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  • Fri, Aug 7 2020
  • 4:24 PM » Zillow CEO: Real estate market is beginning 'great reshuffling' as people seek more space at home
    Published Fri, Aug 07 2020 4:24 PM by CNBC
    The pandemic so far has accelerated trends of people fleeing large, expensive U.S. cities, While shopping is up everywhere, Barton said the company is seeing a "deceleration of migration" to cities and expects it to accelerate.
  • 3:01 PM » Markets could be challenged by Washington stimulus talks and China tensions
    Published Fri, Aug 07 2020 3:01 PM by CNBC
    The debate over the next round of stimulus and rising tensions between the White House and China could create headwinds for the market.
  • 1:41 PM » Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 35% Year-over-year
    Published Fri, Aug 07 2020 1:41 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From HotelNewsNow.com: STR: US hotel results for week ending 1 August U.S. hotel performance data for the week ending 1 August showed slightly higher occupancy and room rates from the previous week, according to STR. 26 July through 1 August 2020 (percentage change from comparable week in 2019): • Occupancy: 48.9% (-34.5%) • Average daily rate (ADR): US$100.04 (-25.3%) • Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$48.96 (-51.1%) U.S. occupancy has risen week over week for 15 of the last 16 weeks, although growth in demand (room nights sold) has slowed. emphasis added The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four week average . As STR noted, the occupancy rate has increased week-to-week in "15 of the last 16 weeks". The increases in occupancy have slowed and are well below the level for this week last year of 75%. Click on graph for larger image. The red line is for 2020, dash light blue is 2019, blue is the median, and black is for 2009 (the worst year probably since the Great Depression for hotels). According to STR, most of the improvement appears related to leisure travel as opposed to business travel. The leisure travel season usually peaks at the beginning of August (right now), and the occupancy declines sharply in the Fall. Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:10 PM » Canada to impose tariffs on $2.7 billion in U.S. goods after Trump reignites trade feud
    Published Fri, Aug 07 2020 1:10 PM by CNBC
    Canada's move came in response to President Donald Trump's decision to reimpose 10% aluminum duties on its trade partner.
  • 12:02 PM » Pandemic home remodeling is booming: Here's what your neighbors are doing
    Published Fri, Aug 07 2020 12:02 PM by CNBC
    Sheltering in place has homeowners wanting to improve their places. Demand for home remodeling soared in June, with outdoor spaces the most popular projects.
  • 11:06 AM » The jobs report was better than expected, but market worries gains will be fleeting without stimulus
    Published Fri, Aug 07 2020 11:06 AM by CNBC
    July's jobs report was a slight positive, but market focus remains on whether Congress can agree on stimulus to head off future job losses.
  • 8:31 AM » U.S. jobs rise by 1.763 million in July, vs 1.48 million expected
    Published Fri, Aug 07 2020 8:31 AM by CNBC
    U.S. jobs rise by 1.763 million in July, vs 1.48 million expected<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/07/jobs-report-july-2020.html
  • 8:06 AM » Treasury yields fall ahead of key jobs report; stimulus talks continue
    Published Fri, Aug 07 2020 8:06 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were higher Friday morning as investors awaited July's federal jobs report, while lawmakers continued to haggle over a fresh coronavirus relief bill.
  • Thu, Aug 6 2020
  • 4:43 PM » 32% of Americans had outstanding housing payments at the beginning of August
    Published Thu, Aug 06 2020 4:43 PM by CNBC
    August marked the fourth straight month that around one-third of U.S. households did not make their full housing payment on time, per Apartment List. In the first week of August, 11% of respondents made a partial payment, while 22% had yet to make any payment at all.
  • 1:51 PM » Mortgage rates hit another record low, but homes are still less affordable
    Published Thu, Aug 06 2020 1:51 PM by CNBC
    Mortgage rates fell to yet another record low this week, the eighth new record set this year, but home affordability is still weakening. The housing shortage, high demand from buyers and rising home prices are negating the benefits of lower rates.
  • 1:50 PM » The number of Americans skipping mortgage payments is falling — except among these borrowers
    Published Thu, Aug 06 2020 1:50 PM by www.realtor.com
    For nearly two months now, the share of mortgage borrowers who has received approval to skip their monthly loan payments has fallen precipitously. The post The number of Americans skipping mortgage payments is falling - except among these borrowers appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 11:26 AM » NY Fed Q2 Report: "Total Household Debt Decreased in Q2 2020, Marking First Decline Since 2014"
    Published Thu, Aug 06 2020 11:26 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the NY Fed: Total Household Debt Decreased in Q2 2020, Marking First Decline Since 2014 The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today issued its Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit , which shows that total household debt decreased by $34 billion (0.2%) to $14.27 trillion in second quarter of 2020. This marks the first decline since the second quarter of 2014 and is the largest decline since the second quarter of 2013. The Report is based on data from the New York Fed's Consumer Credit Panel, a nationally representative sample of individual- and household-level debt and credit records drawn from anonymized Equifax credit data. This latest report reflects consumer credit data as of June 30, 2020. Mortgage balances-the largest component of household debt-rose by $63 billion in the second quarter to $9.78 trillion. Mortgage originations, which include mortgage refinances, reached $846 billion, the highest volume seen since the refinance boom in 2013. Origination credit scores for mortgages increased notably in the second quarter of 2020. Reflecting the sharp decline in overall consumer spending due to the COVID-19 pandemic and related social distancing orders, credit card balances fell sharply by $76 billion in the second quarter. This was the steepest decline in card balances seen in the history of the data . Auto and student loan balances were roughly flat in the second quarter. In total, non-housing balances (including credit card, auto loan, student loan, and other debts) saw the largest drop in the history of this report, with an $86 billion decline. Aggregate delinquency rates dropped markedly in the second quarter , reflecting increased uptake of forbearances, which were provided by the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act. Note that accounts in forbearance are typically marked as current on consumer credit reports. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Here are two graphs from the...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:59 AM » Second Wave of U.S. Layoffs and Furloughs is Well Under Way
    Published Thu, Aug 06 2020 10:59 AM by d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net
    ● Of workers who were placed back on payrolls after being initially laid off/furloughed as a result of the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis, 31% report that they have been laid off a second time, and another 26% of those placed back on payrolls report being told by their employer that they may be laid off again. These results were surprisingly higher for workers in states that have not been experiencing recent COVID-19 surges, relative to those in surging states.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net
  • 10:27 AM » Las Vegas Real Estate in July: Sales up 4% YoY, Inventory down 35% YoY
    Published Thu, Aug 06 2020 10:27 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    This report is for closed sales in July; sales are counted at the close of escrow, so the contracts for these homes were mostly signed in May and June. The Las Vegas Realtors reported Southern Nevada home prices remain in record territory despite pandemic; LVR housing statistics for July 2020 LVR reported a total of 4,025 existing local homes, condos and townhomes were sold during July. Compared to the same time last year, July sales were up 5.3% for homes, but down 3.3% for condos and townhomes . Sales were up significantly from the previous month. ... By the end of July, LVR reported 4,806 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. That's down 38.4% from one year ago. For condos and townhomes, the 1,581 properties listed without offers in July represented a 15.2% drop from one year ago. Despite the coronavirus crisis, the number of so-called distressed sales in July remained near historically low levels. The association reported that short sales and foreclosures combined accounted for just 1.2% of all existing local property sales in July. That compares to 2.0% of all sales one year ago, 2.9% two years ago and 6.4% three years ago. emphasis added 1) Overall sales were up 3.7% year-over-year to 4,025 in July 2020 from 3,883 in July 2019. 2) Active inventory (single-family and condos) is down from a year ago, from a total of 9,752 in July 2019 to 6,387 in July 2020. Note: Total inventory was down 34.5% year-over-year.   And months of inventory is still low. 3) Low level of distressed sales.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:58 AM » Attention Home Buyers: Foreign Buyers Purchased Fewer U.S. Properties
    Published Thu, Aug 06 2020 9:58 AM by www.realtor.com
    There's a surprising amount of competition in the housing market this summer. But most home shoppers won't find themselves sparring with foreign buyers. The post Attention Home Buyers: Foreign Buyers Purchased Fewer U.S. Properties appeared first on Real Estate News & Insights | realtor.com® .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.realtor.com
  • 9:58 AM » Housing Affordability Hits 18-Month Low on Lack of Supply, Higher Prices
    Published Thu, Aug 06 2020 9:58 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    Despite low interest rates, a supply shortage coupled with rising home prices contributed to a decline in housing affordability in the second quarter of 2020, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI). In all, 59.6 percent of new and existing homes sold between the beginning of April and end of June were affordable... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 8:33 AM » U.S. weekly jobless claims total 1.186 million, vs 1.423 million expected
    Published Thu, Aug 06 2020 8:33 AM by CNBC
    U.S. weekly jobless claims total 1.186 million, vs 1.423 million expected<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/06/weekly-jobless-claims.html
  • 8:10 AM » Manhattan apartment deals plunge 57%, suburban real estate surges
    Published Thu, Aug 06 2020 8:10 AM by CNBC
    Apartment contracts in Manhattan fell by more than half in July, while deals in many New York suburbs more than doubled, showing a continued flight from the city over the summer.
  • 8:09 AM » Bank of England governor says negative rates are 'in the toolbox,' but there are no plans cut below zero
    Published Thu, Aug 06 2020 8:09 AM by CNBC
    His comments came after the BOE's Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously to keep benchmark interest rates at an all-time low of 0.1%.
  • 8:04 AM » Stock market live updates: Futures dip, jobless claims ahead
    Published Thu, Aug 06 2020 8:04 AM by CNBC
    Stock futures moved slightly lower early Thursday as investors awaited weekly jobless claims data.
  • Wed, Aug 5 2020
  • 4:09 PM » Just 36% of parents want full-time in-person schools this fall
    Published Wed, Aug 05 2020 4:09 PM by CNBC
    In late May and early June, Gallup surveyed parents of children in K-12 and found that 56% wanted full-time in-person school this fall. Now, according to Gallup's latest estimates, just 36% of parents want full-time in-person schools this semester.
  • 3:19 PM » Will Zillow buy my house? Yes, Zillow resumes buying in 24 cities after COVID pause.
    Published Wed, Aug 05 2020 3:19 PM by The Basis Point
    The answer to "will Zillow buy my house instantly?" was No when COVID first hit America. Now Zillow resumed buying homes in these 24 cities. Here's a briefing.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: The Basis Point
  • 11:00 AM » Business Application Shows Growth in Q2 2020
    Published Wed, Aug 05 2020 11:00 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    Housing creates jobs, and housing in turn follows job growth from business activity. Thus, tracking the growth of enterprise provides a guide to future home building. The Census Bureau recently released its Second Quarter 2020 Business Formation Statistics Report (BFS). The report provides timely and high-frequency data on business applications and employer business formations measured by applications for an Employer... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 10:28 AM » ISM Services Index increased to 58.1% in July, Employment Index Declined
    Published Wed, Aug 05 2020 10:28 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The July ISM Services index was at 58.1%, up from 57.1% in June. The employment index decreased to 42.1%, from 43.1%. Note: Above 50 indicates expansion, below 50 contraction. From the Institute for Supply Management: July 2020 Services ISM Report On Business® July 2020 Services ISM® Report On Business®; Business Activity Index at 67.2%; New Orders Index at 67.7%; Employment Index at 42.1% ; Supplier Deliveries Index at 55.2% Economic activity in the Services sector (formally non-manufacturing sector) grew in July for the second month in a row, say the nation's purchasing and supply executives in the latest Services ISM® Report On Business®. The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Services Business Survey Committee: " The Services PMI™ registered 58.1 percent , 1 percentage point higher than the June reading of 57.1 percent. This reading represents growth in the services sector for the second straight month after contraction in April and May, preceded by a 122-month period of expansion. "The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 55.2 percent, down 2.3 percentage points from June's reading of 57.5 percent. Supplier Deliveries is the only ISM® Report On Business® index that is inversed; a reading of above 50 percent indicates slower deliveries, which is typical as the economy improves and customer demand increases. The higher readings for supplier deliveries in the three months prior to June were primarily a product of supply problems related to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic. Supplier deliveries are now more closely correlating to the current supply and demand. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the ISM services index (started in January 2008) and the ISM services employment diffusion index. The employment index showed ongoing weakness.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:41 AM » Fed Vice Chair Clarida still sees the economy staging a comeback this year
    Published Wed, Aug 05 2020 9:41 AM by CNBC
    The central bank's director of bank supervision said he hasn't changed his forecast despite a swell in Covid-19 cases that have caused a general slowing in resumption of activities
  • 8:47 AM » Trade Deficit decreased to $50.7 Billion in June
    Published Wed, Aug 05 2020 8:47 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Department of Commerce reported : The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $50.7 billion in June , down $4.1 billion from $54.8 billion in May, revised. June exports were $158.3 billion, $13.6 billion more than May exports. June imports were $208.9 billion, $9.5 billion more than May imports. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. Both exports and imports increased in June. Exports are down 24% compared to June 2019; imports are down 20% compared to June 2019. Both imports and exports decreased sharply due to COVID-19. The second graph shows the U.S. trade deficit, with and without petroleum. The blue line is the total deficit, and the black line is the petroleum deficit, and the red line is the trade deficit ex-petroleum products. Note that the U.S. exported a slight net positive petroleum products in recent months. Oil imports averaged $35.34 per barrel in June, up from $27.55 per barrel in May, and down from $58.72 in June 2019. The trade deficit with China decreased to $28.4 billion in June, from $29.8 billion in June 2019.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:47 AM » Survey: 25% of Homebuyers Are Moving—Or Moving Sooner Than Planned—Because of the Pandemic
    Published Wed, Aug 05 2020 8:47 AM by www.redfin.com
    Low mortgage rates, spending more time at home and working from home are driving forces for people moving due to the coronavirus pandemic. The post Survey: 25% of Homebuyers Are Moving-Or Moving Sooner Than Planned-Because of the Pandemic appeared first on Redfin | Real Estate Tips for Home Buying, Selling & More .
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 8:21 AM » Private payrolls grow by 167,000 in July, well below expectations
    Published Wed, Aug 05 2020 8:21 AM by CNBC
    The move to get displaced workers back to their jobs slowed sharply in July, with private payrolls increasing by just 167,000, ADP reported Wednesday.
  • 8:05 AM » Moderna second-quarter revenue jumps fivefold on coronavirus vaccine development
    Published Wed, Aug 05 2020 8:05 AM by CNBC
    Moderna second-quarter revenue jumps fivefold on coronavirus vaccine development<br/>https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/05/moderna-second-quarter-revenue-jumps-fivefold-on-coronavirus-vaccine-development.html
  • Tue, Aug 4 2020
  • 4:28 PM » The Fed is expected to make a major commitment to ramping up inflation soon
    Published Tue, Aug 04 2020 4:28 PM by CNBC
    Officials would pledge not to raise interest rates until both the inflation and employment targets are hit.
  • 11:31 AM » Congress struggles to break coronavirus aid stalemate as economic pain continues
    Published Tue, Aug 04 2020 11:31 AM by CNBC
    After another day of talks, negotiators cite progress on another coronavirus stimulus bill but remain far from a deal.
  • 11:31 AM » Home prices see strong June bounce, but economists warn it likely won't last
    Published Tue, Aug 04 2020 11:31 AM by CNBC
    Home prices in June saw their strongest monthly rise in seven years, spurred on by strong buyer demand and record low mortgage rates. Forecasters, however, say the gains will start to moderate soon, and prices could end up slightly lower by June 2021.
  • 11:25 AM » Treasury and Mortgage Rate Spread Widens in July
    Published Tue, Aug 04 2020 11:25 AM by eyeonhousing.org
    The month of July witnessed a sustained downward trend in the 10-year U.S. Treasury, as it dipped below 0.6%. Despite the downward trend of Treasuries, which are a proxy measure of the risk-free rate that the government offers on debt, mortgage rates through July did not decrease proportionately. The spread between the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate... Read More ›
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: eyeonhousing.org
  • 11:25 AM » Update: Framing Lumber Prices Up 81% Year-over-year
    Published Tue, Aug 04 2020 11:25 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here is another monthly update on framing lumber prices.   Lumber prices are up 81% year-over-year. This graph shows two measures of lumber prices: 1) Framing Lumber from Random Lengths through July 31, 2020 ( via NAHB ), and 2) CME framing futures. Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. Right now Random Lengths prices are up 81% from a year ago, and CME futures are up 60% year-over-year. There is a seasonal pattern for lumber prices, and usually prices will increase in the Spring, and peak around May, and then bottom around October or November - although there is quite a bit of seasonal variability. Prices fell sharply due to COVID-19, however prices have roared back (Note: Construction was considered an essential activity in many areas, so construction didn't decline as much as some other sectors). This is the highest price for Random Lengths lumber, and futures are just below the previous record set in 2018.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:55 AM » Despite Mask Wars, Americans Support Aggressive Measures To Stop COVID-19, Poll Finds
    Published Tue, Aug 04 2020 9:55 AM by www.npr.org
    Two-thirds of Americans believe the U.S. is handling the pandemic worse than other nations, an NPR/Ipsos poll finds. Majorities support more aggressive measures to stop the spread of the coronavirus.
  • 9:52 AM » Mortgage and housing assistance during the coronavirus national emergency
    Published Tue, Aug 04 2020 9:52 AM by CFPB
    The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) , and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) are working together to help homeowners and renters during the coronavirus pandemic.
  • 8:49 AM » CoreLogic: House Prices up 4.9% Year-over-year in June
    Published Tue, Aug 04 2020 8:49 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Notes: This CoreLogic House Price Index report is for June . The recent Case-Shiller index release was for May. The CoreLogic HPI is a three month weighted average and is not seasonally adjusted (NSA). From CoreLogic: Continued Strength and Resiliency: CoreLogic Reports Home Price Growth Accelerated in June Nationally, home prices increased by 4.9% in June 2020 , compared with June 2019. Month over month, home prices increased 1%, compared with May of this year, the fastest monthly gain for the month of June since 2013. CoreLogic's HPI forecast predicts a modest decline in home prices over the twelve months ending June 2021 . A sign of a solid foundation and resiliency in the housing market in the face of the pandemic, stronger home prices this summer reflect improved affordability, demographic demands, supply constraints and continued strong interest in purchasing a home . These factors combined to keep home prices steady despite the continued pressure of the pandemic and related economic fall-out. "Mortgage rates hit record lows this spring, which enhanced affordability for home buyers," said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. "First-time buyers, and millennials in particular, have jumped at the opportunity to achieve homeownership." "Home price appreciation continues at a solid pace reflecting fundamental strength in demand drivers and limited for-sale inventory," said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "As we move forward, we expect these price increases to moderate over the next twelve months. Given the economic outlook, housing remains a bright spot for the foreseeable future." emphasis added CR Note: The overall impact on house prices will depend on the duration of the crisis.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:14 AM » Coronavirus live updates: Regeneron reports positive results for antibody drug; WHO explores virus origin in China
    Published Tue, Aug 04 2020 8:14 AM by CNBC
    The coronavirus has infected more than 18.31 million people around the world as of Tuesday, killing at least 694,700 people.
  • 8:11 AM » Twitter warns about possible $250 million FTC fine
    Published Tue, Aug 04 2020 8:11 AM by CNBC
    Twitter on Monday disclosed that it expects to lose as much as $250 million as a result of the July 15 bitcoin scam security breach after receiving a draft complaint from the Federal Trade Commission.
  • 8:06 AM » Home Depot wants to speed up deliveries with new distribution centers as pandemic fuels home projects
    Published Tue, Aug 04 2020 8:06 AM by CNBC
    Home Depot will open three distribution centers in the Atlanta area over the next 18 months to keep up with customers' demands for speed and convenience.
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