http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n Mortgage Newsletters Archive https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260821 Fri, 21 Aug 2026 04:00:00 GMT Fri, 21 Aug 2026 04:00:00 GMT https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260821 Residential construction pulled back in July as housing starts and completions declined from June levels, while building permits rebounded. The latest Census Bureau data suggests builders remained cautious about active construction, even as the increase in permits pointed to somewhat stronger activity ahead. Privately owned housing starts fell 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.239 million , down 13.5% from the July 2025 pace. Single-family starts declined 9.9% to 808k , while starts for buildings containing five units or more fell to 421k . Building permits reversed course as well, increasing 5.0% from June to an annual rate of 1.443 million , and were 3.1% above the July 2025 rate. Single-family authorizations rose 2.5% to 894k , while permits Mortgage News Daily http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/newsletter https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260820 Thu, 20 Aug 2026 04:00:00 GMT Thu, 20 Aug 2026 04:00:00 GMT https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260820 While Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey may show rates moving slightly lower this week, today's rates are actually higher than they were at the same time last week (6.76% vs 6.69%). Financial news continued to focus on yesterday's announcement of Treasury buybacks after Secretary Bessent spoke on CNBC this morning, but today's bump in rates had more to do with fuel prices. Treasury yields serve as an almost perfect proxy for intraday rate movement with 10yr yields often seen as the most common at-a-glance benchmark for mortgage rate movement (i.e. they tend to move in the same direction by roughly similar amounts). 10yr yields and oil prices were at the lows of the day at 1am. Oil rose fairly quickly through 8am ET and Treasury yields followed. Both peaked at exactly the same t Mortgage News Daily http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/newsletter https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260819 Wed, 19 Aug 2026 04:00:00 GMT Wed, 19 Aug 2026 04:00:00 GMT https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260819 Mortgage rates dropped on Wednesday due to a combination of lower oil prices and the announcement of changes to Treasury's bond buyback program. The oil price angle is easy to understand. Throughout the war, higher fuel prices have caused volatility in inflation expectations and inflation is a critical consideration for bonds/rates.  The Treasury buyback news is more complex and highly oversimplified by the average piece of media coverage. Here are the details that matter: The original buyback program began in 2024 under the Biden admin when Yellen was the Treasury secretary It is not quantitative easing or "new money creation."  Treasury gets money from issuing bonds or via other federal receipts (taxes, tariffs, etc) The program was continued/expanded under Trump/ Mortgage News Daily http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/newsletter https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260818 Tue, 18 Aug 2026 04:00:00 GMT Tue, 18 Aug 2026 04:00:00 GMT https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260818 Mortgage rates rose for the third straight day on Tuesday with the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moving up a modest 0.02% to 6.75%. Notably, the bond market was actually in slightly better shape compared to yesterday--something that would normally be good news for rates. So what's the catch? As is often the case when bonds and mortgages disagree, the x factor is timing. Mortgage lenders prefer to release rates once per day (usually around 10am ET) and they only change rates if the underlying bond market makes a big enough move in either direction.   Bonds lost ground yesterday, but not enough for the average lender to go to the trouble of raising the rates set earlier in the day. As such, lenders had to adjust for that bond market weakness with this morning's offerings. Ironica Mortgage News Daily http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/newsletter https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260817 Mon, 17 Aug 2026 04:00:00 GMT Mon, 17 Aug 2026 04:00:00 GMT https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260817 After ending last week near the lowest level since July 17th, mortgage rates are moving up to start the new week. Motivations are familiar. Escalation in U.S./Iran tensions is pushing fuel prices higher and bond yields continue to correlate. Bond yields correlate with consumer interest rates with near perfection. In mortgage-specific terms, the average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moved up 0.02% today to 6.73%. This is still much lower than the most recent high of 6.85%, but not quite as low as last Thursday's 6.69%. Mortgage News Daily http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/newsletter https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260814 Fri, 14 Aug 2026 04:00:00 GMT Fri, 14 Aug 2026 04:00:00 GMT https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260814 First, the bad news: mortgage rates ended the day just a hair higher compared to Thursday, but the change was so small that many borrowers will see little--if any--difference in pricing. Now the good news: apart from yesterday afternoon, today's rates would still be the lowest in 4 weeks (i.e. you'd have to go back to July 17th to see anything lower). Lastly, some news that's neither good nor bad, but simply a bit confusing. Today's higher rates followed this morning's Retail Sales report which came in much weaker than expected. Conventional wisdom would have suggested that weaker data coincides with lower rates.  One issue is that Retail Sales is not in the same league as top tier economic reports like the inflation data seen earlier this week or the jobs report seen last Frid Mortgage News Daily http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/newsletter https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260813 Thu, 13 Aug 2026 04:00:00 GMT Thu, 13 Aug 2026 04:00:00 GMT https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260813 Mortgage rates dropped noticeably on Thursday on a combination of lower oil prices and a lower inflation reading via the Producer Price Index (PPI). Rates are driven by bonds and bonds are highly responsive to the outlook for inflation and the economy. The Iran war caused inflation implications to spike and the periodic relief in fuel prices has coincided with bond market improvement (and lower rates). The official inflation data is just another form of the same benefit. Fuel prices are just one aspect of inflation--albeit a critical one, but they're more of a leading indicator. In contrast, big government data like PPI and yesterday's CPI (Consumer Price Index) help the market more accurately measure the true impact of fuel prices. PPI was only slightly lower than expected, but t Mortgage News Daily http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/newsletter https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260812 Wed, 12 Aug 2026 04:00:00 GMT Wed, 12 Aug 2026 04:00:00 GMT https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260812 Mortgage lenders set rates around 10am ET every day, but the bond market dictates the day to day changes, and bonds were on the move throughout the overnight trading hours. Granted, the movement wasn't extreme, but much like yesterday, it suggested a bit of optimism heading into this morning's main event: the release of July's Consumer Price Index (CPI).  CPI is one of the two big inflation reports on any given month (the other being PCE) and it has more potential to cause a reaction because it comes out 2 weeks before PCE. Given that last month's CPI showed a sharp drop in inflation and that July's fuel prices had bounced back up, the market was very focused on what the data would actually reflect. As it happened, forecasters nailed it. All the top-line numbers were right in line w Mortgage News Daily http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/newsletter https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260811 Tue, 11 Aug 2026 04:00:00 GMT Tue, 11 Aug 2026 04:00:00 GMT https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260811 It ended up being a remarkably uneventful day for mortgage rates . Some lenders were slightly higher than yesterday. Others were roughly unchanged. The difference came down to whether the lender in question raised rates yesterday afternoon. What does this mean? Lenders prefer to set rates once per day around 10am ET. But if the underlying bond market makes a big enough move, lenders can change rates during the day. Bonds lost just enough ground yesterday for some lenders to raise rates. Contrast that to today where virtually every lender maintained the same levels throughout. Tomorrow morning brings the latest release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This is one of the most important pieces of monthly economic data as far as rates are concerned. There's no way to know how it will Mortgage News Daily http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/newsletter https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260810 Mon, 10 Aug 2026 04:00:00 GMT Mon, 10 Aug 2026 04:00:00 GMT https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/newsletter/n/20260810 As of last Friday, average top-tier mortgage rates hit their lowest levels since July 20th. If they'd managed to drop even 0.01% today, it would have been a new 3-week low.  As it stands, rates moved modestly higher in response to higher oil prices. Throughout the Iran war, oil and rates have had a broadly strong correlation because oil informs inflation expectations and inflation is a key input for the rate market. Even after today's rise, rates remain much closer to the lower end of the range over the past 3 weeks. Logically, any positive developments in the war or diplomacy should result in lower rates. Beyond that, there's separate volatility potential related to inflation reports that come out later this week, but as always, that could be for better or worse depending on the Mortgage News Daily http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/newsletter