Wed, Dec 14 2022, 5:20 PM
Fed Threads Needle With Unfriendly Dots Balanced by Peaceful Powell
As expected, the market's initial focus ...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 2:00 PM
Recent indicators point to modest growth in spending and production. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remain...
Wed, Dec 14 2022, 12:17 PM
It's Fed day and a 0.50% hike is a foregone conclusion. Markets have fully priced that in and multiple Fed speeches--including Powell 2 weeks ago--ha...
Tue, Dec 13 2022, 4:28 PM
CPI Reaction Lives Up To The Hype. Fed on Deck
On most any other day, if MBS are going out the door with a 5...
Tue, Dec 13 2022, 10:01 AM
You can go back and research decades of Consumer Price Index reports to compare the size of the market movement relative to the size of the beat/miss ...
Mon, Dec 12 2022, 3:51 PM
Bonds Give up Gains After Bumpy Auctions
Amid and absence of any relevant economic data, bonds were forced t...
Mon, Dec 12 2022, 12:17 PM
It's been more than a month since the last CPI report sent mortgage rates lower at the fastest single-day pace on record. Since then, apart from one ...
Fri, Dec 9 2022, 5:15 PM
Retreat Into Recent Rate Range Continues
The opening commentary is surprisingly similar to the closing comme...
Fri, Dec 9 2022, 11:29 AM
We came into Friday expecting the Producer Price Index data to carry more market movement potential than normal. Two reasons for this: A) inflation d...
Thu, Dec 8 2022, 3:59 PM
Uneventful Trading Day Despite Moderate Weakness
Today had the feel of a holiday trading day in the bond mar...
Thu, Dec 8 2022, 12:14 PM
As we watched yesterday's rally continue to extend into the afternoon without any compelling motivation, it began to seem slightly overdone--especiall...
Wed, Dec 7 2022, 4:22 PM
Mini Snowball Rally on Data, Technicals, and Lack of Supply
There are several ways to approach today's rally...
Wed, Dec 7 2022, 9:50 AM
We never like to view technical levels or technical analysis as having any reliable predictive value about the future. It's more of a framework that ...
Tue, Dec 6 2022, 4:39 PM
Mystery Rally Gets Bonds Back in The Green
Both Tuesday and Wednesday are effectively free from market-movin...
Tue, Dec 6 2022, 12:23 PM
Today's trading session is effectively data-free in the US with the never-market-moving International Trade report the only data on the calendar. Bon...
Mon, Dec 5 2022, 3:22 PM
Weaker Start on Data and Fed Anxiety
Bonds got off to a weaker start in the new week on a variety of factors...
Mon, Dec 5 2022, 11:21 AM
The importance of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) cannot be overstated for most of 2022. That's doubly true in November and December. The Nov 10th it...
Fri, Dec 2 2022, 4:12 PM
Bonds Ultimately Shrug Off Stronger Jobs Data
Today saw a fairly impressive round trip for rates following t...
Fri, Dec 2 2022, 12:30 PM
Change has been in the air since the November 10th CPI data. That single report did more than any other event to raise hopes for a big picture shift ...
Thu, Dec 1 2022, 3:15 PM
Bonds Look Like They're Expecting Good News
We came into the day with a disclaimer about modest losses still...
Wed, Nov 30 2022, 4:25 PM
Powell Shows Up With Holiday Cheer For Bonds
While it's not technically a holiday week, we are in the midst ...
Wed, Nov 30 2022, 1:13 PM
The combination of this morning's ADP employment data and the preliminary GDP revision pushed yields slightly higher after a flat overnight session. ...
Tue, Nov 29 2022, 4:33 PM
Issuance Sets The Tone and Keeps Bonds Range-Bound
Bonds have now spent more than 2 weeks locked inside a ve...
Tue, Nov 29 2022, 9:49 AM
Corporate debt issuance is a net negative for bonds. There was a lull in issuance heading into Thanksgiving. With traders snapping out of holiday mo...
Mon, Nov 28 2022, 12:20 PM
Bonds were effectively closed for a 4-day weekend starting with Thanksgiving last Thursday. True, Friday was technically open for half a day, but vol...
Fri, Nov 25 2022, 9:11 AM
MBS live will be operating in "holiday light" mode today. The weekly newsletter is on holiday but will be back next week. Commentary and alerts will...
Wed, Nov 23 2022, 3:26 PM
Rates Recover Nicely After Fed Minutes
Today was the only day of the holiday-shortened week with any meaning...
Wed, Nov 23 2022, 11:04 AM
We'd be the first to advocate taking Thanksgiving week trading momentum with a grain of salt, so this morning's discussion is less about drawing conne...
Tue, Nov 22 2022, 3:25 PM
Light Participation Limits MBS Gains as Treasuries Shrug Off Weak Auction
Today's 7yr Treasury auction was o...
Tue, Nov 22 2022, 10:38 AM
Welcome to the bond market on Thanksgiving week in a year with the fastest rate spike in 4 decades, driven by inflation. This year, it just so happen...
Mon, Nov 21 2022, 3:41 PM
Random, Inconsequential Volatility Driven by Holiday Week Trading Conditions
No sooner did we finish reading...
Mon, Nov 21 2022, 9:51 AM
Whereas humans might feel sleepy after a big holiday meal, the bond market often feels that way for the entire holiday week. Thanksgiving week is one...
Fri, Nov 18 2022, 3:59 PM
Modest Losses But Uneventful in The Bigger Picture
'Tis the season for the bond market to enter holiday trad...
Fri, Nov 18 2022, 11:37 AM
One unfortunate side effect of the general hyperfocus on inflation as the biggest issue facing markets is that bonds have been able to bounce from one...
Thu, Nov 17 2022, 4:10 PM
Weaker Today, But Still in Solid Territory Despite Fed Push-Back
Bonds lost a bit of ground overnight and th...
Thu, Nov 17 2022, 10:15 AM
After spending the first 3 days of the week attempting to moderately extend the gains, bonds are finding some resistance today. Comments from St. Lou...
Wed, Nov 16 2022, 3:43 PM
Decent Rally Despite Strong Retail Sales and Hawkish Fed Speakers
It was an interesting day for the bond mar...
Wed, Nov 16 2022, 11:43 AM
The day is getting off to an interesting start as stronger Retail Sales data initially pushed yields higher. That weakness lasted for less than half ...
Tue, Nov 15 2022, 3:57 PM
1 Step Back and 1 Step Forward So Far This Week
Bonds made solid gains overnight, largely following a rally ...
Tue, Nov 15 2022, 11:06 AM
Today kicks off with the Producer Price Index painting a similar picture to last week's CPI data. Specifically, monthly wholesale inflation dropped 0...
Mon, Nov 14 2022, 4:14 PM
The Best Half Point MBS Sell-Off
On probably any other day, a half point sell-off in MBS would be bad new...
Mon, Nov 14 2022, 12:02 PM
In case you missed Thursday's trading session last week, it was epic--one of the biggest single-day rallies on record and the biggest drop in mortgage...
Thu, Nov 10 2022, 5:19 PM
Biggest Rally in Over a Decade After CPI Overdelivers
You may have been tired of hearing just how important ...
Thu, Nov 10 2022, 10:58 AM
This morning's trading action offers resounding validation of the market's hyperfocus on this particular CPI report. In a month where the average pri...
Wed, Nov 9 2022, 11:41 AM
Heading into the week, the absence of tradable data on 3 out of the 4 days was readily apparent. Bonds were left at the mercy of tradeflows (all the ...
Tue, Nov 8 2022, 4:19 PM
Super Sideways After Solid Gains, But Nothing Matters Until Thursday
Today's news cycle was dominated by pol...
Tue, Nov 8 2022, 12:10 PM
To be sure, the bond market absolutely CAN experience significant volatility in response to election outcomes, but the extent of that volatility depen...
Mon, Nov 7 2022, 4:29 PM
MBS Outperform as Treasuries Fret Over Issuance
As Thursday's CPI looms on the horizon as this week's defini...
Mon, Nov 7 2022, 11:47 AM
With essentially nothing on the economic calendar on Monday, the most notable headline for the bond market has been the announcement of at least 13 ne...
Fri, Nov 4 2022, 4:13 PM
Ho Hum NFP Friday; MBS Outperform; 50 is The New 75
After being steadily crushed to the most inverted levels...
MBS Market Alerts
