Delivered to over
70,000+ industry professionals
each day, the Daily Newsletter is the
definitive recap of the day's most
relevant mortgage and real estate news and data. View the latest Newsletter below.
View our most recent newsletter below, or use the date selector to view past newsletters.
MBS Struggle to Hold Gains, But Rates Aren't Scared Yet
Bonds were mixed today with both MBS and Treasuries gaining ground (and then losing slightly less ground) at varying paces. Treasuries outperformed, but that's not a huge surprise on a rally day. Both have bigger fish to fry in the days ahead with plenty of potential volatility from the election, Fed announcement, and NFP. Stakes are higher for Treasuries compared to MBS, and MUCH higher compared to mortgage rates (which have been extremely well insulated by most of the recent bond market volatility due to historically wide lender margins). Still, if there's one market catalyst in the near term that could get things moving, it would be the election.
Econ Data / Events
20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th)
ISM Manufacturing 59.3 vs 55.8 f'cas t, 55.4 prev
Market Movement Recap
09:13 AM Bonds opened stronger in Asia, lost some ground on stronger data in Europe, and have been moving into stronger territory ever since. Both stocks and bonds are doing better as traders cautiously jump back into long positions for the new month. 10yr yields down 3+ bps to .84% and 2.0 UMBS up 6 ticks (.19) at 103-10 (103.31).
12:55 PM Bonds are off their best levels, but not panicking. The 1.5 UMBS coupon is the only noticeable laggard. There is no overt underlying motivation for the move apart from the fact that 1.5 coupons are simply going to march to their own beat from time to time as they continue to build liquidity.
03:00 PM UMBS 2.0 coupons joined in the selling trend and hit lows just before 2pm. They haven't moved much since then, but are still up 3 ticks (0.09) on the day. 10yr yields are at their highest levels since this morning, now down only 2.35bps on the day at .85%. Very calm and narrow trading day relative to the volatility seen at the end of last week.
MBS Commentary
|
|
MBS Struggle to Hold Gains, But Rates Aren't Scared Yet
Bonds were mixed today with both MBS and Treasuries gaining ground (and then losing slightly less ground) at varying paces. Treasuries outperform... (read more)
|
|
Rob Chrisman
|
|
Some would say that the year is either flying by, others would suggest it is slowly bumping along the bottom. Either way, here we are in November, and turkey farmers and butchers are wondering how to adapt their products to proposed smaller family ga... (read more)
|
|
Mortgage Rate Watch
|
|
The 2016 election won't soon be forgotten in the mortgage or bond markets. Many of the predictions were dead wrong when it came to how interest rates would react to a Trump victory, and the reason ended up being very simple in hindsight. Are there an... (read more)
|
|
Housing News
|
|
Both GSEs reported financial results for the third quarter of 2020 that were significantly higher than both their Q2 2020 and their 2019 numbers . Fannie Mae's net and its comprehensive incomes were $4.2 billion and Freddie Mac's net and comprehensiv... (read more)
|
|
Housing News
|
|
The number of loans in COVID-19 related forbearance plans rose during the past week, driven by both an increase in new plans and significantly fewer borrowers exiting from the program. Black Knight said its weekly survey found a net increase of 31,00... (read more)
|
|
Housing News
|
|
Hidden in the Q3 report on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday, which showed a rebound of 33.1 percent from the 31.4 percent loss in Q2 was news of some real growth. Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders poin... (read more)
|
|
|
|
|