March 31, 2017
Mortgage rate were unchanged to slightly lower today. Once again, the actual change you see will depend heavily on the lender in question. Most are fairly close to yesterday's latest levels but a few are noticeably better or worse. In general, those who deviated from "unchanged" today, did so in a friendly direction. This was made possible by steady improvements in bond markets throughout the day, resulting in several lenders updating rate sheets in the middle of the day.
All that having been said, no matter the direction of the movement, it's all been very small this week. Few, if any lenders are actually offering different NOTE rates compared to any other day this week. When we talk about "rates" moving, it's only in reference to EFFECTIVE rates (which take upfront costs into account).
4.25% remains the most prevalently-quoted conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier scenarios.
Next week brings several big-ticket economic reports, including the important jobs report on Friday. In addition, the Fed will release the Minutes from its most recent meeting. This release will be the first time the Fed publishes its forecasts in a new "fan chart" format. It was the Fed forecasts that helped rates move quickly lower in the middle of March, so if the Fan charts (or any other potential revelation in the Fed Minutes) add a significant amount of information for investors to consider, rates could react quickly.
Loan Originator Perspective
I commented yesterday that treasury yields were near our recent range's (2.38-2.42%) low, and as if on cue, they rose today to 2.42%. Mortgage pricing worsened slightly, although few lenders repriced during the day. We're still near the 30 day low for rates, so there's no shame in locking at these levels. I'd rather pick up a fallen knife than have a falling one pierce my hand. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator
I continue to favor locking once within 30 days of closing. Bonds just do not see a reason to break below our current floor in the mid 2.3s on the 10 year treasury note. Consumers continue to have more to risk than to gain by floating. -Victor Burek, Churchill Mortgage
Today's Best-Execution Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 4.25%
- FHA/VA - 3.75-4.25%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.5-3.625%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 2.75 - 3.25% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- Some investors are increasingly worried/convinced that the decades-long trend toward lower rates has been permanently reversed, but such a conclusion would require YEARS to truly confirm
- Still, it would take something very big and unexpected for rates to make a big, sustained push back toward pre-election levels. Even then, it would take time to confirm such a shift.
- With fiscal and monetary policy paths both clearly putting pressure on rates, at least one of those would need to make a noticeable change before anything but a cautious, lock-biased approach makes sense as a baseline strategy. Floating should only be considered as a tactical opportunity to capitalize on temporary corrections.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.