http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ Mortgage News Daily https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06122026 Fri, 12 Jun 2026 19:34:24 GMT 6a2c6db0a6791958c505e82e Matthew Graham Minimal Deal Drama, But Next Week Could be Different Various headlines out of Iran pushed back on the notion that a preliminary peace deal was near the finish line this morning. This resulted in modest upward pressure on yields for the first several hours of the day. Then just before 11am, Iran's foreign minister said the media shouldn't speculate and that the deal has "never been closer." Trump subsequently reposted that news. This sent oil prices back toward the day's lows and helped bonds recover most the ground lost earlier this morning. Volatility was minimal in the bigger picture. We'd expect a much bigger reaction to an official signing--something that could happen in a matter of days or continue to be punted indefinitely. Econ Data / Events Consumer Sentiment (Jun) 48.9 vs 46 f'cast, 44.8 prev Sentiment: 1y Inflation (Jun) 4.6% vs -- f'cast, 4.8% prev Sentiment: 5y Inflation (Jun) 3.4% vs -- f'cast, 3.9% prev U Mich conditions (Jun) 48.4 vs 46.2 f'cast, 45.8 prev Market Movement Recap 08:43 AM Just a hair weaker overnight. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.3bps at 4.483 10:03 AM Weakest levels. MBS down 6 ticks (.19). 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.495 10:48 AM MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 3.5bps at 4.503 01:00 PM MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.482 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06122026 Fri, 12 Jun 2026 18:51:00 GMT 6a2c56f5157044030467e538 Matthew Graham Some national headlines are pointing out that mortgage rates are higher this week. Those are based on weekly survey data which can often be stale compared to daily rate movement. Actual average rates are now in line with last Thursday's levels of 6.58% for top tier 30yr fixed scenarios. That's just 0.02% higher than May 29th levels. You'd have to go back another 2 weeks to May 14th to see anything lower. What's the catch? It's pretty simple. While we may be near the low end of the 4 week range, that range lies at the highs of 10 month range. It's also reasonably narrow, running from 6.58 to 6.75%. This week's resilience is almost entirely due to progress toward peace in the Iran war. If a peace deal becomes official, there's more room for improvement.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/06122026-mortgage-applications-mba Fri, 12 Jun 2026 18:45:00 GMT 6a2c54cb157044030467e536 Matthew Graham Mortgage applications bounced higher last week after the holiday-shortened period, though the increase largely reflected a normalization in activity rather than a meaningful improvement in underlying demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 10.8% increase in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending June 5. The gain was led by refinance activity, which rose 15% from the previous week. Refinance demand was also 20% higher than the same period one year ago, showing that activity remains well ahead of last year’s pace despite continued rate volatility. Purchase demand also moved higher. The seasonally adjusted Purchase Index increased 7% week over week and was 4% above year-ago levels. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose to 6.60% from 6.57%, but borrowers still found pockets of opportunity as markets continued to react to developments in the Middle East. MBA’s Mike Fratantoni said mortgage rates were volatile last week, noting that “while the average rate was up slightly,” both refinance and purchase applications rebounded following the holiday week. Fratantoni added that the 30-year fixed rate now stands at 6.60%, while refinance and purchase activity each recovered from the prior week’s holiday-affected pace. Adjustable-rate mortgage activity also edged higher. The ARM index increased 12% over the week, and ARM share rose to 8.6% from 8.5%. Meanwhile, the refinance share of mortgage activity climbed to 40.2% from 38.0%. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/06122026-existing-home-sales-nar-inventory-prices-appr Fri, 12 Jun 2026 18:25:00 GMT 6a2c506c324dc8494117df97 Matthew Graham Existing-home sales picked up in May, rising to their highest level since December as improving affordability and steady household income gains continued to support demand. Sales increased 3.2% from April to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.17 million , and were also 3.2% higher than a year ago. “More Americans are on the move,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun, noting that sales reached their strongest pace since December. He said improving affordability is helping drive the momentum, adding that mortgage rates remain below last year’s level and are roughly in line with the long-term historical average. Inventory continued to improve in May, though supply remains relatively tight by historical standards. Total housing inventory rose to 1.55 million units , up 3.3% from April and 0.6% from a year earlier, representing a 4.5-month supply of homes. Home prices pushed to a fresh record high in May, underscoring still-solid demand against a backdrop of limited supply. The median existing-home price climbed to $429,300 , up 1.3% from a year ago and marking the 35th consecutive month of annual price gains. Affordability also improved year-over-year, with the Housing Affordability Index rising to 105.6 from 97.5 a year earlier. Yun said income gains are still outpacing home-price growth in most parts of the country, helping keep buyers in the market despite rates ticking up from earlier this year. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-06122026 Fri, 12 Jun 2026 15:48:16 GMT 6a2bfd8bad321c89d2a07771 Rob Chrisman Every time I use my credit card at the supermarket it can impact my credit score which were invented in 1958. What might be the credit score of the United States with its $1.78 trillion deficit in 2025? Gas stations and supermarkets are two daily places where we see inflation. Trader Joes, with its 630+ locations, is known for many things, not the least of which is its flowers and their prices. “Shrinkflation” has hit the chain, and anyone who has purchased flowers lately know that the bunches have gone down from, say, 12 flowers to 8. Either raise prices or make portions smaller… Yes, inflation is a problem, and lenders should know that, although the Fed doesn’t set mortgages rates, few, if any, experts predict that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut rates this year. That would add fuel to the inflationary pressures being created by both another foreign war and a deep-in-the-red federal budget that seemingly no one is concerned about balancing. I remember when the Republicans stood for fiscal restraint, but does anyone in politics care about the flood of newly created U.S. Treasury debt or reducing spending? (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by JazzX. From application to underwriting to post-close, JazzX is a new operating model that helps you scale growth, boost productivity, and transform how your team performs. Hear an interview with The Disciplined Investor’s Andrew Horowitz on how investors assess what assets to invest in, and a portfolio manager’s perspective on the current economic environment, and risk diversification as it pertains to MBS.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06122026 Fri, 12 Jun 2026 13:34:27 GMT 6a2c1950a6791958c50540d9 Matthew Graham Bonds were sideways at first in the overnight session. Then they improved moderately after newswires from Iran's Mehr news agency detailing some specifics of the peace deal, including the U.S. withdrawing forces from the area. Bonds then began selling as various push-back headlines popped up. Deal not completely confirmed. No location determined. Deal still under review. No signing day confirmed. etc... With nothing meaty on the calendar and no final signing even rumored to be in the cards until next week, we'll at least the next 3 days waiting for any legitimate rejection of the peace deal claims. So far, Iran's responses have fallen short of previous rejections. Therefore, the market is pretty sure we're close, and most of yesterday's gains are intact. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06112026 Thu, 11 Jun 2026 20:40:52 GMT 6a2b2b6ca6791958c503948a Matthew Graham Big Rally After More Forceful Peace Deal Announcement This morning's commentary noted Trump comments regarding planned air strikes for today. Bonds reacted, but maintained some skepticism. That proved to be a good instinct. At roughly 1:30pm, Trump said the air strikes were cancelled and that all parties had agreed on a deal, and that a time/place for signing would be announced shortly. There wasn't as much push back against those claims by foreign sources as we've often seen in response to similar claims of deals being reached. Stocks surged. Oil plummeted. 10yr yields dropped another 8bps for a total of more than 10 on the day. Almost every lender repriced by a healthy amount. Now we wait for whammies or no whammies.  Econ Data / Events Continued Claims (May)/30 1,795K vs 1780K f'cast, 1777K prev Core PPI m/m (May) 0.4% vs 0.5% f'cast, 1% prev Core PPI y/y (May) 4.9% vs 5.4% f'cast, 5.2% prev Jobless Claims (Jun)/06 229K vs 219K f'cast, 225K prev PPI m/m (May) 1.1% vs 0.7% f'cast, 1.4% prev PPI y/y (May) 6.5% vs 6.4% f'cast, 6% prev Market Movement Recap 08:45 AM Initially weaker after PPI and war headlines, but finding some footing. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.527 01:03 PM MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.7bps at 4.537.  Weakest levels since this morning 01:51 PM MBS up half a point and 10yr down 8.2bps at 4.472 03:24 PM MBS up 5/8ths. 10yr down 10.2bps at 4.453 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06112026 Thu, 11 Jun 2026 20:00:00 GMT 6a2b15f8434b29dedc2b1a48 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates began the day in uneventful fashion with the average lender right in line with yesterday's latest levels. Things might have gotten off to a slightly better start, but higher inflation in this morning's econ data and discouraging war-related headlines put upward pressure on bond yields (yields and rates are technically the same thing and they move in the same direction). The bulk of the day remained uneventful but that changed abruptly at 1:30pm when news circulated that Trump cancelled today's planned air strikes and said that both sides had approved final details of a permanent ceasefire, and that a time/place of a deal signing would be announced shortly. Markets reacted swiftly with stocks rallying, oil falling, and rates dropping. Mortgage lenders prefer to set rates only once per day, but they will make mid-day changes if the underlying bond market makes a big enough move. Today's was easily big enough, and a vast majority of lenders made friendly revisions to their daily rate offerings in short order. The net effect brough the average lender to the lowest levels since last Thursday. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-06112026 Thu, 11 Jun 2026 14:51:01 GMT 6a2aace7045c61355598b986 Rob Chrisman Broker and Lender Products, Software, and Services On the PGA Tour, the player who enters Sunday’s final round in first place only goes on to win about one-third of the time. Getting close and finishing the job are two different things. Optimal Blue's May Market Advantage report found a similar dynamic in mortgage pipelines: Purchase loans accounted for more than 81 percent of total lock volume, while refinance share fell to its lowest level since June 2025. But the more notable shift came after borrowers locked. Purchase pull-through fell 539 bps month over month, while refinance pull-through dropped 1,332 bps. On the secondary side, cash executions gained share at the expense of agency MBS executions in May. See the full scorecard here. Equity Prime Mortgage (EPM) doubled their underwriting output without adding headcount. The key was rethinking where skilled underwriters actually spend their time. By embedding the ICE Mortgage Analyzers into their Encompass® workflow, EPM automated routine data validation and cut turn times from five to six days down to 24 hours. For lenders looking to scale, their story is a practical example of what the right tools, implemented with intention, can make possible. Read the customer story to see how they did it. “Purchase volume is tight, and rates are not giving you much room to work with. So where are you finding your next deals? There is $34.5 trillion in home equity across the country, and $14.5 trillion of it sits with seniors. This is also the group driving a large share of today’s mortgage activity. But here is the challenge: many of these borrowers are boxed in by DTI ratios on traditional products. However, with a reverse mortgage, scenarios that would normally be dead ends could still be viable. Getting started comes down to recognizing these opportunities and knowing how to respond when they show up. Fill out the form, and we will reach out to walk you through it step by step. Finance of America | NMLS 2285” Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06112026 Thu, 11 Jun 2026 13:44:13 GMT 6a2aca28a6791958c502d527 Matthew Graham Bonds were reasonably stronger in the overnight session with 10yr yields down roughly 4bps from 4.56 to 4.52. About 8 minutes before the PPI data came out, a series of Trump comments on the Iran war sent oil prices and bond yields higher (new strikes and intent to take Kharg Island). PPI added to the pressure with the monthly headline hitting 1.1% vs 0.7% forecast. The fact that core PPI came in at 0.4% vs 0.7% last month tells us that energy prices are the main driver (as does the text of the report itself, oddly enough). In fact, both energy and goods inflation are running higher than post-pandemic. But the market assumes these can still be relatively short-lived spikes if the war ends. Reason being, even though goods inflation is the highest in decades (month over month), that includes energy-related goods.  Bonds had already gone through this mental math and found their footing about 6 minutes after the data. A few minutes later, Trump made additional comments that helped push back in the other direction. With that, bonds have regained most of the ground lost earlier this morning. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full