http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mbs Mortgage Rates Blog https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06182026 Thu, 18 Jun 2026 19:19:38 GMT 6a34532ca6791958c5124bfd Matthew Graham Perfectly Acceptable Conclusion to a Potentially Volatile Week With markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday on Friday, Thursday marked the end of the trading week. Considering the sell-off on Wednesday afternoon, the week had the potential to end on an uncomfortably volatile note. Instead, bonds pushed back nicely in the other direction--even though MBS didn't recoup as much of their losses as 10yr Treasuries. True, there is some sense of foreboding in the inability of 10yr yields to move below 4.42%, but all told, the week was actually surprisingly calm after factoring in Thursday's gains. Econ Data / Events Continued Claims (Jun)/06 1,810K vs 1800K f'cast, 1795K prev Jobless Claims (Jun)/13 226K vs 225K f'cast, 229K prev Philly Fed Business Index (Jun) 10.3 vs 10 f'cast, -0.4 prev Philly Fed Prices Paid (Jun) 53.20 vs -- f'cast, 47.90 prev Market Movement Recap 08:55 AM Bonds recover much of post-Fed sell-ff overnight, but mostly in the long end. 2yr yields lost more ground. 10yr yields are down 5bps at 4.446.  MBS are up just under a quarter point. 10:24 AM MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 6.3bps at 4.434 03:02 PM MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.2bps at 4.454 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06182026 Thu, 18 Jun 2026 14:04:24 GMT 6a340958a6791958c511b900 Matthew Graham Trump officially signed the Iran MOU last night , which helped oil prices and bond yields move a bit lower. Overseas markets also did a decent job digesting the post-Warsh trade, quarantining most of the damage to the shortest end of the yield curve and buying the longer end (i.e. 10yr rallied back almost completely while 2yr barely rallied). The net effect is a 10yr yield that is back on the doorstep of the 4.42% technical floor (currently 4.435%). MBS have a shorter implied duration than 10 years and only a bit better than halfway back to yesterday's pre-Fed levels. As a reminder, markets are closed Friday. There is no big ticket econ today, so traders will be left to focus on technicals, pre-weekend positioning, and any headlines of consequence. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06172026 Wed, 17 Jun 2026 21:00:13 GMT 6a33191ca6791958c5106f87 Matthew Graham Bonds Tell Warsh What They Think of His Changes Ironically, one of Warsh's comments in today's press conference was that market movement is the most important source of information for the Fed. At the same time, the market was effectively saying that it was also fond of hearing what was on the Fed's mind, and if the Fed is going to stop sharing those thoughts, the market was going to cry about it. This certainly wasn't the whole story as the hawkish dot plot did about half the damage well before the press conference. One could also argue that some traders may have expected Warsh to do something to push back against that Hawkishness. Instead, he did very little apart from reference various task forces that would be working on several projects. In general, the lack of transparency and the absence of even a semblance of forward guidance led the market to rapidly price in a higher risk premium in both stocks and bonds. Bottom line, markets said "if you aren't going to do anything to push back on that hawkish dot plot, we're gonna go ahead and assume rate hikes are more likely."  Econ Data / Events Retail Sales (May) 0.9% vs 0.5% f'cast, 0.5% prev Retail Sales Control Group MoM (May) 0.7% vs 0.4% f'cast, 0.5% prev Market Movement Recap 08:33 AM Flat overnight and no reaction to data. MBS unchanged and 10yr unchanged at 4.44. 11:30 AM MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.431 02:17 PM MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 1.2bps at 4.455 03:10 PM MBS down 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr up 3.2bps at 4.473 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-06172026 Wed, 17 Jun 2026 18:00:57 GMT 6a32eeeca6791958c5101901 Matthew Graham Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at The Federal Open Market Committee approved the following statement for release by a solid pace. Job gains have remained low, on average, and the unemployment rate has been little changed in recent months. Inflation is elevated, in part reflecting the recent increase in global energy prices. 12 – 0 vote: The Committee seeks decided to achieve maximum employment and inflation maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. Developments 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent, in the Middle East are contributing to a high level of uncertainty about the economic outlook. support of the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate. The Committee is attentive to reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the risks to both sides of its dual mandate. banking system. In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate Economic activity is expanding at 3‑1/2 to 3‑3/4 percent. In considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict in the evolving outlook, Middle East. Productivity growth and capital investment are strong. Job gains have kept pace with the balance of risks. The Committee is strongly committed to supporting maximum employment workforce, and returning inflation to its 2 percent objective. the unemployment rate has changed little. In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared Inflation remains elevated relative to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge the Committee’s 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy. The Committee’s assessments Committee will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. deliver price stability. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06172026 Wed, 17 Jun 2026 13:40:08 GMT 6a32b1fca6791958c50fa506 Matthew Graham So far today, we've seen some war-related headlines that feel like they should have gotten at least a mild response (Trump saying MOU isn't final and could go back to dropping bombs) and a Retail Sales report that speaks to ongoing economic expansion at a faster-than-expected pace. Both of those things argue for something other than a modest rally in bonds, yet that is exactly what we're seeing. If it weren't for the absence of any major response in other markets, we might wonder what bonds were smoking, or whether they're waiting for bigger news. On that note, the whole market actually is waiting to see how it feels after a Fed Day with a new Fed Chair. Attempts to quantify that anxiety are subjective, but it's objectively true that today's Fed announcement is much more highly consequential than recent examples, simply due to feeling out Warsh. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06162026 Tue, 16 Jun 2026 20:24:27 GMT 6a31bf68a6791958c50df89f Matthew Graham Decent Gains, But Some Signs of Resistance Bonds improved overnight at the start of European trading and made additional gains in concert with lower oil prices during the domestic session. Notably, the gains met resistance at 4.42%--a resistance level that's been on our radar since the last bounce a few weeks ago. Technical levels certainly don't predict the future, but they can provide a framework for measuring the pace of change in trading levels. If bonds are weaker in the morning, it would act as confirmation that the initial response to the Iran peace deal has played out. In addition, there's potential volatility surrounding the Fed announcement, almost exclusively reserved for feeling out any visible shifts from new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Econ Data / Events ADP Employment Change Weekly 25.5K vs -- f'cast, 29K prev Building Permits (May) 1.413M vs 1.42M f'cast, 1.423M prev Housing starts number mm (May) 1.177M vs 1.43M f'cast, 1.465M prev Import prices mm (May) 1.9% vs 1.0% f'cast, 1.9% prev Market Movement Recap 08:52 AM Stronger overnight as Europe trades the peace deal. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 4bps at 4.438 11:55 AM Best levels. MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 5bps at 4.428 03:03 PM MBS up 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 5.3bps at 4.425 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06162026 Tue, 16 Jun 2026 15:55:19 GMT 6a318020a6791958c50d797d Matthew Graham European markets definitely got in on the peace deal action yesterday, but they didn't trade it nearly as aggressively as US markets.  Why bring this up? There was a fairly obvious shift toward lower oil prices and bond yields overnight, and the most obvious suspect was simply the opening bell for European markets. While obvious, it wasn't too big. 10yr yields are hovering in a range that's 2-3bps lower than yesterday, and still above the lows seen at the beginning of the month.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06152026 Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:15:36 GMT 6a306b90a6791958c50b8ae5 Matthew Graham Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger. With both sides signing the peace memo, the market was immediately willing to react in the overnight session, but that reaction fell short of what we might expect for an official peace deal. This is a bond market problem more than an Iran war problem. Case in point, oil prices stayed flat after their big overnight drop.  Stocks added to strong overnight gains. Bonds were the odd man out. Part of the reason is that bonds did more than stocks to get in position for this eventuality last week. As of today, both the S&P and 10yr are close enough to the best recent levels to say the overall market reaction has been fairly even keeled. We'd also expect more bullishness among bond traders when the deal is officially official (possibly after Friday's scheduled meeting in Switzerland). Finally, bonds could be holding back a bit to see how Wednesday's Fed announcement goes.  Econ Data / Events NY Fed Manufacturing (Jun) 5.70 vs 14 f'cast, 19.60 prev Industrial Production (May) 0.1% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.7% prev Market Movement Recap 08:49 AM Nice rally overnight on confirmation of U.S./Iran peace deal with scheduled signing. MBS up nearly a quarter point and 10yr down 3.3 bps at 4.452 12:35 PM MBS still up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.461 03:21 PM MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.463 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06152026 Mon, 15 Jun 2026 14:07:06 GMT 6a301604a6791958c50ae601 Matthew Graham Although at least one article (from BBC) suggested a peace deal had been signed on Friday, the real word appears to be that a signing is scheduled for Friday. That fact, along with comments on a "done deal" from both sides, helped bonds rally sharply in overnight trading. 10yr yields dropped roughly 6bps and have corrected gradually since then. Yields remain nearly 4bps lower and MBS are starting out nearly a quarter point higher.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06122026 Fri, 12 Jun 2026 19:34:24 GMT 6a2c6db0a6791958c505e82e Matthew Graham Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different Various headlines out of Iran pushed back on the notion that a preliminary peace deal was near the finish line this morning. This resulted in modest upward pressure on yields for the first several hours of the day. Then just before 11am, Iran's foreign minister said the media shouldn't speculate and that the deal has "never been closer." Trump subsequently reposted that news. This sent oil prices back toward the day's lows and helped bonds recover most the ground lost earlier this morning. Volatility was minimal in the bigger picture. We'd expect a much bigger reaction to an official signing--something that could happen in a matter of days or continue to be punted indefinitely. Econ Data / Events Consumer Sentiment (Jun) 48.9 vs 46 f'cast, 44.8 prev Sentiment: 1y Inflation (Jun) 4.6% vs -- f'cast, 4.8% prev Sentiment: 5y Inflation (Jun) 3.4% vs -- f'cast, 3.9% prev U Mich conditions (Jun) 48.4 vs 46.2 f'cast, 45.8 prev Market Movement Recap 08:43 AM Just a hair weaker overnight. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.483 10:03 AM Weakest levels. MBS down 6 ticks (.19). 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.495 10:48 AM MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 3.5bps at 4.503 01:00 PM MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.482 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs