October 16, 2017
Mortgage rates were sideways to slightly higher today, depending on the lender. Underlying bond markets suggested a bit more movement, and that will likely be reflected in tomorrow morning's rate sheets unless bonds improve overnight.
In other words, effective rates are just a bit lower this afternoon than bond market trading levels would imply. This happens fairly often when bonds move during the day, but not by a wide enough margin to prompt mortgage lenders to reissue the day's rate sheets.
All that having been said, the change would still be fairly minimal in the bigger picture, with most any lender continuing to quote the same interest rate (just with slightly higher upfront costs). After dropping at the best pace in more than a month to the lowest levels in roughly a month on Friday, this modest pullback isn't yet cause for concern, but that could change if the weakness continues tomorrow.
Today's Most Prevalent Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 3.875-4.0%
- FHA/VA - 3.5%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.25%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 2.75 - 3.25% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- 2017 has proven to be a relatively good year for mortgage rates despite widespread expectations for a stronger push higher after the presidential election in late 2016. Most of the rate spike was done by the end of 2016 and we've generally moved sideways to lower since then
- The biggest question is whether or not this counter-intuitive trend has an expiration date. Rates haven't been immune from brief corrections back toward higher levels, and each correction causes concern that the good times are over.
- Despite those concerns, we've seen rates make new lows in April, June, and September. Although rates have been rising since early September, they'd have to move even higher before we'd consider a change in the bigger picture theme.
- All of the above having been said, past precedent suggests we're due for a much bigger dose of volatility some time soon.
- Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders. The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable. Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.