For Immediate Release
Mortgage Rates Much Higher to End the Week
November 1, 2013
Market Summary
Mortgage rates surged higher on Thursday and Friday, going a long way toward completely erasing last week's strong move lower. The intervening time was exceptionally flat with the Fed Announcement on Wednesday afternoon and Thursday and Friday economic data breaking the monotony--sending rates higher.
Conforming 30yr Fixed rates (best-execution) moved back up to 4.25%.
"Traders can be both human and algorithmic. When either a human or a computer program sees rates flatten out as much as they did after the strong move lower from the end of the shutdown through last Tuesday, it's a potential sign that this phase of positive momentum has run its course, and that even if rates can continue lower long-term, they may pause or correct in the short term. Until Wednesday afternoon, all we had was 'the pause.' The combination of the Fed Announcement and economic data at the end of the week helped confirm a correction to the prevailing trend. It could keep going at the start of next week, but even if it doesn't, Friday's jobs report can completely undo any damage done. Unfortunately, it could also make it much worse."
Matthew Graham Chief Operating Officer, Mortgage News Daily
Real-time Average Rates
Rate Product |
Current |
1 Week Change |
1 Year Change |
30 Yr FRM |
4.25% |
+0.15% |
+0.81% |
15 Yr FRM |
3.35% |
+0.09% |
+0.55% |
FHA 30 Year Fixed |
3.89% |
+0.08% |
+0.64% |
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed |
4.25% |
+0.14% |
+0.41% |
5/1 Yr ARM |
3.18% |
+0.06% |
+0.19% |
Rates as of: Friday, November 1, 2013
|
Week in Review
* Rates shown based on 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
Friday, October 25, 2013 : 4.10% (+0.00%)
Mortgage rates held steady yet again, ending their second week of significant improvement and contributing to what may soon be the first 2-month stretch of improvement since the Spring of 2012. Some lenders' rate sheets were slightly weaker today while others improved. The net effect was an unchanged 30yr fixed rate of 4.125% (best-execution), on average for ideal scenarios, with the day-over-day changes being seen in the form of higher or lower closing costs.
The uneventful movement in rates sheets reflects the uneventful day in financial markets, particularly the mortgage-backed-securities (MBS) that most directly influence mortgage rates. Even in broader bond markets, the last few days have been a break in the recent action driven by the debt-ceiling resolution and Tuesday's Employment situation report.
Monday, October 28, 2013 : 4.11% (+0.01%)
Mortgage rates stayed in line with recent 4-month lows today. In some cases, there was a slight movement in the closing costs associated with prevailing rates, but the rates themselves didn't change. The most prevalent Conforming 30yr fixed quote (best-execution) remained at 4.125%.
Every day since last week's jobs report has been relatively calm for mortgage rates. Even then, there was reason to believe that we could be lacking some direction until the next major round of economic data came in. That culminates in next week's jobs report (which is occurring so close to the previous report due to shutdown-related rescheduling), but the current week can certainly play a role.
Tuesday, October 29, 2013 : 4.11% (+0.00%)
Mortgage rates continued flying their recent holding pattern just over 4 percent. Most lenders' rate sheets were essentially unchanged compared to yesterday's latest. Additionally, we never saw enough bond market movement during the course of the day to justify any mid-day changes. The most prevalent Conforming (best-execution) has been pinned to 4.125% with very little change in associated closing costs for a week now.
Because most lenders adjust rates in 1/8th (0.125%) increments, the next time the best-execution quote moves lower, 30yr fixed rates will be back at 4.0%. Some lenders are offering that now, but it's not the norm, and may involve additional closing costs.
Wednesday, October 30, 2013 : 4.11% (+0.00%)
Mortgage rates began the day lower, with
several lenders releasing their best rate sheets in nearly 5 months.
The day progressed well in the secondary mortgage market with MBS prices
(the "mortgage backed securities" that most directly affect rates)
rising steadily into the Federal Reserve's policy announcement. When
MBS prices move higher, rates move lower.
The Fed wasn't seen as
likely to change monetary policy in any way at this meeting, but market
participants may have justifiably been expecting a more cautious tone
than they got. The Fed even removed verbiage alluding to the risks
associated with recently tight financial conditions. Bond markets,
including MBS, weakened quickly following the announcement, and many
lenders revised rate sheets to fall more in line with yesterday's.
Thursday, October 31, 2013 : 4.14% (+0.03%)
After 5 straight days of almost no change on average, mortgage rates finally made a move today. Unfortunately, it wasn't in the direction that most would hope. On a positive note, the deterioration was only seen in the "cost" side of the equation, meaning that you'd likely be quoted the same rate as yesterday afternoon, but with slightly higher closing costs (or lower lender credit, depending on your scenario). As such the most prevalent Conforming 30yr fixed rate (best-execution) remains at 4.125%.
Today's weakness was almost exclusively a factor of one surprisingly strong piece of economic data. We often talk about the interplay between economic data and rates, focusing mainly on the important employment reports. That's because the Employment Situation Report is by far and away the most reliable market mover for interest rates when it comes to economic reports.
Friday, November 1, 2013 : 4.25% (+0.11%)
Mortgage rates continued higher today, after breaking a very long, very flat streak following last week's jobs numbers. Like yesterday, today's culprit was stronger-than-expected economic data, this time from the national Institute for Supply Management (yesterday's was the regional Chicago ISM). The losses were more pronounced, however, bringing the most prevalent 30yr Fixed conforming rate quote (best-execution) up to 4.25%.
Part of the problem into the end of this week owes itself to the trading levels that ultimately underlie and inform mortgage rates. In addition to economic data and other market fundamentals, trading of a particular security can also be informed simply by the past precedent of that security itself!
For example, if a stock price bounced several times in a row at $35.00 and moved down to at least $25.00 every time it bounced, we might conclude that the next bounce at $35.00 is also likely to result in a move to $25.00.
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
15 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
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Members of the Media
Issued Wednesday AM, this weekly report is the most comprehensive and accurate of it's kind. It includes:
- This Week's Market Analysis - Real-time Mortgage Rates - The Complete Week in Review - Charts for the 15 and 30 Year FRM If you have suggestions, questions or would like to schedule an interview with one of our market analysts please contact us here.
Today's Average Rates
30 Yr FRM
|
4.25%
|
+0.11
|
15 Yr FRM
|
3.35%
|
+0.07
|
FHA 30 Year Fixed
|
3.89%
|
+0.06
|
Jumbo 30 Year Fixed
|
4.25%
|
+0.11
|
5/1 Yr ARM
|
3.18%
|
+0.06
|
|
National Averages
15 Yr. Fixed
|
3.62%
|
1.06
|
+0.18
|
30 Yr. Fixed
|
4.49%
|
1.21
|
+0.22
|
30 Yr. Fixed
|
4.33%
|
0.26
|
-0.06
|
15 Yr. Fixed
|
3.42%
|
0.30
|
-0.09
|
30 Yr. Jumbo
|
4.36%
|
0.27
|
-0.07
|
30 Yr. FHA
|
4.06%
|
0.17
|
-0.09
|
5/1 ARM
|
3.17%
|
0.38
|
-0.08
|
30 Yr. Fixed
|
4.10%
|
0.70
|
-0.03
|
15 Yr. Fixed
|
3.20%
|
0.70
|
-0.04
|
1 Yr. ARM
|
2.64%
|
0.40
|
+0.04
|
5/1 Yr. ARM
|
2.96%
|
0.40
|
-0.04
|
* FHFA averages are updated monthly. ** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
|
Secondary Markets
30YR FNMA 3.0
|
97.92
|
-0.66
|
30YR FNMA 3.5
|
102.03
|
-0.53
|
30YR GNMA 3.0
|
98.91
|
-0.69
|
30YR GNMA 3.5
|
103.16
|
-0.48
|
15YR FNMA 3.0
|
103.56
|
-0.27
|
15YR FNMA 2.5
|
100.64
|
-0.34
|
2 YR
|
0.3131%
|
+0.0042
|
5 YR
|
1.3768%
|
+0.0522
|
10 YR
|
2.6236%
|
+0.0730
|
30 YR
|
3.6961%
|
+0.0592
|
Prices as of: 11/1/2013 4:29PM EST
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