http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mortgage-rates Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-11062026 Fri, 06 Nov 2026 20:06:00 GMT 6aee3563585f9968036fa06e Matthew Graham Today was an odd one for mortgage rates. Anyone who's been following the rate market for very long will tell you that the monthly jobs report is one of the most reliable source of volatility for rates. In general, when job growth is much stronger than expected, rates rise and vice versa. But in today's case, rates managed to hold perfectly flat despite the jobs report absolutely crushing expectations. Understand that no one who is offering a reason for this would have predicted this result if they knew the jobs numbers ahead of time and were simply asked to predict how rates would react. In other words, the only reason you're getting their explanations is because the paradoxical market reaction demanded a different narrative. The only things that were true both before and after the jobs report were as follows: The Fed recently said it was almost exclusively focused on the inflation side of its dual mandate (stable prices + maximum employment). Bonds/rates have been preoccupied taking cues from concerns about the tech sector and heavy selling in tech stocks. Bonds/rates/stocks are still in the process of making sense of this week's election results. Markets have been more interested in the unemployment rate component of the jobs report than the payroll count (it was the latter that really surged in today's data).  None of these bullet points would have fully predicted the paradoxical resilience in rates today, but they perhaps help get us close to wrapping our minds around it. At the end of the day, the average lender was right in line with yesterday's levels--the lowest since September 22nd.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-11052026 Thu, 05 Nov 2026 19:15:00 GMT 6aecd7277e74c6f9ac9a1ff7 Matthew Graham Yesterday, it was a drop below 7.25%. Today, the 7.20% floor was broken. Mortgage rates have been on a tear over the past month and are now back to 7.17% for the average lender. If there's one thing that deserves most of the credit for this bull run, it's the extreme bearishness in tech stocks. The NASDAQ is now down roughly 14% from the October highs and the drop perfectly coincides with the drop in bond yields and interest rates.  The road ahead is fairly simple: if tech continues causing panic in stocks, interest rates can continue to benefit. The caveat is that the benefit to rates has been getting smaller and smaller relative to the drama in stocks. This would also suggest that any miraculous bounce in stocks would likely prompt a similar correction in rates.  Economic data still matters as well. On that note, tomorrow brings the monthly jobs report, which should always be respected as a potential source of volatility.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-11042026 Wed, 04 Nov 2026 20:25:00 GMT 6aeb97ddaf61f33a7037a69f Matthew Graham 30yr fixed rates moved over 7.25% on September 23rd, 2026 and continued to long-term highs of 7.61% by early October. But starting in mid October, rates began declining as the market grew increasingly concerned about the tech sector. Until today 7.27% marked the floor of the present rally. Now the floor is lower. Rates began the day moderately lower with an average top-tier 30yr fixed rate of 7.25%. Reasons can be debated, but may include: Investors coming off the sidelines after mid-term election uncertainty was cleared up Ongoing trouble for the neocloud portion of the tech sector (i.e. Coreweave, Nebius, etc) Another sharp drop in fuel prices  Earlier in the day, it wasn't a given that rates would end up lower. Just after 10am, it looked like the stock market might get so much love that bonds/rates would be left wanting. But tech stocks ended up hitting their ceiling for the day at that time and bonds were subsequently able to improve to their best levels in the afternoon. When bonds improve enough intraday, mortgage lenders occasionally adjust rates lower. Not every lender did so today, but it would enough to bring the average down to 7.22%--the first time we've been below 7.25% since September 22nd.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-11032026 Tue, 03 Nov 2026 20:21:00 GMT 6aea4545610856350bf561f3 Matthew Graham Well... they can't all be winners. It seems as if rates could do no wrong over the past 3 days with each marking the lowest level in more than a month for the average top tier 30yr fixed rate. Today wasn't a winner, but it wasn't exactly bad. Apart from the past 3 days, today would still have been the lowest rate in more than a month, and it was only 0.03% higher to boot. So what happened? First off, when we're talking about a 0.03% change day-over-day, it's not particularly important to investigate causation because that level of movement falls in the "incidental" category. Nonetheless, there was some obvious motivation this morning in the form of stronger economic data.  Job openings data for the month of September was released today. It was the highest in 4 months and quite a bit higher than expected. All else equal, stronger labor market data tends to put upward pressure on rates. Tech stocks were also modestly higher today, and weakness in the tech sector has been a key factor driving persistently lower rates over the past several weeks.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-11022026 Mon, 02 Nov 2026 20:39:00 GMT 6ae8f6581d370491bf687b95 Matthew Graham It was a perfectly fine day for mortgage rates to start the new week. The underlying bond market improved modestly, drawing on a combination of sharply lower oil prices and another drop in tech-related stocks. While it's true that oil prices haven't had a reliable impact on bonds/rates over the past month, today's drop was big enough that is probably helped to some extent, especially when we consider some headwinds created by updated borrowing estimates released by the U.S. Treasury today. Once per quarter, Treasury updates estimated Treasury auction amounts. Treasuries are the foundation of almost all interest rates in the U.S. When supply increases or demand falls, it puts downward pressure on prices and upward pressure on rates, all else equal. Today's upward pressure was fairly modest, but still noticeable. Mortgage lenders played it fairly safe by setting today's rates perfectly in line with last Friday's. That makes today tied for the lowest 30yr fixed level since September 23rd, 2026. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-10302026 Fri, 30 Oct 2026 18:24:00 GMT 6ae4e2c4c00ac0be8dda535d Matthew Graham The rate market continues taking cues from turmoil in the tech sector. That resulted in the lowest rates in more than a month today as tech stocks slide to their lowest levels since July.  The biggest shift for the underlying bond market (bonds dictate rates) came just before 1pm on reports that Anthropic's post IPO credit rating was not likely to be "investment grade." That matters because it means Anthropic would face higher borrowing costs.  Given the company's key role in driving the AI buildout, there are two implications that helped bonds/rates today. First, higher borrowing costs mean lower potential debt issuance, and that issuance has been a key factor in pushing interest rates higher in 2026. Second, any headwinds for major AI companies suggest potential economic headwinds given the central role AI plays in the current economic growth cycle. In general, lower/slower economic growth is good for rates/bonds, all else equal.  The average mortgage lender added modestly to yesterday's larger improvement, resulting in a top-tier 30yr fixed rate just under 7.30%. This is the lowest level since September 23rd, 2026. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-10292026 Thu, 29 Oct 2026 20:16:00 GMT 6ae3b037553d5ce3dd8d0509 Matthew Graham After 4 rather uneventful trading days, the bond market (which underlies interest rate movement) experienced a bit more volatility today. Fortunately, it was volatility in a friendly direction. 10yr Treasury yields ended the day at their lowest level since September 22nd. Mortgage rates dropped to their lowest mark since September 23rd for the average lender.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Bond gains coincided with moments of weakness in the stock market, primarily at the 9:30am NYSE open and the 4pm close. Weaker guidance from the likes of Intel and Amazon reinforced the recently cautious narrative surrounding tech and the AI buildout, sending tech stocks sharply lower at 4pm. NOTE: today's mortgage rate index has not yet been updated for any additional lender reprices that may hit in the coming hours. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-10282026 Wed, 28 Oct 2026 20:15:00 GMT 6ae258dff21fac7fbca512d3 Matthew Graham Today's Fed announcement had no impact on mortgage rate movement, and minimal impact on intraday bond market volatility. Well before the Fed announcement, the bond market was already slightly weaker compared to yesterday's latest levels. As a result the average mortgage lender set rates just a hair higher. Despite the increase, 30yr fixed rates are only 0.05% above the low of 7.30% seen last week and only 0.02% above yesterday's mark of 7.33%. Recent upward pressure is a factor of improvement in investor sentiment surrounding the tech sector. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-10272026 Tue, 27 Oct 2026 20:10:00 GMT 6ae107c48b7d8ac59e384d18 Matthew Graham It was a remarkably calm day for the mortgage market on two separate levels. First off, the average lender set this morning's rates right in line with yesterday's latest levels. Additionally, there were very few intraday changes (and in those cases, rates improved modestly). [thirtyyearmortgagerates] All of the above is made possible by the fact that the bond market stayed right in line with yesterday's levels all day long. This has happened for two straight days now, and it's the sort of stability that seemed like a distant memory several weeks ago. Will it last? There's never any way to know for sure. The bond/rate market is constantly at risk of responding to several sources of motivation. It just so happens that those sources have been silent after last week's improvement.  It's worth noting that there's a new Fed rate announcement tomorrow. Fed announcements often create volatility for rates and that volatility is rarely related to whether the Fed hikes/cuts/holds steady. In tomorrow's case, we already have a high degree of certainty that the Fed will not be hiking rates. Any impact the Fed has on mortgage rates would be a factor of the words they use in the policy statement or the words spoken by Fed Chair Warsh in the 2:30pm ET press conference.  Beyond the Fed, there are still other potential considerations for rates (tech sector volatility, war-related headlines), but never any guarantee that they'll adhere to a certain timeline.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-10262026 Mon, 26 Oct 2026 19:43:00 GMT 6adfaed7a9429089a27100a9 Matthew Graham It was an uneventful day for mortgage rates, which is just the sort of thing you want to see when the average lender is just a hair above the lowest levels in more than a month. There were no significant economic reports or other market developments that caused any major volatility for rates/bonds. The dominant theme, of late, has been investor rotation out of AI-related assets and into the bond market. Excess demand for bonds is good for rates, all else equal. But there's a nuance. Corporate bonds related to certain tech companies have seen sharply lower demand. That's actually been good for mortgage rates and Treasuries because the tech-related corporate bonds had been drawing demand away from the safer mortgage/Treasury debt.  Today's ground-holding is all the more encouraging considering there was some healing in the tech sector, both in terms of stock prices and corporate bond demand.  Simply put, mortgage rates held steady despite slight headwinds elsewhere in the market.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates