Bonds Rally on Month-End Trading and Friendly Inflation Data Bonds began the day in unchanged territory and made cautious gains after reasonably friendly inflation data.  PCE was a bigger factor than the Consumer Sentiment inflation expectations, but both contributed.  Given our position on the calendar, we should also consider the impact of month/quarter-end positioning. It would help account for some of this week's resilience in US bond markets relative to the suggestion of equities markets or EU bonds.   Econ Data / Events Core PCE Inflation y/y 4.6 vs 4.7 f'cast, 4.7 prev Chicago PMI 43.8 vs 43.4 f'cast, 43.6 prev Consumer Sentiment 62.0 vs 63.2 f'cast, 63.4 prev 1yr inflation expectations 3.6 vs 3.8 prev 5yr inflation expectations 2.9 vs 2.8 prev Market Movement Recap 09:31 AM Roughly unchanged overnight.  Moderately stronger after inflation data.  10yr down 3bps at 3.517.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06). 01:10 PM Slow, steady gains all day.  Some month-end bond buying is likely contributing.  MBS up more than an eighth.  10yr down 4bps at 3.507 03:20 PM Additional gains before and after the 3pm CME close.  10yr down 6bps at 3.486.  MBS up a quarter point.

March 31, 2023 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary Bonds Rally on Month-End Trading and Friendly Inflation Data Bonds Rally on Month-End Trading and Friendly Inflation Data Bonds began the day in unchanged territory and made cautious gains after reasonably friendly inflation data.  PCE was a bigger factor than the... (read more) Rob Chrisman Non-QM, Correspondent, Outsourcing, Income Verification Tools; Third Party Updates; $31 million Warehouse Settlement “My landlord told me that she would like to have a chat with me about the house's sky-high heating bills this winter. I told her, ‘Sure thing, whenever you want. My door is always open.’” A key selling point for originators, in talking to potential c... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.57% -0.02% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.57% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.99% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.02% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 5.94% -0.01 0.00 5/1 ARM 6.60% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.10% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 3/31 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.99% -0.01% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.32% -0.10 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.56% -0.12 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 3/30 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.45% -0.03 0.62 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.18 0.57 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.27% -0.03 0.54 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 3/29 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.70 +0.27 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.0 99.70 +0.27 UMBS 5.5 101.02 +0.23 GNMA 5.0 100.08 +0.23 GNMA 5.5 101.14 +0.22 Pricing as of: 4/2 4:30AM EST 10 Year US Treasury 3.4710 -0.0760 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 4.038 -0.084 5 YR Treasury 3.584 -0.096 7 YR Treasury 3.541 -0.079 10 YR Treasury 3.471 -0.076 30 YR Treasury 3.651 -0.079 Pricing as of: 4/2 4:30AM EST Latest Video Fed's Williams: Banking system stresses likely to result in tightening cred... Key Fed inflation gauge rose 0.3% in February The Fed will likely overtighten, says Odyssey's Jason Snipe Bank crisis seems over in the short term, says Wells Fargo's Mike Mayo Around the Web CNBC Key Fed inflation gauge rose 0.3% in February, less than expected fhfa FHFA Announces Enhanced Payment Deferral Policies for Borrowers Facing Financial Hardship Calculated Risk Blog Freddie Mac House Price Index Declines for 8th Consecutive Month in February CNBC More home sellers are sitting out of the spring housing market Yahoo! Finance Wells Fargo to pay $97 mln for sanctions compliance failures Calculated Risk Blog Personal Income increased 0.3% in February; Spending increased 0.2% CNBC San Francisco Fed leader Daly likely not a major player in SVB saga, officials say CNBC More home sellers are sitting out of the spring housing market Wall Street Journal Fed, Treasury Fine Wells Fargo for Sanctions Violations CNBC Treasury yields rise as investors await key inflation data CNBC 'Nationalizing bond markets' left central banks unprepared for inflation, top HSBC economist says Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 6.3% Compared to Same Week in 2019 CNBC Euro zone price rises cool significantly in March, but core inflation posts small uptick

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