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  • Mon, Jun 27 2016
  • 2:03 PM » Brexit and U.S. Housing: Possible Impacts
    Published Mon, Jun 27 2016 2:03 PM by
    The most important economic news of last week concerned the United Kingdom referendum, which supported a departure of the U.K. from the European Union (Brexit). This political action has caused stock market declines and a fair amount of concern about the health of the global economy. How does housing and home building fit into this set of impacts? I think it... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 2:01 PM » Brexit and the lessons of history
    Published Mon, Jun 27 2016 2:01 PM by
    “The Europe we have today is the worst possible Europe, apart from all the other Europes that have been tried from time to time.” - Historian Timothy Garton Ash paraphrasing Winston Churchill With almost clockwork precision, Europe has torn itself apart in violent, usually barbaric paroxysms of self-destruction every 30-50 years for at least the past 1000 years.  The last such example of self-annihilation was the Second World War, from 1939-1945.  Historians debate whether it was the worst of all these episodes, but we do know that over 50 million people died and, as its name implies, it affected the world. As the Second World War was ending, the leaders of the dominant world powers at the time, as well as the leaders of some of the core states of Western Europe, sought to reverse the tide of history which, after innumerable examples lasting over hundreds of years, they finally realized represented an untenable “normal.”  They sought to create a “new normal.”  Within Europe, the three small countries who had the longest history of working closely together, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands – Benelux – were the core of the European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC).  Under the leadership of a few visionary Europeans, notably the Luxembourg-born, Christian Democratic French statesman Robert Schuman, the French political economist Jean Monnet, Germany’s first post WWII Chancellor Konrad Adenauer, the Italian Prime Minister who survived the first eight post-WWII Italian governments, Alcide de Gasperi, and arguably Belgium’s most influential statesman ever, Paul-Henri Spaak, the ECSC evolved in to the European Common Market (EEC) which then grew in to the 27-member European Union and the Euro common currency zone.  On a global scale, there was a similar attempt to create organizations that would prevent the horrors and...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 12:23 PM » European banks rocked again as investors digest Brexit vote
    Published Mon, Jun 27 2016 12:23 PM by CNBC
    Banks in Europe saw their stocks fall sharply for a second straight session as the United Kingdom's historic vote last week weighed.
  • 12:23 PM » Freddie Mac Extends Disaster Relief to Eligible Borrowers in West Virginia
    Published Mon, Jun 27 2016 12:23 PM by
    Freddie Mac Extends Disaster Relief to Eligible Borrowers in West Virginia
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 10:16 AM » Freddie Mac June 2016 Outlook
    Published Mon, Jun 27 2016 10:16 AM by
    Freddie Mac June 2016 Outlook
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 10:16 AM » Black Knight Home Price Index Report: April 2016 Transactions
    Published Mon, Jun 27 2016 10:16 AM by
    Black Knight Home Price Index Report: April 2016 Transactions<br/>
  • 10:16 AM » Trade gap widens unexpectedly
    Published Mon, Jun 27 2016 10:16 AM by CNBC
    The U.S. advance goods trade deficit totaled a wider-than-expected $60.59 billion in May.
  • 10:14 AM » Quicken Loans Entices Buyers With 1%-Down Mortgage
    Published Mon, Jun 27 2016 10:14 AM by
    The lender has been flying under the radar with its 1% down mortgage, which it began nearly six months ago.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 8:29 AM » The Missing Men
    Published Mon, Jun 27 2016 8:29 AM by The Atlantic
    Something is rotten in the U.S. economy. Poor men without a college degree are disappearing from the labor force. The share of prime-age men (ages 25-54) who are neither working nor looking for work has doubled since the 1970s. The U.S.'s labor participation rate for this group of men is lower than every country in the OECD except for Israel (an outlier, because of the high number of non-working Orthodox Jewish men) and Italy (an economic omnishambles). Today, one in six prime-age men in America are either unemployed or out of the workforce altogether-about 10 million men. So, this is the 10-million-man question: Where did all these guys go? According to a report from White House economists released last week, non-working prime-age men skew young, are less likely to be parents, are disproportionately black and less educated, and are concentrated in the South. In the last few years, several writers and economists have suggested that many of them are in school , on disability , or in prison . More optimistically, some said that men are more likely to help their spouses with raising children and cleaning the house. But upon investigation, none of these answers fully explains the disappearance of prime-age men. 1) Are they in school? This would be one of the most benign-or even hopeful-reasons for the drop in male participation. Alas, it doesn't seem to explain much. Since 1990, the number of men over the age of 25 enrolled in a post-secondary institution has increased slightly, from 2.5 million to about 3 million, most of which was an increase among people enrolled part-time. Overall, a jump of 500,000 accounts for just a fraction of the growth of non-working men. (If the male participation rate hadn't changed since 1990, there would be about 3 million more men in the labor force.) The men most likely to drop out of the labor force today are those who never started college. This is a remarkable shift. Fifty years ago, college graduates and high-school dropouts...
  • 8:24 AM » Black Knight: House Price Index up 1.0% in April, Up 5.4% year-over-year
    Published Mon, Jun 27 2016 8:24 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: I follow several house price indexes (Case-Shiller, CoreLogic, Black Knight, Zillow, FHFA, FNC and more). Note: Black Knight uses the current month closings only (not a three month average like Case-Shiller or a weighted average like CoreLogic), excludes short sales and REOs, and is not seasonally adjusted . From Black Knight: Black Knight Home Price Index Report: April Transactions -- U.S. Home Prices Up 1.0 Percent for the Month; Up 5.4 Percent Year-Over-Year • U.S. home prices were up 1.0 percent for the month, and have gained 5.4 percent from one year ago • At $260K, the U.S. HPI is up over 30 percent from the market's bottom and is now just 2.9 percent off its June 2006 peak • 14 of the nation's 40 largest metropolitan areas hit new peaks in April: ?Austin, TX ($299K) ?Boston, MA ($419K) ?Charlotte, NC ($207K) ?Dallas, TX ($230K) ?Denver, CO ($351K) ?Houston, TX ($225K) ?Kansas City, MO ($180K) ?Nashville, TN ($231K) ?Pittsburgh, PA ($190K) ?Portland, OR ($346K) ?San Antonio, TX ($200K) ?San Francisco, CA ($765K) ?San Jose, CA ($921K) ?Seattle, WA ($401K) The year-over-year increase in the index has been about the same for the last year.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:17 AM » Fed's Yellen pulls out of ECB gathering in Portugal
    Published Mon, Jun 27 2016 8:17 AM by Reuters
    SINTRA (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen is no longer due to speak at a global central bank summit starting on Monday, the second high-profile defection after the Bank of England's governor pulled out following Britain's vote to leave the European Union.
  • Fri, Jun 24 2016
  • 4:14 PM » Yellen's Fed to Play Long Game Dealing With Brexit Fallout
    Published Fri, Jun 24 2016 4:14 PM by Bloomberg
    Bloomberg Yellen's Fed to Play Long Game Dealing With Brexit Fallout Bloomberg Britain's vote to leave the European Union will almost certainly have repercussions for the Federal Reserve -- and those could play out over days or months. The severity of the fallout will become clear over three time horizons. On Friday, the Fed said ... and more »
  • 1:45 PM » Trader asks: How could I have misjudged UK mood?
    Published Fri, Jun 24 2016 1:45 PM by CNBC
    It's a crazy day to be a trader! NYSE floor trader Kenny Polcari asks, "How could I have so misjudged the mood and the market psyche?"
  • 1:43 PM » Post Brexit, odds are up for Fed interest-rate cut
    Published Fri, Jun 24 2016 1:43 PM by Market Watch
    Rate hike out, rate cut in. A minority of fed-funds futures traders are now pricing in that the U.S. central bank will actually cut interest rates in its next meeting.
  • 1:42 PM » Residential Building Construction Wages are on the Rise
    Published Fri, Jun 24 2016 1:42 PM by
    Rising job openings and employment in residential building construction industry pushed wages significantly higher after the Great Recession, with some states experiencing wage growth exceeding three times the national average from 2010 to 2015. The preliminary Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the average annual pay for residential building construction... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 12:02 PM » Brexit aftermath: Where do markets go from here?
    Published Fri, Jun 24 2016 12:02 PM by CNBC
    In the wake of a global selloff, Brexit could be changing the market narrative in a big way. Time to break it down issue by issue, sector by sector.
  • 10:41 AM » Consumer sentiment dims in June
    Published Fri, Jun 24 2016 10:41 AM by CNBC
    Consumers had a slightly dimmer view of the economy prior to Friday's stock market rout.
  • 10:40 AM » Bill Gross expects "mini revolt"; bond yields not likely to fall further
    Published Fri, Jun 24 2016 10:40 AM by Market Watch
    Legendary bond investor Bill Gross on Friday warned investors to brace for a "mini revolt" in the wake of the U.K.'s shocking decision to leave the European Union. Janus Global's Gross predicted a possible "political domino effect" where marginal countries in the bloc could follow the U.K's example. "A dysfunctional family before Brexit is likely to become even more dysfunctional," he said in an interview with CNBC. "The EU may not be at risk," but the grand vision that had underpinned the alliance is in jeopardy, he said. Gross, however, does not expect interest rates in the EU to drop significantly further from the current level. "The European Central Bank has gone about as far as it can go on negative rates," he said. The yield on the German 10-year bund sank 17 basis points to negative 0.092% earlier.
  • 10:40 AM » Wall St. plunges at the open after shock Brexit vote
    Published Fri, Jun 24 2016 10:40 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - U.S. stocks plunged at the open on Friday, with the Dow Jones average falling more than 500 points, after Britain's vote to quit the European Union delivered the biggest blow to the global financial system since the 2008 financial crisis.
  • 9:31 AM » Fed may be forced to reverse course
    Published Fri, Jun 24 2016 9:31 AM by CNBC
    THe Fed may have to take back its lone rate hike-and even bring more "helicopter money"-after the UK's shocking vote to leave the EU, says Ron Insana.
  • 9:29 AM » Weak U.S. core capital goods orders point to subdued business spending
    Published Fri, Jun 24 2016 9:29 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON, (Reuters) - New orders for U.S. manufactured capital goods unexpectedly fell in May as demand declined across the board, suggesting business spending will remain a drag on economic growth in the second quarter.
  • 9:28 AM » Where Incomes are Seeing a Boost
    Published Fri, Jun 24 2016 9:28 AM by
    Incomes in Washington grew faster than any other state during the first quarter.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 9:28 AM » Federal Reserve is carefully monitoring developments in global financial markets
    Published Fri, Jun 24 2016 9:28 AM by Federal Reserve
    Federal Reserve is carefully monitoring developments in global financial markets
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Federal Reserve
  • 9:27 AM » Dozens of homes burned in new California wildfire
    Published Fri, Jun 24 2016 9:27 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - Hundreds of firefighters were headed to the communities around Isabella Lake in central California on Friday to battle a fast-growing wildfire that has destroyed 80 homes and threatens over 1,000 more, officials said.
  • 9:27 AM » Brexit shock triggers race to salvage EU
    Published Fri, Jun 24 2016 9:27 AM by Reuters
    BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Britain's shock vote to leave the European Union - the first time a member state has chosen to pull out - sends the post-World War Two unification process that has underpinned peace and prosperity on the continent into reverse.
  • 7:48 AM » Britain just voted out of the EU ... What's that mean for America?
    Published Fri, Jun 24 2016 7:48 AM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - Britons have voted to leave the European Union, an outcome that has shocked global financial markets, sending stocks plunging and sovereign bonds and the U.S. dollar sharply higher.
  • Thu, Jun 23 2016
  • 2:44 PM » Table of Distressed Sales and All Cash Sales for Selected Cities in May
    Published Thu, Jun 23 2016 2:44 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Economist Tom Lawler sent me the table below of short sales, foreclosures and all cash sales for selected cities in May. On distressed: Total "distressed" share is down year-over-year in all of these markets. Short sales and foreclosures are down in all of these areas. The All Cash Share (last two columns) is mostly declining year-over-year. As investors continue to pull back, the share of all cash buyers continues to decline.   Short Sales Share Foreclosure Sales Share Total "Distressed" Share All Cash Share May- 2016 May- 2015 May- 2016 May- 2015 May- 2016 May- 2015 May- 2016 May- 2015 Las Vegas 4.5% 7.3% 6.1% 8.0% 10.6% 15.3% 28.2% 29.1% Reno*             20.8% 20.3% Omaha             13.2% 15.9% Pensacola             29.9% 31.3% Rhode Island         9.5% 11.5%     Richmond VA     7.5% 8.5%     15.1% 14.9% Memphis
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 12:43 PM » New warning lights for rising home prices
    Published Thu, Jun 23 2016 12:43 PM by CNBC
    After an epic housing crash, where values plummeted nationally by almost 35 percent, the nation is seeing new highs again.
  • 11:56 AM » Fulfilling HUD's Commitment to Creating Economic Opportunities
    Published Thu, Jun 23 2016 11:56 AM by
    A few years ago in New Orleans, Dwayne Shelley, a former resident of the Housing Authority of New Orleans (HANO), recalled how he systemically watched as HUD rehabilitated and rebuilt homes in his development after Hurricane Katrina. He complained that he and his neighbors were relegated to watching the progress while others came in and […]
  • 10:35 AM » Mortgage Rates Remain Near Three-Year Low
    Published Thu, Jun 23 2016 10:35 AM by
    Mortgage Rates Remain Near Three-Year Low
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 9:17 AM » U.S. jobless claims fall to near 43-year low
    Published Thu, Jun 23 2016 9:17 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON, (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell last week to near a 43-year low, suggesting labor market resilience even though hiring slowed sharply in May.
  • 9:15 AM » Dodd-Frank has failed. Here's why our plan is better: GOP rep
    Published Thu, Jun 23 2016 9:15 AM by CNBC
    Dodd-Frank's regulatory burdens are devastating the economy. Here's how our plan will fix that, says Congressman Blaine Luetkemeyer.
  • 8:00 AM » Architecture Billings Index increased "Sharply" in May
    Published Thu, Jun 23 2016 8:00 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Healthy demand for all building types signaled in Architecture Billings Index Led by a still active multi-family housing market and sustained by solid levels of demand for new commercial and retail properties, the Architecture Billings Index has accelerated to its highest score in nearly a year. As a leading economic indicator of construction activity, the ABI reflects the approximate nine to twelve month lead time between architecture billings and construction spending. The American Institute of Architects (AIA) reported the May ABI score was 53.1, up sharply from the mark of 50.6 in the previous month . This score reflects an increase in design services (any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings). The new projects inquiry index was 60.1, up from a reading of 56.9 the previous month. "Business conditions at design firms have hovered around the break-even rate for the better part of this year," said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. "Demand levels are solid across the board for all project types at the moment. Of particular note, the recent surge in design activity for institutional projects could be a harbinger of a new round of growth in the broader construction industry in the months ahead ." ... • Regional averages: West (53.8), South (53.7), Northeast (51.2), Midwest (49.9) • Sector index breakdown: multi-family residential (53.7), institutional (53.0), commercial / industrial (51.0), mixed practice (51.0) emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 53.1 in May, up from 50.6 in April. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 7:57 AM » America's 20 Hottest Real Estate Markets for June 2016
    Published Thu, Jun 23 2016 7:57 AM by
    Residential real estate markets kicked off the summer with the hottest June in a decade. However, there were signs of a slight slowdown at the top. The post America’s 20 Hottest Real Estate Markets for June 2016 appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 7:49 AM » Some mortgage servicers break U.S. rules, mostly due to technology: consumer bureau
    Published Thu, Jun 23 2016 7:49 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Some mortgage servicers are failing to follow federal rules intended to help struggling borrowers avoid foreclosure, often because they use faulty technology, the U.S. agency charged with protecting consumers' finances said on Wednesday.
  • Wed, Jun 22 2016
  • 3:52 PM » Yellen agrees it is too soon to take her ‘foot off the pedal' to help labor market
    Published Wed, Jun 22 2016 3:52 PM by Market Watch
    Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen on Wednesday agreed with a congressman who said it was too soon to let up on stimulus needed to help the labor market.
  • 3:13 PM » The IMF's Warning to the U.S.
    Published Wed, Jun 22 2016 3:13 PM by The Atlantic
    <p>The International Monetary Fund on Wednesday cut its estimate for U.S. economic growth for this year from 2.4 percent to 2.2 percent, and urged several measures to reduce growing poverty in the country.</p><blockquote class="twitter-video" data-lang="en"> <p dir="ltr" lang="en">.<a href="">@Lagarde</a> flags the 4 forces undermining future US growth. <a href=""></a> <a href=""></a></p> - IMF (@IMFNews) <a href="">June 22, 2016</a></blockquote><script async src="//" charset="utf-8"></script><p>Christine Lagarde, the IMF's managing director, said the U.S. economy was "<a href="">overall, in good shape</a>," but she highlighted four areas of concern: declining labor-force participation, lower productivity growth, income inequality, and "very high levels" of poverty. Here's more from her news conference:</p><blockquote> <p>Policies need to help lower income households - including through a higher federal minimum wage, more generous earned income tax credit, and upgraded social programs for the nonworking poor.</p> <p>There is a need to deepen and improve the provision of reasonable benefits to households to give incentives for work, raise the labor supply, and to support families. This should include paid...
  • 1:39 PM » Fed's Yellen says no special meetings scheduled over Brexit
    Published Wed, Jun 22 2016 1:39 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen said she has not scheduled special meetings for Friday or Saturday in order to respond to the "Brexit" vote in Britain over its membership in the European Union.
  • 1:38 PM » NY Fed may do 'enhanced monitoring' of SWIFT money transfers: Yellen
    Published Wed, Jun 22 2016 1:38 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York might begin taking closer looks at international money transfers using the SWIFT network, Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on Wednesday in response to questions over a recent theft by cyber criminals.
  • 11:48 AM » Rents Are Booming, But for How Long?
    Published Wed, Jun 22 2016 11:48 AM by
    Landlords begin to see slower increases in rent growth in big cities as more apartments come onto the market. The post Rents Are Booming, But for How Long? appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

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