Fri, Jan 10 2025, 3:48 PM
Sizeable, Straightforward Selling Spree
Today's jobs report was much stronger than expected and there were n...
Fri, Jan 10 2025, 10:16 AM
The morning trading is as straightforward as it is unpleasant. Nonfarm payrolls crushed expectations (256k vs 160k f'cast) and the unemployment rate ...
Thu, Jan 9 2025, 2:04 PM
No Data, No Volatility
Bonds were only open for half the day due to the national day of mourning for Jimmy C...
Thu, Jan 9 2025, 11:03 AM
Unless something incredibly interesting happens in the next 3 hours, this morning's commentary will likely be the end-of-day commentary as well. Due ...
Wed, Jan 8 2025, 3:29 PM
Some Volatility But Broadly Sideways
Markets seemingly had a lot to get through today between economic data,...
Wed, Jan 8 2025, 9:58 AM
Jobless claims data is normally a Thursday affair, but Federal economic data is not being released tomorrow due to the Jimmy Carter Day of Mourning (m...
Tue, Jan 7 2025, 4:21 PM
Orderly Move to Highest Yields in 8 Months
Bonds reacted logically to this morning's econ data at 10am. ISM...
Tue, Jan 7 2025, 11:54 AM
High hopes and crossed fingers may help one's outlook in advance of key economic data, but they are powerless once the data comes out. In today's cas...
Mon, Jan 6 2025, 4:12 PM
Small Scale Volatility as Bonds Wait For Jobs Report
Bonds lost ground this morning despite a weaker S&P PMI...
Mon, Jan 6 2025, 10:31 AM
Treasuries made modest gains in overseas trading, but yields are heading higher during domestic hours. There are two things working against us this m...
Fri, Jan 3 2025, 5:29 PM
Holidays Came and Went Without any Bond Market Fanfare
2 weeks ago today, we assumed the bond market would l...
Fri, Jan 3 2025, 12:24 PM
Today's ISM Manufacturing report was the only top tier economic data this week. While we wouldn't say it was "strong" by any means, it wasn't weak ei...
Thu, Jan 2 2025, 4:38 PM
Uneventful Start to 2025
Bonds began the day in moderately stronger territory before losing ground after the...
Thu, Jan 2 2025, 10:11 AM
Bonds were steadily stronger overnight, both in Asia and Europe. 10yr yields and MBS had both fully erased Tuesday's losses within the first 30 minut...
Tue, Dec 31 2024, 2:20 PM
Year-End Trading. No Big Deal
Bonds started stronger but lost ground quickly and inexplicably starting aroun...
Tue, Dec 31 2024, 10:01 AM
The day begins with MBS in slightly weaker territory while Treasuries are slightly stronger. The discrepancy isn't really big enough to merit any urg...
Mon, Dec 30 2024, 3:56 PM
Feel Free to Enjoy The Rally, But Don't Read Too Much Into It
Bonds improved somewhat significantly in overn...
Mon, Dec 30 2024, 10:49 AM
Stop the presses! MBS are up almost 3/8ths of a point in early trading and 10yr yields have surged lower by 8bps. This is a massive and miraculous r...
Fri, Dec 27 2024, 4:57 PM
Weaker Afternoon, But Still Uneventful
Bonds began the day in decent shape by pushing back against weakness ...
Fri, Dec 27 2024, 9:31 AM
Not that any of this week's trading activity matters in the bigger picture, but things have been reasonably resilient after Monday's selling. Tuesday...
Thu, Dec 26 2024, 4:32 PM
Friendly Reversal Thanks to 7yr Treasury Auction
The day began as so many days over the past few months with...
Thu, Dec 26 2024, 9:15 AM
Bonds are back in the office for a few days, at least in the sense that there are no holiday scheduled changes, and they've wasted no time getting rig...
Tue, Dec 24 2024, 10:11 AM
Bonds are selling off for no obvious reasons for however many days in a row it's been (at least 2 unless you count last Thursday). Episodes like this ...
Mon, Dec 23 2024, 4:01 PM
Steady Selling in Bonds. 'Tis The Season?
Bonds began the day in weaker territory and continued to sell off ...
Mon, Dec 23 2024, 12:30 PM
The most interesting analysis we can offer today is a simple reminder that the word "idiosyncrasy" has an "S" at the end instead of the "C" that we're...
Fri, Dec 20 2024, 4:44 PM
Not as Bad as it Could Have Been
After Wednesday's Fed-driven sell-off, it was unlikely if not impossible th...
Fri, Dec 20 2024, 9:54 AM
This week's biggest to-do in terms of economic reports was this morning's PCE inflation data. The fact that the Fed just said it was shifting its pri...
Thu, Dec 19 2024, 4:30 PM
Fairly Uneventful Follow-Up to Fed Day
Considering everything that transpired yesterday, today's follow-up w...
Thu, Dec 19 2024, 10:29 AM
The takeaway from yesterday's Fed announcement was twofold. First, the Fed is much closer to being done cutting rates than it anticipated in Septembe...
Wed, Dec 18 2024, 5:07 PM
Dots and Powell Were Much Less Friendly Than Markets Expected
We knew the bond market was expecting a hawkis...
Wed, Dec 18 2024, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Since earlier in the year, labor market conditions have gene...
Wed, Dec 18 2024, 11:31 AM
Bonds were moderately weaker overnight but have been pushing back in fits and starts in early trading. This has been a more uneven process for MBS as...
Tue, Dec 17 2024, 3:58 PM
Calm and Resilient as Bonds Wait For Powell and The Dot Plot
Whereas last week saw the bond market continue ...
Tue, Dec 17 2024, 11:05 AM
Yesterday, it was S&P Global PMI data. Today it's Retail Sales. Both were stronger than expected. Both failed to cause any lasting weakness in bond...
Mon, Dec 16 2024, 4:22 PM
Bonds Hold Ground Despite Unfriendly Econ Data
If there was a prime directive for the bond market last week,...
Mon, Dec 16 2024, 12:26 PM
Bonds were modestly stronger in the overnight session, and although domestic traders quickly erased the gains in the AM hours, the selling is currentl...
Fri, Dec 13 2024, 4:55 PM
Why So Much Selling in Bonds?
Without a doubt, it's been a frustrating and puzzling week for the bond market...
Fri, Dec 13 2024, 11:42 AM
Bonds can't seem to catch a break this week. Data hasn't necessarily been unfriendly either with both CPI and PPI hitting forecasts at the core month...
Thu, Dec 12 2024, 4:36 PM
Mediocre Data Has Done Nothing to Help Bonds
Granted, this week's slate of economic data isn't on quite the ...
Thu, Dec 12 2024, 10:28 AM
This morning's Producer Price Index (PPI) came in hotter than expected in year-over-year terms (3.4 vs 3.2 at the core level). Traders were mostly abl...
Wed, Dec 11 2024, 4:16 PM
Why Bonds Sold Off After a Decent AM Rally
It was a day for "explanations" in the bond market with the morni...
Wed, Dec 11 2024, 10:52 AM
Today's headline and core CPI readings were both perfectly in line with forecasts. After the data came out, bonds rallied and Fed Funds Futures moved...
Tue, Dec 10 2024, 4:13 PM
Ready For Anything After Pre-CPI Consolidation
Bonds were arguably consolidating ahead of last Friday's jobs...
Tue, Dec 10 2024, 10:40 AM
Yesterday's closing commentary also noted "inconsequential weakness," and there's not really a better way to refer to this morning's modest losses. O...
Mon, Dec 9 2024, 5:02 PM
Inconsequential Weakness
Bonds lost a moderate amount of ground on Monday with 10yr yields moving back above...
Mon, Dec 9 2024, 10:38 AM
Up until last Friday, 10yr yields closed at 4.17% for 5 days in a row. While that's technically "resistance," we're not complaining considering that's...
Fri, Dec 6 2024, 4:57 PM
Solid Conclusion to a Solid Week. Has The Tide Turned?
After Thanksgiving week introduced a potential breako...
Fri, Dec 6 2024, 9:52 AM
We all know that today's jobs report is the most important economic data on an given month. We also know that a higher payroll count tends to be bad f...
Thu, Dec 5 2024, 4:10 PM
Calm Week So Far, But All Bets Are Off After Jobs Report
Bonds were slightly weaker overnight and did just a...
Thu, Dec 5 2024, 8:46 AM
Jobless Claims
224k vs 215k f'cast, 213k prev
Continued Claims
1871k vs 1910k f'cast, 1896k prev
At first glance, the 224k figure...
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