Today, 4:01 PM
Bonds Rattled By Surprisingly Big Beat in Spending Data
Today's big surprise was the PCE price index compone...
Today, 3:50 PM
Interest rates care about quite a few different things, but inflation and Fed policy are two of the biggest considerations. One of the Fed's favorite...
Today, 11:37 AM
It's a bit of a tricky morning in the bond market when it comes to reconciling the data with the market movement. At face value the headlines make a ...
Wed, Apr 24 2024, 4:43 PM
Uneventfully Weaker Regardless of Durable Goods Data
Bonds were weaker in the overnight session on a combina...
Wed, Apr 24 2024, 4:10 PM
The average mortgage lender was able to offer conventional 30yr fixed rates that were very close to yesterday's levels despite bond market movement th...
Wed, Apr 24 2024, 10:31 AM
The bond market has been decidedly more sideways after hitting longer-term yield highs last Tuesday. 10yr Treasuries have been a relatively narrow ra...
Tue, Apr 23 2024, 4:35 PM
Straightforward Gains After PMI Data
Tuesday's session was infinitely more interesting than Monday's with th...
Tue, Apr 23 2024, 4:12 PM
Mortgage rates are driven by day to day changes in the bond market. Bonds are focused on the Fed and the economic data that shapes Fed decisions. To...
Tue, Apr 23 2024, 11:56 AM
Is it any surprise to see a strong reaction to economic data when the phrase "data dependent" has come to unequivocally rule all other approaches to u...
Mon, Apr 22 2024, 4:19 PM
Boring Monday Keeps The Focus on Next Week
Monday may as well have been a 3rd weekend day as far as the bond...
Mon, Apr 22 2024, 4:01 PM
Mortgage rates began the new week at almost exactly the same levels seen at the end of last week. There were no major events or economic reports to c...
Mon, Apr 22 2024, 8:47 AM
It's no secret that a vast majority of bond market movement these days occurs in response to a small handful of economic reports and the Fed's quarter...
Fri, Apr 19 2024, 4:32 PM
Sometimes Sideways is The Best Case Scenario
Granted, there was a possibility that today could have been a r...
Fri, Apr 19 2024, 4:30 PM
The Fed expected to be able to cut rates 3 times in 2024 as recently as March. Financial markets agreed. But the data that's come out since then has e...
Fri, Apr 19 2024, 10:06 AM
The overnight session began with a very clear flight to safety in stocks (sell) and bonds (buy) on headlines regarding increased hostilities between I...
Thu, Apr 18 2024, 3:55 PM
Good News and Bad News About Today's Selling
The bad news is that bonds resumed their weaker tendencies toda...
Thu, Apr 18 2024, 3:36 PM
Tuesday marked the highest mortgage rates since November, capping a mini surge that began after last week's inflation data. After a moderate improveme...
Thu, Apr 18 2024, 12:09 PM
After the best day in a month and a half on Wednesday, the bond market is back to its recent habit of selling off and moving toward higher yields. It...
Wed, Apr 17 2024, 4:32 PM
Too Soon to Say Higher Yields Are Bringing Buyers?
Bonds enjoyed their best day in more than a month and a h...
Wed, Apr 17 2024, 4:14 PM
Mortgage rates moved lower today after hitting the highest levels since mid November yesterday. Some lenders were down as much as an eighth of a perc...
Wed, Apr 17 2024, 11:16 AM
The bond market is getting off to a stronger start today despite an absence of any new motivations in the news or economic calendar. In fact, the cal...
Tue, Apr 16 2024, 4:56 PM
The bad times keep rolling for mortgage rates with the average conventional 30yr fixed rate back up to 7.5% according to our daily index. This is qui...
Tue, Apr 16 2024, 4:54 PM
Powell Confirms What The Bond Market Already Knew
Morning hours were frustrating for the bond market as we w...
Tue, Apr 16 2024, 11:25 AM
Yesterday's commentary pulled an occasionally used phrase off the shelf by referring to recent weakness as a "repricing" in the broader bond market. ...
Mon, Apr 15 2024, 3:55 PM
In 2023, there were multiple examples of mortgage rates moving up by roughly half a percent in a relatively short amount of time (1-3 weeks). Since t...
Mon, Apr 15 2024, 3:52 PM
Data-Driven Repricing Continues
There are two kinds of "repricing" to consider when you're a mortgage market...
Mon, Apr 15 2024, 11:28 AM
The bond market sold off steadily and gradually overnight session despite news of escalation between Iran and Israel. Ever since the start of the war...
Fri, Apr 12 2024, 5:04 PM
Time to Hurry Up and Wait Again
Friday ended up being reasonably pleasant, but mostly uneventful. Gains wer...
Fri, Apr 12 2024, 4:54 PM
Wednesday was one of the worst days in decades in terms of single-day upward movement in mortgage rates. Thursday added a bit more insult to the inju...
Fri, Apr 12 2024, 10:22 AM
Bonds began the overnight session in modestly stronger territory but the gains started adding up in earnest after European markets opened for the day....
Thu, Apr 11 2024, 4:39 PM
About as Uneventful as it Could Have Been
Any time we have a huge day of movement, regardless of the reason,...
Thu, Apr 11 2024, 4:14 PM
Wednesday's Consumer Price Index caused a brutally fast spike in mortgage rates. It wasn't notable for taking us to exceptionally high levels (Octobe...
Thu, Apr 11 2024, 12:10 PM
After a day like Wednesday (one of the top 20 weakest bond market days of the past few decades), one of the top concerns is that the following day wil...
Wed, Apr 10 2024, 4:23 PM
Mortgage rates surged at a pace seen only one other time since October 2022. The average lender moved up by 0.28%, which is functionally equivalent t...
Wed, Apr 10 2024, 4:16 PM
A Really Bad Day For The Bond Market
To reiterate the point made in today's morning commentary, there was a ...
Wed, Apr 10 2024, 11:38 AM
When it comes to big ticket economic events, the average anticipatory headline tends to be a bit more dramatic than the actual outcome. It's our way ...
Tue, Apr 9 2024, 4:27 PM
Mortgage rates roughly matched their highest levels in months yesterday, but managed to turn things around today. One could argue that the broader bo...
Tue, Apr 9 2024, 4:27 PM
Nice Tuesday For Bonds, But It's All About Wednesday
Tuesday turned out to be great for bonds with MBS up ne...
Tue, Apr 9 2024, 9:36 AM
The overnight session was generally a mirror image of yesterday's with 10yr yields moving several bps lower in a linear, steady trend. Unlike yesterd...
Mon, Apr 8 2024, 4:42 PM
Uneventful, Sideways Day After Initial Losses
Today had the dubious distinction of seeing the highest yields...
Mon, Apr 8 2024, 4:02 PM
Mortgage rates moved up somewhat abruptly today as the bond market lost more ground over the weekend. Rates are driven primarily by bonds, but mortga...
Mon, Apr 8 2024, 11:49 AM
Bonds began the new week with follow-through selling overseas. Losses were steady and linear in both Asia and Europe. It's tempting to chalk up some...
Fri, Apr 5 2024, 3:37 PM
Bond Market Resilience Suggests More Focus on CPI
Up until the 3pm CME close, the bond market was having a s...
Fri, Apr 5 2024, 2:56 PM
Data dependent... That's a phrase that is all too prevalent in financial markets and among members of the Federal Reserve. It refers to the fact that...
Fri, Apr 5 2024, 11:23 AM
The jobs number came in at 303k this morning versus a median forecast of 200k. Previous month revisions added a minimal 22k to the 3 month total and ...
Thu, Apr 4 2024, 4:33 PM
Mysterious Afternoon Gains Bring Yields Back Into The Range Just Before Jobs Report
It was a surprisingly an...
Thu, Apr 4 2024, 3:59 PM
Mortgage rates may have been able to claim some resilience over the past few days, but it hasn't been a great week in general. The average lender jum...
Thu, Apr 4 2024, 12:02 PM
Thursday is shaping up to be a calmer and less eventful trading day than the two most recent examples. It's similar in the sense that there was some ...
Wed, Apr 3 2024, 4:06 PM
Carbon Copy Day For MBS
The date and underlying events may have changed, but the price action in MBS was str...
Wed, Apr 3 2024, 3:34 PM
After starting the week with a sharp move higher, mortgage rates managed to avoid losing much ground yesterday. This was only achieved with a recover...
