http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/topic/mbs Mortgage Rates Blog https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-11092026 Mon, 09 Nov 2026 15:48:39 GMT 6af1f9b89f50a0a93e22ad20 Matthew Graham In the bigger picture, today offers little by way of actionable new info for the bond market. Unsurprisingly, volatility is being dictated by a decently big bounce in equities. Stocks were sideways to slightly stronger overnight, but have jumped somewhat sharply at the 9:30am NYSE open. Roughly half of last Thursday's rout has now been erased. Bonds weren't nearly as eager to move on Thursday relative to stocks and the same is true so far this morning. Tomorrow's CPI is the first major test this week. As for tail risk, a big enough bounce in stocks would likely not be great for bonds, if it happens (and it certainly could). Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-11062026 Fri, 06 Nov 2026 20:54:15 GMT 6aee4cb49f50a0a93e1d93d1 Matthew Graham Very Strong Showing For Bonds Considering The Headwinds There were two major headwinds in play for the bond market today. Most obviously, the jobs report was very strong--something that would normally push rates logically and obviously higher. One can only run through a list of potential explanations to fit that paradoxical result (unemployment rate wasn't as far from forecasts, election impact still being weighed, tech stocks didn't bounce big, stale data if mid-October marked a shift in economic momentum) but mind you, no one would have pointed to these things as reasons for bonds to completely defy the jobs report if they had to guess at the impact ahead of time. The second headwind was the absence of additional selling in tech stocks. This one could go both ways. On on hand, the NASDAQ is higher than it was yesterday afternoon. On the other hand (and to reiterate a bullet point above) it didn't stage any sort of impressive recovery. The net effect for bonds was modest weakness although things would have been weaker were it not for mid-day news regarding Microsoft winding down a deal to rent AI cloud compute from Oracle. Econ Data / Events Non Farm Payrolls (Oct) 165K vs 65K f'cast, 29K prev Participation Rate (Oct) 61.9% vs -- f'cast, 61.8% prev Unemployment rate mm (Oct) 4.1% vs 4.2% f'cast, 4.2% prev Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-11062026 Fri, 06 Nov 2026 14:25:28 GMT 6aedf2789f50a0a93e1cdfc0 Matthew Graham Nonfarm payrolls came in 100k higher than forecast and the unemployment dropped even as the participation rate moved higher. That's a recipe for a bond market sell-off if we ever saw one. But apart from an initial knee-jerk sell-off, yields returned back in line with pre-NFP levels within 8 minutes and haven't moved much since then. What gives? Well... we expect that this is one of those days where market commentators are forced to adapt their narrative to the trading as opposed to hoping the trading would validate their narrative.  One caveat is that professional/biz services accounted for +70k of the 165k total, whereas it has averaged +15k over the past year. This isn't enough to discount the strength of the data. In fact, it's a genuinely strong report. Bonds simply don't care (apart from ultra short term bills and Fed Funds Futures). Neither did stocks for that matter. In the interest of analytical authenticity, here are the only thoughts we would have shared even if bonds were selling off in response to this data (perhaps some of the resilience coincides with some of these to some extent, but if anyone tells you they saw this market reaction coming, yell at them and tell them to tell you ahead of time next time so you can both make some money trading). Bonds were already 3+ bps weaker overnight Fed recently and explicitly said it's focused on inflation side of mandate (mentioned yesterday as well) Bonds have been primarily taking cues from AI deflation trade Tech stocks moved modestly higher overnight, and bonds might not want to get carried away selling off if the tech rout might have an encore Stocks/Bonds are also still trying to make sense of what election results might imply about the tech trade (and data center buildout pace, which could imply a downgraded view of corporate bond issuance, thus helping Treasuries/MBS). Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-11052026 Thu, 05 Nov 2026 20:04:00 GMT 6aecef7c9f50a0a93e1aeff4 Matthew Graham Stocks Got Rocked. Bonds Picked Up Some Slack Chipmakers and other tech names got absolutely rocked today starting at the 9:30am NYSE open. Hedge funds dumped semiconductors like a bad habit early and often (Sandisk down 20% anyone?!), and with tech comprising so much of the 2026 growth story, the rest of the stock market followed suit. Bonds were a hair weaker at 9:30am, but that rapidly changed due to the magnitude of the equity market exodus. Still, 10yr yields falling a mere 5-6bps is pretty underwhelming considering stocks had their worst day in over a year and hit their worst levels since April (NASDAQ specifically). Friday's jobs report is still a contender for volatility although any major swings in stocks should set the tone. Econ Data / Events Jobless Claims 189k vs 196k f'cast, 195k prev Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-11052026 Thu, 05 Nov 2026 14:06:38 GMT 6aec9c489f50a0a93e1a489a Matthew Graham Bonds are starting the day a few bps weaker. 10yr yields are just over 4.90% and considering they were almost 50bps higher a month ago, you're free to go about your business today without scrutinizing this morning's baby bump. It could be purely incidental. But for those who demand scapegoats, the easiest suspect to blame would be corporate debt issuance from Apple, which coincided with bonds breaking away from their overnight stock market correlation. In the bigger picture, we could consider investors might wonder if the NASDAQ just had another summer-sized correction and might now find support. Lastly, we might consider the bond market correction has similarly covered enough ground as to merit a bit of cooling.  All of that is speculative, of course. If stocks resume tanking or if the econ data gets bad, the good times could easily resume. But if stocks move back toward all-time highs and the data improves, it would make sense for the recent bull run in bonds to find resistance here. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-11042026 Wed, 04 Nov 2026 21:19:08 GMT 6aebaf909f50a0a93e188904 Matthew Graham Elections, Oil, and Neocloud Stocks, Oh My! There are 3 publicly traded neocloud stocks that are big enough to care about. All 3 hit new long term lows today (ranging from 6 months to over a year).  All 3 continue to track very well with the recent bond market rally. This is simplest way to approach today's gains. The more you wander from that path, the more complex and circular the logic becomes. Oil prices have plummeted almost $20since last Friday. Seems like it should matter, and a few traders might agree. Then there's the election, which caused a surge in the broader stock market. We'd be careful giving it credit for bond market gains considering yields jumped from 4.90% to almost 4.95% when the senate results were called by news agencies. The easiest way to attempt to connect those dots would be via "AI company headwind implications." Such headwinds could imply slower corporate bond issuance or even a slower pace of economic growth. Bottom line: we have no objection to the lowest rates in more than a month, but the rally still looks most dependent on neocloud jitters.  Econ Data / Events ADP jobs (Oct) 86K vs 69K f'cast, 90K prev Trade Gap (Sep) -105.00B vs $-108B f'cast, $-105.6B prev S&P Global Composite PMI (Oct) 55.9 vs 57.6 f'cast, 58.4 prev S&P Global Services PMI (Oct) 56.1 vs 57.9 f'cast, 58.8 prev ISM Biz Activity (Oct) 53.8 vs -- f'cast, 56.5 prev ISM N-Mfg PMI (Oct) 54.5 vs 54.8 f'cast, 54.9 prev ISM Services Employment (Oct) 51.4 vs -- f'cast, 50.1 prev ISM Services New Orders (Oct) 55.9 vs -- f'cast, 59.8 prev ISM Services Prices (Oct) 73.0 vs -- f'cast, 74.0 prev Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-11042026 Wed, 04 Nov 2026 15:50:20 GMT 6aeb63649f50a0a93e17ef2c Matthew Graham There are several moving parts to today's trading levels, but the TL;DR is that bonds are holding modest gains so far despite some 2-way volatility. The overnight session started out with the strongest gains of the day, clearly coinciding with a stock market swoon.  Stock prices and bond yields bounced higher when the senate majority was called around 11:30pm ET. Bonds quickly unwound most of the overnight gains before stabilizing sideways at slightly stronger levels. Stocks have been rising ever since. In other words, there was no magical relief in the bond market about political gridlock or the defusing of the risk of $5k payouts (who knows if that would have happened, but if it did, it would have implied more Treasury borrowing). Stocks saw additional gains at the open. This put some pressure on bonds. Then at 10am, the ISM data led to another small bout of selling as the comments reflect forward-looking inflation concerns.    Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-11032026 Tue, 03 Nov 2026 21:17:01 GMT 6aea5e109f50a0a93e15fb01 Matthew Graham Early Strength Thwarted by Data and Resilience in Equities There are several ways to view today's bond market movement and none of them are terribly important. Sharply lower oil prices had a small, friendly impact on bonds early in the day following more hopeful war-related headlines, but context is important. A 3-4 dollar drop in oil merely got 10yr yields back in line with overnight lows. In other words, there's still precious little correlation here. Oil reversed course fairly quickly and bonds got hit harder by strong JOLTS data (job openings and labor turnover survey). Correlation with tech stocks was minimal, but it didn't help that the NASDAQ inched higher from overnight lows throughout the session.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-11032026 Tue, 03 Nov 2026 13:57:16 GMT 6ae9f6f09f50a0a93e152dcd Matthew Graham Bonds were sideways to slightly weaker overnight, but they're rallying back to unchanged levels in the 8am hour following favorable headlines regarding the Iran war.  Iranian officials floated the possibility of concessions in exchange for sanctions relief and separate headlines suggested Washington approved a draft MOU.  Certainly not the first time we've seen such headlines, but oil prices are clearly responding, and much like yesterday, bonds seem at least somewhat willing to start rekindling their old fling with oil price correlation.   Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-11022026 Mon, 02 Nov 2026 21:27:05 GMT 6ae90ee89f50a0a93e13bde8 Matthew Graham Little-Moved by Huge Drop in Oil and Tech Stocks Bonds were technically stronger at 4pm ET, but just barely. Over the past 2 sessions, we've seen Treasury yields noticeably disconnect from the prevailing correlation with tech stocks. This began after the opening bell last Friday and mostly continued today. Bonds were generally improving while the NASDAQ was higher for most of the day and then sold off starting at 1pm when tech stocks saw their biggest losses (i.e. the opposite of the prevailing correlation). Part of the credit for the bond selling goes to the market's takeaway from Treasury's preliminary borrowing estimates which were $24 billion higher than expected before adjusting for estimated cash balances. Some of the earlier strength in bonds aligned with a sharp decline in oil. While it's true that oil has been the opposite of a reliable source of inspiration for bonds, today's drop was sharp enough to possibly make an exception.  Econ Data / Events Construction spending (Sep) -1.9% vs 0.4% f'cast, 0.9% prev ISM Manufacturing Employment (Oct) 52.4 vs -- f'cast, 52.7 prev ISM Manufacturing PMI (Oct) 55.5 vs 54.6 f'cast, 54.5 prev ISM Mfg Prices Paid (Oct) 75.2 vs 77 f'cast, 77.9 prev Market Movement Recap 03:21 PM Losing ground after Treasury released higher preliminary borrowing estimates with the 3pm quarterly refunding documents.   U.S. TREASURY ESTIMATES $739 BLN IN PRIVATELY HELD NET MARKETABLE BORROWING FOR JULY-SEPTEMBER 2026, ASSUMING AN END-SEPTEMBER CASH BALANCE OF $950 BLN, $68 BLN HIGHER THAN PROJECTED IN MAY, PRIMARILY DUE TO LOWER EXPECTED NET CASH FLOWS Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/mbs