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  • Fri, Sep 24 2021
  • 2:00 PM » Europe shares fall, Wall St pauses as Evergrande fears hover; U.S. yields rise
    Published Fri, Sep 24 2021 2:00 PM by Reuters
    European equity markets fell on Friday and major U.S. indexes were little changed as worries over fallout from debt-laden China Evergrande persisted, while U.S. bond yields pushed higher after hawkish stances from central banks.
  • 1:33 PM » Two Fed policymakers say bar for taper met, nod to next debates
    Published Fri, Sep 24 2021 1:33 PM by Reuters
    (Reuters) -A pair of Federal Reserve policymakers on Friday said they felt the U.S. economy is already in good enough shape for the central bank to begin to withdraw support for the economy, setting up for the next big debates for the central bank: when to raise interest rates and what to do with the Fed's massive balance sheet.
  • 12:41 PM » Less Intense Multi-bidding and Fewer First-time Buyers in August 2021
    Published Fri, Sep 24 2021 12:41 PM by www.nar.realtor
    The intense multi-bidding seen during the summer is simmering down, due in part to a seasonal decline, but also because first-time buyers are stepping away due to the lack of affordable homes.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.nar.realtor
  • 11:49 AM » Comments on August New Home Sales
    Published Fri, Sep 24 2021 11:49 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    In the Newsletter I have Comments on August New Home Sales Excerpt: Sales, year to date in 2021, are only 2.4% ahead of sales in 20202, and new home sales in 2021 will be below sales in 2020 - since sales in 2020 finished strong. This graph shows new home sales for 2020 and 2021 by month (Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 9:09 AM » September Vehicle Sales Forecast: "Disappearing Inventory Taking U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to Another Low in September"
    Published Fri, Sep 24 2021 9:09 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From WardsAuto: Disappearing Inventory Taking U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales to Another Low in September (pay content) Low inventories and supply issues continue to impacting vehicle sales. Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows actual sales from the BEA (Blue), and Wards forecast for September (Red). The Wards forecast of 12.4 million SAAR, would be down about 5% from last month, and down 23.8% from a year ago (sales were solid in September 2020, as sales recovered from the depths of the pandemic).
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:05 AM » 'I was expecting something more quiet,' Lagarde admits on her ECB top job
    Published Fri, Sep 24 2021 8:05 AM by CNBC
    ECB President Christine Lagarde has told CNBC that she thought her tenure at the Frankfurt-based institution would have been a bit "more quiet."
  • 8:03 AM » Evergrande investors in limbo after payment deadline passes
    Published Fri, Sep 24 2021 8:03 AM by Reuters
    SINGAPORE/SHANGHAI (Reuters) -China Evergrande has left global investors guessing over whether it will make a key interest payment, adding to fears that Beijing will let overseas bondholders swallow large losses as a liquidity crisis deepens at the world's most indebted property company.
  • Thu, Sep 23 2021
  • 4:40 PM » Fed's Powell opens door to tougher regulations as renomination decision looms
    Published Thu, Sep 23 2021 4:40 PM by Reuters
    Even as Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell predictably dodged the latest question over his future as head of the central bank, his signal of openness to Democratic demands for tougher regulation of Wall Street under a new regulatory chief may assuage what critics see as a weak point in his leadership.
  • 12:49 PM » Stocks soar, dollar sags as investors weigh Fed, Evergrande
    Published Thu, Sep 23 2021 12:49 PM by Reuters
    World stock markets rallied on Thursday and the U.S. dollar retreated from one-month highs as risk appetite heated up as investors digested the Federal Reserve's plans for reining in stimulus and worries about contagion from China Evegrande calmed.
  • 9:43 AM » CoreLogic: 1.2 Million Homes with Negative Equity in Q2 2021
    Published Thu, Sep 23 2021 9:43 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From CoreLogic: Homeowners Gained $2.9 Trillion in Equity in Q2 2021, CoreLogic Reports CoreLogic® ... today released the Homeowner Equity Report for the second quarter of 2021. The report shows U.S. homeowners with mortgages (which account for roughly 63% of all properties) have seen their equity increase by 29.3% year over year, representing a collective equity gain of over $2.9 trillion, and an average gain of $51,500 per borrower, since the second quarter of 2020. ... "The growth in homeowner equity provides a strong financial cushion for tens of millions Americans. For those most impacted by the pandemic, equity gains will help play a critical role in staving off foreclosure," said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. "Based on projected increases in economic activity and home values over the next year, we expect to see further gains in equity and a corresponding drop in negative equity, forbearance rates and foreclosure." ... Negative equity, also referred to as underwater or upside down mortgages, applies to borrowers who owe more on their mortgages than their homes are currently worth. As of the second quarter of 2021, negative equity share, and the quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year changes, were as follows: • Quarterly change: From the first quarter of 2021 to the second quarter of 2021, the total number of mortgaged homes in negative equity decreased by 12% to 1.2 million homes, or 2.3% of all mortgaged properties . • Annual change: In the second quarter of 2020, 1.8 million homes, or 3.3% of all mortgaged properties, were in negative equity. This number decreased by 30%, or 520,000 properties, in the second quarter of 2021. • The national aggregate value of negative equity was approximately $268 billion at the end of the second quarter of 2021. This is down quarter over quarter by approximately $5.2 billion, or 1.9%, from $273.2 billion in the first quarter of 2021, and down year over year by approximately $18.9 billion...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:35 AM » U.S. weekly jobless claims total 351,000 topping 320,000 estimate
    Published Thu, Sep 23 2021 8:35 AM by CNBC
    Initial jobless claims for the week ended Sept. 18 were expected to total 320,000, according to economists surveyed by Dow Jones.
  • 8:03 AM » Treasury yields mixed after Fed says it may soon taper its bond buying
    Published Thu, Sep 23 2021 8:03 AM by CNBC
    The benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yield made up some of its overnight losses on Thursday after the Federal Reserve said that it may soon curtail its asset purchase program.
  • 8:02 AM » China's mom-and-pop investors, builders and homebuyers caught in Evergrande debt crisis
    Published Thu, Sep 23 2021 8:02 AM by Reuters
    At an eerily quiet construction site in eastern China' Suzhou, worker Li Hongjun says property developer Evergrande's debt crisis means he will soon run out of food. Christina Xie, who works in export in the bustling southern city of Shenzhen, fears Evergrande has swallowed her life savings.
  • Wed, Sep 22 2021
  • 3:15 PM » Half of the Fed members now see the central bank hiking rates next year
    Published Wed, Sep 22 2021 3:15 PM by CNBC
    Wednesday's forecast showed nine of the eighteen FOMC members expect a rate hike in 2022. That's up from seven in June's Fed projections.
  • 2:10 PM » Fed flags bond-buying taper 'soon,' rate hike shifts to 2022
    Published Wed, Sep 22 2021 2:10 PM by Reuters
    The Federal Reserve on Wednesday cleared the way to reduce its monthly bond purchases "soon" and signaled interest rate increases may follow more quickly than expected, with nine of 18 U.S. central bank policymakers projecting borrowing costs will need to rise in 2022.
  • 1:40 PM » U.S. Senate showdown vote on debt limit could come next week
    Published Wed, Sep 22 2021 1:40 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. Senate could see a vote next week on raising Washington's borrowing authority and keeping the government funded, the chamber's No. 2 Democrat said on Wednesday, though Republicans warned that they would vote against the bill.
  • 1:18 PM » Why renters are struggling so much now
    Published Wed, Sep 22 2021 1:18 PM by CNBC
    The present troubles for renters are explained in large part by inequities that predate the Covid pandemic.
  • 1:18 PM » AIA: "Architecture billings continue to increase" in August
    Published Wed, Sep 22 2021 1:18 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Note: This index is a leading indicator primarily for new Commercial Real Estate (CRE) investment. From the AIA: Architecture billings continue to increase The Architecture Billings Index (ABI) recorded its seventh consecutive positive month, according to a new report today from The American Institute of Architects (AIA). The ABI score for August was 55.6 , up from July's score of 54.6. Any score above 50 indicates an increase in billings from the prior month. During August, scoring for both the new project inquiries and design contracts moderated slightly but remained in positive territory, posting scores of 64.7 and 56.6 respectively. "The surge in design activity continued in August, signifying an expected upturn in construction activity in the fourth quarter and continuing into 2022 ," said AIA Chief Economist, Kermit Baker, Hon. AIA, PhD. "This expected expansion will magnify the already serious problems of price inflation and availability of many construction products and materials, as well as the emerging labor shortages in the industry." ... • Regional averages: West (57.2); Midwest (55.2); South (52.5); Northeast (51.7) • Sector index breakdown: mixed practice (56.0); commercial/industrial (54.7); institutional (54.4); multi-family residential (54.3) emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. This graph shows the Architecture Billings Index since 1996. The index was at 55.6 in August, up from 54.6 in July. Anything above 50 indicates expansion in demand for architects' services. Note: This includes commercial and industrial facilities like hotels and office buildings, multi-family residential, as well as schools, hospitals and other institutions. This index had been below 50 for eleven consecutive months, but has been solidly positive for the last seven months.   The eleven months of decline represented a significant decrease in design services, and suggests a decline in CRE investment through most of 2021 ...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 11:27 AM » Fed likely to open bond-buying 'taper' door, but hedge on outlook
    Published Wed, Sep 22 2021 11:27 AM by Reuters
    The Federal Reserve is expected to clear the way on Wednesday for reductions to its monthly asset purchases later this year and show in updated projections whether higher-than-expected inflation or a resurgent coronavirus pandemic is weighing more on the economic outlook.
  • 10:44 AM » Here's why the Evergrande crisis is not China's 'Lehman moment'
    Published Wed, Sep 22 2021 10:44 AM by CNBC
    Property developer China Evergrande's debt woes are unlikely to cause the same fallout as the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008, analysts said.
  • 10:05 AM » Existing home sales fall 2% as first-time buyers are priced out
    Published Wed, Sep 22 2021 10:05 AM by CNBC
    The share of first-time buyers fell to just 19% of all sales, the lowest since January 2019.
  • 8:57 AM » Demand for Second Homes Fell 19% Year Over Year in August
    Published Wed, Sep 22 2021 8:57 AM by www.redfin.com
    Still, interest in vacation homes will likely remain above pre-pandemic levels for the foreseeable future due to the permanent shift to remote work for many Americans. Demand for second homes dropped 19.3% year over year in August, marking the third-straight month of declines. Demand for primary homes also fell, slipping 1% year over year in
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: www.redfin.com
  • 8:34 AM » Jamie Dimon warns it's possible the Fed could be forced into a sharp move next year
    Published Wed, Sep 22 2021 8:34 AM by CNBC
    Jamie Dimon said that if the U.S. continues to see inflation running hot over the next few months then the central bank could be forced to act quickly.
  • 8:04 AM » U.S. Treasury yields rise ahead of Fed decision
    Published Wed, Sep 22 2021 8:04 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were higher on Wednesday morning as investors awaited to hear from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell.
  • Tue, Sep 21 2021
  • 3:42 PM » The Fed will try to soothe markets Wednesday, while preparing investors for end to bond buying
    Published Tue, Sep 21 2021 3:42 PM by CNBC
    After Monday's market turbulence, the Fed's challenge will be to sound reassuring while acknowledging it is getting ready to move away from its easy policy.
  • 3:42 PM » Prime Age Participation Rate
    Published Tue, Sep 21 2021 3:42 PM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Here is an initial look at the prime age (25 to 54) participation rate. The first graph shows the prime age participation rate since 1948. Click on graph for larger image. There are two clear long term trends: 1. The participation rate for prime age women increased significantly from around 34% in the '40s to around 77% in 2000 (and then started declining). 2. The participation rate for prime age men has gradually been decreasing, from close to 97% in the '40s to around 88% in 2014. The second graphs show the trend since 2010. The participation rate for both men and women appears to have bottomed around 2014, and then were impacted significantly by the pandemic in 2020. Currently the participation rate for prime age women is 75.4%, and 88.4% for prime age men. Some of increase in the second half of the last decade was probably due to a large cohort aging out of the "prime age".   Even in the prime age (25 to 54), different cohorts have different participation rates, with the group in the 50 to 54 having the lowest participation rate.    I'll look at an age adjusted graph soon.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 1:49 PM » The Fed likely will wait until November for taper announcement, CNBC survey indicates
    Published Tue, Sep 21 2021 1:49 PM by CNBC
    The survey of 32 market participants shows they expect the Fed to announce a reduction in its monthly asset purchases in November.
  • 11:30 AM » U.S. House to vote Tuesday to fund gov't through Dec. 3, raise debt limit
    Published Tue, Sep 21 2021 11:30 AM by Reuters
    The U.S. House of Representatives on Tuesday is scheduled to debate and vote on legislation to fund the federal government through Dec. 3 and raise the nation's borrowing limit, according to the House Appropriations Committee.
  • 9:56 AM » China Evergrande's rising default risks shift focus to possible Beijing rescue
    Published Tue, Sep 21 2021 9:56 AM by Reuters
    Persistent default fears eclipsed efforts by China Evergrande Group's chairman to lift confidence in the embattled firm on Tuesday, as Beijing showed no signs it would intervene to stem any domino effects across the global economy.
  • 8:54 AM » Housing Starts increased to 1.615 Million Annual Rate in August
    Published Tue, Sep 21 2021 8:54 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions Housing Starts: Privately-owned housing starts in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,615,000 . This is 3.9 percent above the revised July estimate of 1,554,000 and is 17.4 percent above the August 2020 rate of 1,376,000. Single-family housing starts in August were at a rate of 1,076,000; this is 2.8 percent below the revised July figure of 1,107,000. The August rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 530,000 Building Permits: Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in August were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,728,000. This is 6.0 percent above the revised July rate of 1,630,000 and is 13.5 percent above the August 2020 rate of 1,522,000. Single-family authorizations in August were at a rate of 1,054,000; this is 0.6 percent above the revised July figure of 1,048,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 632,000 in August. emphasis added Click on graph for larger image. The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts for the last several years. Multi-family starts (red, 2+ units) increased in August compared to July.   Multi-family starts were up 53% year-over-year in August. Single-family starts (blue) decreased in August, and were up 5% year-over-year.    The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968. The second graph shows the huge collapse following the housing bubble, and then the eventual recovery (but still not historically high). Total housing starts in August were above expectations, and starts in June and July were revised up slightly. I'll have more later
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:05 AM » U.S. Treasury yields bounce slightly after Monday's big sell-off in equities
    Published Tue, Sep 21 2021 8:05 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were higher on Tuesday morning as investors navigated the market sell-off in equities.
  • Mon, Sep 20 2021
  • 4:20 PM » Banks consider climate risk for home loans, a process called 'underwaterwriting' or 'blue-lining'
    Published Mon, Sep 20 2021 4:20 PM by CNBC
    Blue-lining is when banks or mortgage lenders draw lines of risk around certain neighborhoods and streets, often without clear disclosure.
  • 4:00 PM » U.S. Democrats set showdown with Republicans on federal debt limit
    Published Mon, Sep 20 2021 4:00 PM by Reuters
    WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The top Democrats in the U.S. Congress on Monday said they would aim to continue funding the government and increase its borrowing authority in a single bill in coming days, setting up a showdown with Republicans who have vowed not to approve more debt.
  • 2:43 PM » Wall St drops 2% on growth worries; focus turns to Fed?
    Published Mon, Sep 20 2021 2:43 PM by Reuters
    (Reuters) -Wall Street's main indexes tumbled on Monday, as concerns about the pace of a global recovery spurred a selloff across sectors at the start of a week in which the Federal Reserve will decide on potentially tapering its pandemic-era stimulus.
  • 12:56 PM » China Evergrande contagion concerns rile global markets
    Published Mon, Sep 20 2021 12:56 PM by Reuters
    HONG KONG (Reuters) -Growing fears of China Evergrande defaulting rattled global markets on Monday as investors worried about the potential impact on the wider economy dumped Chinese property stocks and sought refuge in safe-haven assets.
  • 11:45 AM » Housing Inventory Sept 20th Update: Inventory Up 1.2% Week-over-week, Up 42% from Low in early April
    Published Mon, Sep 20 2021 11:45 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    Tracking existing home inventory will be very important this year . Click on graph for larger image in graph gallery. This inventory graph is courtesy of Altos Research . As of September 17th, inventory was at 436 thousand (7 day average), compared to 573 thousand for the same week a year ago.  That is a decline of 23.8%. Compared to the same week in 2019, inventory is down 55%. A week ago, inventory was at 431 thousand, and was down 25.5% YoY.   Two weeks ago inventory was at 437 thousand (the peak for the year so far). Seasonally, inventory has bottomed, but may be peaking for the year .   Inventory was about 42.4% above the record low in early April. A couple of interesting points from 2019:   In 2019, inventory bottomed at 814 thousand in February (so inventory is still very low compared to normal levels).   And, in 2019, inventory peaked at 972 thousand in early August (an increase of 158 thousand, or about 19% from the low).   So inventory is less than half of what we'd normally expect, however inventory has increased 130 thousand (almost normal). Key question:  Usually inventory peaks in the Summer, and then declines into the Fall.  Will inventory follow the normal seasonal pattern, or will inventory continue to increase over the coming months?  This will be important to watch for house prices and housing activity.   Mike Simonsen discusses this data regularly on Youtube .   Altos Research has also seen a significant pickup in price decreases - now well above the level of a year ago - but still below a normal rate for August.
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 10:22 AM » NAHB: Builder Confidence Increased to 76 in September
    Published Mon, Sep 20 2021 10:22 AM by Calculated Risk Blog
    The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported the housing market index (HMI) was at 76, up from 75 in August. Any number above 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as good than poor. From the NAHB: Builder Confidence Steadies as Material and Labor Challenges Persist Builder confidence inched up in September on lower lumber prices and strong housing demand, even as the housing sector continues to grapple with building material supply chain issues and labor challenges. Ending a three-month decline, builder sentiment in the market for newly built single-family homes edged up one point to 76 in September, according to the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) released today. "Builder sentiment has been gradually cooling since the HMI hit an all-time high reading of 90 last November," said NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke. "The September data show stability as some building material cost challenges ease, particularly for softwood lumber. However, delivery times remain extended and the chronic construction labor shortage is expected to persist as the overall labor market recovers." "The single-family building market has moved off the unsustainably hot pace of construction of last fall and has reached a still hot but more stable level of activity, as reflected in the September HMI," said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. "While building material challenges persist, the rate of cost growth has eased for some products, but the job openings rate in construction is trending higher." ... The HMI index gauging current sales conditions rose one point to 82, the component measuring traffic of prospective buyers posted a two-point gain to 61 and the gauge charting sales expectations in the next six months held steady at 81. Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the Northeast fell two points to 72, the South dropped two points to 80 and the West registered a two-point decline to 83. The...
    Click Here to Read the Full Article

    Source: Calculated Risk Blog
  • 8:37 AM » Senior House Democrats concede likely scale-back of $3.5 trillion Biden spending bill
    Published Mon, Sep 20 2021 8:37 AM by Reuters
    Senior House Democrats concede likely scale-back of $3.5 trillion Biden spending bill
  • 8:04 AM » U.S. Treasury yields lower as investors look ahead to new Fed meeting
    Published Mon, Sep 20 2021 8:04 AM by CNBC
    U.S. government debt prices were higher on Monday as investors gear up for a new Federal Reserve meeting.
  • 8:04 AM » Fed to reveal new projections with investors on alert for rate liftoff timing
    Published Mon, Sep 20 2021 8:04 AM by Reuters
    U.S. Federal Reserve officials will lay bare how soon and how often they think the economy will need interest rates rises over the next three years when they release new forecasts at their policy meeting on Wednesday, with investors on alert for a faster pace of tightening.
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