30 Year Fixed
4.15%    -0.14
15 Year Fixed
3.85%    -0.05
10YR Treasury
2.44%    -0.1014
FNMA 30YR 3.5
101.36    +0.38
FNMA 15YR 2.5
100.75    +0.27
Mortgage Rates Down 0.25% This Week
March 22, 2019

At the end of last week, the average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate quote was 4.375%.  As of today, the exact same scenario would be at 4.125%--a quarter of a percentage point lower.  That's an uncommonly big move for a single week, but it's one we've been tracking eagerly in recent days.

Why is it happening?

The first phase of the move had to do with the Fed's surprisingly friendly policy announcement on Wednesday.  Due to the time of day that the Fed news came out, markets didn't have a chance to fully react to it until yesterday.  Even so, the drop in rates was already much bigger than average.  But this morning took it to the next level.  

In the middle of the night (in the US, anyway), economic data for Europe was released that showed a serious slowdown in German and French manufacturing.  The Fed has repeatedly cited European growth concerns  as a reason for its aggressive policy changes, so the news was all the more meaningful.  European bonds tanked by the time US markets opened ("tanked" in this context refers to rates moving lower).  Early in the domestic trading session, US economic data was similarly weak, thus reinforcing another warning from the Fed about European weakness spilling over to the US. 

With that, bond yields fell rapidly at home and abroad--to the point where there was a bit of a frenzied rush to buy (when traders buy bonds, rates move lower).  

Will this continue to happen?

There's never any way to know if a certain move in rates is sustainable or susceptible to a quick bounce.  In general, it will be up to the incoming economic data.  After all, whether we're talking about Fed policy or the global growth implications themselves (both things that rates care about), it's the economic data that will cast the biggest votes.


Loan Originator Perspective

Bond markets (particularly treasuries) posted more gains today, as Brexit and potential EU economic concerns spooked investors.   It's been a remarkable run since Wednesday  as rates have dropped nearly. 25%.  Can't blame those who want to lock in these gains, nor buyers who float cautiously here.  Remember, pigs get fat, but hogs get slaughtered.  Don't get too greedy!  -Ted Rood, Senior Originator


Today's Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED - 4.125-4.25
  • FHA/VA - 3.875-4.00
  • 15 YEAR FIXED - 3.875%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS -  3.875-4.25% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations
 

  • Early 2019 saw a rapid reevaluation of big-picture trends in rates and in markets in general

  • The Federal Reserve has been a key player, and while they aren't the ones pulling the global economic strings, their response to the economy has helped rates fall more quickly than they otherwise might.

  • Based on the Fed's laundry list of concerns, their current outlook for rate hikes and economic growth, and their bond-buying policy shifts, we've all but certainly seen the highest rates of this economic cycle in late 2018.  
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders.  The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable.  Rates appearing on this page are "effective rates" that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.

30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
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Today's Rates
Best Execution
Rate Change
30 Yr FRM 4.15% -0.14
15 Yr FRM 3.85% -0.05
FHA 30 Year Fixed 3.95% -0.05
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed 4.05% -0.07
5/1 Yr ARM 4.05% -0.10
Average Mortgage Rates
Rate Points Change
FHFA *
15 Yr. Fixed 4.22% 1.43 -0.12
30 Yr. Fixed 4.78% 1.18 -0.20
MBA **
30 Yr. Fixed 4.67% 0.00 +0.02
15 Yr. Fixed 0.00% 0.00 -4.00
30 Yr. Jumbo 0.00% 0.00 -4.40
30 Yr. FHA 0.00% 0.00 -4.64
5/1 ARM 0.00% 0.00 -3.95
Freddie Mac **
30 Yr. Fixed 4.28% 0.40 -0.03
15 Yr. Fixed 3.71% 0.40 -0.05
1 Yr. ARM 2.68% 0.20 +0.01
5/1 Yr. ARM 3.84% 0.30 +0.00
* FHFA averages are updated monthly.
** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
Secondary Markets
MBS
Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0 99.56 +0.55
30YR FNMA 3.5 101.36 +0.38
30YR GNMA 3.0 100.50 +0.44
30YR GNMA 3.5 101.98 +0.19
15YR FNMA 3.0 100.75 +0.27
15YR FNMA 2.5 99.20 +0.39
Treasuries
Yield Change
2 YR 2.3187% -0.0917
5 YR 2.2403% -0.1009
10 YR 2.4373% -0.1014
30 YR 2.8747% -0.0904
Prices as of: 3/22/2019 5:06PM EST
MBS and Treasury data provided by Thomson Reuters.
Mortgage News Daily and MBS Live! are exclusive re-distributors of Real Time Thomson Reuters Mortgage Information.
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About This Report
Mortgage News Daily is a trusted source of mortgage rate market data and analysis, with over 1 million readers each month.  Unlike many rate surveys, our survey is conducted on a daily basis and is designed to bring you the most current and accurate rate data available.  We use a proprietary formula to calculate averages based on best-execution rates from top lender's rate sheets, also taking into account feedback from hundreds of mortgage market professionals around the country.