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Reasons For Both Hope and Caution
Today's 10yr auction was average, but that performance followed a mid-day bond rally. In other words, the auction likely would have been stronger if not for that rally. On one hand, it's encouraging to continue holding ground without a new, abrupt sell-off so far this week. On the other hand, we really need to see a stronger commitment to rally before getting too hopeful.
Econ Data / Events
Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm
Core CPI (y/y) 1.3 vs 1.4 f'cast, 1.4 prev
Market Movement Recap
08:45 AM Weaker overnight, with Treasuries following European yields higher. Nice little jolt of gains after the weaker CPI data, but that's mostly unwound now. 10yr yields up 2.3bps at 1.55% and 2.5 UMBS down just over an eighth at 103-06 (103.19).
10:35 AM MBS have been mostly flat all morning while Treasuries rallied modestly into the 9:30am NYSE open. A bit of a weaker bounce since then. 2.5 coupons at lowest liquid levels of the day, down 6 ticks (.19) at 103-05 (103.16). 10yr back up to 1.550% after being as low as 1.533%
01:08 PM Decent 10yr auction. See the update for more. Intraday gains mostly holding. 10yr down 1bp at 1.52% and UMBS 2.5 within 1 tick of turning green.
03:21 PM Not bad, not stellar. Rally stalled a bit and 10yr yields backed up to roughly unchanged levels for the 3pm CME close. MBS just barely weaker on the day. Pretty uneventful considering the possibilities.
MBS Commentary
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Reasons For Both Hope and Caution
Today's 10yr auction was average, but that performance followed a mid-day bond rally. In other words, the auction likely would have been stronger if not for that ral... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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At this point, no one should be surprised to hear that mortgage rates have moved significantly higher in 2021--especially in the past few weeks. There are several reasons for this, but the easiest way to make sense of it all is to say "rates were ult... (read more)
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Housing News
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Mortgage application volume turned lower again this week after longer term rates rose again, pulling more steam out of refinancing. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of that volume, decreased 1.3 percen... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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Today I head off on a business trip to Georgia for a few days, which reminded me that yesterday’s commentary had some state facts. As expected, people took exception with Texas and West Virginia’s lake trivia. Today they can take exceptio... (read more)
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Housing News
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CoreLogic's December 2020 Loan Performance Insights report was upbeat, citing positive signs of recovery after a rocky year in which a pandemic and related job losses sent delinquency rates skyrocketing. Last year started with the lowest share of loa... (read more)
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Housing News
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Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) declined slightly in February as did four of its six components. The Index, based on a sample of answers to the company's monthly National Housing Survey, dipped 1.2 points to 76.5. It is down 16 poin... (read more)
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