http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mortgage-rates Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05082026 Fri, 08 May 2026 17:52:00 GMT 69fe244fa93b4e269c2f5e51 Matthew Graham It ended up being a decent round trip for rates this week. Monday kicked things off with a jump to the highest level in more than a month, and the third highest since August 2025. But that ended up being the only day where rates went higher.  Wednesday brough the biggest chunk of the recovery with MND's daily rate index dropping 0.10%.  Tuesday and Friday (today) each added a 0.02% drop, taking the index to 6.42% after ending last week at 6.44%. War-related headlines were less of a factor today and volatility was unsurprisingly lighter as a result. This is an adjustment for seasoned rate watchers who are used to monthly jobs report being a distinct source of volatility. It's especially notable that the job count came in significantly higher with no ill effect on bonds/rates. Over the past 6 months, markets have shifted their jobs report focus from the payroll count to the unemployment rate, reversing decades of precedent. Today's outcome is more logical in that context as the unemployment rate was right in line with expectations at 4.3%. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05072026 Thu, 07 May 2026 18:46:00 GMT 69fce0a15e1be06161f79559 Matthew Graham The day began on a fairly hopeful note for the mortgage market. During overnight trading hours, the bond market improved following a report regarding a peace framework sent to Iran by The U.S.  When bonds improve, rates fall, all else equal. The gains were modest, but they allowed the average lender to set their first rates of the day at slightly lower levels compared to yesterday. Lenders prefer a "one and done" strategy when it comes to setting mortgage rates for the day, but they will make mid-day changes if the underlying market moves enough. The underlying market began moving more than enough just before the noon hour. Most lenders were forced to recall their initial rate offerings and make upward adjustments. The net effect at the time of printing is that the average lender is back in line with yesterday's levels.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05062026 Wed, 06 May 2026 19:40:00 GMT 69fb9b36725d30361c8eb919 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates spiked sharply on Monday, hitting the highest levels in more than a month as escalation fears ramped up surrounding the Iran war. Yesterday technically saw some recovery, but it may as well have been an "unchanged" day. Now today, we're seeing a more legitimate recovery with the average lender back down to last Friday's levels. The move follows a drop in oil prices inspired by progress toward a peace agreement. News came out overnight that The U.S. and Iran were close to signing a one-page memo outlining a more formal peace agreement. While full details would take time to hammer out, this would effectively end the war. Oil prices and bond yields fell at their fastest pace since mid April. Bond yields correlate with interest rates (in fact, they ARE interest rates), but mortgage rates are determined by slightly different bonds that are specific to the mortgage market. This means that mortgage rates and U.S. Treasury yields are almost always moving in the same direction, but at different paces, depending on the day.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05052026 Tue, 05 May 2026 18:43:00 GMT 69fa3c47423906f367998b30 Matthew Graham One popular refrain in the mortgage industry is that rates take the escalator on the way up and the stairs on the way down. Yesterday was definitely an "escalator" sort of day with the average lender moving up 0.12% for a top-tier 30yr fixed rate. Based on improvement in the bond market, rates are lower today, but just barely. It's not so much that rates are taking the stairs down, but more like they're a small child, waiting at the top of the staircase--afraid to take that first step. Some lenders are not even lower compared to yesterday's levels. Others are only modestly better. The absence of better improvement is at least partly attributable to the slower movement in the underlying bond market. Specifically, today's bond rally (good for rates) is less than one third the size of yesterday's sell-off (bad for rates). Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05042026 Mon, 04 May 2026 19:19:00 GMT 69f8f2ed692ec8791a075ae3 Matthew Graham Top-tier 30-year fixed rates are back above 6.5% today for the first time in more than a month for the average lender. Many lenders raised rates during the course of the day as well.  Those who didn't will likely have to raise rates tomorrow unless the underlying bond market makes a significant recovery overnight. Rates are driven by bonds and bonds are starting the week at higher yields in response to war-related developments. In general, escalation in the Iran war pushes bond yields higher by implying higher inflation via higher oil prices. Additionally, funding the war implies the need for more Treasury supply in the future as the U.S. issues debt to pay for the war. Higher supply leads to lower prices for bonds, and lower prices mean higher rates. Today's top-tier rate of 6.56% is the highest since March 27th, when it was 6.62% and the third highest since August, 2025. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05012026 Fri, 01 May 2026 17:58:00 GMT 69f4ec005c48b81197bd2670 Matthew Graham Low volatility was the most obvious theme for mortgage rates last week. From April 14th through last Friday, the range for a top-tier 30yr fixed rate remained in an ultra-narrow range of 6.29-6.33%. That trend persisted on Monday of this week, but things changed abruptly after that. Tuesday and Wednesday saw moderately big increases that took the average all the way up to 6.50%.  The past two days have been much calmer by comparison, even if rates remain elevated versus last week.  Today's resilience is most easily attributed to a slew of headlines suggesting that peace negotiations are at least being attempted by The U.S. and Iran. Additional progress toward a resolution (or lack thereof) is the most likely source of volatility for rates next week, but markets have also shown some willingness to react to big-ticket economic data (such as next Friday's jobs report). [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04302026 Thu, 30 Apr 2026 19:09:00 GMT 69f3ab14024e37c1a8f75d7a Matthew Graham Mortgage rates spiked on Wednesday (yesterday) after reports suggested a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As has been the case for most of the past 2 months, interest rate movement was clearly correlated with oil prices. Now today, both are moving back in the other direction though not for reasons that are as obvious as yesterday's. The rally began just after 2am ET with both oil prices and bond yields dropping in concert. Lower bond yields mean lower rates, all else equal. After hitting 6.50% for top-tier 30yr fixed rates, the average lender is back down to 6.45--roughly where they were yesterday morning before a round of mid-day increases in the afternoon. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04292026 Wed, 29 Apr 2026 20:09:00 GMT 69f268a0fb59458ec025b750 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates jumped higher today at the fastest pace in weeks to the highest levels since March 30th. There were two key motivations for the increase, but one accounted for a vast majority of the damage. News came out overnight that spoke to the possibility of a prolonged blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Markets took this seriously because it involved conversations with oil executives to assess the the impact of a prolonged blockade on domestic energy markets and fuel prices. Bond yields (which correlate with rates) and oil prices lurched higher again this morning after a White House official reiterated/corroborated the overnight news. The supporting actor in today's rate drama was the Fed announcement. While the Fed didn't hike rates, 3 voters voiced their opposition to the wording of the Fed's statement because it tacitly implies the Fed is more inclined to cut rates vs hike them in the near future. Those 3 voters would prefer to indicate that rates could go either way depending on inflation and the economy. The market took this as a minor negative indication for rates. Measuring in terms of 10-year Treasury yields, more than 80% of today's rate spike was in place before the Fed announcement came out. The average mortgage lender is back to 6.50% for top tier 30-year fixed scenarios, up from 6.38% yesterday. Most lenders made mid-day adjustments to even higher rates as the underlying bond market continued to suffer into the afternoon.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04282026 Tue, 28 Apr 2026 19:32:00 GMT 69f10e1a80727c719af87362 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates moved moderately higher today for the average lender, but not for any exciting reasons. Rather, the change has more to do with timing of the underlying market movement. While it's true that mortgage rates are directly influenced by the bond market, mortgage lenders prefer to set rates once per day. From there, they will occasionally make adjustments if the bond market experiences enough volatility. The catch is that lenders are less likely to adjust rates the later it is in the afternoon and if the bond market has been changing steadily/gradually. With all that in mind, yesterday saw a steady, gradual decline in the bond market that persisted into the late afternoon. As such, most lenders didn't go to the trouble of adjusting rates yesterday. In other words, the average lender was already planning on raising rates a bit this morning even if the bond market started the day flat. But bonds lost even more ground this morning (before lenders decided on rates for the day). Bottom line, lenders were tasked with adjusting for 2 days of modest weakness all at once. The result is a move that is bigger than the average recent day, but not because the underlying market movement was bigger or more volatile than average. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04272026 Mon, 27 Apr 2026 19:21:00 GMT 69efb8d43b258adc6dac24d3 Matthew Graham Despite the elevated volatility risk heading into the weekend, mortgage rates are starting the week in exactly the same territory compared to Friday afternoon. As always, our rate tracking refers to top-tier 30-year fixed rates for the average lender. The absence of meaningful movement in the underlying bond market is a testament to an increasingly high bar of relevance for war-related news. Specifically, the Iran war is the main source of inspiration not only for oil prices, but also for the bonds that dictate interest rates.  Earlier in the war, almost any headline had a visible impact on bonds. But now it's only the most significant developments. Those are harder to come by in late April as investors are basically waiting for either an official and permanent ceasefire, or a catastrophic re-escalation. Anything in between has proven to be fairly uninteresting when it comes to bond market influence. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates