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Bond yields have been surging higher in February with last week bringing the sharpest losses so far. The move has surprised more than a few market participants. To be sure, the pace of selling doesn't seem to fit with the economic reality at first glance. Moreover, the higher yields have gone, the more expectations have increased for a technical correction. In other words, we have to find a ceiling soon, even if it's only temporary. It looked like we found that ceiling in the middle of last week, but Friday saw yields break to new highs. Now as the new week begins, we have more new highs (overnight) and more new hope for a ceiling bounce as bonds are rallying early.
On the data front, this week's headliners include Durable Goods, Core PCE, and the 5/7yr Treasury auctions. With the exception of Wednesday's 5yr auction, all of that happens on the last 2 days of the week. Incidentally, those are also the last 2 trading days of the month. That means we could see a glut of trading momentum in one direction or the other, depending on how the rest of the week trades and how much "month-end" trading is left to be done.
MBS Commentary
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Bond yields have been surging higher in February with last week bringing the sharpest losses so far. The move has surprised more than a few market participants. To be sure, the pace of selling doesn't seem to fit with the economic reality... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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There's no precedent for the winning streak enjoyed by mortgage rates in the 2nd half of 2020. We've never seen so many new record lows in the same year, and we never spent as much time at those lows (not even close). All of the above makes it easy t... (read more)
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Housing News
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Existing home sales started the 2021 with a small increase from the December sale levels, the second consecutive monthly gain. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said transactions that include pre-owned single-family homes, townhomes, co... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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(To listen to the audio version of today’s commentary, please click here .) I received many nice comments about the section in yesterday’s commentary about losing people in our industry before their time. Unfortunately, there was one that... (read more)
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Housing News
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The Urban Institute (UI) says the surge in foreclosures predicted as the COVID-19 pandemic drove unemployment to the highest level since the Great Depression may not materialize, even when the current forbearances end. Two UI researchers, Michael Nea... (read more)
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Housing News
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Ice Mortgage Technology (formerly Ellie Mae) said that closed loans continued show declining note rates in January, dropping from an average of 2.93 percent in December to 2.88 percent. The decline occurred across all loan types. The 30-year rate on ... (read more)
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