June 23, 2014
Mortgage rates were slightly lower this morning, but moved higher in the afternoon, ultimately matching Friday's latest offerings. Despite some economic reports in the morning, bond markets were quiet. Motivation for the improvement in rates could be partially due to lenders being hesitant to pass along Friday's late-day bond market gains in the form of lower rates. In other words, lenders had some room to improve, but waited until this morning to do so.
As market conditions deteriorated in the afternoon (i.e. prices of mortgage-backed-securities falling), lenders issued reprices, bringing rate sheets back in line with Friday. Some lenders remained in slightly better territory while others were slightly weaker. The most prevalently quoted conforming 30yr fixed rate for best-case scenarios (best-execution) remains 4.25%, but 4.125% is becoming viable once again.
Loan Originator Perspective
"Absolutely nothing happening today in the rate markets and it's been pretty quiet for awhile now. Potentially market moving data on the near term horizon though means let your risk tolerance be your guide and stay connected to a loan officer who stays connected to the markets. Changes can happen quickly. " -Hugh W. Page, Sen. Mortgage Consultant, Capital Partners Mortgage
"Traders may have started the 4th of July holiday early this year for the markets were about as flat as could be today. Tomorrow does begin the first round of Treasury auctions for the week so that may bring some excitement. Floating into tomorrow appears to be a safe option. " -Manny Gomes, Branch Manager, Norcom Mortgage
"Rates remain in a "Safe" place at the higher side of the range. If there is no specfic data that is going to create a breakout of the high side of the range, lack of direction could very likely lead to a natural slower move lower. Floating continues to be an opportunity that could pay off for an client willing to take a litte risk." -Brent Borcherding, www.brentborcherding.com
Today's Best-Execution Rates
- 30YR FIXED - 4.125-4.25%
- FHA/VA - 3.75%
- 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.375%
- 5 YEAR ARMS - 3.0-3.50% depending on the lender
Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
- The Fed has stayed the course on their $10bln per meeting reduction in bond buying, though markets have handled it relatively calmly compared to the days of "coming to terms with tapering" in 2013.
- Rates fell significantly in January, leveled-off in February and took choppy steps higher in March. From there, they settled into a flat range mostly consisting of 4.375 and 4.5%, but with occasional forays to 4.25 and 4.625%.
- The bias had been very slightly toward higher rates, it reversed course in early April as expectations grew concerning European Central Bank easing. On several occasions, those expectations would go on to overwhelm domestic economic data--normally the main source of guidance for market movements.
- As of the third week in May, rates were as low as they've been since June 2013, more than confirming a break below the 2014 range. They remained in that range through month-end and grew more volatile ahead of the June 5th European Central Bank Announcement.
- Looking back at recent movement, it's had a disconcertingly small amount to do with 'normal stuff' like economic data and Fed policy. Temporary and unpredictable factors currently account for too much of the movement to make firm bets on rates moving either direction in the short term.
- The narrow range persists even now, though due to the rate landscape from a year ago, rates were officially lower "year-over-year" on June 20th.
- (As always, please keep in mind that our Best-Execution rate always pertains to a completely ideal scenario. There are many reasons a quoted rate may differ from our average rates, and in those cases, assuming you're following along on a day to day basis, simply use the Best-Ex levels we quote as a baseline to track potential movement in your quoted rate).