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Bonds Break The Range, But Mortgage Rates Are Dragging Their Feet
The simple version of the story: mortgage rates aren't moving lower nearly as quickly as the bond market suggests they should be. There are some very good reasons for that. Today's video discusses those as well as the lock/float implications.
Econ Data / Events
20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th)
US Q2 GDP -32.9 vs -34.1 f'cast , -5.0 prev
Jobless Claims 1.434m vs 1.450m f'cast , 1.422m prev
Continued Claims 17.018m vs 16.2m f'cast , 16.151m prev
Market Movement Recap
08:37 AM No major reaction to GDP/Claims. This follows general strength in the overnight session leaving 10yr yields a total of 2.6bps lower on the day at .551. UMBS 2.0s are an eighth of a point higher on the day at 103-12 (103.375).
11:49 AM Little-changed after the morning's modest rally, but potentially seeing resistance in Treasuries at .54%. UMBS 2.0 is hitting resistance at 103-14 (103.44). Stocks are well off their lows now, but still down on the day.
03:47 PM Bonds have held ground quite well despite a relatively big recovery in stocks. 10yr yields remain near lows of day and MBS near highs--little changed from the last update.
MBS Commentary
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Bonds Break The Range, But Mortgage Rates Are Dragging Their Feet
The simple version of the story: mortgage rates aren't moving lower nearly as quickly as the bond market suggests they should be. There ... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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Mortgage rates improved nicely overnight. The average lender's morning rates were very close to the lowest levels ever . This was a distinct possibility based on yesterday afternoon's bond market movement. Mortgage rates are most directly influenced ... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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Lenders are “tonning it,” as indicated by Fannie Mae’s net income of $2.5 billion for the second quarter of 2020, compared with net income of $461 million for the first quarter of 2020. But with most of us hunkered down, the economy... (read more)
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Housing News
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Pending home sales soared again in June, although the liftoff was relatively shallow compared to the 43 percent increase in May. The National Association of Realtors'® (NAR's) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI). The index, a forward-looking indicato... (read more)
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Housing News
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Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 14.2 percent in June compared to a 5.5 percent gain in May. The portfolio balance at the end of the period was $2.46 trillion compared to $2.407 trill... (read more)
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Housing News
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Mortgage application volume declined for the first time in four weeks during the week ended July 24. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said is Market Composite Index, a measure of that volume, was down 0.8 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis ... (read more)
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