September 3, 2019
Mortgage rates had to endure some paradoxical momentum and delayed reaction to the broader bond market rally lately, but now, it's payback time! Not only have mortgagees been able to move lower over the past 4 days, but they've done so even as Treasury yields remained flat. More simply put, 10yr Treasury yields ended the day just over 1.45% on last Wednesday. Today's comparable closing level of 1.46%. Mortgage rates, on the other hand, are down 0.08-0.11% over the same time frame, depending on the lender. While it's not a massive improvement versus Friday's latest levels, today's average offering is nonetheless the best in 3 years.
Loan Originator Perspective
Bonds were boosted by weak ISM data this morning, and both treasuries and MBS held their gains through closing. My pricing was incrementally better than Friday's. While tomorrow doesn't hold much data, Thursday/Friday do, including the August NFP report. I am locking September closings, going case by case on October loans. As always, if you like your pricing, lock your rate and don't look back. - Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 3.5 - 3.625%
- FHA/VA - 3.25-3.5%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.125 - 3.375%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.25-3.75% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- 2019 has been the best year for mortgage rates since 2011. Big, long-lasting improvements such as this one are increasingly susceptible to bounces/corrections.
- Fed policy and the US/China trade war have been key players
- The Fed and the bond market (which dictates rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad, as well as trade war updates. The stronger the data and trade relations, the more rates could rise, while weaker data and trade wars will lead to new long-term lows.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.