Mortgage rates moved modestly lower on average today after doing an admirable job of holding their ground amid weaker market conditions yesterday.  That weakness was largely the result of a technical correction to the immense strength seen after Wednesday's Fed Announcement and Press Conference.  The following two days have essentially legitimized that strength as something other than a temporary knee jerk reaction.

While that legitimacy doesn't necessarily guarantee rates move lower from here, it guarantees that lower rates remain possible.  While it's true that rates can always move lower, that wouldn't be as likely if the past two days saw a quick move back to pre-FOMC levels.

Mortgage rates continued lower today, reaching levels not seen since February 9th.  This further solidifies the positive move that followed last week's FOMC Announcement and Press Conference and offers ongoing confirmation that the disconcerting trend toward higher rates that began in February is defeated.  While that doesn't necessarily have any implications as to the direction of the next trend, it does mean that we're no longer following the same steep and steady path toward higher rates.

The bond markets that underlie mortgage rates were relatively quiet today despite some volatility in other markets.  Typically, the moves in those other markets would result in more weakness for bonds, and thus imply higher rates.

Mortgage rates fell again today, extending an exceptionally strong 2+ week move back to lower levels after an exceptionally weak 5 week move to 2015 highs.  The previous trend topped out after the big jobs report released on March 6th, and we've moved lower or held steady on all but one day since then.  For the record, that's 11 out of 12 winning days for rates--not the sort of trend we see too often.  It's increasingly likely that the trend will be interrupted (meaning a step back toward higher rates), but it's more difficult to say if that would be a brief correction or the beginning of a broader bounce.

Any lender with a pulse is back down to 3.75% at the very least and many have moved on to 3.625% in terms of the most common conventional 30yr fixed rates.

Mortgage rates  finally moved noticeably higher today, something they haven't done on 11 out of the last 12 days.  Yesterday, I pointed out that such a winning streak is not the sort of thing we see too often, and that a step back toward higher rates was increasingly likely.  This, then, is that step, but the same difficult question remains.  Will it simply be a brief correction or the beginning of a broader bounce?

As of this evening, the magnitude of the weakness and the volume behind it are just barely getting up to levels where they shouldn't be disregarded as a mere course correction.  That's still the least defensible of the two options though.  Reason being: even after today's losses, the recent downtrend leading back from 2015's highest rates in early March remains intact.  It would take another similar day of weakness to call that trend into question.

Mortgage rates rose rapidly today, almost completely erasing the improvement following last week's Fed Announcement.  This is especially ironic considering most major media outlets are running Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey headline.  Because that survey receives most of its responses on Monday and Tuesday, it fully benefited from the stronger levels earlier in the week after having totally missed out on last Wednesday and Thursday's big move lower.  As such, the headlines suggest that rates are significantly lower this week.  That was certainly true on Tuesday afternoon, but rates have risen roughly an eighth of a point since then.  That's a big move considering we've gone entire months without moving more than an eighth.

Mortgage rates had one of their least exciting days of the week today, moving just modestly lower from yesterday's latest levels.  The trading range in underlying markets was exceptionally narrow, especially when compared to the week's previous activity.  The final revision of 2014's 4th quarter GDP was released this morning, but it was close to forecasts and didn't produce much of a reaction.  Fed Chair Yellen spoke in the afternoon, saying that a rate hike would indeed likely be warranted in 2015.  By now, this is old news for financial markets.  Few, if any, eyelashes were batted.

3.75% remains the most prevalently-quoted conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier scenarios.  For the lenders that moved up to 3.875% yesterday, today's modest gains didn't bring them any lower.  The only improvements were seen in the form of closing costs.  Even then, several lenders are actually worse off today, despite trading levels improving.