Mortgage rates actually recovered a bit on Friday as the underlying bond market experienced a modest correction after spiking to the weakest levels in...
In a rather classic pattern, a hawkish read on the Fed gave way to international selling on Thursday. From there, a token correction was slightly mor...
Sometimes I send this Commentary out from some pretty nice places, sometimes not. Today comes from the tarmac at the Newark Airport, in Row 22, sittin...
Rates moved only moderately higher on Wednesday after the Fed rocked the bond market with its updated rate forecasts. To reiterate yesterday's analys...
Wednesday was a confirmation of a hawkish Fed that won't care about the economy until it sees actual damage, and even then, only if that damage coinci...
Who can think of September 21st without thinking about Earth, Wind, and Fire? Yesterday I was on a United Airlines flight out of San Francisco to Sava...
The Fed did not hike its policy rate today, but it did release updated forecasts that showed the average Fed member expects rates to be half a percent...
Learning how to make a big deal out of every Fed day is a requirement for passing the market commentary test. But the often-overlooked extra credit c...
Today is 092023 and I head to Savannah, GA for the SECUREN (credit union) conference. Did you know that the last day of 2023 is 123123? In other “fun ...
Mortgage application activity bounced back from the holiday-shortened prior week but is still running significantly below historic levels. The Mortg...
The FOMC (Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee) is what most people are referring to when they say "the Fed." This is the group that meets 8 times ...
Results of the August Residential Construction report from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development were decidedly m...
Arrr, me hearties! Last week, there be a mighty surge towards them long-term highs in the Treasury yields. But alas! With no bounty of econ data to st...
Mortgage rates began the day in slightly higher territory, but recovered after lenders offered mid-day price improvements. These sorts of mid-day cha...
With limited data of any particular relevance ahead of this week's Fed announcement, the path of least resistance in the bond market would be for a br...
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said on Monday that its index that measures home builder confidence in the new home market has fallen...
If you want something sobering, almost mesmerizing, here’s a short drone video of the flood damage in Libya (at the 15 second mark you can see how it ...
In and of itself, today wasn't too bad for mortgage rates. Things got a bit worse, but the change from yesterday was average or slightly lower. Ther...
Yesterday's natural impulse for the domestic bond market would simply have been to move toward higher rates due to a raft of upbeat economic data in t...
“Happy” 15-year anniversary of Lehman Brothers going belly up. “I was struggling to understand how lightning works and then it struck me.” One of the ...
Whatever is bad for the economy is typically good for interest rates. That's the grim irony for the mortgage market and it's the reason you might fin...
If you had to guess at what this morning's economic data would have done to the bond market ahead of time, current trading levels would almost certain...
This morning I head from Chicago to Orlando along with 74 million others (yearly). More fun with numbers: Although the MBA thinks we’ll fund about $1....
Today's big to-do was the release of August's Consumer Price Index (CPI), a critical inflation report with the power to significantly influence rate m...
Core month-over-month CPI came in at 0.3% versus a 0.2% forecast. This would be bad for bonds at first glance, and indeed it was--at least initially....
McDonald’s taking 9 years to eliminate its self-serve soda pop machines. (Couldn’t they take 5 hours and just move the machines behind the counter?) I...
The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said the volume of mortgage applications dipped slightly during the week ended September 8. MBA said its Market...
Mortgage rates started the week slightly higher for the average lender, but still below last week's highs. Most of what was lost yesterday was gained...
Bonds may be up a bit and down a bit between now and yesterday's close, but none of it is super consequential in the bigger picture. Of course there ...
Yesterday I listened to the CFPB’s Rohit Chopra discuss home loans. Today I head from Nashville to Chicago, both known all over the world. Here, the U...
At times over the past 2 years, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) has been the most important economic report on any given month and has had a bigger imp...
One of the topics here in Tennessee is how lenders can help real estate agents or clients. Wanna maybe help your client or favorite real estate agent ...
While it's impossible to predict the future when it comes to financial markets, it's usually possible to identify the events that have higher potentia...
There weren't any huge, obvious market movers in the overnight session. The average analyst is chalking up bond gains to good old "global growth conc...
Inflation and price increases can be widespread and impact many, like gasoline or flour, or can be very specific and impact only a small portion of th...
Mortgage rates haven't had a great week so far. Monday's bank holiday meant that mortgage lenders had to account for an extra day of movement in the ...
Bonds have been waiting in line for a shift in the economic data and the rally that might result, but the ill-tempered econ data continues the refrain...
Waiting For October
It seems like September only just arrived, but our sights are already set on October as the scene of the next major battle in the bond market. Today's trading session offered nothing...