http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mortgage-rates Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06182026 Thu, 18 Jun 2026 16:46:00 GMT 6a3423168e1136df3cd86966 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates spiked yesterday after the Fed announcement. The primary driver was the Fed's revised outlook for potential rate hikes later this year. Because the Fed Funds Rate governs ultra-short-term transactions (24hrs or less), it has the biggest impact on the shortest-term debt and a diminishing impact on longer term debt. While the typical mortgage may be ABLE to last for 30 years, in practice, the average mortgage length (due to refinances and sales) is a moving target assumed to be around 5 years. That's helping us today.  Shorter-term debt is still having some indigestion over Fed day, but longer-term debt has recovered more of yesterday's losses. Top tier 30yr fixed rates are about halfway back to yesterday's pre-Fed levels for the average mortgage lender and in the lower-middle of the range seen since mid-May. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06172026 Wed, 17 Jun 2026 20:09:00 GMT 6a3303bc47748140ba24a1c9 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates quickly erased a week of progress this afternoon following the Fed announcement and press conference. Fed announcement day historically has several components: the announcement itself, the summary of economic projections (SEP), and the press conference.  Within the SEP, there is the dot plot showing each Fed member's assumptions about where the Fed Funds Rate will be in the future if the economy continues on the expected course. "The dots" only come out every other Fed meeting, but they have a habit of causing volatile market reactions. Today's was no exception. The dots essentially show that the average Fed member now sees the Fed Funds rate at least 0.25% higher at the end of 2026 than they did back in March. This is responsible for the first big move in the bond market today. Bonds lost more ground during new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference. The reasons for this could be debated. Some traders may have been expecting Warsh to push back against the dot plot with a more rate-friendly tone. Others may have been disheartened at the lack of any guidance about how the Fed is interpreting incoming economic data. In general, lower transparency regarding the Fed's reaction function arguably requires traders to price in a higher risk premium. Because rates are based on bonds, and because bonds lost ground sharply, mortgage lenders ended up raising rates in the afternoon--some of them up to 3 times. When the dust settled, the average lender was back up to June 10th levels with top-tier 30yr fixed rates at 6.62%. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06162026 Tue, 16 Jun 2026 19:56:00 GMT 6a31abd23b093263e80dc8d2 Matthew Graham Today's top tier 30yr fixed rate was 6.54% for the average lender. You'd have to go back to May 14th's reading of 6.52% to see anything lower. The latest improvement follows another moderate drop in oil prices and bond yields as global markets digest the U.S./Iran peace deal. There's still some risk that the deal doesn't happen as is currently expected. If those risks materialize, rates could nudge back up toward recent highs. But if everything goes according to plan (or close to it), the bond market may continue pricing in the expected impact on oil prices. The only warning is that some analysts think oil prices have already gotten ahead of themselves in that regard. If those analysts are right, it could limit any additional momentum toward lower rates until peace is on more solid footing. Tomorrow brings the next Fed rate announcement. Markets foresee zero chance of a hike or a cut, but will nonetheless be paying attention to new Fed Chair Warsh's first press conference.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06152026 Mon, 15 Jun 2026 19:51:00 GMT 6a3059022c02715b2fee3db5 Matthew Graham The bad news: mortgage rates didn't fall quite as much as one might have expected following the confirmation of the Iran peace deal. The good news: rates had already begun pricing in the peace deal last Thursday and it only took a modest improvement for the average lender to match the lowest level in exactly one month.  For context, today's MND rate index of 6.56% is the same as the most recent low seen on May 29th. Before that, you'd have to go back to 5/15 to see anything lower. For even more context, prior to 5/15, today's rates would have been the 3rd highest since August 1st, 2025.  In other words, we are in solid shape in the context of the last month, but still in an elevated range.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06122026 Fri, 12 Jun 2026 18:51:00 GMT 6a2c56f5157044030467e538 Matthew Graham Some national headlines are pointing out that mortgage rates are higher this week. Those are based on weekly survey data which can often be stale compared to daily rate movement. Actual average rates are now in line with last Thursday's levels of 6.58% for top tier 30yr fixed scenarios. That's just 0.02% higher than May 29th levels. You'd have to go back another 2 weeks to May 14th to see anything lower. What's the catch? It's pretty simple. While we may be near the low end of the 4 week range, that range lies at the highs of 10 month range. It's also reasonably narrow, running from 6.58 to 6.75%. This week's resilience is almost entirely due to progress toward peace in the Iran war. If a peace deal becomes official, there's more room for improvement.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06112026 Thu, 11 Jun 2026 20:00:00 GMT 6a2b15f8434b29dedc2b1a48 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates began the day in uneventful fashion with the average lender right in line with yesterday's latest levels. Things might have gotten off to a slightly better start, but higher inflation in this morning's econ data and discouraging war-related headlines put upward pressure on bond yields (yields and rates are technically the same thing and they move in the same direction). The bulk of the day remained uneventful but that changed abruptly at 1:30pm when news circulated that Trump cancelled today's planned air strikes and said that both sides had approved final details of a permanent ceasefire, and that a time/place of a deal signing would be announced shortly. Markets reacted swiftly with stocks rallying, oil falling, and rates dropping. Mortgage lenders prefer to set rates only once per day, but they will make mid-day changes if the underlying bond market makes a big enough move. Today's was easily big enough, and a vast majority of lenders made friendly revisions to their daily rate offerings in short order. The net effect brough the average lender to the lowest levels since last Thursday. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06102026 Wed, 10 Jun 2026 18:32:00 GMT 6a29afc8b54b9c7998ad256e Matthew Graham There's been remarkably little change in mortgage rates so far this week. Monday saw a modest increase vs Friday, but since then, there's been essentially no change. Today's rates were technically 0.01% lower than yesterday's, but many lenders were perfectly unchanged. This is an acceptable result given the presence of high stakes economic data and ongoing war related headlines. The data in question was the Consumer Price Index (CPI), an inflation report that occasionally causes significant volatility for rates. Today's CPI (for the month of May) came in right in line with expectations, and slightly lower than expected when excluding food and energy prices. It seems to bear repeating that when CPI comes in lower than expected or lower versus the previous month, this rarely means that prices are falling. Rather, prices simply didn't go up quite as much as last month, but they're still rising at an unacceptably quick pace. Fortunately, rates get in position for forecasted results. Thus, the data merely needs to align with forecasts to avoid causing volatility. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06092026 Tue, 09 Jun 2026 19:42:00 GMT 6a286e9f660bc1b07a4d6a90 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates put an end to the most recent spike that followed last Friday's jobs report. Most of the upward movement happened on Friday, but yesterday offered a modest aftershock. Those two days brought the top tier 30yr fixed rate up to 6.68 from 6.58 on Thursday. Today's average remained perfectly flat at 6.68%. War-related headlines had periodic impacts on both oil prices and the bond/rate market. The scariest moment of the day for rates followed a headline that Iran had shot down a U.S. helicopter. Trump posted that the U.S. must respond to that attack, but subsequent comments minimized the initial sense of urgency. Oil prices definitely bounced higher on the news, but bonds/rates were able to hold their ground without forcing mortgage lenders to raise rates in the afternoon. Tomorrow brings the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is the earlier of the two official government inflation reports on consumer-level prices. The market is already priced for the median economic forecast, as always. If the actual numbers come in much higher or lower than those forecasts, it could cause volatility for rates in either direction (i.e. higher inflation = higher rates and vice versa). Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06082026 Mon, 08 Jun 2026 20:33:00 GMT 6a272a22a5293e5761747797 Matthew Graham The average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate rose 0.08% last Friday after the jobs report came in much stronger than expected. Today added another 0.02% of upward movement. Today's level of 6.68% is the 3rd highest of the past 9 months. Unlike Friday, there were no big-ticket economic reports driving volatility in rate markets. The only arguable cause and effect was seen earlier in the morning surrounding war-related headlines. These actually helped rates start the day lower than they otherwise would have. As the week continues, investors will remain tuned in to war-related developments as well as an important inflation report on Wednesday morning (the Consumer Price Index or "CPI").  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06052026 Fri, 05 Jun 2026 18:29:00 GMT 6a2337fedd4904e35ba017f6 Matthew Graham Over the past three months, mortgage rate movement has been driven primarily by developments in the Iran war. It's not that war, itself, is a consideration, but rather the implications for fuel prices and inflation. Bonds care deeply about inflation and interest rates are based directly on bonds. When inflation isn't raging (or at the risk of raging), rates/bonds spend most of their time thinking about the economy. Lately, the data has been even-keeled enough that it hasn't had enough of an impact to override the war's inflation-related volatility, but today was an exception. The jobs report not only crushed expectations, but it revised the past 2 reports sharply higher as well. The net effect is that the labor market looks more like it's finding its footing (possibly even accelerating) and less like it is still in the downtrend that characterized the post-covid normalization.  If all that was confusing, here's the simple version. More people got jobs than expected and the market didn't like it because it removes any argument in favor of the Fed cutting rates. Fed rates don't equal mortgage rates, but Fed rate expectations for the future cause mortgage rate movement in the present (and Treasury movement, and stock market movement, etc.).  On a bright note, even after today's rout, the average lender remains under the highs seen on May 19th. The Iran war is still the most important input for rates, and a confirmed peace deal would still provide relief.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates