- FN 4.5s now down to 102-03, the important "lock trigger" discussed earlier
- 10yr yields not faring as badly, but near their weakest levels of the day
- Stocks near the lows of the day
- Don't read too much into these price movements.
So here we are in a relatively light-on-data Monday following a week that saw some huge movements across all markets and the the sense of anticlimax is palpable. It happens occasionally, but not often that stocks and treasuries and MBS are all down on the day. It can mean various things, but usually a good guess would be that participation is low, or that investors are waiting for guidance.
Thus ensues highly technical movement... After all, what else is there to go on? Unfortunately, today's technical movements did exactly what they seemed poised to do in the absence of guidance, and that is to correct a bit more from Friday's highs. The clear target in MBS had been 102-03, and now that we've hit that, reprices for the worse are a risk. Whether or not you'll let this minor correction motivate a lot of locking is up to you. For what it's worth, AQ and I are still believers in our fairly convicted lock recommendation on Friday, and although we might edify ourselves by saying "see!? more weakness today," there isn't nearly enough evidence to suggest that what we're seeing is, in fact, weakness. It just kinda is what it is... And so we wait... Locking what we must, but hopefully after Friday, you had either already locked or have since locked that which was in question.