http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mortgage-rates Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04172026 Fri, 17 Apr 2026 20:06:00 GMT 69e294ce4a73c0343647cff6 Matthew Graham Today was a victory for mortgage rates, but not nearly as much of a victory as the underlying bond market would suggest. The good news is that the end result is the lowest average 30yr fixed rate in just over a month.  The other news isn't bad, per se, but it is a bit confusing.  As we often discuss, mortgage rates are based on bonds because mortgages "turn into" bonds in order to be traded on the secondary market. You don't need to understand that process in detail to accept that it's true.  Case in point, here's a chart* that overlays our average 30yr fixed rate and the most prevalent mortgage-backed security (a bond comprised of a pool of multiple mortgages). Zooming in on Friday, we see bonds breaking lower at a faster pace than mortgage rates. This is actually very normal behavior for mortgage rates--especially when they're falling into the lowest territory of the past few weeks. If the bond market gains are maintained next week, rates should increasingly be willing to close the gap. Conversely, if bonds bounce in the other direction, rates likely will as well, but they'll have some cushion and may not need to bounce as quickly. * in both of today's charts, the right axis shows mortgage-backed securities PRICES. In the bond market, price varies inversely with yield (i.e. higher prices = lower rates). As such, the right axis is inverted (higher values at the bottom) in order to highlight the correlation with rates on the left axis.  Otherwise, the chart would look like a Rorschach test and it would be impossible to detect these subtle changes.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04162026 Thu, 16 Apr 2026 19:52:00 GMT 69e13ec999213054f74f136a Matthew Graham On average, today's top-tier 30 year fixed mortgage rates are exactly the same as yesterday's. Rates are driven by the bond market and bonds continue waiting for bigger developments in the Iran war. At the moment, the market is in a sort of limbo as time remains on the 2-week ceasefire. In the meantime, there's a multitude of lower consequence war-related headlines on any given day. These have caused a bit of back and forth volatility in bonds, but not enough directional movement to nudge rates very far in either direction since Tuesday.   Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04152026 Wed, 15 Apr 2026 19:20:00 GMT 69dfe650de0d9c5b480ff48f Matthew Graham On Tuesday, the average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate hit the lowest level in exactly 4 weeks. If you're not interested in splitting hairs, today's rates are essentially the same. Although our official average is 0.01% higher, that's such a small change that many of today's rate quotes will look the same as yesterday's.  In the bigger picture, these rates are about halfway between the highs seen in late March and the lowest rates in more than 3 years seen at the end of February. The bond market (which dictates rates) remains focused on developments in the Iran war, but there's an ever-higher bar for relevant news. At this point the average war update is not having a noticeable impact. It will take a material change in the status of the war and a clear response in energy prices to catch the bond market's attention. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04142026 Tue, 14 Apr 2026 19:23:00 GMT 69de979e5e27dd8e6c2c9ea5 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates had their best day of the month so far with the top tier 30yr fixed rate falling 0.08% for the average lender to the lowest levels in exactly 4 weeks. Today's improvement is a bit bigger than today's bond market movement would suggest. The discrepancy is due to timing. Bonds were improving fairly steadily since yesterday morning and the average lender didn't adjust yesterday's rates in response to the bond market improvement in the last few hours of the day. As such, that improvement was tacked on to today's. As for the drivers of the market movement, it's the same old story since the beginning of March. The Iran war is the primary source of motivation and oil prices are frequently the best correlated indicator for bond yields and interest rates. Around 10am this morning, oil dropped and bonds improved after a senior administration official said "a lot is happening today and tomorrow. We have all the ingredients of a deal, but it's not all there yet." Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04132026 Mon, 13 Apr 2026 19:30:00 GMT 69dd45a3da4a80352f2b8a07 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates are based on movement in the bond market and although bonds experienced some volatility in response to Iran war news over the weekend, they ended up in similar territory to Friday morning. As such, it's no surprise to see mortgage rates in similar territory as well.  The average lender began the day 0.02% higher than Friday, but bonds improved during the day and some mortgage lenders were able to make small downward adjustments mid-day. This keep the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate just below 6.40% for the third straight day. From 5.99% in late February, rates spiked as high as 6.64% on March 27th. They've fallen noticeably but moderately since then, but the recent trajectory has been flattening out as the market waits to see how de-escalation may play out. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04102026 Fri, 10 Apr 2026 17:44:00 GMT 69d938fbd3650058e5a24b36 Matthew Graham If we're splitting hairs, today's average mortgage rates are technically higher than yesterday's, but the change is so small that it's just as fair to say that rates are flat. This closes out a week with surprisingly low volatility compared to that seen in March. In part, this can be attributed to longer-term oil prices being less volatile after moving down from their highs in late March. It's also a reflection of uncertainty surrounding the outcome of the Iran war. The war (specifically, the economic/inflation implications) continue to be primary source of motivation for rates even in the presence of economic data that would normally have an impact. Reason being: we haven't yet received big-ticket econ reports that have had a chance to bake in too much of the war's impact. Today's CPI inflation data was one of the first, but it came in close enough to forecasts to avoid making a strong case for rate volatility.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04092026 Thu, 09 Apr 2026 19:25:00 GMT 69d7ffba236f973dbdab5974 Matthew Graham Many borrowers will see no difference between yesterday and today's mortgage rate quotes. The average lender moved just a hair lower. Once again, the rate market is responding to war-related headlines and their impact on oil prices. Rates don't always care what oil prices are doing, but at present, there's more correlation than normal due to the inflation implications from a protracted conflict. Inflation is the true concern for bonds/rates when it comes to oil. Today's headlines involved various de-escalation anecdotes, mainly centering on Israel and Lebanon. Prior to those headlines, rates were set to match yesterday's levels. Afterward, the average lender was 0.02% lower for a top tier 30yr fixed rate. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04082026 Wed, 08 Apr 2026 19:27:00 GMT 69d6b2440f11bcec23e3fcda Matthew Graham It's a fluid situation in financial markets on Wednesday. The 2-week ceasefire in the Iran war caused a big reaction last night, but the benefit to the bond market (bonds dictate rates) has been increasingly wiped out during domestic hours.  If we measure the reversal versus yesterday's closing levels at 5pm ET, the reversal is almost complete. But bonds were already rallying in the afternoon due to expectations for the official ceasefire news. All that to say, we're still in noticeably better shape than we were mid-day yesterday, but the overall improvement is smaller than most borrowers would expect. In fact, the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is just barely at the low end of April's range at 6.40% vs the previous low of 6.41% on April 2nd. Earlier today, it was as low as 6.38%, but mortgage lenders made mid-day changes in response to bond market deterioration.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04072026 Tue, 07 Apr 2026 19:14:00 GMT 69d55a4dea3f6b419f5a7e43 Matthew Graham In stark contrast to the entire month of March, April's mortgage rate volatility has been downright boring. To put this in context, the average top tier 30yr fixed rate rose a substantial 0.65% by March 27th. In the first five business days of April, they've held inside a range of just 0.04%. Today did nothing to expand that range although it did leave rates microscopically higher versus yesterday. The Iran war continues to be the dominant source of inspiration for the financial markets, including the bond market that underlies interest rates. Given that tonight brings a deadline for a potentially major escalation in the war, there's a risk of volatility heading into tomorrow. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-04062026 Mon, 06 Apr 2026 19:11:00 GMT 69d407da10613c3ee1692b12 Matthew Graham It was an uneventful day for mortgage rates with the average lender close enough to Friday's levels that borrowers would not see much of a difference between the two days. The bond market (which underlies and dictates rate movement) was still in quasi-holiday mode as most overseas markets were closed for holidays. Financial markets (including bonds) continue taking cues from major developments in the Iran war, but today ended up being more about waiting for those events based on Trump's deadline for Iran to reopen The Strait of Hormuz or face major escalation. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates