prices reached the half-way mark in the fourth quarter of 2013, climbing back
to a level 20 percent above the trough in values reached nationwide in the
fourth quarter of 2011 but remaining 21 percent below the peak prices reached
in early 2006. The CoreLogic
Case-Shiller Indexes for the last three months of 2013 confirmed that more than
half of that appreciation occurred between the fourth quarter of 2012 and the
fourth quarter of 2013 when prices
increased by 11.3 percent nationwide.
Case-Shiller analysis paints a more restrained picture going forward. Price
appreciation over the four quarters of 2014 will be at less than half that in 2013,
slowing to 5.3 percent over the course of the year. Even this decreased rate is slightly higher
than the historic rate of 4.5 percent recorded since 1975.
"Limited construction of new homes and low
inventories of existing homes for sale contributed to the jump in prices," said
Dr. David Stiff, principal economist for CoreLogic Case-Shiller. "Developers
remain cautious about building too many new houses until they see stronger
demand in their markets."
Case-Shiller analysis covers home price trends during the fourth quarter of 2013 in more than 380
U.S. markets. Among the largest
metropolitan areas, those with populations over 950,000, the most rapid growth
was noted in Las Vegas (+26 percent) and Riverside (+24 percent) and Oakland
(+23 percent) California. The three largest metropolitan areas that experienced
no change were Oklahoma City, and Tulsa, Oklahoma and Virginia Beach, Virginia. Stiff said that new price peaks, even above
2006 levels were reached in several metro areas including Houston, Dallas,
Denver, Honolulu, and Pittsburgh.
Of the largest metropolitan areas Case-Shiller
projects the greatest year-over-year gains through the end of 2014 for Tucson, (+11
percent), Rochester, New York (+9 percent) and Hartford (+9 percent). The largest
metropolitan areas with the smallest projected gains are Nashville (+2 percent),
Sacramento (+2 percent) and Warren, Michigan (+2 percent).
"For the remainder of 2014, investor demand and
sales of foreclosed properties should drop off quickly. Traditional buyers are
returning slowly to the market, but cannot replace demand from investors who led
the market in recent years,"
Dr. Stiff said.