http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mbs Mortgage Rates Blog https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-08212026 Fri, 21 Aug 2026 19:36:27 GMT 6a88b7dca6791958c59af607 Matthew Graham Incidental Weakness. Bigger Considerations on The Horizon Without any data or compelling market movers, bonds came into the day light on inspiration. Low volume/liquidity left the door open for any determined traders to have a bigger-than-normal influence on the market. That arguably happened between 9am and 10:30am ET with both stocks and bonds losing ground simultaneously. This coincided perfectly with an uptick in Fed rate hike expectations seen via near-term Fed Funds Futures. Market Movement Recap 08:34 AM Sideways to slightly stronger overnight. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.697. 10:34 AM MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 2.7bps at 4.728 01:47 PM MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 3.9bps at 4.741 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-08212026 Fri, 21 Aug 2026 13:29:44 GMT 6a886124a6791958c59a49bc Matthew Graham Bonds were a hair stronger overnight and are now a hair weaker at 9:15am ET. They may flip back and forth a few more times before the close. Ultimately, data-free summertime Fridays are fairly random events. If no big players have big intentions, they can fizzle sideways. But due to lower participation, if big trades come through, they can have a bigger impact than normal. As long as yields remain in the prevailing consolidation pattern, nothing of high consequence is happening. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-08202026 Thu, 20 Aug 2026 21:08:57 GMT 6a877b74a6791958c598bab2 Matthew Graham Tune Out The Noise Yesterday's Treasury buyback announcement and today's comments from Bessent make for good drama in financial news, but the actual market impact had run its course within minutes of the initial announcement and we haven't seen solid evidence that the market has continued to care. Rather, the ample evidence is that an overnight oil price spike pushed bond yields higher. Peaks and valleys aligned perfectly. Elevated corporate issuance lingers constantly in the background causing broad elevation in bonds, but not much of an intraday impulse (even after an afternoon announcement of a big Broadcom bond offering in the pipeline).  Econ Data / Events Continued Claims (Aug)/08 1799.0K vs 1790K f'cast, 1777K prev Jobless Claims (Aug)/15 206.0K vs 210K f'cast, 209K prev Philly Fed Business Index (Aug) 47.4 vs 25 f'cast, 41.4 prev Market Movement Recap 08:52 AM Weaker overnight. 10yr up 4.5bps at 4.691 and MBS down just over a quarter point.  10:52 AM MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 4.4bps at 4.69 03:07 PM MBS down 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr up 4.7bps at 4.693 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-08202026 Thu, 20 Aug 2026 13:34:21 GMT 6a8710d0a6791958c597e7f7 Matthew Graham The correlation between bonds and fuel prices was already creeping back into the picture yesterday. After the Treasury buyback announcement got all of the morning's attention, fuel prices guided the ebbs and flows in the second half of the day. Now today, we're fully back to regularly scheduled programming and there are only so many shows. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-08192026 Wed, 19 Aug 2026 20:18:55 GMT 6a861e3ca6791958c5963815 Matthew Graham AM Rally Ultimately Sticks With Help From Oil To be clear, most of today's rally is attributable to the news on the Treasury buyback program discussed in the morning commentary. Today's consumer rate commentary also has a useful set of bullet points to recap the changes. Ultimately, the buyback news simply meant that the shortest-term debt suffered at the expense of longer-term debt. To put this in perspective, consider that 30yr yields are almost 10bps lower than they were at the open whereas 2yr yields are actually a few bps higher. If today's news was truly akin to QE or any sort of accommodation goal, we would not be seeing such trade-offs in the yield curve. Last but not least, oil prices made a round trip today from the lows of the day this morning at 8:35am to highs at 1pm and back down near the lows by the close. That ebb and flow coincided with intraday bond market volatility almost perfectly.   Market Movement Recap 09:29 AM sharp gains after TSY buyback announcement. 10yr down 6.2bps at 4.643 and MBS up a quarter point. 11:59 AM Off the best levels. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 5.4bps at 4.652 01:18 PM MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.9bps at 4.677 03:55 PM Back at stronger levels. MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 6.2bps at 4.644 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-08192026 Wed, 19 Aug 2026 14:21:43 GMT 6a85cb08a6791958c595939c Matthew Graham At 8:30am, Treasury announced it would double the size of the existing buyback program from $2 to $4 billion for 10-30yr maturities. This sounds like a big deal, but it's only really a medium deal. It's not QE and it never was. Treasury has been conducting buyback operations for more than 2 years and the primary purpose is to support LIQUIDITY in the bond market rather than to influence yield levels. Nonetheless, the bond market can't help but experience some impact to yield when these things are announced/changed simply because it affects the composition of buying demand. Specifically, if Treasury is buying illiquid, older securities from sellers who might have otherwise not even tried to sell them. This frees up their balance sheet space to do "other stuff" in the bond market ranging from "buying more short-term Treasury debt" to simply serving as another source of general liquidity at a time where liquidity is a steadily increasing concern. The following table is from a recent report to the Treasury Borrowing Advising Committee. It shows a huge surplus of dealers looking to sell bonds in the 10-30yr range. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-08182026 Tue, 18 Aug 2026 20:25:14 GMT 6a84cde8a6791958c593d328 Matthew Graham Boring Day But At Least Bonds Turned Green Tuesday offered remarkably of interest or consequence for the bond market. The most notable development was the brief visit to 4.75% in 10yr yields followed by the emergence of the quintessential "dip buyer" (i.e. "hey look... yields are high enough again that I think I'm going to buy some Treasuries"). The post-9:30am timing adds emphasis to that mentality among the retail investor community. Apart from that, there were no obvious motivations or relevant data points. Wednesday suffers a similar absence of scheduled events with the only exception being the Fed Minutes release at 2pm ET.  Econ Data / Events Building Permits (Jul) 1.443M vs 1.37M f'cast, 1.374M prev Housing starts number mm (Jul) 1.239M vs 1.35M f'cast, 1.427M prev Import prices mm (Jul) -0.4% vs 0.1% f'cast, 0.3% prev Market Movement Recap 09:17 AM Slightly weaker overnight and sideways since then. 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.74 and MBS down an eighth of a point. 12:51 PM MBS unchanged and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.71 02:37 PM MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1.6bps at 4.706 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-08182026 Tue, 18 Aug 2026 14:26:45 GMT 6a847ab4a6791958c5932dbc Matthew Graham Big picture momentum has been calmly but clearly skewed toward higher yields for almost 10 months. There have been a few attempts to bounce at technical ceilings along the way up from 4.0% 10yr yields (4.3%, 4.42%, and 4.75%). August has been mostly sideways near the longer-term highs, but the first two days of this week have set up another challenge of the 4.75% technical ceiling. From a simple "value buying" standpoint, there's always some magical line in the sand where investors will conclude yields are high enough to constitute a good buying opportunity. Over the past several years, this magic ceiling has ranged between 4.7 and 5.0. We've definitely seen some value buying in August for similar reasons, and 4.75% has filled that role so far this morning. Bottom line: bonds are back to unchanged after 10s hit 4.748% before the open. There's no other obvious way to justify the recovery apart from "dip buying."  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-08172026 Mon, 17 Aug 2026 19:00:01 GMT 6a83687ca6791958c591456f Matthew Graham War Headlines Pushing Oil and Yields Higher Some summertime Mondays are slow and uneventful. Some see brisk movement. Today's was somewhere in between. There was modest pressure at the outset following headlines about Iran planning to escalate hostilities. The sharpest increase in oil prices coincided with Iran seizing a UAE tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. 10yr yields followed and hit the highs of the day shortly thereafter. Bottom line: fairly straightforward day, even if moderately unpleasant for fans of low rates.  Econ Data / Events NY Fed Manufacturing 20.6 vs 11 f'cast, 15.6 prev Market Movement Recap 09:21 AM MBS down and eighth and 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.707 11:02 AM MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1bp at 4.702 01:15 PM MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.712 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-08172026 Mon, 17 Aug 2026 13:43:14 GMT 6a831ea8a6791958c590b109 Matthew Graham It's just another day in post-Iran-war 2026. As such, bonds are taking cues from fuel price volatility which is in turn taking cues from the latest war-related headlines. In this morning's installment, there were several headlines around 8:30am that didn't help. The most relevant update involved Iran saying it was shifting to an offensive strategy and was setting a deadline for the U.S. to implement the ceasefire memo before escalating. This made for a quick, obvious, but relatively small pop in bond yields at the time. With that, we're starting the day in slightly weaker territory as yields nudge up against longer-term ceilings. Notably, short term yields are unchanged to slightly stronger as Fed rate expectations continue to benefit from last week's inflation data. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs