Mon, Sep 25 2023, 4:21 PM
The average lender was already very close to multi-decade highs for 30yr fixed mortgage rates last Thursday afternoon, but a modest recovery on Friday...
Mon, Sep 25 2023, 4:10 PM
Sell Now and Wait For Something to Convince You to Buy
Bonds began the week with another move to long-term y...
Mon, Sep 25 2023, 12:04 PM
We continue to anticipate a broadly sideways trend this week although that expectations is being put to the test in early trading. Yields in the long...
Fri, Sep 22 2023, 5:48 PM
Mortgage rates actually recovered a bit on Friday as the underlying bond market experienced a modest correction after spiking to the weakest levels in...
Fri, Sep 22 2023, 3:59 PM
Waiting For October
It seems like September only just arrived, but our sights are already set on October as ...
Fri, Sep 22 2023, 12:17 PM
In a rather classic pattern, a hawkish read on the Fed gave way to international selling on Thursday. From there, a token correction was slightly mor...
Thu, Sep 21 2023, 4:09 PM
Rates moved only moderately higher on Wednesday after the Fed rocked the bond market with its updated rate forecasts. To reiterate yesterday's analys...
Thu, Sep 21 2023, 4:07 PM
New Yield Highs After Post-Fed Follow-Through and Econ Data
Any time the market goes to sleep on a Fed day i...
Thu, Sep 21 2023, 12:27 PM
Wednesday was a confirmation of a hawkish Fed that won't care about the economy until it sees actual damage, and even then, only if that damage coinci...
Wed, Sep 20 2023, 4:50 PM
The Fed did not hike its policy rate today, but it did release updated forecasts that showed the average Fed member expects rates to be half a percent...
Wed, Sep 20 2023, 4:43 PM
Higher For Longer
Today's Fed announcement was largely as expected: no rate hike, "data dependent," and "hig...
Wed, Sep 20 2023, 2:01 PM
Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a moderate solid pace. Job gains have been robust slowed in recent month...
Wed, Sep 20 2023, 11:53 AM
Learning how to make a big deal out of every Fed day is a requirement for passing the market commentary test. But the often-overlooked extra credit c...
Tue, Sep 19 2023, 4:51 PM
The FOMC (Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee) is what most people are referring to when they say "the Fed." This is the group that meets 8 times ...
Tue, Sep 19 2023, 4:30 PM
Bonds Get Pre-Fed Jitters After a Mostly Flat Day
Bonds began the day in moderately weaker territory, mostly...
Tue, Sep 19 2023, 10:42 AM
Arrr, me hearties! Last week, there be a mighty surge towards them long-term highs in the Treasury yields. But alas! With no bounty of econ data to st...
Mon, Sep 18 2023, 4:11 PM
Mortgage rates began the day in slightly higher territory, but recovered after lenders offered mid-day price improvements. These sorts of mid-day cha...
Mon, Sep 18 2023, 4:08 PM
Uneventful Monday Fits Fed Week Narrative
After last week's economic data ebbed and bonds sold-off with Euro...
Mon, Sep 18 2023, 12:49 PM
With limited data of any particular relevance ahead of this week's Fed announcement, the path of least resistance in the bond market would be for a br...
Fri, Sep 15 2023, 5:23 PM
In and of itself, today wasn't too bad for mortgage rates. Things got a bit worse, but the change from yesterday was average or slightly lower. Ther...
Fri, Sep 15 2023, 5:18 PM
Ceiling Defense!
There are two ways to look at today's weakness in the bond market. On one hand, yields did ...
Fri, Sep 15 2023, 9:56 AM
Yesterday's natural impulse for the domestic bond market would simply have been to move toward higher rates due to a raft of upbeat economic data in t...
Thu, Sep 14 2023, 4:27 PM
Whatever is bad for the economy is typically good for interest rates. That's the grim irony for the mortgage market and it's the reason you might fin...
Thu, Sep 14 2023, 4:26 PM
Europe Helps US Bonds Avoid a Bigger Data-Driven Sell-Off
In a vacuum of "data dependency," today should hav...
Thu, Sep 14 2023, 12:13 PM
If you had to guess at what this morning's economic data would have done to the bond market ahead of time, current trading levels would almost certain...
Wed, Sep 13 2023, 4:44 PM
Today's big to-do was the release of August's Consumer Price Index (CPI), a critical inflation report with the power to significantly influence rate m...
Wed, Sep 13 2023, 4:32 PM
What's Up With The Paradoxical Post-CPI Rally?
The bond market stared down today's month-over-month core CPI...
Wed, Sep 13 2023, 12:31 PM
Core month-over-month CPI came in at 0.3% versus a 0.2% forecast. This would be bad for bonds at first glance, and indeed it was--at least initially....
Tue, Sep 12 2023, 4:59 PM
Calm Waters Again, But Tomorrow Could Rock The Boat
Much like yesterday (which saw the narrowest 10yr yield ...
Tue, Sep 12 2023, 3:20 PM
Mortgage rates started the week slightly higher for the average lender, but still below last week's highs. Most of what was lost yesterday was gained...
Tue, Sep 12 2023, 10:39 AM
Bonds may be up a bit and down a bit between now and yesterday's close, but none of it is super consequential in the bigger picture. Of course there ...
Mon, Sep 11 2023, 3:49 PM
Flattest Trading Day in 2 Years
Bonds began the overnight session in slightly weaker territory and held almo...
Mon, Sep 11 2023, 12:33 PM
At times over the past 2 years, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been the most important economic report on any given month and has had a bigger imp...
Fri, Sep 8 2023, 6:55 PM
While it's impossible to predict the future when it comes to financial markets, it's usually possible to identify the events that have higher potentia...
Fri, Sep 8 2023, 4:08 PM
Uneventful Friday. Thoughts Turning to CPI
Apart from the fact that 10yr Treasury yields are about 25bps hig...
Fri, Sep 8 2023, 11:16 AM
There weren't any huge, obvious market movers in the overnight session. The average analyst is chalking up bond gains to good old "global growth conc...
Thu, Sep 7 2023, 4:00 PM
Mortgage rates haven't had a great week so far. Monday's bank holiday meant that mortgage lenders had to account for an extra day of movement in the ...
Thu, Sep 7 2023, 3:36 PM
Stronger Bonds Despite Stronger Data
In this very "data dependent" environment, it was no surprise to see bo...
Thu, Sep 7 2023, 10:02 AM
Bonds have been waiting in line for a shift in the economic data and the rally that might result, but the ill-tempered econ data continues the refrain...
Wed, Sep 6 2023, 4:49 PM
If you're at all tuned in to economic and financial news, you've probably heard the the phrase "data dependent" more than a few times recently. It re...
Wed, Sep 6 2023, 4:21 PM
Straightforward sell-off
Bonds managed to begin the day sideways to slightly stronger, although the strength...
Wed, Sep 6 2023, 10:59 AM
It's not as if the bond market magically knew that today's non-manufacturing PMIs would come in hotter than expected, but they were clearly trading de...
Tue, Sep 5 2023, 5:00 PM
Mortgage rates are noticeably higher to start the new week for most lenders although some lenders increased their costs nearly as much on Friday. Bet...
Tue, Sep 5 2023, 4:48 PM
Issuance and Holiday Hangover Hitting Bonds
Bonds were decently weaker on the first day back after Labor Day...
Tue, Sep 5 2023, 12:24 PM
After a frustrating selling spree last Friday, bonds are starting the new week with a bit more selling. Much like Friday, justifications are not as s...
Fri, Sep 1 2023, 3:47 PM
What's Up With Friday's Sell-Off?
Bonds lost ground today and it definitely wasn't as simple as traders havi...
Fri, Sep 1 2023, 11:50 AM
Bonds rallied out of the gate after the jobs report came out this morning. Perhaps it was the fact that 187k isn't much higher than the 170k forecast...
Thu, Aug 31 2023, 4:36 PM
Today's mortgage rates remain at levels that are much higher than most of the past few decades, but refreshingly lower than most of the past 3 weeks. ...
Thu, Aug 31 2023, 4:35 PM
Pssst. Some People Think NFP Could be Even Weaker Than Forecast
This morning's economic data came out slight...
Thu, Aug 31 2023, 11:20 AM
Another morning, another set of economic reports with the power to move markets. Today's examples included jobless claims coming in at 228 vs 235k, c...
