What appears at first glance to be some good news on the foreclosure front may merely indicate a lull that is preceding new surge of activity.
RealtyTrac, the Irvine California company that tracks such matters, reports that there was a 10 percent decline in foreclosure activity during January compared to the previous month. However, the rate at which default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions were reported during the month was still 15 percent above the level one year earlier. (MND comment: It is worth noting that all foreclosure activity on behalf of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae was suspended from November 26, 2008 until January 9, 2009.)
James J. Saccacio, chief executive officer of RealtyTrac said "January foreclosure numbers are exhibiting a pattern very similar to a year ago: a double-digit percentage jump in December foreclosure activity followed by a 10 percent drop in January. If history repeats itself we will see a surge in the numbers over the next few months as lenders foreclose on delinquent loans where neither the existing loan modification programs or the new short sale and deed-in-lieu of foreclosure alternatives works."
RealtyTrac bases its foreclosure estimates on the number of default notices, scheduled auctions, and bank repossessions filed during the month. 317,716 properties were the subject of such filings during January; this is one in every 409 U.S. housing units.
All of the filings covered showed the same pattern of falling off of December figures but tracking higher for the year. Real estate owned (REO) activity was down 5 percent from December but up 31 percent from January 2009; default notices were 12 percent lower than the month before and 4 percent higher for the year; auctions were down 11 percent from December but 15 percent higher than in January 2009.
Even though foreclosure activity declined 18 percent from a year earlier, Nevada still had the highest foreclosure rate in the country for the 37th consecutive month. One in every 95 houses in the state had some type of a filing recorded during January. This is four times the national average.
Arizona's foreclosure activity was up 4.5 percent from December filings and a staggering 44.5 percent year over year with one in every 129 homes in Arizona affected.
California and Florida both saw big drops in foreclosure activity during the month and registered nearly identical activity rates with one in every 187 houses receiving a filing in each of the two states. Activity in California dropped 11 percent from December to January and was also down 6.5 percent from January to January while Florida was down 15 percent month over month but up 15.5 percent for the year.
Utah is the final state ranking in the top five with one in every 231 housing units receiving a foreclosure notice. Still, this was a decrease of almost 12 percent compared to December.
In terms of actual rather than relative numbers of homes receiving filings, California, Florida, Arizona, Illinois, Michigan, and Texas together accounted for 60 percent of all foreclosure activity reported. The first three states on the list represented 44 percent of the national total.
Phoenix Arizona was the only metropolitan area posting an increase in foreclosure activity in January, up 4 percent to one of every 102 housing units. Las Vegas had the highest rate among cities with one in every 82 units affected, but this was 21 percent lower than activity reported one year ago.
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