The country is on the verge of a
double-dip in housing prices according to new survey from MacroMarkets
LLC. The financial technology company
asked a panel of 111 economists, real estate experts, investment and market
strategists to project the path of housing prices over the next five years
based on the S&P/Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index.
Robert Shiller, MacroMarket's
cofounder and chief economist said panelists' sentiments regarding the housing
market continue to deteriorate.
"Now they are expecting only a weak recovery and even that is not
until 2013." Shiller blamed the
outlook on market fundamentals; high unemployment, high inventory, and
continuing foreclosures and tight credit.
Terry Loebs, MacroMarkets managing
director said that overall, the March expectations data are the most
pessimistic collected to date. After the
weak performance in the fourth quarter of 2010, home prices nationally are only
1 percent above what would be a new post-housing crash low. "Many more experts are now projecting a
double-dip after witnessing the double-dead cat bounce that came in the wake of
expired government stimulus programs," Loebs said.

The Case-Shiller Index peaked at
around 180 in late 2005 before dropping to the mid 120s in the first quarter of
2009. Since then it has risen slightly twice
and dropped again each time. It tested
the 2009 low once in 2010 and is now below even that mark. Loebs said that in December only 15 percent
of the panelists were predicting a new low but now 50 percent see a double dip
this year and "not a single panelist expects national home prices to
recover to the pre-bubble trend in the coming five years."
The consensus of the panel is that
prices by the fourth quarter of 2011 will have declined 1.38 percent
year-over-year. By the same point in
2012 there will be a slight 1.26 improvement, but then the panel sees things
picking up with a 2.72 percent increase in 2013, 3.15 percent in 2014 and 3.42
percent in 2015. The average expectation
for a cumulative increase over the next five years is projected at 9.64
percent.

The panelists displayed little real
consensus. A handful sees an incredibly
bleak future for housing. Eight project declining
prices throughout the five year period with a cumulative negative change over
five years in the high teens. Others see
a return to real price growth with 5, 7, even 10 percent single year appreciation
in the out years. Shiller said, "The
differences of opinion are interesting but unsurprising in light of continuing
and unprecedented fallout from the historic bubble."