Mortgage rates were higher again today with multiple lenders making additional upward adjustments in the middle of the day in response to bond market volatility. The prices/yields of certain bonds are the primary building blocks for lenders as they determine where to set mortgage rates every day.
Bonds respond to a variety of inputs, with the broad notion of "the economy" being one of the perennial favorites. Traders track changes in the economic outlook via various reports that are released at regular intervals. Of those reports, not one is remotely on the same stage as the Employment Situation (or simply "the jobs report"). It's due out tomorrow at 8:30am ET.
At the risk of stating the obvious, if the payroll count is much higher than expected, interest rates are more likely to see upward pressure, and vice versa. Economists are expecting that number to be 650k. Incidentally, that was the same forecast for this morning's ADP employment report (which is a private sector attempt to predict the government's payroll number a few days in advance). The actual ADP number? 978k. Granted, there are multiple examples of ADP inaccurately predicting a surge in payrolls in the big jobs report, but if nothing else, it's proof of concept that big departures from the consensus are in play. If tomorrow's jobs number is that big of a departure, rates would have a hard time avoiding another move higher.