• Bonds rallied on rate-friendly press conference from European Central Bank
  • Gains subsided as Europe closed
  • Bounce in oil and stocks may have contributed
  • Bonds pushing stronger side of recent mini-range

There's the big-picture range of 2016 (the consolidative "triangle" of lower highs and higher lows) and then there's the more recent "micro range" that has persisted since the Fed Minutes released 2 weeks ago.  That smaller range runs from roughly 1.81 to 1.89% in terms of 10yr yields and it has come under attack over the past two days.  That sounds more dramatic than it is though.  Long story short, rates are simply favoring the lower end of that range heading into NFP.

Reasons for that include the waning likelihood of a Fed rate hike in June--the Fed wants to wait to see if Great Britain exits the European Union and what the effects will be on financial markets--and the generally bond-friendly stance in other central bank policies.  

Today we heard from the ECB and they confirmed a very bond-friendly stance, saying that rates would be at current levels or lower well beyond the end of their bond buying program (scheduled through March 2017 at the moment).  This wasn't much of a surprise, but investors were somewhat cautious about the possibility that the ECB might have said something else.  When they didn't, rates rallied in Europe, leading US yields lower during the morning hours.  

After Europe closed, rates leveled off in the afternoon.  Rising stocks and oil prices helped seal the deal though they never looked like direct sources of inspiration for rates.

MBS Pricing Snapshot
Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.
FNMA 3.0
102-15 : +0-03
10 YR
1.8010 : -0.0450
Pricing as of 6/2/16 4:30PMEST

Today's Reprice Alerts and Updates
A recap of Alerts and Updates provided to MBS Live subscribers.
9:44AM  :  Bond Markets Slightly Stronger as ECB Sings Same Tune

MBS Live Chat Highlights
A recap of featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBS Live Dashboard.
Ira Selwin  :  "Dustin - that Chase info was a hot topic at the secondary conference. Most still waiting to see/hear how it shakes out"
Dustin McAlister  :  "anyone here recently receive "good news" from Chase that they are delegated now and you can't have them UW your jumbo loans anymore?"
Matt Hodges  :  "jumbos don't always move with MBS...and it's "alls y'alls" - you are a Floridian, not a Southerner, my friend."
Hugh W. Page  :  "I have a big Jumbo Purchase loan that doesn't close until Aug 18th. We can lock it Monday up to 60 days at 3.50% on a 30 yr fixed but then borrower will have to pay 25 bps for a 15 day extension (not cheap). If we wait until we're 60 days out we must gamble with the Fed. I'm inclined to recommend floating as long as possible and pull the trigger if we need to or at least try and get to where we only need a 7 day extension for 1/2 the cost. What say y'all....."