http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mbs Mortgage Rates Blog https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-07102026 Fri, 10 Jul 2026 19:50:03 GMT 6a515b34a6791958c54062c4 Matthew Graham Some Bond-Specific Weakness in The Afternoon Oil and Treasury yields were almost perfectly correlated for almost the entire week. Friday afternoon was an exception. Oil continued sideways to slightly lower while yields rose a bit. Overall damage was negligible, but it was interesting nonetheless. While there was no clear news or event behind the move, we can plainly see that it originated in the shortest end of the curve and/or Fed rate expectations. Friday afternoon illiquidity likely made the move bigger than it otherwise would have been. As for potential reasons, it could be as simple as dealers positioning for next week's inflation reports and Warsh testimony. Econ Data / Events Jobless Claims (Jul)/04 215.0K vs 218K f'cast, 215K prev Market Movement Recap 09:11 AM Unchanged MBS and 10yr down half a bp at 4.548 11:13 AM MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr unchanged at 4.553 02:19 PM MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.568 03:35 PM Off the weakest levels. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up less than 1bp at 4.561 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-07102026 Fri, 10 Jul 2026 14:05:17 GMT 6a510a58a6791958c53fc1cd Matthew Graham The entire week has been a study in the rekindled love affair between bond yields and oil prices. The latter is fairly flat versus yesterday's latest levels, so it's no surprise to see bonds in the same position. Without anything of note on the econ calendar today, there's no reason to expect any catalyst to have more potential impact than war-related headlines and oil prices. That said, we've certainly seen bonds hesitate to follow oil prices lower at times. There's a faint whiff of that dislocation in early trading.+ Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-07092026 Thu, 09 Jul 2026 20:11:09 GMT 6a500f90a6791958c53e0d85 Matthew Graham Slightly Stronger But There's a Catch Bonds had a decent day with MBS up more than a quarter point and 10yr yields down 3bps to 4.54+.  While that adds some emphasis to the rejection of a technical breakout above 4.59%, we can't really conclude that it happened for any bond-specific reasons. In fact, we're forced to conclude that bonds are on auto-pilot for the most part and that oil prices are the key input for now. As was the case in June, we know this correlation isn't permanent, but it's been highly reliable during this resurgence of U.S./Iran tensions. Econ Data / Events Jobless Claims (Jul)/04 215.0K vs 218K f'cast, 215K prev Market Movement Recap 09:21 AM Fairly flat overnight and just a hair stronger now. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down just under 1bp at 4.566 12:35 PM Additional gains, still correlated with oil prices. MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 3bps at 4.543 03:35 PM Off best levels, but still stronger. MBS up 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr down 3bps at 4.543 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-07092026 Thu, 09 Jul 2026 13:49:14 GMT 6a4fb554a6791958c53d5ae4 Matthew Graham Bonds are starting the day just a hair stronger versus yesterday's close and there are three ways to look at it. At the most basic level, the move is so small that it doesn't deserve any explanation (i.e. we're close enough to unchanged to say "nothing new is happening"). But given the recent resurgence of correlation between bonds and oil prices, that's probably today's warm bowl of porridge considering the almost 100% directional alignment overnight. Finally, the most speculative and least defensible view is that bonds are finding technical support at the 4.59 which made our "key levels" list when it served as the stopping point for the biggest day of selling of the past few months on May 15th and was also the closing level on May 16th as well as yesterday's intraday high.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-07082026 Wed, 08 Jul 2026 19:50:06 GMT 6a4eb834a6791958c53b9869 Matthew Graham More War-Related Weakness, But With a Supportive Bounce Bonds officially closed at the highest yields in more than a month. At one point just before the noon hour, the 10yr was just over 4.59, but ultimately moved back to 4.56. That's only about 1bp higher than yesterday's latest levels (which feels like a win compared to the mid-day trend). Oil prices and bond yields remain in a tight correlation, and once again, war-related headlines set the tone. The most notable among them was a Trump comment regarding the ceasefire being cancelled/over.  As was frequently the case in the run-up to the signing of the MOU, it's hard to know which comments represent "tough talk" as opposed to legitimate shifts in policy and military activity.  Trading levels reflect the same uncertainty (i.e. oil/yields are certainly higher, but also not nearly as high as they were in May). Market Movement Recap 08:46 AM Weaker overnight after Trump says ceasefire is over. But not much weaker. MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up less than 1bp at 4.561 10:44 AM MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 3.4bps at 4.586 01:22 PM No major reaction to 10yr auction. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 2.5 bps at 4.577 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-07082026 Wed, 08 Jul 2026 13:27:18 GMT 6a4e5f24a6791958c53ae758 Matthew Graham Iran-related headlines have jumped back to the realm of relevance this week and Wednesday morning's overnight session kicked things up another notch. Trump declared the ceasefire to be over and is currently saying peace deal negotiations may not even continue. Markets definitely reacted with oil and Treasury yields spiking overnight. The interesting part is the magnitude of the spike. It was roughly 4bps in terms of 10yr yields and almost half those losses were recovered over the following 2 hours. Oil prices rose roughly $3 and have dropped almost $2 since the initial spike. Bottom line: markets are trading the news, but with a grain of salt. A longer-term chart puts recent moves in perspective. The day's only meaningful calendar event is the 2pm release of the minutes from the last Fed meeting. Markets are curious to see "what's different" with this being Warsh's first meeting. At the very least, it would be hard for Fed minutes NOT to convey forward guidance as a side effect of normal Fed policy discussion.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-07072026 Tue, 07 Jul 2026 19:18:12 GMT 6a4d5faca6791958c53921fd Matthew Graham Hormuz Back in The News Iran has attacked a few cargo ships recently and there are repercussions. The peace deal looks to be on shakier ground over the past 24 hours with both sides talking tough on the internet. Just before 3pm, the U.S. referred to Iran's actions as unacceptable and revoked the license that allowed the sale of Iranian oil. Oil prices were higher all day, but especially after that news. Bond yields have been quick to reconnect with their old flame, exhibiting strong correlation over the past 24 hours. The net effect by 3:10pm was a 6.6bp rise in 10yr yields (4.536) and nearly a half point drop in MBS. Market Movement Recap 08:36 AM Modestly weaker overnight with some pressure from Amazon bond announcement. 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.488 and MBS down 3 ticks (.09).  09:59 AM More selling (some related to 9:30am NYSE open and some due to Hormuz news). 10yr up 3.8bps at 4.508 and MBS down a quarter point.  01:29 PM 10yr up 5.3bps at 4.523 and MBS down 10 ticks (.31). Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-07072026 Tue, 07 Jul 2026 13:46:15 GMT 6a4d1254a6791958c53889d6 Matthew Graham From summertime Monday to summertime Tuesday... Yesterday's modest strength is now erased by today's modest weakness. In both cases, the movement is too small to worry about obvious catalysts, though some may assume that there's an oil price component following Iran's attacks on commercial ships in The Strait. A separate consideration would be Amazon filing for a potentially large corporate bond offering (why do we care?). But even if these things are moving markets, they're not very good at it. The same can be said for essentially all of the line items on the econ calendar today. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-07062026 Mon, 06 Jul 2026 20:03:24 GMT 6a4c18b8a6791958c536d761 Matthew Graham Uneventful Summertime Monday Volume and--sometimes--volatility can be generally lower in the middle of the summertime months as fewer traders are consistently at bond desks--especially on days adjacent to 3-day holiday weekends. Today was a classic example. Bonds barely budged and volume is on track for one of the lightest full trading days of the year. In many ways, today was simply a 4th weekend day and we'll know more about how bonds are feeling on Tuesday. But at the very least, it's somewhat constructive to be starting the week without any extension of last week's selling pressure. Econ Data / Events ISM N-Mfg PMI (Jun) 54.0 vs 54 f'cast, 54.5 prev Market Movement Recap 09:14 AM Modestly stronger over the weekend. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.1bps at 4.465 12:54 PM MBS up 4 ticks (.125) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.482 03:21 PM MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 0.7bps at 4.478 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-07062026 Mon, 06 Jul 2026 14:19:56 GMT 6a4bc7dca6791958c536367e Matthew Graham Bonds weathered the 3-day weekend without issue. We started the day modestly stronger, but have moved back closer to unchanged levels in the first 2 hours. The day's only big-ticket (or semi-big-ticket?) econ data was the ISM Services index, but admittedly, that has more of an impact when it's released BEFORE the jobs report. Moreover, it was right in line with expectations at 54.0 vs 54.0, so even if this had come out last week, it may not have moved the needle.  There are always multiple ways to approach trends and The bigger picture is a bit more gloomy as it involves a longer-term uptrend in yields (ongoing). But if we zoom out even more, we find that yields have tended to encounter a supportive ceiling at or just over 4.70%, which was basically the high on May 19th. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs