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  • Fri, Dec 2 2016
  • 4:47 PM » The regulatory system 'needs to be debugged,' Blackstone co-founder Schwarzman says
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 4:47 PM by CNBC
    "That doesn't mean that all regulation is bad, but there's a certain balance," Stephen Schwarzman said Friday.
  • 4:47 PM » Zillow Forecast: Expect Case-Shiller Index to "continue to accelerate" in October
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 4:47 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Case-Shiller house price indexes for September were released Tuesday. Zillow forecasts Case-Shiller a month early, and I like to check the Zillow forecasts since they have been pretty close. From Zillow: October Case-Shiller Forecast: Continuing to put the Recession in the Rearview According to Zillow's October Case-Shiller forecast, annual growth in the national index is expected to continue to accelerate, along with upticks in monthly growth in both smaller 10-city and 20-city indices. Sustained growth in the national index will continue to put pre-recession housing peaks in the rearview mirror, as September marked the first month in which national home prices exceeded those set prior to the recession. The September Case-Shiller national index is expected to grow 5.7 percent year-over-year and 0.8 percent month-to-month (seasonally adjusted), even with the pace of monthly growth and up from 5.5 percent annual growth pace set in September. We expect the 10-city index to grow 4.2 percent year-over-year and 0.4 percent (SA) from September. The 20-City Index is expected to grow 5 percent between October 2015 and October 2016, and rise 0.5 percent (SA) from Septmber. Zillow's October Case-Shiller forecast is shown in the table below. These forecasts are based on today's September Case-Shiller data release and the October 2016 Zillow Home Value Index . The October S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices will not be officially released until Tuesday, December 27. The year-over-year change for the 10-city and 20-city indexes will probably be about the same or slightly lower in the October report as in the September report.  The change for the National index will probably be slightly higher.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 3:49 PM » Fed's Tarullo warns against 'backsliding' on bank regulations
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 3:49 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. banking regulators must defend tough rules governing Wall Street and resist efforts to dilute regulations that might prevent a future financial crisis, Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo said on Friday.
  • 3:48 PM » Gundlach's DoubleLine sees worst outflows since 2014 'taper tantrum'
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 3:48 PM by Market Watch
    DoubleLine Capital on Friday said its funds had collectively posted a net outflow of $990.5 million in November, the first month that share redemptions exceeded subscriptions since January 2014, during the Federal Reserve's so-called "taper tantrum." Tracking the trend of the overall market, the fund's bond portfolios saw particular outflows, with the DoubleLine Total Return Bond Fund - the firm's largest fund by assets, with $59.2 billion - seeing $1.4 billion in outflows over the month, the third largest monthly outflows in the fund's history. Bonds saw heavy selling in November, especially after the election of Donald Trump, with investors expecting the President-elect's proposals to lead to higher interest rates and inflation. November was the worst month for Treasurys since December 2009, with yields on the 10-year rising more than 50 basis points in the month. The $1.7 billion DoubleLine Shiller Enhanced CAPE fund, DoubleLine's biggest equities fund, saw $171.7 million in inflows over November. Stocks rallied following the election, with investors betting that Trump's policies would lead to accelerated levels of growth. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 4.5% since the election while the S&P 500 is up 2.4%.
  • 3:48 PM » Homeowners Hit the Jackpot
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 3:48 PM by
    Homeowners who stay put-living in the same home for 15, 20, 30 years-can pocket millions of dollars when they finally make a move. The post Homeowners Hit the Jackpot appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 3:48 PM » Trump's dilemma: slower job growth or rising rates and inflation?
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 3:48 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - A drop in the U.S. unemployment rate last month to a 9-year low signals the risk of a collision between President-elect Donald Trump's plans to goose the economy and the Federal Reserve's efforts to tap the brakes with higher interest rates.
  • 12:06 PM » El-Erian: Trump's Carrier Move Not a Scalable Policy - Bloomberg Video
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 12:06 PM by Bloomberg
    El-Erian: Trump's Carrier Move Not a Scalable Policy Bloomberg Mohamed El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz and Bloomberg View columnist, discusses the potential impact of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's economic policies on labor. He speaks on "Bloomberg Daybreak: Americas." (El-Erian is a Bloomberg ... and more »
  • 12:03 PM » Serious Delinquency Rates Improve Across Most Household Debts
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 12:03 PM by
    A recent release by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York indicates that, in aggregate, 90 or more day delinquency rates are falling on most household debt products. However, serious delinquency on student loans remains elevated while a greater portion of auto debt held by households with low credit scores is entering serious delinquency. The results indicate that household balance... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 12:02 PM » The real driver behind the dollar breakout
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 12:02 PM by Market Watch
    The reason for the massive selloff in U.S. bonds is clearly the Trump election victory, as too many investors got caught with a wrong-way bet that interest rates in the U.S. were likely to remain subdued, given that they are some of the highest in the developed world.
  • 9:32 AM » Mortgagee Letter 2016-20
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 9:32 AM by HUD
    2017 Nationwide Forward Mortgage Limits
  • 9:06 AM » The Labor Department says unemployment is at 4.6% — but here's the bigger picture
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 9:06 AM by CNBC
    Relying on that one headline number as an indicator of the economy ignores important information just below the surface.
  • 9:05 AM » Jobless rate slides to 4.6% on solid November
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 9:05 AM by CNBC
    This also will be the last major employment indicator before the Fed meets to decide whether to raise rates.
  • 8:21 AM » Investors may look to ECB for comfort after high-risk votes
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 8:21 AM by Reuters
    FRANKFURT (Reuters) - With Italy's constitutional referendum and Austria's presidential vote on Sunday both potentially underlining growing anti-establishmentism, the European Central Bank is preparing to set to try to bring some calm to the mix.
  • 8:12 AM » Europe's QE Starting Point Faces Risk as ECB Talk Turns to Taper
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 8:12 AM by Bloomberg
    Europe's QE Starting Point Faces Risk as ECB Talk Turns to Taper Bloomberg The risk of Mario Draghi turning "first in" to "first out" is stirring Europe's covered-bond market. The European Central Bank holds almost 25 percent of the region's covered bonds after starting purchases about two years ago as the first step in ... and more »
  • 8:12 AM » Bond investors eye jobs report
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 8:12 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were higher Friday morning as investors eyed the release of Friday's jobs report.
  • 8:12 AM » $4.1 billion pulled from U.S.-based taxable mutual bond funds during week: Lipper
    Published Fri, Dec 02 2016 8:12 AM by Reuters
    NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors pulled $4.1 billion from U.S.-based taxable-bond mutual funds, the most since June, as a bond selloff forced interest rates higher and rattled investors, Lipper data for the latest week showed on Thursday.
  • Thu, Dec 1 2016
  • 5:13 PM » DoubleLine's Gundlach says Trump rallies seem to be 'losing steam'
    Published Thu, Dec 01 2016 5:13 PM by Reuters
    Financial markets could reverse their solid momentum at the latest by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump's Jan. 20 inauguration, DoubleLine Capital Chief Executive Jeffrey Gundlach said on Thursday. The strong U.S. stock market rally, surge in Treasury yields and strength in the U.S. dollar since Trump's surprising Nov. 8 presidential victory look to be "losing steam," Gundlach, who oversees more than $106 billion at the Los Angeles-based investment management firm, said in a telephone interview.
    Published Thu, Dec 01 2016 3:53 PM by HUD
    WASHINGTON - The Federal Housing Administration (FHA) today announced the agency's new schedule of loan limits, and due to an increase in housing prices, most areas in the country will see a slight increase in loan limits in 2017 These loan limits are effective for case numbers assigned on or after January 1, 2017, and will remain in effect through the end of the year.
  • 3:43 PM » Goldman's November NFP Preview
    Published Thu, Dec 01 2016 3:43 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    A few excerpts from Goldman Sachs' November Payroll Preview by economists Avisha Thakkar and Daan Struyven: We forecast that nonfarm payroll growth increased to 200k in November , after an increase of 161k in October. We have revised up our forecast from 180k previously reflecting stronger data this week, in particular the ADP report. Our above-consensus forecast reflects an improvement in most labor market indicators last month, positive weather effects and possible residual seasonality. We expect a one-tenth decline in the U3 unemployment rate to 4.8% . Average hourly earnings likely rose at a softer 0.1% last month, primarily due to negative calendar effects, below the strong gain of 0.4% in October. The year-over-year rate is likely to edge down to 2.7%. emphasis added The November employment report will be released tomorrow, and the consensus is for an increase of 170,000 non-farm payroll jobs in November, and for the unemployment rate to be unchanged at 4.9%.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 2:13 PM » Multifamily Construction Spending Continues Strong Growth
    Published Thu, Dec 01 2016 2:13 PM by
    NAHB analysis of Census Construction Spending data shows that total private residential construction spending grew 1.6% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $472.9 billion. Multifamily construction spending continued its record breaking pace and reached $63.7 billion, up by 2.8% over the revised September estimates. It was 11.4% higher since October 2015. Single-family construction spending also increased by... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 2:13 PM » Trump's Carrier deal aside: Here's why most US factory jobs aren't coming home
    Published Thu, Dec 01 2016 2:13 PM by CNBC
    Increased productivity in U.S. factories will make it tough to restore the bulk of lost manufacturing jobs.
  • 2:13 PM » Chicago Expands Program to Sell Residents Vacant Lots for $1
    Published Thu, Dec 01 2016 2:13 PM by
    Program aims to shore up struggling neighborhoods by removing unkempt properties The post Chicago Expands Program to Sell Residents Vacant Lots for $1 appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 2:13 PM » Fed may face unnerving shake-up under Trump administration
    Published Thu, Dec 01 2016 2:13 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Change at the Federal Reserve could come quickly with President-elect Donald Trump's team pledging to promptly fill high-level central bank jobs and roll out a tax and fiscal plan that could rewrite policymakers' core economic assumptions.
  • 1:45 PM » Exclusive: ECB to extend asset buys but may signal eventual end
    Published Thu, Dec 01 2016 1:45 PM by Reuters
    The ECB will extend its bond purchases beyond March and consider sending a formal signal after its policy meeting next Thursday that the program will eventually end, senior sources with direct knowledge of discussions said. Even some skeptics of more stimulus on the bank's Governing Council have accepted that an extension beyond the current expiry date of March is inevitable given weak underlying inflation and heightened political risk, they said.
  • 11:41 AM » ISM manufacturing index climbs in Nov., construction spending up in Oct.
    Published Thu, Dec 01 2016 11:41 AM by CNBC
    The index was expected to hit 52.2 for November, an increase from 51.90 in the prior month's reading.
  • 11:38 AM » Heads up homeowners: Mortgage interest deduction on Trump's chopping block
    Published Thu, Dec 01 2016 11:38 AM by CNBC
    The incoming presidential administration is apparently not afraid to take a homeownership bonus: The mortgage interest deduction.
  • 11:38 AM » Mortgage Rates Continue Climbing
    Published Thu, Dec 01 2016 11:38 AM by
    Mortgage Rates Continue Climbing
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 9:43 AM » Jobless claims rise to five-month high
    Published Thu, Dec 01 2016 9:43 AM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON, Dec 1 (Reuters) - - The number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, hitting their highest level in five months, but the underlying trend remained consistent with a strengthening labor market.
  • 9:42 AM » Comptroller Discusses CRA and Affordable Housing
    Published Thu, Dec 01 2016 9:42 AM by OCC
    Comptroller of the Currency Thomas J. Curry today discussed efforts to enhance compliance supervision and the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA).
  • 9:42 AM » Manhattan Home Sellers Slow Sales Volume With Expectations of 40% Returns
    Published Thu, Dec 01 2016 9:42 AM by
    Manhattan home owners appear to have high hopes for their homes' values in a softening market.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 9:42 AM » How does the PHH case impact presidential authority to remove Director Cordray?
    Published Thu, Dec 01 2016 9:42 AM by
    Barbara S. Mishkin A blog post entitled “The President’s Removal Power and the PHH Litigation” by Aditya Bamzai, an Associate Professor of Law at the University of Virginia School of Law, challenges the assumption of many observers that the new President would have to let the PHH litigation run its course before acting to remove Director Cordray. As we... More >
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 9:37 AM » US stocks open higher; oil breaks above $50 per barrel
    Published Thu, Dec 01 2016 9:37 AM by CNBC
    U.S. equities opened slightly higher as investors prepared to digest economic data while oil prices built on sharp gains from the previous session.
  • 7:53 AM » Top Real Estate Markets for 2017: The West Leads the Way
    Published Thu, Dec 01 2016 7:53 AM by
    We predict that the nation's hottest markets will keep blazing in 2017, and that cities in the West will continue to lead the nation in prices and sales. The post Top Real Estate Markets for 2017: The West Leads the Way appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 7:51 AM » Treasurys fall as bond investors eye data, oil
    Published Thu, Dec 01 2016 7:51 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were lower Thursday morning as investors eyed a slew of economic data.
  • Wed, Nov 30 2016
  • 3:56 PM » Trump Names Mortgage Industry Lobbyist to HUD Transition Team
    Published Wed, Nov 30 2016 3:56 PM by
    Shawn Krause is executive vice president of government advocacy for Quicken Loans. The post Trump Names Mortgage Industry Lobbyist to HUD Transition Team appeared first on Real Estate News and Advice - .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

  • 1:43 PM » Fed's Mester: Rate hike now would help the economy
    Published Wed, Nov 30 2016 1:43 PM by CNBC
    Mester has pushed her colleagues to follow up on the December rate hike that was the first in more than nine years.
  • 1:41 PM » NY Fed: Household Debt Increased Slightly in Q3 2016, Mortgage Delinquency Rates Declined
    Published Wed, Nov 30 2016 1:41 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The Q3 report was released today:  Household Debt and Credit Report . From the NY Fed: Total Household Debt Remains Sluggish Yet Non-Housing Debt Continues Expanding The Federal Reserve Bank of New York today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit , which reported that total household debt increased modestly by $63 billion (a 0.5% increase) to $12.35 trillion during the third quarter of 2016. There were increases across every type of non-housing debt, with a 2.9% increase in auto loan balances, a 2.5% increase in credit card balances, and a 1.6% percent increase in student loan balances this quarter. This report is based on data from the New York Fed's Consumer Credit Panel, a nationally representative sample of individual- and household-level debt and credit records drawn from anonymized Equifax credit data. ... Mortgage delinquencies continued to decline as seen since the financial crisis, while new foreclosure notations reached another new low for the 18-year history of this series . ... Overall delinquency rates worsened slightly this quarter, while the rate of bankruptcy notations continued its overall trend of improving since the financial crisis. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Here are two graphs from the report: The first graph shows aggregate consumer debt increased in Q3.  Household debt peaked in 2008, and bottomed in Q2 2013. Mortgage debt decreased in Q3, from the NY Fed: Mortgage balances, the largest component of household debt saw a 0.1% decline during the quarter. Mortgage balances shown on consumer credit reports on September 30 stood at $8.35 trillion, a $12 billion drop from the second quarter of 2016. Balances on home equity lines of credit (HELOC) declined by $6 billion, to $472 billion. By contrast, balances on every type of non-housing debt grew in the second quarter, boosting up the total. The second graph shows the percent of debt in delinquency. The percent of delinquent debt is generally...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:20 AM » OPEC reaches agreement to cut oil production to 32.5 million barrels a day: Oil ministers
    Published Wed, Nov 30 2016 11:20 AM by CNBC
    OPEC has reached a deal to curtail oil production for the first time since 2008, according to several oil ministers.
  • 11:20 AM » U.S. crude inventories fall unexpectedly, big distillate build: EIA
    Published Wed, Nov 30 2016 11:20 AM by Reuters
    (Reuters) - U.S. crude oil stockpiles fell unexpectedly last week, while distillate inventories rose sharply, the Energy Information Administration's data showed on Wednesday.
  • 9:57 AM » Fed's Kaplan advocates rate hike, nods to Trump policies
    Published Wed, Nov 30 2016 9:57 AM by CNBC
    It is time for an interest-rate increase, Dallas Fed Bank President Robert Kaplan suggested on Wednesday.
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