http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mbs Mortgage Rates Blog https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-05122026 Tue, 12 May 2026 20:06:51 GMT 6a039764a6791958c5c219ee Matthew Graham Highest Yields in 10 Months on War Headlines and Auction Concessions Because CPI came out slightly higher today and because of its status as a bigger potential market mover, many rate watchers will assume that's the reason 10yr yields closed at their highest level since last July. But bond yields were actually lower in the first 40 minutes post-CPI. It wasn't until newswires cited Trump saying he's in no hurry to end the war that yields began spiking (and stocks began selling). It's also worth noting that yields were already up to 4.44% ahead of CPI and only moved 2bps higher by the close (i.e. not much intraday movement in the grand scheme). Could CPI have been a factor for some traders? Sure, but the majority of post-CPI volume suggests the data was largely taken in stride. Econ Data / Events m/m CORE CPI (Apr) 0.4% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.2% prev m/m Headline CPI (Apr) 0.6% vs 0.6% f'cast, 0.9% prev y/y CORE CPI (Apr) 2.8% vs 2.7% f'cast, 2.6% prev y/y Headline CPI (Apr) 3.8% vs 3.7% f'cast, 3.3% prev Market Movement Recap 08:30 AM No major reaction to CPI. 10yr up 2.9bps at 4.438 and MBS are down only 2 ticks (.06). 09:39 AM MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 4.2bps at 4.451 02:03 PM Weakest levels. MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 5.2bps at 4.461 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-05122026 Tue, 12 May 2026 13:29:16 GMT 6a0339a4a6791958c5c16107 Matthew Graham This morning's Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in slightly hotter than expected with core inflation running 2.8% annual vs 2.7% forecasts and overall inflation at 3.8% vs 3.7%. Bonds have traded both ways after the data, but after 20 minutes, yields were actually LOWER by a hair. What gives? We know traders are trading the data based on volume. The stalemate could have to do with core goods (a proxy for tariff-related inflation) moving lower. The Fed has called this category out as a prerequisite for considering rate cuts again. The rest of the data was less friendly but housing played an outsized role. This is actually better for the rate outlook because traders think housing will ultimately trend lower over time. That said, the non-housing metric (supercore, .454% monthly and 3.32% annually) remains far too high for a rate cut discussion to be on the table for the foreseeable future. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-05112026 Mon, 11 May 2026 19:50:10 GMT 6a024134a6791958c5bfa349 Matthew Graham Over Before it Began Monday proved to be a boring trading day despite the moderately big sell-off. Yields actually didn't move much during the domestic session. In fact, they didn't move during the overnight session either. Because the day's market-moving news happened on Sunday before trading began, it was instantly priced in at the open, and the rest of the day was spent drifting sideways to slightly weaker. Bonds ultimately underperformed their prevailing correlation with oil prices. We're not reading anything into this--especially in light of the Treasury auction cycle possibly adding some concessionary weakness.  Econ Data / Events Existing home sales (Apr) 4.02M vs 4.05M f'cast, 3.98M prev Market Movement Recap 09:03 AM Weaker overnight after peace deal impasse. MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.381 12:58 PM weakest levels with 10yr up 4.6bps at 4.401 and MBS down almost 3/8ths 02:08 PM some support after hitting weakest levels. MBS down 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr up 4.8bps at 4.403 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-05112026 Mon, 11 May 2026 15:28:35 GMT 6a020444a6791958c5bf28bb Matthew Graham Bonds are starting the day moderately weaker. The reasons are straightforward. Chief among them, Trump rejected Iran's counterproposal to end the war, calling it "totally unacceptable." In response, Iran's foreign minister said it will never bow to foreign pressure. Adding fuel to the fire, Netanyahu said the war was not over and there was "more work to be done."  When trading began late Sunday night, oil prices were roughly 5bps higher and 10yr yields rose 4bps to roughly 4.40%. Despite those losses, trading levels for both oil prices and bond yields remain lower than they were before last week's big rally on Wednesday morning. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-05082026 Fri, 08 May 2026 19:34:37 GMT 69fe4930a6791958c5ba032a Matthew Graham Calm and Slightly Stronger, But Volatility Will be Back Once or twice per week, the bond market manages to post a fairly calm trading day against the prevailing backdrop of generally higher volatility. Today was such a day. The most helpful catalyst was an absence of any major war-related headlines and associated oil price volatility. That said, it's a near certainty that war-related volatility will be back in the coming week.  Econ Data / Events Average earnings mm (Apr) 0.2% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.2% prev Non Farm Payrolls (Apr) 115K vs 62K f'cast, 178K prev Participation Rate (Apr) 61.8% vs -- f'cast, 61.9% prev Unemployment rate mm (Apr) 4.3% vs 4.3% f'cast, 4.3% prev Consumer Sentiment (May) 48.2 vs 49.5 f'cast, 49.8 prev Sentiment: 1y Inflation (May) 4.5% vs -- f'cast, 4.7% prev Sentiment: 5y Inflation (May) 3.4% vs -- f'cast, 3.5% prev Market Movement Recap 08:32 AM No major reaction to jobs report. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.5bps at 4.375 10:46 AM Slightly stronger but leveling off.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.356 02:13 PM MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.5bps at 4.356 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-05082026 Fri, 08 May 2026 13:00:43 GMT 69fdec9ca6791958c5b95271 Matthew Graham Everyone's been talking about the ongoing change in the significance of the payroll number in the jobs report. OK, not everyone, but economists and bond traders for sure. The issue is the rapid shift in the size of the labor force as well as recent volatility in the multiple jobholder category, among other things. Specifically, the labor force has been shrinking since November and was already growing at a slower rate before then. That means it takes a lower NFP number to keep unemployment flat. More importantly, it means that NFP is no longer the be all, end all economic indicator. For decades, NFP has been the go-to number in the jobs report while the unemployment rate was an afterthought. Now, it's the complete opposite. That's why NFP can come in at 115k vs 62k today while unemployment is 4.3 vs 4.3 and bonds are just a hair stronger (never would have happened before these structural changes began). Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-05072026 Thu, 07 May 2026 19:24:16 GMT 69fcf558a6791958c5b78dc9 Matthew Graham Another Mid-Day Reversal Driven by Dueling Headlines The overnight session featured a modest but clearly-defined rally in response to hopeful headlines on the Iran war. But as early a 9am ET, a complete reversal was beginning to take shape. Bonds remained in positive territory until the 11am hour when war headlines kicked selling into higher gear. Specifically, reports suggested Iran rejected the U.S. framework that helped bonds overnight. Separate news cited CIA sources, claiming Iran can withstand a Hormuz blockade for months. Selling continued in the afternoon on reports that had more to do with escalation risks (Saudi Arabia and Kuwait allowing U.S. forces to operate from their bases, explosions heard in Southern Iran). All told, 10yr yields were up more than 4bps by 3pm and MBS were down a quarter point. Econ Data / Events Challenger layoffs (Apr) 83.387K vs -- f'cast, 60.62K prev Continued Claims (Apr)/25 1,766K vs 1800K f'cast, 1785K prev Jobless Claims (May)/02 200K vs 205K f'cast, 189K prev Unit Labor Costs QoQ FinalQ1 2.3% vs 2.6% f'cast, 4.4% prev Market Movement Recap 08:32 AM stronger overnight and no reaction to econ data. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 1.5bps at 4.331 11:31 AM moving into weaker territory now. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.361 01:13 PM New lows for MBS, down 5 ticks (.16) on the day. 10yr up 3.4bps at 4.38 03:00 PM MBS at new lows, down 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr up 4.3bps at 4.39 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-05072026 Thu, 07 May 2026 13:08:19 GMT 69fc9d74a6791958c5b6da65 Matthew Graham Bonds and oil rallied again in the overnight session, though not as swiftly as they did yesterday. News was thinner, but there was still an obvious catalyst just before 3am with a WSJ report that the U.S. provided Iran a detailed framework to end the war. The line item that caught the market's attention was a change in the moratorium on uranium enrichment. Previously, it was permanent, but the new framework calls for 20 years. 10yr yields rallied several bps on the news and oil prices moved down about 4 dollars. There hasn't been much volatility in bonds since then with 8:30am data proving to be a non-event. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-05062026 Wed, 06 May 2026 20:15:40 GMT 69fbaf90a6791958c5b51e0a Matthew Graham Pre-Market Gains Stuck Around All Day The entirety of the domestic trading session was very flat compared to the ground covered during the overnight session. Pre-market headlines regarding a potential peace deal accounted for a 7bp drop in 10yr yields and 3/8th point improvement in MBS. 10s gained about 1 more bp by the close and MBS added another eighth of a point, bringing to total rally over half a point on the day as of 4pm ET.  There were no other notable market movers by the time domestic trading hours began. The rally speaks to the likelihood that an official peace deal could create more rally momentum, but also to the market's susceptibility to war-related headlines.  Econ Data / Events MBA Purchase Index (May)/01 171.1 vs -- f'cast, 177.7 prev MBA Refi Index (May)/01 928.6 vs -- f'cast, 977.9 prev Mortgage (Mar)ket Index (May)/01 285.3 vs -- f'cast, 298.5 prev ADP jobs (Apr) 109K vs 99K f'cast, 62K prev Market Movement Recap 08:16 AM Stronger overnight on reports that a peace deal was within reach. Both sides have since refuted those reports. 10yr still down 5.7bps at 4.368 and MBS are starting out about 3/8ths higher. 11:19 AM At best levels. MBS up half a point and 10yr down 7.6bps at 4.349 01:42 PM holding near best levels. MBS up half a point and 10yr down 7.7bps at 4.348 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-05062026 Wed, 06 May 2026 12:49:24 GMT 69fb4744a6791958c5b449b6 Matthew Graham There was one, big, obvious market mover overnight. At 4:50am ET, Axios reported that the U.S. and Iran are close to signing a one page memo of understanding to end the war. Oil and bond yields were already in recovery mode, but this kicked things into higher gear. Most of the gains remain even after both sides offered refutations (which the market now perceives as merely a negotiation tactic). Subsequent reports from other sources also speak to specific details in the peace deal that seem to specific to be made up. In early trading, ADP employment data had no impact and Treasury's confirmation of unchanged auction sizes helped bonds hold the overnight gains. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs