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Mortgage rates are most influenced by the bond market and the bond market is most influenced by the Federal Reserve (aka "The Fed"). So when the Fed says it expects rates to be "zero" at least until the end of 2023, does the same go for mortgage rates? That would be nice, but unfortunately, that's not how it works. The Fed dropped its policy rate to 0% back in March--the same place it had been for nearly 6 years after the financial crisis. Mortgage rates were in completely different territory during that time and they've often moved in the opposite direction since then. With this in mind, how can we say the Fed is so important to the bond market and mortgage rates? First off, there's a clue in the chart above. Although we can highlight time frames where the two rates moved in opposite directions
Mortgage Rate Watch
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Mortgage rates are most influenced by the bond market and the bond market is most influenced by the Federal Reserve (aka "The Fed"). So when the Fed says it expects rates to be "zero" at least until the end of 2023, does the same go for mortgage rate... (read more)
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MBS Commentary
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Stocks vs Bonds; Bonds vs Supply
There's a fairly strong case to be made for stock market weakness helping bond yields remain lower than they otherwise might be in September. As such, we'll be w... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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If you watch the news long enough, you see all kinds of interesting things. Cracker Barrel is adding alcohol to its menu? Yup! And you must watch this clip with Stephen Colbert working out with, and interviewing, the Notorious RBG (“Is a hot do... (read more)
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Housing News
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One out of every 15 home sales in the second quarter of the year were defined as "flips" by ATTOM Data Solutions. A flip is any arms-length transaction that occurred in the quarter where a previous arms-length transaction on the same property had occ... (read more)
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Housing News
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There was a fourth straight decline in the number of mortgage loans in forbearance during the week ended September 15. Black Knight says the total dropped by 26,000 or 0.7 percent to an estimated 3.7 million loans. That is down 22 percent from the pe... (read more)
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Housing News
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The refinance share of loans originated in August rebounded slightly from July levels as interest rates fell to the lowest in Ellie Mae's history. The company's Origination Insight Report says the average rate on all loans fell to 3.09 percent during... (read more)
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