For those of you who are MBS Live members, yes, the recap title is the same as the MBS Huddle. Sorry for the lack of creativity, but this is an uninspiring week that's been living up to every ounce of its uninspiring potential.
Bonds were inconsequentially stronger overnight and moved almost perfectly sideways throughout the domestic session. It's as if the trading algorithms that have caused some ridiculous Thanksgiving volatility in the past were finally turned off (as they should be) or simply set to "sleep mode."
Apart from a modest bump toward higher yields in the middle of the day (right when European bonds closed), 10yr yields never moved more than 1 basis point between a high and a low. More impressively, the entire domestic session took place between 1.73 and 1.75%. That's a narrow day!
Tomorrow will be interesting from a data standpoint, but illiquid from a trading standpoint. There's more potential volatility too, as it's being viewed by many as the unofficial end-of-month trading day (no one is counting on Friday to serve that purpose). What does that mean for you? Nothing much, apart from the fact that we could see bonds move in a random direction regardless of data's implications. Beyond that, lenders could be hesitant to respond too aggressively to any marked improvements. Like me, they will be skeptical that any such improvements are anything other than a byproduct of holiday-driven illiquidity. Minds will be more firmly made up at the end of next week.