Refreshing Resilience, But Not Guaranteed

On a positive note, it was refreshing to see the bond market make gains on the day following a large, data-driven sell-off.  Such sell-offs frequently involve a 2nd day of momentum even when they prove to be temporary in the bigger picture.  Central banker comments may have been helpful in reframing the reaction to CPI--especially Goolsbee's assertion that "even if inflation comes in a bit higher for a few months (as many forecasts suggest), it would still be consistent with our path back to target."  His speech was released at 9:30am and that is incidentally when bonds began trending toward lower yields. Making matters confusing was the fact that European bonds rallied more sharply at 10am after comments from a Bank of England official.  The fact that Treasuries bottomed out at the EU close suggests the BOE comments may deserved more credit.  Either way, it's unclear whether we were destined to see these gains without help from central bankers.  "Help" remains a theme going forward.  We'll need it in the form of weaker econ data on Thursday if we hope to see another day of moderate gains.

Market Movement Recap
09:44 AM

2-way volatility resolving with moderate gains.  MBS up an eighth.  10yr down 3bps at 4.295

12:38 PM

Steady gains continue.  10yr down 7bps at 4.255.  MBS up 3/8ths.

02:34 PM

Off the best levels now with MBS down just over an eighth from the highs but still up a quarter point on the day.  10yr yield down 6.1bps on the day at 4.265.

05:16 PM

Flat to slightly stronger into the close.  MBS up just under 3/8ths.  10yr down 8.5bps at 4.245.

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