April 28, 2017
Mortgage rates were unchanged today, holding onto modest improvements seen yesterday. In many ways, the past 2 days have confirmed that rates are in limbo near the lower end of the post-election range. To be sure, they were definitively lower in mid-April, but they're much closer to recent lows than highs. More importantly, current levels have acted as a line in the sand that divides the year's lowest rates from everything else. In other words, we'd really like to remain in this zone.
Whether or not that's possible may depend on next week's Fed Announcement (Wednesday afternoon). While the Fed isn't expected to hike rates this time around, investors will nonetheless attempt to pick up on clues about future policy potential. The average lender continues offering conventional 30yr fixed rates in the 4.0-4.125% range for top tier scenarios.
Loan Originator Perspective
Bond markets parlayed weak 1st quarter GDP growth into minor gains today. My pricing improved, but very slightly, We're still in the same waiting period: waiting to see if Trump's economic stimulus and tax reform proposals will pass; if tensions in Korea wax or wane; if France's election will produce a predictable result. Until the answer to one or more of these is clear, I'm guessing markets will, well, continue waiting. Have a great weekend! -Ted Rood, Senior Originator
Today's Best-Execution Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 4.0-4.125%
- FHA/VA - 3.5 - 3.75%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.25%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 2.75 - 3.25% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- Investors were relatively convinced that the decades-long trend toward lower rates had been permanently reversed after Trump became president, but such a conclusion would require YEARS to truly confirm
- Instead of continuing higher in 2017, rates instead formed a narrow, sideways range, and held inside until April. Investor perceptions are shifting such that fiscal reforms and other policy developments will need to live up to expectations in order to push rates higher. Geopolitical risks would also need to avoid flaring up (more than they already have)
- For the first time since the election, we're in a rate environment where you wouldn't be crazy not to lock at every little opportunity/improvement. Until/unless it's broken, the highest rates of early-2017 mark the ceiling, and we're now waiting to see how much lower we can go from here.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.