http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mbs Mortgage Rates Blog https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-05292026 Fri, 29 May 2026 20:02:14 GMT 6a19ffb8a6791958c5e72732 Matthew Graham Markets Were Skeptical of Mid-Day Peace Headlines and That Was a Good Instinct A few hours into the trading session, newswires came out that seemed to offer the best hopes of a peace deal yet. Specifically, it said that Trump was in the situation room to make a final determination on the peace deal and that issues required for the infamous one page memo had already been agreed upon. Markets were surprisingly cautious about reading too much into that, although it briefly took yields to their lowest levels of the week. By the end of the day, we learned that no decision had been made and negotiations weren't any farther along than already assumed based on the week's earlier "close to signing the memo" news. Bonds faded back toward opening levels to end the day roughly unchanged. Next week brings more headline-watching as well as the month's biggest slate of domestic econ data. Econ Data / Events Wholesale Inventories 0.5 vs 0.8 f'cast, 1.3 prev Chicago PMI 62.7 vs 50.5 f'cast Market Movement Recap 08:33 AM Fairly flat overnight and little-changed to start. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr unchanged at 4.445 10:57 AM Gaining ground after Trump "final decision pending" headlines. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.436 02:24 PM Fairly flat. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down half a bp at 4.438 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-05292026 Fri, 29 May 2026 14:03:21 GMT 6a19ab58a6791958c5e68089 Matthew Graham Bonds were flat overnight for a change, with just a bit of 2-way volatility but no notable directional movement. Without any new or interesting war-related headlines, what else can we even discuss in May, 2026? There's some econ data in the form of the highest Chicago PMI reading since 2022.  At 62.7 vs a 50.5 forecast, it absolutely obliterated expectations, but even that was worth less than 1bp of weakness in 10yr yields. Both MBS and Treasuries remain close enough to unchanged levels as we head into the 10am ET trading hour. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-05282026 Thu, 28 May 2026 19:46:32 GMT 6a18aab4a6791958c5e4b137 Matthew Graham Spoiler Alert: Yes, It Was War Headlines Need a way to explain overnight weakness in the bond market? War headlines. Need to know why bonds rallied sharply just after 10am ET to hit the best levels in 2 weeks? Yep, more war headlines. Granted, the 8:30am econ data was not completely ignored. A slightly softer-than-expected PCE inflation number helped bonds get back to unchanged levels, but a substantial majority of the day's volume followed the 10am news that essentially suggested the peace deal was approved, pending Trump's final sign off. Later in the day, separate newswires suggested Iran hadn't fully signed off, but no one seemed to care. Day over day gains were mild in the bigger picture, but resulted in the best trading levels in 2 weeks by the 3pm close.  Econ Data / Events Continued Claims (May)/16 1786.0K vs 1780K f'cast, 1782K prev Core CapEx (Apr) -1.1% vs 0.4% f'cast, 3.4% prev Core PCE (m/m) (Apr) 0.2% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.3% prev Core PCE (y/y) (Apr) 3.3% vs 3.3% f'cast, 3.2% prev Core PCE Prices QoQQ1 4.4% vs 4.3% f'cast, 2.7% prev Corporate profitsQ1 -0.4% vs 5.7% f'cast, 5.7% prev Durable goods (Apr) 7.9% vs 3.5% f'cast, 0.8% prev GDPQ1 1.6% vs 2.0% f'cast, 0.5% prev GDP Final SalesQ1 1.5% vs 1.6% f'cast, 0.3% prev Jobless Claims (May)/23 215.0K vs 211K f'cast, 209K prev PCE (y/y) (Apr) 3.8% vs 3.8% f'cast, 3.5% prev PCE prices (m/m) (Apr) 0.4% vs 0.5% f'cast, 0.7% prev Market Movement Recap 08:19 AM Weaker overnight on reports of ongoing hostilities in Iran. MBS down over an eighth of a point and 10yr up 2.3bps at 4.507 09:17 AM Back near unchanged after data-driven rally. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.479 10:59 AM quick rally on "deal" reports and a bit of pull back on "yeah but" reports. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.46 01:02 PM Near best levels. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.4bps at 4.45 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-05282026 Thu, 28 May 2026 13:31:00 GMT 6a1852d0a6791958c5e403e0 Matthew Graham There's a supertanker load of data this morning with some apparently interesting results, but the market remains focused primarily on supertankers being able to transport oil. Those prospects were dealt a fresh blow overnight as both sides reported renewed attacks. Bond yields and oil prices jumped clearly in response, but not in an overly aggressive fashion. And to be fair to this morning's data, it has actually been up to the task of helping yields drop about 2bps back to unchanged levels. Primary credit would have to go to lower than expected monthly PCE prices. Even though PCE is trending in the wrong direction, the monthly rate came in at 0.4 vs 0.5 forecasts and 0.7 previously. Any time PCE comes out, there's some buzz on the implications of earnings versus inflation. This time around, the temptation is to conclude that lower personal income cannot support inflation-adjusted spending. And while there's no doubt that lower income inhibits spending that would otherwise be seen, longer term data and bigger-picture numbers suggest we shouldn't count on it as some mythical inflation-fighting hero. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-05272026 Wed, 27 May 2026 20:03:24 GMT 6a175cb8a6791958c5e246e8 Matthew Graham In a Shocking Twist, Bonds Relive Another Groundhog Day The present week began on a stronger note thanks to news that came out on Monday regarding a U.S./Iran peace deal being within reach. This time around, it was the fact that Iran's state TV shared a draft of the framework for the memo that serves as the stop-gap peace deal while full details are negotiated. It turns out that this draft wasn't obviously different from the one referenced on Monday, but markets remain cautiously willing to react to the same repackaged news time and again as if repetition increases the chance that the peace deal will eventually become official. Bonds were a bit more skeptical than oil prices, but ultimately ended the day without losing any ground. Market Movement Recap 08:27 AM modest overnight gains and some extra buying just now after yet another round of peace deal headlines. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 3bps at 4.459 10:49 AM sideways volatility. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.5bps at 4.472 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-05272026 Wed, 27 May 2026 12:50:44 GMT 6a16f6c4a6791958c5e17e0f Matthew Graham It seems that we've seen slight variations on the same peace deal news for the past several days. That's probably because there is an actual peace deal that's probably near the actual finish line and that's probably why the market is actually willing to trade it. This morning's headlines were as simple as any recent example: Iran's state TV obtained a draft of the peace framework with the key inclusion being a commitment to restoring commercial traffic through Hormuz within one month. Bond yields dropped about 2bps on the news and MBS rallied about an eighth of a point--fairly tame, but clearly connected. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-05262026 Tue, 26 May 2026 19:32:03 GMT 6a160430a6791958c5dfc732 Matthew Graham Good Reminder That The Market Gets to Decide What Matters If oil, Treasuries, stocks, and the rest of the market were completely closed, and if we could only estimate the probable impact of the news that's been available over the past 3 days, it would be hard to make that case that bond yields should be any lower than they were on Friday. In fact, some of the newswires (the ones citing various military clashes) might lead one to suspect yields should be higher. But here we are with 10s down more than 6bps and MBS up almost half a point just after 3pm ET--a good reminder that the market gets to decide what to make of the available news. Econ Data / Events Philly Fed Non Manufacturing -23.6 vs -13.0 f'cast Chicago Fed Activity Index .14 vs -.03 Market Movement Recap 08:43 AM Overnight peace optimism gains holding. MBS up half a point and 10yr down 8bps at 4.482 11:02 AM Off best levels. MBS up 3/8ths and 10yr down 5.6bps at 4.502 02:45 PM Modest recovery. MBS up 14 ticks (.44) and 10yr down 6.1bps at 4.498 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-05262026 Tue, 26 May 2026 13:35:38 GMT 6a15afd0a6791958c5df1f6d Matthew Graham On Sunday evening, the NYT ran a story that the U.S. and Iran had agreed in principle to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The key distinction versus previous rumors/reports is that the issue of nuclear material is being left as "TBD." Subsequent headlines mentioned several military strikes, but the market didn't react (it's been fairly common to see those sorts of "yeah but" headlines immediately following potential breakthroughs toward peace). Market reaction is the best judge of headline credibility and the reaction is clear. Oil dropped about $5/bbl and 10yr yields are staring out 7bps lower at 4.489--the lowest levels since May 14th. MBS are up more than 3/8ths of a point in early trading. In the broader context, this recovery gets us back to the upper boundary of the range that had been intact before last week. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-05222026 Fri, 22 May 2026 19:05:44 GMT 6a10b728a6791958c5d889de Matthew Graham Bonds Scratch Out a Win Amid Dueling Headlines Bonds remain surprisingly willing to react to the most seemingly insignificant war-related headlines. Today it was the much-debated geographical location of Pakistan's lead negotiator, Asim Munir, that set the tone. Bonds rallied on early accounts that he was en route to Tehran and pulled back when other headlines suggested he never left Pakistan. Ultimately, yields trickled just barely into positive territory by the end of the holiday-shortened session. Monday is fully closed for Memorial Day and we're back to watching the news feed on Tuesday. Econ Data / Events CB Leading Index MoM (Apr) 0.1% vs -0.2% f'cast, -0.6% prev Consumer Sentiment (May) 44.8 vs 48.2 f'cast, 49.8 prev Sentiment: 1y Inflation (May) 4.8% vs 4.5% f'cast, 4.7% prev Sentiment: 5y Inflation (May) 3.9% vs 3.4% f'cast, 3.5% prev U Mich conditions (May) 45.8 vs 47.9 f'cast, 52.5 prev Market Movement Recap 08:41 AM Modestly stronger overnight with some additional gains after early peace talk headlines. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.547 10:09 AM MBS now up only 1 tick (.03) and down 7 ticks (.22) from the AM highs. 10yr up 0.4bps at 4.572 after briefly trading below 4.53. 12:48 PM After being down almost an eighth, MBS are back to being up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr yields back to unchanged after being about 1bp higher. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-05222026 Fri, 22 May 2026 12:59:51 GMT 6a10619ca6791958c5d7dde2 Matthew Graham Bonds are starting the session at the best levels of the week with modest overnight gains getting a small boost from news that Pakistan's army chief (a central figure in mediating US/Iran peace talks) is en route to Tehran. Trading ends at 2pm today instead of 5pm, as is usually the case for a Friday before a Monday federal holiday. Econ data is light, but additional war headlines could still move the needle. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs