June 13, 2019
Mortgage rates moved lower for the 2nd straight day, which brings them back in line with Monday's levels. While these aren't quite the lowest rates of the past 2 weeks, they're much closer than they were on Tuesday morning. That means the average lender is nearly able to offer the lowest rates since September 2017!
In the slightly bigger picture, underlying bond markets seem to be consolidating after the aggressive move to lower rates 2 weeks ago. In other words, if we can look past some of the recent volatility, the general trend has been sideways for nearly 2 weeks now. This is a good thing because, again, the "sideways" is happening at long-term lows for rates. All things being equal, that's a sign that the market is at least willing to see rates move even lower.
Whether or not rates do indebed move lower likely depends on the incoming data and events in the coming weeks. Tomorrow brings a somewhat significant example in the form of the latest report on Retail Sales, but next week's Fed Announcement (and press conference and forecasts) is the biggest flashpoint on the near-term horizon. In general, the weaker the economic data and the more aggressive/concerned the Fed appears, the better it would be for rates.
Loan Originator Perspective
Currently locking in gains as the market determines which direction it is headed. - Al W Hensling
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 3.875% - 4.00%
- FHA/VA - 3.75%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.75-3.875%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.875-4.25% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- Early 2019 saw a rapid reevaluation of big-picture trends in rates and in markets in general
- The Federal Reserve has been a key player, and while they aren't the ones pulling the global economic strings, their response (and even their EXPECTED response) to the economy has helped rates fall more quickly than they otherwise might.
- Based on the Fed's laundry list of concerns, the bond market (which determines rates) will be watching economic data closely, both at home and abroad, as well as trade-related concerns. The stronger the data and trade relations, the more rates could rise, while weaker data and trade wars will lead to new long-term lows.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.