obtains Emergency Relief
    Published Tue, Feb 18 2020 12:50 PM by SEC
    The Securities and Exchange Commission today announced an emergency enforcement action and a temporary restraining order and asset freeze against Florida-based private real estate firm EquiAlt LLC, its CEO Brian Davison, and its Managing Director Barry
  • 12:49 PM » China sees fall in coronavirus deaths, WHO urges caution, Apple takes hit
    Published Tue, Feb 18 2020 12:49 PM by Reuters
    China reported its fewest new coronavirus infections since January on Tuesday and its lowest daily death toll for a week, but the World Health Organization said data suggesting the epidemic had slowed should still be viewed with caution.
  • 11:52 AM » US oil industry expected to cut spending by 10-15% and restructure, Dallas Fed says
    Published Tue, Feb 18 2020 11:52 AM by CNBC
    The Dallas Fed, which has the Permian basin in its economic region, expects the oil and gas sector to cut spending by 10% to 15% in 2020.
  • 11:03 AM » Federal Reserve's Robert Kaplan sees no changes in interest rates this year
    Published Tue, Feb 18 2020 11:03 AM by CNBC
    The central banker, in an essay released Tuesday morning, backed the wait-and-see approach that his fellow voters on the Federal Open Market Committee have adopted
  • 9:45 AM » NY Fed: Manufacturing "Business activity picked up in New York State"
    Published Tue, Feb 18 2020 9:45 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NY Fed: Empire State Manufacturing Survey Business activity picked up in New York State, according to firms responding to the February 2020 Empire State Manufacturing Survey. The headline general business conditions index moved up eight points to 12.9 . The new orders index shot up 16 points to 22.1, and the shipments index climbed to 18.9. ... The index for number of employees edged down to 6.6 , indicating that employment grew to a small degree. The average workweek held near zero, a sign that the average workweek was little changed. Indexes assessing the six-month outlook suggested that optimism about future conditions was somewhat restrained. emphasis added This was higher than the consensus forecast.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:56 AM » Democratic presidential hopeful Bloomberg calls for tighter financial industry regulations
    Published Tue, Feb 18 2020 8:56 AM by Reuters
    U.S. Democratic presidential candidate Michael Bloomberg on Tuesday proposed a raft of new regulations aimed at Wall Street, including a financial transactions tax of 0.1% and strengthening consumer protections.
  • 8:02 AM » Hoping to Buy a Home in 2020? The Easiest and Toughest Places to Find One
    Published Tue, Feb 18 2020 8:02 AM by www.realtor.com
    Don't stress it. We've found the places where it's easiest to buy a home-and where buyers need to brace themselves for an ultracompetitive market. The post Hoping to Buy a Home in 2020? The Easiest and Toughest Places to Find One appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • Fri, Feb 14 2020
  • 3:44 PM » Wall Street slips as coronavirus dampens optimism
    Published Fri, Feb 14 2020 3:44 PM by Reuters
    Wall Street edged lower on Friday as uncertainties surrounding the coronavirus epidemic and downbeat economic data put a damper on investor sentiment.
  • 3:44 PM » White House considering tax incentive for more Americans to buy stocks, sources say
    Published Fri, Feb 14 2020 3:44 PM by CNBC
    As part of a forthcoming package of proposed tax cuts, the White House is considering ways to incentivize U.S. households to invest in the stock market.
  • 1:42 PM » Sacramento Housing in January: Sales Up 5.6% YoY, Active Inventory down 32.7% YoY
    Published Fri, Feb 14 2020 1:42 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From SacRealtor.org: January 2020 Statistics - Sacramento Housing Market - Single Family Homes January ended with 944 sales, down 24.1% from December. Compared to one year ago (894), the current figure is up 5.6% . ... The Active Listing Inventory increased 7.1% from December to January, from 1,315 units to 1,409 units. Compared with January 2019 (2,095), inventory is down 32.7%. The Months of Inventory increased from 1.1 to 1.5 Months. This figure represents the amount of time (in months) it would take for the current rate of sales to deplete the total active listing inventory. ... The Median DOM (days on market) decreased from 19 to 17 and the Average DOM increased from 32 to 33. "Days on market" represents the days between the initial listing of the home as "active" and the day it goes "pending." emphasis added 1) Overall sales increased to 944 in January, up from 894 in January 2019. Sales were down from December 2019 (previous month), and up 5.6% from January 2019. 2) Active inventory was at 1,409, down from 2,095 in January 2019. That is down 32.7% year-over-year.  This is the ninth consecutive month with a YoY decline in inventory, following 20 months of YoY increases in inventory.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:52 AM » Q1 GDP Forecasts: 0.7% to 2.4%
    Published Fri, Feb 14 2020 11:52 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From Merrill Lynch: The data cut our 4Q 2019 GDP tracking estimate by 0.1pp to 2.0% and our 1Q 2020 estimate by 0.3pp to 0.7% qoq saar . [Feb 14 estimate] emphasis added From the NY Fed Nowcasting Report The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 1.4% for 2020:Q1 . News from this week's data decreased the nowcast for 2020:Q1 by 0.3 percentage point. [Feb 14 estimate] And from the Altanta Fed: GDPNow The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the first quarter of 2020 is 2.4 percent on February 14 , down from 2.7 percent on February 7. [Feb 14 estimate] CR Note: These early estimates suggest real GDP growth will be between 0.7% and 2.4% annualized in Q1.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:31 AM » Sluggish Rebound in Single-Family Permits in December
    Published Fri, Feb 14 2020 11:31 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    Over the year 2019, the total number of single-family permits issued year-to-date (YTD) nationwide reached 854,158. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, this is a 0.2% increase over the December 2018 level of 852,856.   Year-to-date ending in December, single-family permits reported declines in three regions and an increase in the South. The Northeast reported the steepest decline by 6.8%. The... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 10:52 AM » How much you need to earn to afford to buy a home in 15 major US cities
    Published Fri, Feb 14 2020 10:52 AM by CNBC
    When you're in the market for a home, lenders expect borrowers to have a decent credit score - 90% of home buyers had a score of at least 650 in the first quarter of 2019 - and an income high enough that they are confident you'll be able to make your mortgage payments each month.
  • 10:25 AM » These home renovations provide the biggest returns
    Published Fri, Feb 14 2020 10:25 AM by CNBC
    Americans are moving much less frequently. Mobility is actually at a record low. That is fueling strong growth in the home remodeling market. But not all renovation investments yield equal payback.
  • 9:18 AM » Homebuyers Flock to Four Cities for Affordable Land and Growing Salaries
    Published Fri, Feb 14 2020 9:18 AM by www.redfin.com
    Spokane, Las Vegas, Charlotte and Orlando will be the hottest metros among affordability-seeking homebuyers in the coming decade As expensive coastal metros struggle to find solutions to rising housing costs, homebuyers have begun looking to smaller more affordable metros where land is cheap and incomes are growing. Already, Spokane, Las Vegas, Charlotte and Orlando are … Homebuyers Flock to Four Cities for Affordable Land and Growing Salaries Read More » The post Homebuyers Flock to Four Cities for Affordable Land and Growing Salaries appeared first on Redfin Blog .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
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