May 26, 2017
Mortgage rates didn't move much today. Lenders that made detectable adjustments generally did so in a moderately positive direction. While this isn't remotely enough to make a difference in the actual NOTE rate on a mortgage quote, it could make for microscopically lower upfront costs (thereby affecting the "effective" rate). As far as note rates are concerned, most lenders continue quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates in a range centered on 4.0%.
In terms of economic data--something that typically moves bond markets (and thus rates)--there were two key reports this morning. The 1st revision of Q1 GDP was slightly stronger than expected, rising to 1.2% from 0.7% previously. A separate report, Durable Goods Orders, was also stronger than expected, but contained some internal components that offset the apparent strength.
All told, the data had very little effect on today's bond market movement. That's likely to change next week, thus raising the stakes for anyone floating instead of locking. There are good arguments for both approaches. Whatever you decide, just make sure to have a plan in place with your originator.
Loan Originator Perspective
I like that we are holding under 2.25 on a holiday shortened trading day. These can be weakness for no reason days so this is a good sign. Markets are closed Monday so floating means you wont have access to rates until Tuesday. Some amount of additional caution is recommended but I remain optimistic. -Jason Anker - Sr. Loan Officer
With a 3 day weekend upon us, i would recommend to float. I feel lenders tend to worsen pricing ahead of a long weekend. That said, if you are happy with current pricing, there is nothing ever wrong with locking in. -Victor Burek, Churchill Mortgage
As expected, bond markets were quiet today. My rate sheets improved slightly over yesterday's. Next week will likely offer more of the same sedate action, barring any blockbuster DC Drama. My appreciation to all those who made the ultimate sacrifice for this great country and their families. Let's remember Memorial Day is not "just" the unofficial start of summer. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Today's Best-Execution Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 4.00%
- FHA/VA - 3.75%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.25%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 2.75 - 3.25% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- Investors were relatively convinced that the decades-long trend toward lower rates had been permanently reversed after Trump became president, but such a conclusion would require YEARS to truly confirm
- Instead of continuing higher in 2017, rates instead formed a narrow, sideways range, and held inside until April. Investor perceptions are shifting such that fiscal reforms and other policy developments will need to live up to expectations in order to push rates higher. Geopolitical risks would also need to avoid flaring up (more than they already have)
- For the first time since the election, we're in a rate environment where you wouldn't be crazy not to lock at every little opportunity/improvement. Until/unless it's broken, the highest rates of early-2017 mark the ceiling, and we're now waiting to see how much lower we can go from here.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.