Mortgage rates held steady yet again, ending their second week of significant improvement and contributing to what may soon be the first 2-month stretch of improvement since the Spring of 2012.  Some lenders' rate sheets were slightly weaker today while others improved.  The net effect was an unchanged 30yr fixed rate of 4.125% (best-execution), on average for ideal scenarios, with the day-over-day changes being seen in the form of higher or lower closing costs.

The uneventful movement in rates sheets reflects the uneventful day in financial markets, particularly the mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) that most directly influence mortgage rates.  Even in broader bond markets, the last few days have been a break in the recent action driven by the debt-ceiling resolution and Tuesday's Employment situation report. 

Mortgage rates stayed in line with recent 4-month lows today.  In some cases, there was a slight movement in the closing costs associated with prevailing rates, but the rates themselves didn't change.  The most prevalent Conforming 30yr fixed quote (best-execution) remained at 4.125%.

Every day since last week's jobs report has been relatively calm for mortgage rates.  Even then, there was reason to believe that we could be lacking some direction until the next major round of economic data came in.  That culminates in next week's jobs report (which is occurring so close to the previous report due to shutdown-related rescheduling), but the current week can certainly play a role. 

Mortgage rates continued flying their recent holding pattern just over 4 percent.   Most lenders' rate sheets were essentially unchanged compared to yesterday's latest.  Additionally, we never saw enough bond market movement during the course of the day to justify any mid-day changes.   The most prevalent Conforming  (best-execution) has been pinned to 4.125% with very little change in associated closing costs for a week now.

Because most lenders adjust rates in 1/8th (0.125%) increments, the next time the best-execution quote moves lower, 30yr fixed rates will be back at 4.0%.  Some lenders are offering that now, but it's not the norm, and may involve additional closing costs. 

Mortgage rates began the day lower, with several lenders releasing their best rate sheets in nearly 5 months.  The day progressed well in the secondary mortgage market with MBS prices (the "mortgage backed securities" that most directly affect rates) rising steadily into the Federal Reserve's policy announcement.  When MBS prices move higher, rates move lower.

The Fed wasn't seen as likely to change monetary policy in any way at this meeting, but market participants may have justifiably been expecting a more cautious tone than they got.  The Fed even removed verbiage alluding to the risks associated with recently tight financial conditions.  Bond markets, including MBS, weakened quickly following the announcement, and many lenders revised rate sheets to fall more in line with yesterday's.

After 5 straight days of almost no change on average, mortgage rates finally made a move today.  Unfortunately, it wasn't in the direction that most would hope.  On a positive note, the deterioration was only seen in the "cost" side of the equation, meaning that you'd likely be quoted the same rate as yesterday afternoon, but with slightly higher closing costs (or lower lender credit, depending on your scenario).  As such the most prevalent Conforming 30yr fixed rate  (best-execution) remains at 4.125%.

Today's weakness was almost exclusively a factor of one surprisingly strong piece of economic data.  We often talk about the interplay between economic data and rates, focusing mainly on the important employment reports.  That's because the Employment Situation Report is by far and away the most reliable market mover for interest rates when it comes to economic reports.

Mortgage rates continued higher today, after breaking a very long, very flat streak following last week's jobs numbers.  Like yesterday, today's culprit was stronger-than-expected economic data, this time from the national Institute for Supply Management (yesterday's was the regional Chicago ISM).  The losses were more pronounced, however, bringing the most prevalent 30yr Fixed conforming rate quote (best-execution) up to 4.25%.

Part of the problem into the end of this week owes itself to the trading levels that ultimately underlie and inform mortgage rates. In addition to economic data and other market fundamentals, trading of a particular security can also be informed simply by the past precedent of that security itself!

For example, if a stock price bounced several times in a row at $35.00 and moved down to at least $25.00 every time it bounced, we might conclude that the next bounce at $35.00 is also likely to result in a move to $25.00.