Loan Officer Survey: Credit Standards Tighter, Consumer Demand Falling, Deliquencies Expected to Rise
Bankers
responding to the January 2010 Federal Reserve Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey on Bank
Lending Practices indicated that residential loan standards are still contracting. The report also states that consumer demand for mortgage loans continues to decline.
The survey,
released on Monday, addresses changes in loan supply and demand over the last
three months. It also included three
sets of special questions about delinquency rates of loans made to large and
middle market firms, changes in bank policies about commercial real estate
(CRE) loans over the past year, and a third set of questions about the banks' outlook
over the coming year for the credit quality of a number of categories of loans.
55 domestic banks and 23 U.S. branches and agencies of foreign banks responded
to the questionnaire.
Banks
continued to tighten standards on residential lending, especially on
nontraditional residential real estate loans. 17 percent of banks that make
residential loans reported they had tightened standards on prime real estate
loans and 30 percent reported such tightening of non-traditional loans.

In addition, a moderate net fraction of banks reported weaker demand
from prime borrowers for residential real estate loans. Demand from
customers seeking nontraditional mortgages also weakened further over
the survey period. Only a small net fraction of banks reported having
tightened standards on revolving home equity lines of credit over the
past three months, but a large net fraction of banks continued to report lower demand for such loans.

Demand
for both businesses and households across all major categories of loans
weakened on net over the past three months. 64 percent of respondents reported
that business inquiries about new or increased credit had stayed about the same
over the last three months while 13 percent reported an increase and 25 percent
a decrease.
A large
proportion of respondents reported that their banks were relatively unchanged
in their approach to consumer lending.
Over 80 percent said that their banks policies were unchanged when it
came to approving applications for installment, consumer, and credit card
loans. However, a substantial net
fraction of banks said they had reduced credit limits on credit cards and had
become less likely to issue cards to customers who do not meet credit scoring thresholds.
Respondents to the October 2009 survey
had indicated that they would tighten many of their credit card policies as a
reaction to passage of the Credit CARD Act.
Loan
terms were seen as being a little more in flux but the net percentages of
respondents who tightened those requirements was lower than in the previous
quarter. When considering lending to large firms - those with annual sales of
$50 million or more - 76 percent reported there had been no change in the
maximum credit lines, 16 percent reported a tightening in the maximums and 7
percent said those terms had eased. Maximum maturity dates were unchanged in 83
percent of reports. Only 64 percent of respondents reported no change in the
cost of credit lines while over 23 percent reported that these standards had
tightened somewhat or considerably. Close to 26 percent reported that the spread
charged to commercial borrowers had widened over the last three months compared
to 58 percent that reported it unchanged. About 10 percent reported they had
tightened collateral requirements, the remainder reported no change. Figures
for lending to smaller companies varied only slightly from those reported for
large firms.
Banks
were also asked a special set of questions about asset quality. In contrast to
responses in earlier surveys, substantially fewer respondents reported that
they expected widespread deterioration in credit quality in the coming year. On
the household side, a moderate net fraction of banks indicated that the
credit quality of their prime residential mortgages and home equity
loans would likely deteriorate further in 2010. However, banks expect
portfolios of most other types of consumer and residential real estate
loans to experience little further deterioration in credit quality this
year—indeed, a moderate net share of banks expect some improvement in
credit quality in other consumer loans.