June 21, 2017
Mortgage rates have been locked in an exceptionally narrow range for most of the month of June, but especially over the past 5 days. Given that mortgage rates are determined by the bond market where trading levels move constantly throughout the day, it can be useful to consider what's been happening with those trading levels. Long story short, they haven't been remotely close to moving any higher or lower than the highs and lows seen last Wednesday.
In other words, Wednesday's range set the boundaries of the current playing field for rates, and they haven't left the field since then. In terms of actual changes in mortgage rates, we're talking about a few tenths of a percent in either direction, and that's in terms of EFFECTIVE rate (the actual interest rate plus the loan-related upfront costs). Rates themselves have been completely unchanged with lenders quoting conventional 30 yr fixed rates of 3.875-4.0% on top tier scenarios.
The absence of change continues to be a good thing given that rates remain very close to their lowest levels in more than 8 months. Only a handful of recent days have been any better. 4.0% is the most prevalently-quoted conventional 30yr fixed rate on top tier scenarios, though a few of the aggressive lenders remain at 3.875%.
Loan Originator Perspective
Bonds continue to hold in the current range. With the range holding and bonds in the middle of the channel, i still believe it is worth the risk to float. We dont have any major data prints to be released so the only major concern would be the unexpected tape bomb. With what is happening around the world, odds are any tape bomb would be favorable for rates. All that said, if you are happy with current pricing, there is nothing ever wrong with locking. -Victor Burek, Churchill Mortgage
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 3.875-4.00
- FHA/VA - 3.5-3.75%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.125-3.25%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 2.75 - 3.25% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- Investors were relatively convinced that the decades-long trend toward lower rates had been permanently reversed after Trump became president, but such a conclusion would require YEARS to truly confirm
- Instead of continuing higher in 2017, rates instead formed a narrow, sideways range, and held inside until April. Investor perceptions are shifting such that fiscal reforms and other policy developments will need to live up to expectations in order to push rates higher. Geopolitical risks would also need to avoid flaring up (more than they already have)
- For the first time since the election, we're in a rate environment where you wouldn't be crazy not to lock at every little opportunity/improvement. Until/unless it's broken, the highest rates of early-2017 mark the ceiling, and we're now waiting to see how much lower we can go from here.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.