http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mortgage-rates Mortgage Rates Predictions and Analysis https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05292026 Fri, 29 May 2026 17:34:00 GMT 6a19d3161b1e08268fb58a8b Matthew Graham While there are still a few hours left in the trading day, it's a near certainty that this week will end with mortgage rates at meaningfully lower levels compared to last Friday. Today is only adding modestly to that trend, but that makes it the 8th straight business day where rates have either held steady or moved lower. On that note, it's possibly worth considering that these sorts of winning streaks have definite life spans. We've certainly seen stretches of more than 10 business days without any upward movement in rates, but they're very rare. Even then, if the streak were to end on Monday or Tuesday, it may only be a temporary blip before more improvement. The bigger-picture issue remains the state of the Iran war. If it officially ends, rates likely have more room to improve. If hostilities re-escalate, rates could move back up into the recently higher range. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05282026 Thu, 28 May 2026 19:08:00 GMT 6a1893c26a037b0210bee693 Matthew Graham We were close yesterday and we officially arrived today. Mortgage rates may still be elevated compared to almost all of the past 10 months, but they're the lowest they've been since May 14th.  This was accomplished with a modest drop versus yesterday's levels after another round of news on a potential U.S./Iran peace deal. This morning's inflation data also helped the underlying bond market find its footing. In terms of nuts and bolts, top tier 30yr fixed rates fell to 6.59% for the average lender, down from 6.61% yesterday and from 6.75% last Tuesday. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05272026 Wed, 27 May 2026 19:47:00 GMT 6a174b044d1c38085e6440ee Matthew Graham Early in the trading session, the bond market began improving in response to more updates on a potential Iran peace deal. When bonds improve, rates fall, but the initial reaction proved short-lived.  Thankfully, the reversal didn't do any new damage. This allowed the average lender to keep rates right in line with yesterday's 6.61% for a top-tier 30 year fixed. You'd have to go back to May 14th to see anything lower. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05262026 Tue, 26 May 2026 18:48:00 GMT 6a15ecc84e3491fc4787c8bc Matthew Graham Although mortgage rates are still relatively close to their highest levels in 9 months, they continue moving lower after hitting those highs as the beginning of last week. Today's improvement follows news over the weekend that the U.S. and Iran are even closer to agreeing on a framework that would end the war. The war remains a key source of volatility for rates and other financial markets. In general, escalation and/or delays in the peace process are bad for rates. De-escalation and improved peace prospects are good for rates. While none of the news of the past 48 hours guarantees a speedy end to hostilities, the market viewed it as a step in the right direction. Top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rates fell 0.04% for the average lender to hit 6.61%. Last Monday's level was 6.75%. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05222026 Fri, 22 May 2026 17:19:00 GMT 6a1094f7c712db9f04c32d56 Matthew Graham Mortgage lenders rely on the bond market to generate mortgage rates. In addition to being fully closed on Monday for Memorial Day, bonds also close 3 hours earlier than normal on the preceding Friday (i.e. today). The abbreviated trading session was fairly uneventful for rates despite some back-and-forth volatility in response to diplomacy headlines surrounding Iran/US peace negotiations. The flow of news resulted in better bond market levels early in the day and a pull-back in the late AM hours. After accounting for some lenders' mid-day rate changes, the average lender ended the day right in line with yesterday's levels which were also incidentally right in line with last Friday's levels.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05212026 Thu, 21 May 2026 18:40:00 GMT 6a0f55eac946c2343380cd2a Matthew Graham After posting a decent recovery from 9-month highs yesterday, it looked like mortgage rates were destined to bounce back toward slightly higher levels today. In fact, when lenders released their initial rates this morning, the average 30yr fixed rate was indeed moderately higher. But shortly after 1pm ET, news broke regarding additional progress in the Iran war peace process. Much like many similar headlines of late, this one could easily unravel in the coming hours, but the bond market responded positively enough to erase the day's losses. In general, when bonds are gaining, rates move lower. Today's intraday gains allowed lenders to "re-price" to lower rates. The average lender was just slightly lower than yesterday's latest levels as of 3pm ET. On the plus side, lower is lower, and that's a victory for today. On the other hand, rates are still very close to long-term highs in the bigger picture. Additionally, and to reiterate a point above, we've seen these sorts of news stories come and go with markets ultimately erasing the initial move after the next set of headlines push the narrative back in the other direction. Bottom line: this was a decent intraday gift, but we're not viewing it as a definitive pivot point in rate trends.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05202026 Wed, 20 May 2026 18:58:00 GMT 6a0e0775c631c9085d7ebbac Matthew Graham Wednesday brought some much-needed relief for the mortgage market after rates surged to new 9 month highs of 6.75% yesterday. Whereas that rate spike was decoupled from the prevailing narrative of war-related headlines, today's recovery was quite the opposite. Newswires came out shortly after 10am ET that suggested the U.S. and Iran are nearing a final draft of a peace agreement. While such news has been prone to correction and revision, the market was nonetheless willing to respond quickly and rather forcefully. Oil prices dropped sharply with Treasury yields in tow. In the bond market, "yield" is another word for "rate." And because mortgage pricing is directly dictated by mortgage-specific bonds, when yields are falling, mortgage rates will almost always be falling as well. The average lender fully erased yesterday's rate spike, ultimately making it back below the levels seen on Monday afternoon. Granted, Monday's levels were still the highest in many months at the time, but we have to start somewhere. At the very least, today's market movement reiterates the fact that rates will likely make an even better recovery when the war is officially over. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05192026 Tue, 19 May 2026 19:28:00 GMT 6a0cbc43045fe12ce3cc32d7 Matthew Graham It was another rough day for the bond market and, thus, for interest rates. Investors aggressively sold bonds in the first 2 hours of trading, taking 10yr Treasury yields to the highest level in more than a year. Mortgage-specific bonds have been doing better versus Treasuries in recent months thanks to increased purchase demand from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. All else equal, higher demand for mortgage bonds = lower rates, relatively. In the current case, it means mortgage rates haven't moved up as much as Treasury yields over the past 6 months. That said, rates have still definitely moved higher. Today's top tier 30yr fixed rate is up to 6.75% for the average lender--the highest since July 2025, and a whopping 0.75% higher since before the Iran war began. This makes it the fastest rate spike seen since late 2024. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05182026 Mon, 18 May 2026 19:34:00 GMT 6a0b6bb6b92937618432b2b4 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates hit their highest levels in more than 9 months at the end of last week. Now today, they've edged slightly higher yet again with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate at 6.68% versus 6.65% on Friday. This wasn't necessarily destined to be the case today. In fact the day began with the average lender unchanged. But the underlying market remains highly attuned to breaking news on the Iran war. Earlier in the day, that news was helpful for rates as it spoke to the possibility of compromise on a peace deal. Subsequent headlines refuted the initial news, thus pushing the financial market back in the other direction (i.e. toward higher rates). The result was that the average lender recalled their initial rate offerings and re-released higher rates. Things were on track to be even worse this afternoon when Trump said he was cancelling a planned attack and that serious negotiations were taking place. This helped bonds recover some of the earlier losses, but not enough for lenders to make any friendly rate adjustments today.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05152026 Fri, 15 May 2026 16:40:00 GMT 6a07510e6d2ba55fbb87640b Matthew Graham Mortgage rates are driven by bonds and the bond market hoped to see more evidence of shift toward peace during the 2-day Trump/Xi meeting in China. As soon as Trump got back on the plane to head home, bonds began tanking (i.e. jumping to higher yields). When bond yields spike, mortgage rates follow, and today is no exception. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate is up to 6.62% this morning, right in line with levels seen on March 26th and 27th and the highest since August 1st. If there's a silver lining, it's that mortgage rates aren't higher. Much of the credit goes to the ramp in purchases of mortgage-backed debt by Fannie and Freddie. The more mortgage debt they buy, the better it is for mortgage rates relative to benchmarks like U.S. Treasuries. For instance, Treasuries are now well above the levels seen in late March and in line with levels from the first half of 2025 when mortgage rates were 7% instead of 6.62%. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/rates