September 29, 2017
Mortgage rates moved lower today, even though underlying bond markets (which ultimately drive rates) suggested a move higher. This happens from time to time and it's usually a factor of timing. Today is no different.
Bond markets were improving throughout the day yesterday, but started out at much weaker levels. Bond market weakness is associated with higher rates. As such, yesterday's rates were the highest we'd seen in roughly 2 months. As bonds improved throughout the day, many lenders abstained when it arguably became time to release friendlier rate sheets.
When that happens, lenders become more likely to pass along the market gains the following morning--assuming the market gains make it through the night. That was the case today, and it allowed lenders to put rates back in line with the second-best levels of the week. Is that much movement? No, not at all. In fact, most borrowers probably won't notice much of a change on loan quotes outside the upfront costs. The actual interest rate being quoted should be the same as yesterday.
Loan Originator Perspective
Bonds sold off today, worsening pricing, despite weak inflation data released this morning. It appear bond traders are sipping giant gulps of tax-reform/economic growth kool-aid, despite the uncertainty of actual passage and the final details. In any case, have to play defense here, locking early is still the call. Float at your own risk. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 3.875-4.0%
- FHA/VA - 3.5%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.25%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 2.75 - 3.25% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- 2017 has proven to be a relatively good year for mortgage rates despite widespread expectations for a stronger push higher after the presidential election in late 2016. Most of the rate spike was done by the end of 2016 and we've generally moved sideways to lower since then
- The biggest question is whether or not this counter-intuitive trend has an expiration date. Rates haven't been immune from brief corrections back toward higher levels, and each correction causes concern that the good times are over.
- Despite those concerns, we've seen rates make new lows in April, June, and September. Although rates have been rising since early September, they'd have to move even higher before we'd consider a change in the bigger picture theme.
- All of the above having been said, past precedent suggests we're due for a much bigger dose of volatility some time soon.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.