http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ Mortgage News Daily https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-07222026 Wed, 22 Jul 2026 15:43:45 GMT 6a60bb7083593ed1039490e8 Rob Chrisman There’s always something in the news, whether it is Jimothy the raccoon in the Northwest, or the Canadian wildfire smoke in the Northeast which coincided with more tariffs directed at Canada. Homebuilders, and those who lend to them, know that materials from Canada are already subject to tariffs, but the new tariffs could affect building materials such as (primarily) cement, doors, heating and ventilation equipment, glass, and plywood products. Speaking of building, the artificial intelligence boom in the United States is being matched by a data center building boom. There are more than 3,000 data centers in the U.S. and another 1,500 in development, according to a Pew Research Center analysis. Properties and land are being consumed by using Eminent Domain (for the public use?), once again demonstrating the intersection of the government, law, and lending. Today, on Lender One’s Mortgage Matters at 11AM PT, Mitchell Sandler's Ari Karen discusses the mortgage litigation space, potential updates to RESPA, and storm clouds with AI from a legal perspective. (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are sponsored by JazzX, the first true end-to-end AI platform built for mortgage. From application to closing, JazzX is a new operating model that helps you scale growth, boost productivity, and transform how your team performs. Today’s has an Interview with Pivot Financial's Jennifer McGuinness-Lubbert on the importance of data integration, diversification beyond traditional Agency products to meet borrower needs, and customer-centric approaches in the evolving mortgage landscape.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-07222026 Wed, 22 Jul 2026 14:18:17 GMT 6a60dfdca6791958c5591f15 Matthew Graham For those not interested in overcomplicating things, it's fair enough to simply observe the resurgence of hostilities in the Iran war prompting a resurgence of fuel prices and bond selling due to inflation expectations. Earnings season in equities has added to volatility in the 9:30am-10am hour on each of the past 2 mornings. We seem to be breaking from that trend today, but stock/bond volatility could easily return for better or worse. Last but not least, there are ultra-big-picture strategic considerations that may be having an impact at a glacial pace in the background. The latest example would be Jamie Dimon saying he wouldn't buy long bonds given the risks posed by an unsustainable fiscal path. But that is a small consideration that may only be adding modest yield curve steepening. December Fed Funds Futures suggest the market is truly repricing inflation risks after getting too excited about last week's CPI/PPI. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-07212026 Tue, 21 Jul 2026 21:06:02 GMT 6a5fee74a6791958c55776cc Matthew Graham Headwinds, Cont'd "Headwinds, Cont'd" could be apply to the entirety of 2022-2026 or just March-July of 2026. But let's just focus on today's installment. For the second day this week, there wasn't any stellar correlation between bonds and other markets, econ data, or news headlines. Still, we wouldn't say that today's moderate weakness was a mystery move. In fact, it may even be fairly straightforward. Fuel prices came into the week at the highest level since May 19th (which was the highest since 2022). Front month oil futures spiked in the early AM hours and the peak coincided with the peak in bond yields. Additionally, bonds sold off at 9:30am for the second straight day, suggesting some tradeflow considerations surrounding the NYSE open and earnings season money shuffling.  Market Movement Recap 08:48 AM Modestly weaker overnight. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.2bps at 4.605 09:57 AM near weakest levels. MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 3.7bps at 4.631 02:41 PM Sideways after earlier weakness.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 3.8bps at 4.631 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07212026 Tue, 21 Jul 2026 19:29:00 GMT 6a5fcaa56e4a96a069f7ba5b Matthew Graham In late July, 2025, 30yr fixed rates embarked on an excellent adventure, moving down from 6.75% on July 31st to 5.99% by late February, 2026. Since then, things haven't been great thanks to war-related fuel price drama and stronger econ data (the supreme court ruling on tariffs didn't help either, because it increased Treasury issuance implications). Regardless of motivations, the net effect was a return to 6.75% on May 19th, 2026. Momentum has been fairly sideways since then, with the 6.75% level being revisited last Monday and now again today.  For those who want to keep the analysis simple, fuel prices do a good enough job explaining the move. In fact, August gasoline futures also just hit their May 19th highs this week--perfectly aligning with the round trip in rates. For those who want a bit more precision, we can also consider earnings season in the stock market which has created trading patterns among money managers that have pulled money out of the bond market over the past 2 days (bond selling = higher rates, all else equal). [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-07212026 Tue, 21 Jul 2026 15:49:11 GMT 6a5f67aae47ef91fbe0c4139 Rob Chrisman People who say that residential lending and the state or federal governments aren’t intertwined have to look no further than the CFPB.  Their new office spaces fit 550. There are 1,100 currently. They will get there? Theoretically only Congress can actually shut down the CFPB, in the Senate with 60 or more votes, and the CFPB is still functioning with a regulatory agenda… which doesn’t include RESPA! 1974’s RESPA could be too tough to eliminate, especially Section 8, the anti-kickback provision and no one wants to come out against that. On today’s Mortgage Law Today (3 PM ET), presented by Polunsky Beitel Green, panelists will have a debate on the future of RESPA Section 8, examining whether the regulation still serves its intended purpose or if the mortgage industry would be better served by reform. Join Phillip Schulman, Senior Counsel at Mayer Brown, and Suzanne Garwood, Managing Director at JPMorgan Chase, join Brian Levy, Loretta Salzano, and Marty Green. Tomorrow, on Lender One’s Mortgage Matters at 11AM PT, NewFed’s Chief Strategy Officer Rick Scherer, CMB, will address tech-driven innovation, setting and implementing strategy, and companies striving to grab market share. (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are sponsored by JazzX, the first true end-to-end AI platform built for mortgage. From application to underwriting, JazzX is a new operating model that helps you scale growth, boost productivity, and transform how your team performs. Today’s has an interview with Climative’s Winston Morton on turning homeowner demand for energy and resilience upgrades into qualified financing opportunities.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-07212026 Tue, 21 Jul 2026 13:26:52 GMT 6a5f82a4a6791958c556a3e2 Matthew Graham While last week's CPI and PPI reports were unabashedly great news, the bond market spent Friday and yesterday gradually unwinding most of the resulting gains. The least complicated way to approach this phenomenon would be to observe that fuel prices spent the same 2 days breaking to the highest levels since May 19th and they continue to hold near those highs today. Even without that fuel price rally, we were already skeptical that June inflation data was a durable justification for lower yields in light of the resurgence of the Iran war in July and the associated resurgence of inflation risks. As we discussed last week in the "crack spread" article, the x factor here is the fact that consumer fuel prices are doing much worse than oil prices suggest. A chart of 10yr yields vs gasoline futures makes this clear.  In this context, bonds are actually a bit stronger than the May 19th correlation suggested. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-07202026 Mon, 20 Jul 2026 19:53:58 GMT 6a5e8b60a6791958c554f048 Matthew Graham New Week. Same Old Story While we certainly CAN put short term market movement under a microscope and entertain various potential sources of motivation, it's just as good to take a few giant steps back and observe the bigger picture trend. When we do, we see a decisively weaker trend since October 2025 with additional volatility and selling pressure after the start of the Iran war. Unsurprisingly resurgence of hostilities has put upward pressure on both fuel prices and bond yields. This is definitely one of those "under the microscope" market movers at the start of the week. There were also some tradeflow considerations regardless of news headlines. This was seen in the form of both stocks and bonds noticeably shifting just after 9:30am. Until that point, stocks were improving and bonds were doing a decent job holding sideways. Afterward, both lost ground. Market Movement Recap 09:17 AM modestly weaker overnight. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 2.1bps at 4.567 11:41 AM MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 4.7bps at 4.593 02:49 PM MBS down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 5.2bps at 4.597 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07202026 Mon, 20 Jul 2026 19:10:00 GMT 6a5e73a5802f0deca290b9ba Matthew Graham Last week ended on a promising note with Friday's rates falling just barely below the previous Friday's levels. This was a relief after the top-tier 30yr fixed rate matched 11-month highs for the average lender earlier in the week. Unfortunately, rates are starting the new week by heading back toward those highs. Our 30yr fixed rate index is up from 6.63% on Friday to 6.71% today. Many lenders raised rates in the middle of the day in response to weakness in the bond market. In general, that weakness is underpinned by renewed fighting in Iran (or more specifically, the effect of that fighting on fuel prices). [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-07202026 Mon, 20 Jul 2026 15:50:49 GMT 6a5e15fc7e13284cfcfd9bb4 Rob Chrisman Dang. I don’t know why I put my entire retirement plan into SpaceX stock… it has lost $1 trillion in book value since its post-IPO high. In 2026 Fannie’s stock price is down 44 percent, and Freddie’s stock price is down 46 percent. Did you sink your 401(k) into either, when doing a “re-IPO” was the talk of the Trump Administration? (Speaking of Fannie, rumors are flying that Fannie Lender Letter LL-2026-04 on AI will be followed by a more prescriptive framework.) One would hope that the industry has input into Freddie and Fannie’s activities. Mortgage leaders have limited influence over many of the forces dominating today's housing debate: They cannot directly control interest rates, housing inventory, inflation, or the pace of legislative reform. But they can direct how effectively their organizations prepare for technological disruption. The lenders that spend the coming years waiting for external solutions to affordability challenges may find themselves reacting to change rather than shaping it. By contrast, those that invest now in AI-ready operating models, governance structures, and workforce capabilities will be positioned to create lasting competitive advantages regardless of the broader economic environment. Housing policy will remain important, but the defining strategic decisions of the next decade are increasingly likely to occur not in Washington, but within the institutions responsible for financing homeownership itself. (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are sponsored by JazzX, the first true end-to-end AI platform built for mortgage. From application to underwriting, JazzX is a new operating model that helps you scale growth, boost productivity, and transform how your team performs. Today’s has an interview with the Institutional Risk Analyst’s Chris Whalen on the fallout from the Two Harbors servicing deal, further consolidation in the mortgage industry, and dominos to fall as companies race to grab market share.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-07202026 Mon, 20 Jul 2026 14:12:03 GMT 6a5e3bb0a6791958c5545314 Matthew Graham You've seen the "good vibes only" t-shirt perhaps? Bond traders left theirs at home this morning. That's unfortunate as there isn't much beyond vibes to set the tone this week. Over the weekend, bad vibes came courtesy of another round of escalation in the Iran war. Additionally, the safe-haven buying that helped bonds on Friday has reversed course somewhat as stocks find their footing. At 7:30am, news of a proposed 10-day ceasefire caused yields and fuel prices to drop quickly but not excessively.  30 minutes later, the move was reversed after Houthis declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. 10yr yields are starting out several bps higher and MBS are down about an eighth. On the bright side, there's still quite a bit of room for yields to find a supportive ceiling between current levels and recent highs. And if we instead use the gloomier approach via the 9 month uptrend in yields, there's even more room to rally back toward the lower end of this trend channel. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full