Canadian Q1 and March GDP and core PCE in the U.S. will dominate the economic news of the day as markets prepare for the final trading day of May. In addition to comments from the Fed and Canadian finance ministers, markets will also be paying attention to European Central Bankers on Friday.
At 8:30 a.m. EDT, the U.S. Commerce Department will release its personal income and spending report for April. Economists are expecting personal spending to rise 0.2% month-over-month after picking up 0.4% in the previous month. Personal income is expected to rise 0.1% following March's 0.3% gain. Economists are expecting a 0.1% month-over-month gain in core PCE compared to the prior month's 0.2% rise. Annual core PCE is expected to pick up 2.1%, matching March's gain. The GDP deflater is expected to increase 3.1%, down slightly from the previous month's 3.2% rise.
Also at 8:30 a.m., Statistics Canada will release GDP figures for March and the first quarter of 2008. Economists are expecting a flat reading in month-over-month terms following February's 0.2% contraction. Annualized first-quarter GDP is expected to show a 0.4% increase following a 0.8% expansion in Q4.
Statistics Canada will also release its industrial product and raw material price indexes for April at 8:30 a.m. EDT. The consensus forecast is for a 1.0% month-over-month pick-up in IPPI following a 1.7% increase in March. RPI is expected to increase 2.8% month-over-month following March's 6.6% gain.
At 9 a.m. EDT, European Central Bank Governing Council Member Jurgen Stark will speak on 'Eurogroup, An Assessment of the First Ten Years' in Luxembourg.
At 9:45 a.m. EDT, markets will receive the Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index for May, which is expected to rise to 48.5 from the previous month's 48.3 level. Markets will also be watching for the prices paid, new orders and employment indexes, which stood at 82.9, 53.0 and 35.3 respectively.
At 10 a.m. EDT, Reuters and the University of Michigan will release the final consumer sentiment report for May. The consensus is looking for no change to the preliminary estimate of 59.5.
Also at 10 a.m., the U.S. Institute for Supply Management will release its Milwaukee manufacturing index for May, which is expected to decline to 47.0 from the previous month's 48.0 reading.
Markets will also hear from Bundesbank President Axel Weber and German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck speaking at the inauguration of Goethe University's House of Finance in Frankfurt at 10 a.m. EDT.
At 11:45 a.m. EDT, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan will speak on policy, financial markets and the economy at a forum organized by the Bank of Montreal in Montreal.
At 12:30 p.m. EDT, Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren (non-voter) will speak on the U.S. economic outlook in Boston.
At 12:45 p.m. EDT, markets will hear from Assistant Secretary for Tax Policy Eric Solomon delivering remarks on current developments in tax policy in New York.
At 2:30 p.m. EDT, Canadian Finance Minister Jim Flaherty will hold a media availability in Montreal following a meeting of regional finance ministers and Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney.
8:30 US Personal Income April Exp : +0.1% Prior: +0.3%
8:30 US Personal Spending April EXP: +0.2% Prior: +0.4%
8:30 CA Industrial Product Price (M/M) April Exp: +1.0% Prior: +1.7%
8:30 CA Gross Domestic Product (M/M) MAR Exp: 0.0% Prior: -0.2%
8:30 CA Quarterly GDP (Y/Y) 1Q Exp: +0.4% Prior: +0.8%
8:30 CA Raw Materials Price Index (M/M) April Exp: 2.8% Prior: +6.6%
8:30 US PCE Deflator (Y/Y) April Exp: +3.1% Prior: +3.2%
8:30 US PCE Core (M/M) April Exp: +0.1% Prior: +0.2%
8:30 US PCE Core (Y/Y) April Exp: +2.1% Prior: +2.1%
9:00 EU ECB's Stark Speaking in Luxembourg
9:45 US Chicago Purchasing Manager May Exp: 48.5 Prior: 48.3
10:00 US U. of Michigan Confidence May Final Exp: 59.5 Prior: 59.5
10:00 US NAPM-Milwaukee May Exp: 47 Prior: 48
11:45 US Greenspan Speaks in Montreal on Policy, Economy, Markets
12:30 US Boston Fed's Rosengren Speaks on Economic Outlook
30 - May CA Canadian Finance Ministry to Hold Press Conference in Montreal
By Erik Kevin Franco and edited by Nancy Girgis