http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mortgage-rates Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-10092026 Fri, 09 Oct 2026 18:37:00 GMT 6ac937151407a7ab6c55ede2 Matthew Graham Even though the underlying bond market is in slightly weaker shape today, mortgage rates ended up trickling just a bit lower than yesterday's latest levels. This can happen on occasions when there is a strong rally late in the previous day. Mortgage lenders don't end up passing along all of that improvement in rate sheets and some of them decide to wait for the following day to make the adjustments.  In addition, this morning's slightly weaker bond market performance reversed course around 11am and paved the way for multiple lenders to adjust their rates lower over the past few hours. The net effect is a move down to 7.48% for the average to-tier 30yr fixed rate, just barely edging out the 7.49% seen on the morning of October 2nd to claim the lowest spot since September 25th.  Bears/pessimists will be quick to note that this is still massively higher than we were at the end of august when rates were 6.75%. Nonetheless, it's the strongest counterattack we've seen since then.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-10082026 Thu, 08 Oct 2026 20:06:00 GMT 6ac7f9e8532e2b54af287804 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates moved lower today at their fastest pace in 3 months with the average top-tier 30yr fixed scenario ultimately falling 0.09%. There were thrills and chills along the way as well. The day actually began with a 0.01% INCREASE versus yesterday's latest levels. This highlights a unique aspect of our rate index which has the ability to change more than once per day in response to mortgage lenders making intraday updates to their rate offerings. In other words, almost every lender lowered their rates today--many of them more than once.  As has often been the case lately, the market movement can't be traced to one standout event. There was certainly some benefit from mid-day headlines regarding the Iran war, but that alone was scarcely sufficient to be labeled as the x factor. A forensic review of the underlying market suggests a meaningful amount of support came from investors "deciding" that bond yields were high enough to be worth some more asset allocation. In other words, investors are less interested in adding bonds to their portfolio if yields are climbing and at risk of climbing more. But at a certain point, yields are high enough to serve as a good entry point for investors to jump back into bond ownership. This phenomenon doesn't necessarily hearken additional downward momentum, but some would say it makes a case that recent ceilings should continue to be supportive unless new data comes to light that is unfavorable for bonds. In the current case, the nearest data with that kind of power would probably be next week's inflation reports on Wed/Thu.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-10072026 Wed, 07 Oct 2026 19:50:00 GMT 6ac6a4346c2a9d996278e410 Matthew Graham It was an exciting day for mortgage rates, and while we technically ended up slightly higher, it could have been much worse. In fact, it WAS much worse earlier in the day, but only for about 30 minutes.  Our daily rate index can be updated throughout the day if mortgage lenders change their rates in sufficient numbers. If we reported only the day's opening rate sheets, top-tier 30yr fixed rates would have been over 7.7%. Almost immediately after those initial rates came out (around 9:30am ET), the bond market started to recover. By 11am, multiple lenders had already improved. There was an additional round of improvement in the afternoon with almost every lender dropping their rates at least once (many of them more than once) by the end of the day. The net effect: today's average top-tier 30yr fixed rate rose only 0.03% versus yesterday to 7.59%--safely under recent highs.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-10062026 Tue, 06 Oct 2026 19:40:00 GMT 6ac55052121e51f3d1469d00 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates actually fell today--something they've done only 7 times since August 25th. While the outright levels remain near the highest since 2003, they're near the lowest in just over a week with top-tier 30yr fixed rates down to 7.56% for the average lender. What gives? Is this a sign that recent upward momentum is starting to wane? It's too soon to conclude such things, but it is somewhat encouraging that yesterday's long-term high was basically right in line with the high seen on September 30th (7.61 vs 7.60). This is the sort of "double top" behavior that some analysts look for when trying to identify momentum shifts. Bottom line: it's too soon to start celebrating. But it's better than the average day of late. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-10052026 Mon, 05 Oct 2026 20:18:00 GMT 6ac409019377d6627d0abf8f Matthew Graham The good news is that today's average top-tier 30yr fixed rate ended only 0.01% higher than last week's high (7.61 vs 7.60). If you are only interested in good news, have a great rest of your Monday and you're free to go. The rest of the news isn't terrible, but we we can't classify it as "good." Bonds lost ground today and, as has been the case on many recent occasions, there weren't any new, obvious scapegoats.  On a vast majority of days when rates make a move, there's a decent enough case to be made for some underlying cause. These days however, it's increasingly common to have to fall back on generalities like the following (warning: the list can be esoteric in parts, for those who aren't bond nerds): Iran War's implied impact on inflation and Treasury issuance Elevated Treasury issuance (fiscal imbalances) Elevated corporate bond issuance (competes for investor demand) Resilient stocks (competes for investor demand) Generally/gradually lower foreign demand (partly driven by tariffs and weaker trade relationships) Genuine strength/resilience in economic data A Federal Reserve that is willing to use the Fed Funds Rate to fight inflation (not the perfect tool, but it's the tool they have) None of these bullet points received a big new dose of information today, though that doesn't mean investors can't react to them over time. In addition, the bond market may be somewhat anxious ahead of this week's scheduled Treasury auctions, but we'll cross that bridge if we come to it (it's been a while since a Treasury auction cycle had a legitimately big impact on rate momentum).  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-10022026 Fri, 02 Oct 2026 19:03:00 GMT 6ac00678902e3f6f4a6cff17 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates rose 0.04% today to an index value of 7.57% for a top-tier 30yr fixed scenario for the average lender today. That uptick in and of itself isn't especially large, but it's a bit counterintuitive on a day where the hotly anticipated jobs report came in much weaker than expected.  The jobs report has 2 key components: Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and the unemployment rate. For most of the time any rate watcher can remember, NFP matters way more. The market still reacts to it (which is why bonds initially improved this morning), but unemployment has arguably taken the lead in terms of accurately capturing labor market trends. Even then, today's unemployment rate of 4.2% (up from 4.1% last month) shouldn't have been a problem. The catch was that the unrounded numbers made the gap even smaller (4.175% vs 4.141%). Additionally, more people entered the labor force. If the labor force had held steady with last month, today's unemployment rate would have been 3.951%. None of those numbers is particularly troubling for the employment outlook, but 3.951% especially so. That helped explain why bonds eventually gave back their early gains, along with a rebound in oil prices and easing concerns about European bond markets that had helped U.S. rates move lower yesterday. When bond gains evaporate, mortgage lenders may be forced to raise rates during the day. This happened on multiple occasions. The average lender was actually slightly lower at first, but ultimately ended higher compared to Thursday's latest levels.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-10012026 Thu, 01 Oct 2026 20:09:00 GMT 6abec108902768a1178d52f9 Matthew Graham It's a rarity these days, but mortgage rates actually moved lower today by more than a token amount. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate fell to 7.54% from 7.60% yesterday. There are multiple potential factors in play when it comes to explaining the underlying bond market rally, but none of them stand out as an obvious singular motivation. For those curious, the list (which has several esoteric factors that we won't be fully explaining here) includes, but is not limited to: traders covering bets on higher rates ahead of tomorrow's jobs report concerns over European bond market contagion focused on France and Italy  reassuring comments from Fed speakers helping Fed rate expectations move lower technical buying opportunity when Treasury yields hit 5.34% (10yr) A day like today invites consideration about bigger picture ceilings, but it will need to bring friends in order for that conversation to continue. We are bound to see periodic sighs of relief any time rates move higher as relentlessly as they have in the past month. Tomorrow's jobs report is as likely as anything to set the tone for the rest of that conversation. If job growth is much stronger than expected, the conversation is over until further notice. If it's much weaker than expected, we'll talk. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09302026 Wed, 30 Sep 2026 20:06:00 GMT 6abd6fcf8c5e10182219e617 Matthew Graham For a few moments this morning, it looked as if rates might buck the recent trend and recover a bit of ground today. The underlying bond market was fairly flat overnight and then managed to improve after this morning's PCE inflation data. But that improvement was short-lived.  Top tier 30yr fixed rates jumped to 7.60%. That's only 0.02% higher than yesterday, but yet another long-term high. As frustrating as it continues to be, there are no convenient scapegoats for the reversal in terms of intraday news/data. Some small case could be made that the day's economic data wasn't exactly rate-friendly, but the timing of the market movement and indicators elsewhere in the market suggest that's a waste of time. The only irrefutable way to connect cause and effect is to use broad strokes. The bond market is in the midst of a fairly rapid reassessment of the outlooks for Fed policy, inflation, and the supply/demand equation for government debt. Today may have seen some additional volatility due to the mechanics of the month/quarter-end trading environment, but not to the extent that anyone should expect rates to magically fall just because tomorrow is a new month.  A meaningful drop in rates will require one or more of these things: Iran war ending and fuel prices dropping economic data weakening inflation falling significantly and sustainably There are other things that can help/hurt, but these are the big three at the moment. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09292026 Tue, 29 Sep 2026 20:03:00 GMT 6abc1bb6e25675b14b6626e9 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates moved higher again on Tuesday as the bond market continues recalibrating expectations for Fed policy, economic growth, and inflation. The weakness is especially frustrating considering a fairly large drop in oil prices today, but as we discussed yesterday, rates have a lot more on their mind than oil these days. Our top-tier 30yr fixed rate index rose from 7.50 to 7.58% today--the highest since November 1st, 2023. In this sense, mortgage rates are doing much better than their often-cited benchmark, the 10yr Treasury yield, which is the highest level since 2007. That's because mortgage rates are directly based on mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and not U.S. Treasuries, and MBS have been outperforming Treasuries relative to 2023's levels. Today's economic data didn't offer meaningful relief although it wasn't a driver of today's upward pressure. We're seeing more and more evidence that at least some of that pressure has to do with factors such as the quarter-end trading environment which transcends news headlines and economic reports. This doesn't necessarily mean that rate momentum will reverse on October 1st, but the month could at least restore a more logical relationship between typical causes and effects. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09282026 Mon, 28 Sep 2026 20:07:00 GMT 6abacb653b284f746a4bc1a9 Matthew Graham Despite Friday afternoon's promising bond market rally and mortgage rate improvement, today's top tier 30yr fixed rate bounced back up. The average lender is now at 7.50% for the first time since April 30, 2024.  While there's been a lot of short-term correlation between oil prices and interest rates over the last 6 months, oil does a poor job of explaining much of the recent upward momentum in rates. At times today, it seemed that the higher rates coincided with higher oil prices, but oil fell all the way back to Friday afternoon's levels at one point while rates remained elevated. The other factors are a laundry list of usual suspects: strong economic data, anxiety regarding incoming data being stronger as well, supply/demand issues in the Treasury market, elevated bond market supply in general, etc. That said, there weren't any major new developments for that laundry list today.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates