http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mortgage-rates Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08072026 Fri, 07 Aug 2026 20:58:00 GMT 6a7647a81e74fb396f5338c7 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates dropped moderately today after the latest jobs report showed much lower jobs created than expected. The monthly jobs report is one of the most--if not THE most--important pieces of economic data to the rate market on any given month. If the numbers are close to forecasts, there isn't always a big reaction. Today's numbers were quite far from forecasts for some parts of the report, but slightly offset by others. The net effect was a decent improvement in the underlying bond market. Because mortgage rates are based on bonds, rates dropped accordingly. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moved down from 6.77 to 6.74--the lowest since July 20th.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08062026 Thu, 06 Aug 2026 18:08:00 GMT 6a74cf90a13cad8ee26a9f0d Matthew Graham Mortgage rates rose modestly on Thursday, with multiple lenders making mid-day adjustments in response to bond market volatility. Bonds remain highly attuned to war-related developments and the impact on oil prices which, in turn, have a bearing on inflation implications.  Higher inflation begets higher interest rates, all else equal. In addition to the oil/inflation narrative, bonds also came under some pressure as Alphabet announced a large corporate bond offering. Like anything in the market, bond prices change in response to supply and demand. If a big corporate bond competes for investor demand, it can indirectly lower the demand for the bonds that underlie mortgage rates. When bond prices fall, rates rise. The good news is that the adjustment is very small in the bigger picture. Additionally, yesterday's rates were the best in more than 2 weeks. In other words, today's rates are modestly higher than the 2-week lows.  There's potential for volatility tomorrow, for better or worse, in response to the monthly jobs report. And of course, war-related headlines create ongoing risk/opportunity for movement in either direction.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08052026 Wed, 05 Aug 2026 19:11:00 GMT 6a7393c5a946420caa14ee95 Matthew Graham The bond market and mortgage rates have been on the move lower recently after hitting longer term highs at the end of July. Today offered a break from the recent movement with bonds and rates holding perfectly flat day-over-day. The upside is that this means it's yet another day spent at the lowest levels in more than 2 weeks.  The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate remained at 6.75%.  Flat oil prices helped facilitate the flat bond market performance.  Risks and opportunities remain in the coming days. If a Hormuz transit agreement is confirmed, rates could certainly fall.  If fighting breaks out again, rates could move higher. Friday's jobs report represents similar "either/or" risks depending on the outcome of the data.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08042026 Tue, 04 Aug 2026 19:01:00 GMT 6a7238a6965da1c23f84b9df Matthew Graham Mortgage rates were a bit hesitant to follow the bond market's advice yesterday. Specifically, bonds rallied (i.e. bond prices moved higher and yields/rates moved lower). This almost always coincides with mortgage rates falling by a proportional amount. But yesterday didn't see the typical level of correlation for many lenders. Today is a different story. The additional gains in the bond market (courtesy of Iran-related headlines and lower oil prices) offered enough reassurance for mortgage lenders to get a bit more aggressive in terms of keeping pace with the market.  The net effect is an average 30yr fixed rate that is now down to the lowest levels in just over 2 weeks. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08032026 Mon, 03 Aug 2026 19:27:00 GMT 6a70ed93a676cdc56cf57941 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates had a tough day on Friday, largely in response to bond market volatility surrounding heavy forex trading as a part of US/Japan efforts to prop up Japanese currency (not a common source of inspiration for rates).  Higher oil prices didn't help. As we begin the new week, de-escalation in the Iran war pushed oil prices much lower. As has been the case frequently during the war, bond yields followed oil prices in relative lock-step.  While it's almost universally true that lower bond yields beget lower mortgage rates, there are occasionally days where the correlation isn't as strong as normal. Today was one of them. Whether or not any given lender was lower than Friday depends largely on whether they raised rates in the middle of the day on Friday. The average lender is still fairly close to the rates seen on Friday morning. Lenders who raised rates on Friday afternoon are generally a bit lower today. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07312026 Fri, 31 Jul 2026 17:36:00 GMT 6a6cdf4bb00255beec06f948 Matthew Graham To be fair, mortgage rates haven't been far from their long-term highs in over a week, but today's 30yr fixed index level of 6.83% is functionally equivalent to the actual long-term high of 6.85% seen on July 23rd.   Higher rates are driven by weakness in the bond market. The latter can happen for many reasons. Sometimes those reasons are as simple as an economic report showing stronger job growth or higher inflation. Other times, the reasons are more esoteric. Today's bond market weakness may have been modestly influenced by this morning's Employment Cost Index, but the bigger issue was definitely in the esoteric category. It involved behind the scenes intervention in forex on the part of the Treasury Department and its Japanese counterpart (Japan's Ministry of Finance).  In not so many words, Japan occasionally sells dollar-denominated bonds in order to buy Yen-denominated bonds in order to make its own currency more valuable. Today, the U.S. did the same in order to take some control of that narrative and have a say in the bonds that were being sold. Either way, bond selling = higher rates, all else equal.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07302026 Thu, 30 Jul 2026 18:52:00 GMT 6a6b9ff1ea19b50d1c060a48 Matthew Graham It's not at all uncommon for mortgage rates to experience microscopic movement in either direction on any given day. In fact, it's probably the most common eventuality over time. In that sense, today was unremarkable with the average lender moving just a hair lower versus yesterday's latest levels. But in another sense, it's very good news. After yesterday's market reaction to the Fed press conference, there was a risk that bonds (which dictate rates) would continue their protest. The absence of additional drama suggests the reaction was "one and done."  This morning's economic data had a small chance to cause a reaction in rates, but it turned out to be uneventful and possibly even helpful.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07292026 Wed, 29 Jul 2026 19:53:00 GMT 6a6a64e79c623022e653dcb4 Matthew Graham Heading into today's Fed announcement, futures markets indicated roughly a 1 in 3 chance that the Fed would hike rates. They did not. This seems like it should have been good news for rates, but there's a catch. Rates exist on a spectrum defined by "duration." Specifically, there are different rates for different lengths of loans. The Fed Funds Rate is relevant to loans of the shortest duration (mostly overnight lending between the largest financial institutions). Mortgage rates, meanwhile, are more closely linked to longer term loans--bonds with durations that average 5-7 years.  When a Fed decision or the Fed outlook is actively being traded, we often see big divergences between the shortest-term rates and the longest. Today's reaction is a prime example. 2-year Treasuries (short enough to get some benefit from the Fed holding rates steady) fell noticeably. But longer term rates launched higher.  Why? Warsh basically told the market that he doesn't need to hike if the market is going to do it for him. And because short-term bonds have to stay more closely linked to the Fed Funds Rate, it's longer-term bonds that can actually accommodate Warsh's request.  Mortgages are long enough to see a bit of damage from this trading dynamic, thus the moderate increase in today's average 30yr fixed rates. It's also worth mentioning that the day got off to a challenging start for rates due to overnight increases in oil prices (which have been closely linked to rate movement during the Iran war).  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07272026 Mon, 27 Jul 2026 18:44:00 GMT 6a67a85b9172103936d6ce31 Matthew Graham After bottoming out around 6.5% in late June, mortgage rates moved steadily higher this month, ultimately hitting 6.85% last Thursday--the highest level in over a year. There was a modest recovery on Friday with a fair amount of intraday changes from the average mortgage lender.  Because rates are based on bonds, it's worth noting that bonds are in better shape today compared to Friday's latest levels. But if we use Friday's stronger mid-day levels as a baseline, bonds are just barely stronger. As such, it's no surprise to see mortgage rates just barely lower. The key consideration for the bond market over the weekend was the announcement of a pause in the fighting in Iran. This helped oil prices move lower, thus lowering inflation implications and bond yields. This is the financial market's way of saying interest rates can also come down.  The caveat is of course that a resurgence of fighting in Iran could cause oil and inflation expectations to rise again, thus putting renewed pressure on rates. In addition, Wednesday's Fed announcement is also a potential source of volatility. The Fed is not expected to hike or cut, but the market is less convicted than normal about the Fed's likely course of action. That means the result will be somewhat surprising to a larger share of the market than normal, and that's a recipe for volatility. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07242026 Fri, 24 Jul 2026 19:06:00 GMT 6a63b904dd7712242847907d Matthew Graham If you're just tuning in, mortgage rates had a rough day yesterday on top of a rough week overall. The result was the highest 30yr fixed rate in over a year with our index moving up to 6.85%. As has been and continues to be the case, rate momentum has been strongly correlated with oil/gas price momentum. With that in mind, it's no surprise to see rates moving lower on a day where oil prices recovered from their recent highs. That's the good news, and it brings the rate index down 0.04% to 6.81%.  The not-so-good news is that 6.81% is still the highest in more than a year apart from yesterday. But longest journeys and single steps... Oil price volatility will remain in focus until the war is definitively over (and more importantly, until oil price volatility actually dies down with prices trending significantly lower). In addition, next week's Fed announcement brings a good amount of surprise potential for the rate market. The Fed is not likely to hike rates, but confirming that will be worth something to the market. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates