http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mortgage-rates Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09112026 Fri, 11 Sep 2026 19:24:00 GMT 6aa45898df44a7792614fb50 Matthew Graham Looked at in a vacuum, and up until the last few hours of the day, Friday was no better or worse than the average day over the past several months. Compared to yesterday morning's levels, the average lender was 0.01% higher--a small enough move to be effectively considered "unchanged."  This expanded to 0.05% in the last few hours as multiple lenders increased rates. In terms of big-picture benchmarks, the increase officially brings rates to their highest levels since early 2025. To be clear, we were just barely lower than May 2025 levels yesterday. Now we're in line February 2025 levels. The intraday market movement was interesting. The bond market (which underlies mortgage rate movement) actually improved this morning even though Fed rate hike expectations increased following a slightly hotter inflation reading in this morning's economic data. This is an uncommon pattern. There are two ways to look at it. First, longer-term rates may have been encouraged by the uptick in Fed rate hike expectations because that provided reassurance that Fed was more likely to take steps to combat higher inflation. In other words, some of the upward pressure in longer-term rates is thought to have been driven by fear of Fed inaction. If this morning's inflation data was hot enough to increase the odds of action, but not so hot as to cause a material change in the inflation outlook, it's the perfectly warm bowl of porridge. In OTHER other words, yes! There's a scenario where longer-term rates (things like mortgages and 5-10yr Treasury yields) actually WANT the shortest-term rates (like the Fed Funds Rate) to move higher. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09102026 Thu, 10 Sep 2026 18:44:00 GMT 6aa2fe34f97464c8eec53496 Matthew Graham You may have seen other headlines today that reference 30yr fixed rates of 6.76%. Those stories would be citing Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey which is an average of the 5 business days (4 in this case, due to the holiday) ending yesterday (September 9th). Because of that methodology, the number lags reality. Today alone, the average lender moved up 0.125% in rate. In addition, Freddie no longer accounts for "points" (additional money paid upfront for a lower rate). In other words, 6.75% with one point is roughly the same rate as 7.00% with no points.  As a reminder, our daily rate index accounts for the impact of points so day to day comparisons are always apples to apples.  With all that in mind, today's average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is up to 7.07% from 6.97% yesterday and 6.89% the day before. This is a substantial 2-day change and the highest rate we've seen since May 21, 2025. While some people are erroneously talking about last night's news regarding $5k payments from the President, there are only two real factors that account for a vast majority of the upward movement. The first was yet another surge in fuel prices. The second was a poorly received Producer Price Index this morning (an inflation report that contributes to the even more important PCE inflation data due out at the end of the month). [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09092026 Wed, 09 Sep 2026 19:07:00 GMT 6aa1b21f6a086af9f1651f45 Matthew Graham What do mortgage rates have to do with Treasuries? Quite a lot, actually. U.S. Treasuries are the bills and bonds issued by the government. In addition to financing government spending, they are also the lifeblood of the financial system. Due to that central role, their liquidity, the immense size of the market, and because they're considered to be "risk free," Treasuries also serve as the baseline for most other interest rates in the U.S. This isn't to say that mortgage lenders simply look at Treasury yields plus a margin to set mortgage rates. But the trading value of Treasuries has a bearing on how mortgage-specific bonds trade. Put most simply, a mortgage bond buyer/seller compares returns between mortgage bonds and Treasuries to get an idea of the relative value of mortgage bonds. This impacts supply and demand such that mortgage rates typically behave very much like medium-term Treasuries. With all that out of the way, we're equipped to understand that any big news for Treasuries (even if it's specific to Treasuries) can have far reaching consequences. Today's big news involved a much-anticipated announcement of the size of the next Treasury buyback program. It's not important to understand the nuts and bolts of that program when it comes to today's mortgage rates. What's important is that the market was expecting a bigger announcement than it got. Even though Treasury buybacks ultimately imply more Treasury sales, they can temporarily boost demand and put downward pressure on rates. If the buyback amount is lower than expected, that means less demand than expected and higher rates, all else equal.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09082026 Tue, 08 Sep 2026 19:09:00 GMT 6aa05f0b0e3835b72e793170 Matthew Graham Top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates started the week right where they were on Friday for the average lender. At 6.89%, we're just a hair below the highest mark since June 2025. In general, rates have been increasing steadily since the Iran war ceasefire ended with the uptick frequently correlating with higher fuel prices. Today's "unchanged" rates require an asterisk. Although mortgage rates are based on bonds and although bonds move constantly throughout the day, mortgage lenders prefer to keep rate changes to a minimum--ideally once a day if the market remains calm enough. This means the bond market can "lead off" in one direction or the other before most mortgage lenders go to the trouble of making mid-day changes. In today's case, bonds have been taking a lead-off in the direction of slightly higher rates. The implication is that tomorrow's rates could be slightly higher unless bonds find a new motivation to improve between now and the time the average lender sets rates for the day (around 10am ET, give or take). Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09042026 Fri, 04 Sep 2026 18:49:00 GMT 6a9b14356a50e3fa81a1552e Matthew Graham Mortgage rates have a long and storied past with the monthly jobs report. Officially titled "The Employment Situation," the Bureau of Labor Statistics' (BLS) jobs report has more power than any other monthly economic report to cause volatility in the rate market over the years. It may have lost some of that capability over the past few years, but it's always worthy of respect. With that in mind, it was an ominous sign for rates when this morning's jobs data came in MUCH stronger than expected. BLS counted 162k new jobs created compared to a median forecast of 56k. On many occasions in the past, the result of such a "beat" would have been a substantial increase in mortgage rates. These days, however, the job count carries a bit less weight than it used to for a variety of reasons. It definitely had an impact today, but a much smaller impact than career rate-watchers may have expected. Average top-tier 30yr fixed rates moved only modestly higher and remained safely below the long-term highs seen on Wednesday. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09032026 Thu, 03 Sep 2026 19:59:00 GMT 6a99d2cb342e879e70ced36e Matthew Graham Mortgage rates finally had a decent day on Thursday after spending the previous three days inching into the highest levels in more than a year. Part of the improvement was due to comments from Fed Governor Chris Waller who said that it wouldn't be necessary to hike rates at the next meeting unless inflation data surprises to the upside. Before that, the underlying bond market was already showing some resilience in overnight trading. The prevailing pattern has been a fairly reliable correlation between bond yields and oil prices. But this time around, yields held fairly steady in the overnight session even though oil prices moved higher. Mortgage rates are based on bonds, and mortgage-specific bonds correlate almost flawlessly with 5-10yr U.S. Treasuries on any given day. The net effect was a return to the week's lowest levels for a top-tier 30yr fixed rate at the average lender.  Good news notwithstanding, risks remain on the horizon. Friday morning brings important economic data in the form of the jobs report. Next week's inflation data will be just as critical. As always, data-related volatility cuts both ways. If it's much weaker than expected, rates would likely continue lower.  But if it's much higher than expected, rates would likely make new highs.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09022026 Wed, 02 Sep 2026 19:08:00 GMT 6a987f3107654ca0d8c9a387 Matthew Graham First things first: when we reference average, daily, top-tier 30yr fixed rates, it is for an ideal scenario that rarely exists in the wild. The average scenario will always involve slightly higher effective rates (i.e. even if the rate is the same as national averages, it would involve additional upfront costs). As a reminder, our daily rate index accounts for upfront costs whereas Freddie Mac's weekly survey rate does not. MBA's weekly rate survey collects separate answers for rates vs upfront costs. Bottom line, while the daily index rose into the 6.9's today for the first time in more than year, many borrowers are already seeing rates at 7% or higher. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-09012026 Tue, 01 Sep 2026 20:02:00 GMT 6a9731396a0c3f9026fa2b32 Matthew Graham Fighting intensified today between the U.S. and Iran. Oil prices moved higher fairly quickly and bond yields followed. This has been a common pattern during the Iran war as higher oil prices imply higher inflation which, in turn, implies higher yields/rates. Yesterday's average top-tier 30yr fixed rate hit the highest levels since June 2025. Today's increase was modest in the bigger picture. At 6.89%, we're still well below that June 2025 high of 6.97%.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08312026 Mon, 31 Aug 2026 20:02:00 GMT 6a95dedee97d5f281579d0c1 Matthew Graham Bonds lost ground today, largely due to mechanical, month-end trading (i.e. not due to economic data, inflation, or news headlines). When bonds lose ground, rates rise, all else equal. Mortgage rates were already fairly close to longer-term highs last week. Today's increase was just enough to nudge the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate to 6.87%--the highest since June 2025. While that sounds fairly gloomy, the average borrower wouldn't see any difference from those seen on July 23rd, 2026. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08282026 Fri, 28 Aug 2026 18:45:00 GMT 6a91d9b9260b93beb9adfdff Matthew Graham Jackson Hole is a place in Wyoming, but it's also shorthand for an annual event where various central bankers get together and talk about monetary policy. The Fed Chair almost always delivers a speech and that speech occasionally causes volatility in the bond market. This year was a classic example. Fed Chair Warsh's speech focused on inflation remaining too high and on the Fed's commitment to getting inflation back down to 2.0% as measured by the annual change in the PCE Price Index (currently at 3.7%). Even if we use the most charitable methods to estimate annual PCE prices, the index would still be in the 2.4-2.6% range. Those details don't really matter for today, however. What matters is that the market took away a hawkish message from Warsh and the bond market reacted immediately. Mortgage rates were fairly flat before that, but the average lender increased mortgage rates in response to the bond market movement seen after Warsh's speech.   The net effect was a move up to 6.81% for the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate--the highest in just over 3 weeks.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates