http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mortgage-rates Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07102026 Fri, 10 Jul 2026 18:39:00 GMT 6a513cf43328a6a014ab1b15 Matthew Graham Rates are based on bonds and bonds have been taking cues from oil prices this week. Oil was flat overnight, bringing bonds along for the sideways ride. As such, the average mortgage lender began the day almost perfectly in line with yesterday's latest levels.  All that having been said, bonds experienced some of their own weakness in the afternoon, independent from oil prices (which continued sideways to slightly lower). Some mortgage lenders may choose to raise rates a bit before the end of businesses.  Those who don't will instead have to adjust for this market movement on Monday morning (assuming bonds don't change much by then). [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07092026 Thu, 09 Jul 2026 19:39:00 GMT 6a4ffa44af2a6d39a8f1386b Matthew Graham Mortgage rates were rapidly approaching 10-month highs as of yesterday afternoon. They managed a friendly bounce today, but it was fairly small with the average lender dropping 0.03% to 6.5% for a top-tier 30yr fixed scenario. One reason for caution is that the rate improvement looks to be dependent on oil price volatility after this week's resurgence in U.S./Iran tensions. Oil finally moved lower today. In general, lower oil prices imply lower inflation pressure, and lower rates. This isn't always the case, but there are times (like this week and many of the weeks since the start of the Iran war) where oil prices and rates are clearly correlated.  In the bigger picture, rates are drifting sideways in a narrow range near 10-month highs as they wait for more concrete inspiration.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07082026 Wed, 08 Jul 2026 19:03:00 GMT 6a4ea0cb8a34d3f993421cb4 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates have moved higher at a moderate pace over the past 2 days as tensions between The U.S. and Iran see a resurgence. As far as the underlying bond market is concerned, most of the damage was done yesterday. But today's news added emphasis when Trump declared the ceasefire to be over. Rates are based on bonds, but mortgage lenders prefer to set rates once per day and only change them if bonds make a big enough intraday move. That meant the average lender had to play some catch-up with bond market movement this morning.   All that to say that bonds didn't have nearly as rough of a day today even though mortgage rates rose just a bit more than they did yesterday. Perhaps that offers some hint that the underlying market may be reaching some sort of supportive ceiling, but it really depends on exactly how much the war re-escalates. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is back up to 6.68%, matching its second highest level in more than 10 months. May 19th's level of 6.75% is the official 10-month high. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07072026 Tue, 07 Jul 2026 18:53:00 GMT 6a4d4cd48d7bbfbc2c820a22 Matthew Graham It's been a while since oil prices were the focal point of the interest rate conversation, but that recently familiar dynamic is once again playing out. The U.S./Iran peace deal is on increasingly shaky ground and the ability for oil to flow through the Strait of Hormuz has been increasingly compromised over the past 24 hours. Most recently, headlines suggest the U.S. is withdrawing authorization for Iran to export oil after Iran's recent attacks on cargo vessels. Rising oil prices imply higher inflation. Higher inflation leads to higher rates, all else equal. At the time of this article, the net effect on mortgage rates is modest with the top tier 30yr fixed rate only up 0.04% for the average lender. That said, many lenders may issue late day changes that push rate even higher.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07062026 Mon, 06 Jul 2026 19:23:00 GMT 6a4c0189956370f2f66eecad Matthew Graham Volatility is always a risk surrounding 3 day holiday weekends when it comes to markets and mortgage rates, but this time around, things have been very calm. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate remained almost perfectly flat versus last Thursday with the MND index technically falling by 0.01%. This week's calendar of scheduled events is less consequential than last week's. After today, there is essentially no big-ticket economic data. In the bigger picture, 30yr fixed rates are near the center of their range over the past 6-7 weeks.  Collectively, that range represents the highest levels in roughly 10 months with 30yr fixed rates averaging just over 6.6%. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07022026 Thu, 02 Jul 2026 17:05:00 GMT 6a469b5cfb356d7231bfba06 Matthew Graham Today is a half day for financial markets, which is a typical feature of a federal holiday weekend. Because tomorrow is fully closed, the big jobs report (normally a Friday affair) was instead released this morning. It ended up helping rates move lower. The jobs report (officially "The Employment Situation") measures new jobs created (or lost) each month in addition to the unemployment rate. The job count was much weaker than expected and, although the unemployment rate technically dropped, it did so for the wrong reasons (fewer people considered themselves part of the workforce). In fact, if we adjust for labor force participation, unemployment actually moved higher. The jobs report is the most important economic data as far as bonds are concerned. And because bonds dictate rates, there's a clear connection to the mortgage world. Weaker jobs data = lower rates, all else equal. Today was no exception with MND's 30yr fixed rate index erasing most of yesterday's spike.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07012026 Wed, 01 Jul 2026 19:15:00 GMT 6a45698e484d55c8f061fe49 Matthew Graham In a real sense, today's rate update is more of an addendum to yesterday's rate update. Yesterday afternoon saw heavy, continued selling in the bond market amid a flood of trading associated with the end of the quarter. Because mortgage rates are directly based on the bond market, this resulted in multiple lenders raising rates late in the day (after yesterday's update).  Today has been much calmer by comparison with bonds holding fairly close to yesterday's latest levels after some early weakness. Even so, there was still some weakness for mortgage lenders to account for. From yesterday morning, the average lender is up 0.11% on a top tier 30yr fixed quote.   If we adjust yesterday afternoon to account for the late day reprices, today's rates are, instead, 0.05% higher. Either way, we're currently back in line with the highs from the beginning of last week, but still below the highs from early June or mid-May. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06302026 Tue, 30 Jun 2026 18:39:00 GMT 6a440ebfc30699d717875e68 Matthew Graham Starting last Thursday, mortgage rates have barely budged. In terms of our 30yr fixed index, the maximum day-over-day change has been 0.02% since then. The past 3 business days have seen rates either hold steady or move cautiously lower. Today's rates moved higher, but at just as slow a pace. The underlying bond market primarily took cues from trading motivations that didn't have anything to do with typical considerations like economic data and news headlines. As we discussed last week, some of the world's biggest investment accounts have been in the process of rebalancing their portfolios for the end of Q2. This was helpful for rates last week, but the opposite was true today. To a lesser extent, bonds lost some ground after this morning's job openings data for the month of May. It showed more job openings than the median forecast expected, which is generally bad for bonds/rates, but Thursday's jobs report for June is a more meaningful report with more power to cause volatility. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06292026 Mon, 29 Jun 2026 19:07:00 GMT 6a42c37548426d4ea2ea105e Matthew Graham Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest level since May 14th. Most of the recent drop happened last Wednesday, but each day since then has added a microscopic improvement. Today was no exception with the 30yr fixed rate index falling a mere 0.01%--the lowest increment we measure. The calendar of economic events was completely empty and consequential news headlines were just as scarce. This will change over the next 3 days on at least one front. Big-ticket econ data comes out on each of the next 3 mornings. Thursday's jobs report is typically the most important scheduled monthly data, but each day carries at least some risk for volatility. Why only 3 more days this week? Because Friday is closed for the Independence Day observance. And when the bond market is closed, mortgage lenders don't generate new rate sheets (and typically aren't open to accept new locks). Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06262026 Fri, 26 Jun 2026 19:06:00 GMT 6a3ecee17f19115eae0e9257 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates officially hit their lowest level in more than a month yesterday with MND's 30yr fixed index falling to 6.53% from 6.55% on Wednesday. Today was completely unchanged at 6.53%, thus maintaining the lowest level since May 14th, 2026.  There weren't any dramatic developments behind the scenes in term of economic data or news headlines (not that we'd expect them when rates hold perfectly flat). This week's broader improvement can be attributed to buying demand in the bond market owing to large investors rebalancing their stock/bond portfolios before the end of the quarter. As the quarter officially ends early next week, new volatility could emerge. It could be further compounded by the more active slate of economic data culminating in Thursday's big jobs report--the biggest economic report on any given month. NOTE: the jobs report would normally be out on a Friday, but next Friday is the holiday observance for the 4th of July.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates