Mortgage Rates Fall Back to 2-Week Lows
July 29, 2016
Market Summary
If you follow along with this weekly synopsis, you might have noticed a bit of hesitation on my part last week when it came to "ringing the alarm bells" for rates continuing their recent move higher. The reason was simple: while rates did indeed hit 2-week highs last week, they did so in a very cautious manner. It suggested that we might be generally sideways until this week's Fed Announcement, and indeed that was the case.
Fortunately, the Fed was rate-friendly, or at least the market read the Fed as such. Rates rallied with conviction on Thursday and Friday, ultimately making it back to 2-week lows by the end of the week.
Next week brings important economic data, including the big jobs report on Friday. Even though Traders downgraded the probability of a Fed rate hike this week, next week's data could counteract that, if it happens to be strong enough. Of course, if the data is weaker, it would only fuel the fledgling momentum that began to take flight at the end of this week. The point is we have another set of variables on deck that can push rates in either direction.
-Matt Graham, Mortgage News Daily
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
Week in Review
Rates shown below are based on the 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
Beginning Average:
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3.44%
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Ending Average: |
3.37% |
Weekly Change: |
-0.07% |
Yearly Change: |
-0.57% |
Friday, July 22, 2016 : 3.44% (+0.00%)
Mortgage rates didn't budge, compared to yesterday's, which leaves them in line with their highest levels since late June. A small majority lenders have moved up from quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates of 3.375% to 3.5% during the course of this week, and a several are already as high as 3.625% for top tier scenarios. That's about as stratified as it gets when it comes to each lenders' best possible rate on any given scenario. The stratification is a product of market volatility, all-time lows in benchmark rates (like US Treasuries) earlier this month, and varying lender strategies with respect to their business flow.
Monday, July 25, 2016 : 3.44% (+0.00%)
Mortgage rates were unchanged again today, making three out of the past 4 days where rates haven't budged and 6 out of the past 7 days where rates moved by 0.01% or less, on average. That's an exceptionally narrow range, and it speaks to indecision in financial markets ahead of this week's major central bank announcements. That's where the Fed and the Bank of Japan give the official word on their monetary policy, which includes setting short term rates and spelling out various stimulus efforts.
Tuesday, July 26, 2016 : 3.45% (+0.01%)
Mortgage rates moved slightly higher today, and are now effectively at the highest levels in month. That sounds a bit more dire than it is, though, because there hasn't been much movement in the bigger picture--especially over the past few days. In fact, there's quite a good chance that you'd receive the same quote today as you would have late last week. For most borrowers, that's in the mid 3.5% neighborhood when it comes to conventional, 30yr fixed loans.
Wednesday, July 27, 2016 : 3.44% (-0.01%)
Mortgage rates moved slightly lower today, although that's only true for lenders who issued mid-day improvements following the Fed's policy announcement. Markets were, by no means, expecting the Fed to hike rates today, but there was a decent enough chance they would telegraph their intention to hike. Such a move is certainly in the Fed's playbook, but if that's what they were shooting for today, it didn't show.
Thursday, July 28, 2016 : 3.39% (-0.05%)
Mortgage rates fell at the quickest pace in more than a month today as lenders priced-in the market improvements seen after yesterday's Fed Announcement. Even though quite a few lenders offered improvements yesterday afternoon, the so-called "reprices" were conservative compared to improvements implied by trading levels in mortgage-backed-securities (the bonds that most directly affect mortgage rates).
Friday, July 29, 2016 : 3.37% (-0.02%)
Mortgage rates enjoyed another strong day, falling to the best levels in exactly 2 weeks. Rates were actually set to move higher early this morning, but a much weaker-than-expected reading on Q2 GDP helped drive demand for bonds. Better buying pushes bond prices higher and rates lower. The strength in bond markets gave lenders the peace of mind needed in order to offer even better terms than yesterday. The most prevalent conventional 30yr fixed rate is quickly returning to 3.375% on top tier scenarios.
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Today's Rates
30 Yr FRM
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3.37%
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-0.02
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15 Yr FRM
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2.72%
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-0.02
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FHA 30 Year Fixed
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3.25%
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+0.00
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Jumbo 30 Year Fixed
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3.50%
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-0.02
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5/1 Yr ARM
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2.84%
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-0.01
|
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Average Mortgage Rates
15 Yr. Fixed
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3.37%
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1.26
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-0.14
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30 Yr. Fixed
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3.95%
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1.30
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-0.16
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30 Yr. Fixed
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3.82%
|
0.34
|
-0.05
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15 Yr. Fixed
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3.06%
|
0.33
|
-0.07
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30 Yr. Jumbo
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3.74%
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0.31
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-0.05
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30 Yr. FHA
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3.64%
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0.25
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-0.05
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5/1 ARM
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2.93%
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0.22
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+0.02
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30 Yr. Fixed
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3.48%
|
0.50
|
+0.03
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15 Yr. Fixed
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2.78%
|
0.50
|
+0.03
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1 Yr. ARM
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2.68%
|
0.20
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+0.01
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5/1 Yr. ARM
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2.78%
|
0.50
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+0.00
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* FHFA averages are updated monthly. ** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
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Secondary Markets
30YR FNMA 3.0
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104.06
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+0.25
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30YR FNMA 3.5
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105.63
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+0.20
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30YR GNMA 3.0
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104.94
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+0.31
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30YR GNMA 3.5
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106.34
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+0.22
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15YR FNMA 3.0
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104.92
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+0.09
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15YR FNMA 2.5
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103.59
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+0.19
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2 YR
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0.6632%
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-0.0513
|
5 YR
|
1.0253%
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-0.0610
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10 YR
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1.4548%
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-0.0513
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30 YR
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2.1827%
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-0.0477
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Prices as of: 7/29/2016 4:31PM EST
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