Mortgage Rates end Month Near Lows
May 29, 2015
Market Summary
Mortgage rates had recently been repeating an eerily similar pattern where they would rise abruptly at the beginning of the week and fall reassuringly at the end. That cycle was finally broken this week.
It was all a bit anticlimactic. There was no high-energy trading event that caused bonds to rocket lower in yield. Instead, we saw a very uneventful trickle, but one that moved consistently in our favor. By Friday afternoon, the average lender was back to quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates of 3.875% on top tier scenarios, matching their best offerings in at least 3 weeks.
Big questions remain as far as where we go from here. Late April and most of May have been a wake up call for anyone who thought rates would continue making new lows throughout 2015. During that time, I've been almost exclusively in favor of locking by way of defensive necessity. The fact is when markets move like they have been, there's always some chance that it will develop into something even uglier. While that looks less and less like the case now, I would still advocate viewing it as a warning shot for a bigger, badder move higher in the future. The next major input may be decided by next week's key events, which include the big Jobs report on Friday.
-Matthew Graham, COO, Mortgage News Daily
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
Week in Review
Rates shown below are based on the 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
Beginning Average:
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3.98%
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Ending Average: |
3.93% |
Weekly Change: |
-0.05% |
Yearly Change: |
-0.13% |
Friday, May 22, 2015 : 3.98% (+0.00%)
Mortgage rates were unchanged on average today, though some lenders were slightly higher or lower than yesterday's latest rate sheets. This is a small victory considering that underlying markets suggested rates should move slightly higher. Mortgage rates are most directly affected by mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) which tend to trade in line with US Treasuries. After this morning's slightly stronger inflation data, bond markets moved lower in price and higher in yield--a classic reaction to that type of data. The most frequently-quoted conventional 30yr fixed rate remains 4.0% for top tier scenarios, though several lenders are an eighth of a point higher or lower.
Tuesday, May 26, 2015 : 3.97% (-0.01%)
Mortgage rates were just slightly lower in most cases today. Last Friday, rates did a bit better than the underlying market weakness would have suggested, and now today, they've done a bit worse than the underlying strength would suggest, leaving them right about where they should be if the past two business days never happened. The most prevalently-quoted conventional 30yr fixed rate remains 4.0% with some lenders continuing to offer 3.875%. In most cases, the differences in rates over the past few days will only be seen in the form of varying closing costs as opposed to changes in the actual contract rate.
Wednesday, May 27, 2015 : 3.97% (+0.00%)
Mortgage rates moved sideways-to-slightly lower in most cases today, but only after underlying bond markets fought back from morning weakness. Before that, most lenders were offering slightly higher rates than yesterday, though the differences would be seen in the form of closing costs as opposed to in the rate itself. 4.0% remains the most prevalent conventional 30yr fixed quote for top tier scenarios. This has been a line in the sand, blocking rates from a more substantial recovery after they spiked in early May.
Thursday, May 28, 2015 : 3.96% (-0.01%)
Mortgage rates barely budged today. Those that budged moved almost imperceptibly lower from yesterday's latest rate sheets. In general, there was simply very little movement in underlying markets and lenders' rate sheets matched the tone.
Ironically, Freddie Mac's weekly rate survey results came out this morning indicating higher rates. Keep in mind that the Freddie survey receives most of it's responses early in the week and then reports on Thursday mornings. That means that any changes in rates over the intervening days are not captured in the data. In the current case, it's not that rates have moved significantly lower in the past few days, but more to do with the fact that last week's Freddie survey didn't capture the brunt of the rise in rates that occurred on Tuesday.
Friday, May 29, 2015 : 3.93% (-0.03%)
Mortgage rates moved lower again today, making this the 7th straight day where rates have either held steady or improved. Over that time, no single day stands out as clearly better than the others. Instead, the gains have been slow, steady, and varied by lender to a greater degree than normal. Despite the slow and steady pace, the improvement has been meaningful. Not only are today's rates the lowest in more than three weeks, they also bring 3.875% back into the picture as the most prevalently-quoted conventional 30yr fixed rate. That said, there are still quite a few lenders at 4.0%.
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Today's Rates
30 Yr FRM
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3.93%
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-0.03
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15 Yr FRM
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3.19%
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-0.02
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FHA 30 Year Fixed
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3.60%
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-0.15
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Jumbo 30 Year Fixed
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3.75%
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-0.02
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5/1 Yr ARM
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2.96%
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-0.01
|
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Average Mortgage Rates
15 Yr. Fixed
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3.38%
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1.18
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+0.05
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30 Yr. Fixed
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3.95%
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1.30
|
+0.04
|
30 Yr. Fixed
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4.04%
|
0.32
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+0.04
|
15 Yr. Fixed
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3.26%
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0.30
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+0.03
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30 Yr. Jumbo
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4.04%
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0.25
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+0.05
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30 Yr. FHA
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3.80%
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0.06
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+0.04
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5/1 ARM
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2.99%
|
0.45
|
-0.01
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30 Yr. Fixed
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3.87%
|
0.60
|
+0.03
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15 Yr. Fixed
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3.11%
|
0.50
|
+0.06
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1 Yr. ARM
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2.50%
|
0.30
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-0.01
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5/1 Yr. ARM
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2.90%
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0.50
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+0.02
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* FHFA averages are updated monthly. ** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
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Secondary Markets
30YR FNMA 3.0
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101.27
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+0.11
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30YR FNMA 3.5
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104.42
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+0.05
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30YR GNMA 3.0
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102.23
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+0.09
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30YR GNMA 3.5
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104.77
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+0.09
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15YR FNMA 3.0
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104.42
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+0.08
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15YR FNMA 2.5
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102.14
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+0.08
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2 YR
|
0.6092%
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-0.0197
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5 YR
|
1.4837%
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-0.0293
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10 YR
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2.1232%
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-0.0140
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30 YR
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2.8826%
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-0.0062
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Prices as of: 5/29/2015 4:32PM EST
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