Mortgage rates jumped quickly higher yesterday following the higher inflation reading in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). Now today, rates have complet...
Capital markets participants around the world breathed a sigh of relief when Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said Wednesday that President Donald ...
This morning's econ data included weekly jobless claims, which came in roughly in line with forecasts, and the Producer Price Index (PPI) which was a ...
Today's mortgage rate movement is very straightforward. Unfortunately, it's also marked by a straight line toward higher levels--in this case, the hi...
We know that bonds take a majority of their economic data cues from two reports: NFP and CPI. We knew that today's CPI was critically important in com...
With the whirlwind of Trump Administration news (Jonathan McKernan to lead the CFPB, playing hardball in Gaza, ending penny production, pardoning form...
Any recap of financial news headlines will likely mention Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony today. Some efforts could even be made to link t...
With Tokyo closed for a holiday, overnight Treasury trading was limited to futures markets until 2am ET. Yields opened about 1bp higher in Europe and...
Hah! Just kidding… But did you think, “Oh no!” or “Yippee!” when you saw that subject line? The ups and downs of the Consumer Finance Protection Burea...
Mortgage rates have been on a vacation from volatility since January 16th when they fell back toward 7% after hitting the highest levels since May 202...
Perhaps the most notable market-related headline over the weekend was Trump's pre-announcement of 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum (in addition to ex...
Friday brought the release of the big jobs report which is historically more likely than any other monthly economic report to cause the biggest pops o...
“The San Diego Padres visited an orphanage in Mexico. ‘It's really sad to see their faces with no hope,’ said Juan, age 9.” In other San Diego news, O...
As always, the jobs report matters. Today, we're seeing an obvious reaction to a fairly minimal miss (143k vs 170k f'cast in the headline job count). ...
Yesterday was notable for being the first day in more than a week to offer any excitement for rates. More notably, that excitement was the good kind....
“Nothing says, ‘I mean business’ than using a shopping cart at the liquor store.” We’re already 10 percent through with 2025, and residential lenders ...
Coming off yesterday's solid rally, the bond market underwent a modest correction in the overnight session. Most of the gains remain intact, but the ...
There are two main styles of measurement when it comes to keeping track of mortgage rates: daily and weekly. Sometimes, the differences in methodolog...
The recent absence of volatility in day-to-day mortgage rate movement has been an easy target for light-hearted indignation among market watchers. Bu...
To say the very least, there are more moving pieces to consider at the moment when it comes to the narrative guiding volatility and momentum in the bo...
I know where to go when this Commentary writing gig grows stale. Wanna make 30 clams an hour? Costco’s hiring! (Remember when lenders and originators ...
If you like your mortgage rate movement boring and minimal, this week's for you (and last week, and the week before that). Going all the way back to ...
How’s your ability to predict the weather? Apparently not good if you’re a groundhog. It is not hard to predict how you’ll hear from the IRS, if you d...
Bonds initially drifted into slightly weaker territory in the overnight session, but began bouncing back just after 9am ET. All this in spite of a qu...
We know that mortgage rates are driven by financial markets and we know that financial markets have experienced volatility amid the roll-out of new ta...
Where should we begin this week? There’s President Trump making good on one of his campaign promises over the weekend, and it wasn’t ending Russia’s a...
As we discussed heading into the weekend (and the likely official tariff announcement), the only recent, conclusive track record the market has for ta...
For all of the news that seems to be highly likely to cause volatility for rates, the market reaction ended up playing out on a very small scale. The ...
This morning's PCE inflation data was in line with expectations with the annual core PCE price index coming in at 2.8% and the monthly core coming in ...
Here in Las Vegas, I asked a German girl if Germans are afraid of numbers. She said 9. Numbers are interesting, as we will find out with the declared ...
Interest rates are driven by the bond market and bonds are at their best levels in over a month. As such, it's no surprise that mortgage rates are abl...
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) released its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) for December this morning. Pending sales measures the number ...
Bonds rallied in overnight trading. The move was exceptionally linear, without any obvious regard for movement in equities or European bonds. Yields w...
Any capital markets person will tell you, “What’s a surefire way to double your money in a casino? Fold it in half and put it back in your pocket.” I ...
Heading into today's Fed announcement, we didn't expect to receive any significant surprise on the stance of monetary policy. Financial markets had l...
“Did you ever notice that when you put the two words "The" and "IRS" together, it spells "Theirs"? The impact of taxes and tax cuts (potential or expi...
What follows is a comparison between today's newly released Fed announcement and the previous announcement. Additions are blue/underlined. Subtractio...
Bonds began the day in slightly stronger territory but have pulled back as we head into the noon hour. If we put today's movement under a microscope,...
What's Up With Today's Paradoxical Bond Rally?
PPI may not be as heavy a hitter as CPI on average, but one could make a case for this week being one of the rare exceptions. Strikingly, PPI managed t...