Thu, May 8 2025, 4:52 PM
Surprisingly Big Sell Off Relative to The Inspiration
Bonds ended up selling off somewhat sharply today with...
Thu, May 8 2025, 4:04 PM
Mortgage rates moved back up to the higher levels seen earlier this week after the official announcement of a trade deal between the U.S. and the U.K....
Thu, May 8 2025, 11:00 AM
Bonds mostly lost ground in the overnight session, and then lost just a bit more ground after the 8:30am econ data. This consisted of Jobless Claims ...
Wed, May 7 2025, 4:34 PM
Just as Underwhelming as Expected
No sense in trying to manufacture excitement out of something boring. Even...
Wed, May 7 2025, 3:35 PM
There's nothing like a Fed announcement day to get almost every media outlet to run headlines that attempt to tie the day's market movement to the Fed...
Wed, May 7 2025, 2:00 PM
Recent Although swings in net exports have affected the data, recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pa...
Wed, May 7 2025, 11:04 AM
Wednesday begins with bonds battling back from modest overnight weakness (now moving into modestly stronger territory), but not for any particular rea...
Tue, May 6 2025, 4:10 PM
10yr Auction to The Rescue
Today's 10yr Treasury auction was the only relevant calendar event in terms of po...
Tue, May 6 2025, 3:24 PM
Mortgage rates were unchanged for the average lender this morning, thanks to a modest improvement in the bond market overnight. Rates were on course ...
Tue, May 6 2025, 10:37 AM
Bonds have been on both sides of unchanged so far today. The overnight session began with slightly higher yields followed by a gradual rally. By 9am ...
Mon, May 5 2025, 4:30 PM
Selling Spree Continues, But Gently
Bonds were focused on this morning's ISM Services Index with some trader...
Mon, May 5 2025, 3:51 PM
Mortgage rates faced a slight headwind on Monday as economic data caused weakness in the bond market. This would typically result in higher mortgage r...
Mon, May 5 2025, 10:29 AM
The ISM Services PMI is this morning's key data, and arguably, the most relevant economic report of the week. Last week's ISM Manufacturing data wasn'...
Fri, May 2 2025, 4:17 PM
Data Dependence is Back, But Not in A Fun Way
Bonds definitely paused their long term relationship with econ...
Fri, May 2 2025, 3:22 PM
Mortgage rates had a nice little run, moving down from last Monday's highs of 6.98% (average, top tier 30yr fixed) to a mid-week low just over 6.80%. ...
Fri, May 2 2025, 10:29 AM
It is shaping up to be a straightforward morning for the bond market. There was a justified and logical amount of anticipation for today's numbers and...
Thu, May 1 2025, 4:19 PM
Bonds Brace For More Data-Driven Volatility
Today's ISM Manufacturing data played the role of coalmine canar...
Thu, May 1 2025, 3:32 PM
After enjoying a calm, steady winning streak so far this week, mortgage rates finally experienced a bump back toward slightly higher levels on Thursda...
Thu, May 1 2025, 11:26 AM
2 weeks ago, we got our first hint that the market was once again ready to respond to economic data after a few weeks of tariff headlines being the on...
Wed, Apr 30 2025, 4:51 PM
Action Packed Calendar But No Major Action in Bonds
This morning's economic calendar was certainly the most ...
Wed, Apr 30 2025, 4:19 PM
Mortgage rates continue enjoying a completely different volatility regime compared to just a few weeks ago. Back then, it wasn't a surprise to see th...
Wed, Apr 30 2025, 11:31 AM
In terms of line items, Wednesday morning is the week's most active morning for economic reports. Several of them were potentially important, but the ...
Tue, Apr 29 2025, 4:20 PM
Trading Range Restored. Big Data on Deck
Today's trading was almost a carbon copy of yesterday's with overni...
Tue, Apr 29 2025, 3:25 PM
It's now been more than a week since mortgage rates ended the day higher than the previous day. And we haven't recovered quite as much lost ground as...
Tue, Apr 29 2025, 10:50 AM
Once again, bonds were modestly weaker overnight and once again, that weakness is being reversed in early trading. Whereas scapegoats were nowhere to ...
Mon, Apr 28 2025, 4:12 PM
No Whammies in Treasury Borrowing Estimate
Bonds were slightly weaker overnight but quickly moved into stron...
Mon, Apr 28 2025, 3:36 PM
Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest levels since April 7th. The average lender remained at those same levels at the start of business today,...
Mon, Apr 28 2025, 11:39 AM
When getting a sense of what's happening in the bond market, it's frequently safe to ignore the last 2 hours of trading on Friday and the first 2 on M...
Fri, Apr 25 2025, 5:09 PM
Eerily Calm and Strong For 2nd Straight Day
After being heavily conditioned to expect elevated volatility wi...
Fri, Apr 25 2025, 4:06 PM
The news on mortgage rates has been frustratingly mixed recently, depending on the source. This is a factor of the various time frames and methodologi...
Fri, Apr 25 2025, 10:34 AM
Today's only scheduled economic report is Consumer Sentiment. Nonetheless, we would classify today as being "data free" because this is simply the fin...
Thu, Apr 24 2025, 4:26 PM
Solid Bond Rally For Debatable Reasons
Bonds improved moderately well overnight and added to those gains ste...
Thu, Apr 24 2025, 3:47 PM
Mortgage rates continue the slow, bumpy process of healing from the rapid rise seen 2 weeks ago. Last week was a solid victory in that sense with rate...
Thu, Apr 24 2025, 12:19 PM
What's "normal" for the bond market? That depends how far back you want to look. Starting in late February, we had about a month of mostly sideways m...
Wed, Apr 23 2025, 4:42 PM
Bonds Lose Almost All The Gains After Inflation Warnings in The Data
Bonds started out sharply stronger toda...
Wed, Apr 23 2025, 4:12 PM
Mortgage rates are an extension of the financial market, so it's no surprise that they've been more volatile than normal over the past few weeks as ma...
Wed, Apr 23 2025, 10:17 AM
Two factors had been contributing more than others to drive bond yields higher as of yesterday. The broader, ongoing factor is/was the tariff/trade s...
Tue, Apr 22 2025, 4:37 PM
Broadly Sideways Despite Intraday Volatility
Shorter term bonds lost ground today while longer term bonds an...
Tue, Apr 22 2025, 3:31 PM
In not so many words, last week's thesis was that "no news was good news" for mortgage rates. Specifically, an absence of major, unexpected developme...
Tue, Apr 22 2025, 11:07 AM
If there was an overriding theme last week, it was that the absence of new tariff drama helped the bond market recover some of the previous week's wea...
Mon, Apr 21 2025, 5:28 PM
Unfortunate Market Movement For Unfortunate Reasons
Global financial markets partook in a slow motion train ...
Mon, Apr 21 2025, 4:29 PM
Last week was a hopeful one for interest rates. The average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate fell more than 0.20% from the previous week's highs as ...
Mon, Apr 21 2025, 10:38 AM
Heading into last week, we expected to be waiting until after the holiday weekend to get a better sense of the prevailing tone in financial markets. I...
Thu, Apr 17 2025, 4:55 PM
Don't Sweat The Modest Weakness
Bonds began the day roughly unchanged and very flat for most of the morning....
Thu, Apr 17 2025, 2:35 PM
Mortgage rates managed to make a nice amount of progress this week after hitting the highest levels in roughly 2 months last Friday. The first 2 days ...
Thu, Apr 17 2025, 10:45 AM
The market and market participants could use a break after everything endured over the past 2 weeks. This holiday-shortened week turned out to provid...
Wed, Apr 16 2025, 3:48 PM
Bonds Reprise Familiar Role as a Safe Haven Amid Renewed Rout in Stocks
You've seen it plenty of times so fa...
Wed, Apr 16 2025, 3:29 PM
As markets digested implications of several fiscal policy changes over the past 2 months, a predictable trading pattern emerged. Stocks and interest r...
Wed, Apr 16 2025, 11:35 AM
What a difference a week makes. The present example has been entirely different than the previous example in terms of volatility and directional movem...
Tue, Apr 15 2025, 4:39 PM
Absence Makes the Bonds Grow Stronger
Bonds improved at a moderate pace for the 2nd day in a row, thus marki...
