http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ Mortgage News Daily https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-10092026 Fri, 09 Oct 2026 20:38:59 GMT 6ac95fa81d0f9c937d52eb4b Matthew Graham Another Nice Round Trip For Bonds--Especially MBS Nothing new or interesting happened today in terms of underlying events, news, or data. But the price action itself was a different story. While the moves weren't extreme, it was nonetheless notable that bonds lost ground in a very intentional way this morning only to reverse course and make it back to positive territory by the close. Yields are still broadly sideways at long-term highs, but we now have a second straight day having closed near the week's best levels. MBS outperformed Treasuries a bit, and officially turned green by the afternoon even as 10yr yields were a hair higher. It's all somewhat promising, but not conclusive evidence of "more to come." The 3-day weekend may be adding some distortion. Either way next week's data may play a big role in making this week look like a false start or sneak preview.   Market Movement Recap 12:47 PM Weaker morning, but bouncing back since 11am. MBS now down only 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up only 1.4bps at 5.244 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-10092026 Fri, 09 Oct 2026 18:37:00 GMT 6ac937151407a7ab6c55ede2 Matthew Graham Even though the underlying bond market is in slightly weaker shape today, mortgage rates ended up trickling just a bit lower than yesterday's latest levels. This can happen on occasions when there is a strong rally late in the previous day. Mortgage lenders don't end up passing along all of that improvement in rate sheets and some of them decide to wait for the following day to make the adjustments.  In addition, this morning's slightly weaker bond market performance reversed course around 11am and paved the way for multiple lenders to adjust their rates lower over the past few hours. The net effect is a move down to 7.48% for the average to-tier 30yr fixed rate, just barely edging out the 7.49% seen on the morning of October 2nd to claim the lowest spot since September 25th.  Bears/pessimists will be quick to note that this is still massively higher than we were at the end of august when rates were 6.75%. Nonetheless, it's the strongest counterattack we've seen since then.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-10092026 Fri, 09 Oct 2026 15:50:26 GMT 6ac8d5f7851d2c556ae808e9 Rob Chrisman As Robbie and I prepare to head to Chicago this weekend for the “MBA National,” yesterday I was speaking with someone at the bar at Legs Inn in Northern Michigan. (Yeah, it’s somethin’.) We shouldn’t be afraid to talk about the economy, or politics, and I told her that I’ve been in capital markets for over 40 years and there are plenty of clever sayings about economics. One of them is, “The stock market is not the economy.” How good is the U.S. economy? You wouldn’t know it by stocks. Elliot F. Eisenberg, Ph.D. writes, “U.S. equity market performance is increasingly being led by the Magnificent Seven including the ‘hyperscalers’ (Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft) plus Apple, Nvidia, and Tesla. They have a combined market cap of almost $25 trillion, 77 percent of U.S. GDP. Moreover, Y-o-Y 26Q3 tech EPS growth is expected to be 65 percent, double the overall S&P 500. The market may be a one-trick pony, but it’s staggeringly large and profitable.” (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are presented by Floify, the mortgage industry’s leading point-of-sale platform. Dynamic Apps, which can be seen at booth 600 during MBA Annual next week, lets lenders create fully customizable loan applications for any loan type, including HELOCs, construction, agricultural lending, non-QM and more, without custom development. Today’s has an interview with Floify’s Maggie Swanson on creating fully customizable loan applications for any loan type, including HELOCs, construction, agricultural lending, non-QM, and more, without custom development.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-10092026 Fri, 09 Oct 2026 13:50:08 GMT 6ac8ff901d0f9c937d522d25 Matthew Graham After yesterday's nice comeback, here's how we're thinking about today. Fridays before 3-day weekends: frequently see a move to the sidelines among certain investors. Traders who were tactically long bonds over the past 2 days could be booking profit. Translation: some of the strength over the past 2 days could turn to weakness for purely mechanical reasons.  frequently see less determination to aggressively pursue new trading ideas in the absence of compelling econ data.  often "don't count" when it comes to forming our view of prevailing short term trends. Bonds are starting out slightly weaker, but MBS are right in line with Wednesday's close. Treasuries are even better than Wed's close.  It would be a victory to close around these levels today. Any improvement is a bonus. And deterioration can be forgiven, as long as it doesn't get out of hand. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-10082026 Thu, 08 Oct 2026 20:16:53 GMT 6ac8084c1d0f9c937d50704e Matthew Graham Yields "Plummet" to Best Level In... 4 trading days...  All the way back on October 2nd (last Friday), intraday lows were 5.151%. In other words, today's rally was definitely nice and definitely worth discussing, but if we're witnessing the inception of anything legitimately exciting here, it's in an embryonic stage as of today. 10yr yields would need to be below 5.0% just over a month from now to confirm a truly big shift. As for drivers, we'd have a hard time reconciling today's friendly reversal without giving some credit to investors "buying the dip" in bond prices (or the supportive ceiling in yields around 5.33-5.35). Additional mid-day gains followed war headlines and a decently strong 30yr bond auction. No major data tomorrow.  Market Movement Recap 01:04 PM Mid-day gains after war-related headlines. Ho-hum Treasury auction, but it would have been strong if not for the rally leading up to it. 10yr at best levels, down 5 bps at 5.622.  MBS up nearly a quarter point.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-10082026 Thu, 08 Oct 2026 20:06:00 GMT 6ac7f9e8532e2b54af287804 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates moved lower today at their fastest pace in 3 months with the average top-tier 30yr fixed scenario ultimately falling 0.09%. There were thrills and chills along the way as well. The day actually began with a 0.01% INCREASE versus yesterday's latest levels. This highlights a unique aspect of our rate index which has the ability to change more than once per day in response to mortgage lenders making intraday updates to their rate offerings. In other words, almost every lender lowered their rates today--many of them more than once.  As has often been the case lately, the market movement can't be traced to one standout event. There was certainly some benefit from mid-day headlines regarding the Iran war, but that alone was scarcely sufficient to be labeled as the x factor. A forensic review of the underlying market suggests a meaningful amount of support came from investors "deciding" that bond yields were high enough to be worth some more asset allocation. In other words, investors are less interested in adding bonds to their portfolio if yields are climbing and at risk of climbing more. But at a certain point, yields are high enough to serve as a good entry point for investors to jump back into bond ownership. This phenomenon doesn't necessarily hearken additional downward momentum, but some would say it makes a case that recent ceilings should continue to be supportive unless new data comes to light that is unfavorable for bonds. In the current case, the nearest data with that kind of power would probably be next week's inflation reports on Wed/Thu.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-10082026 Thu, 08 Oct 2026 15:42:07 GMT 6ac7887df7366272ec51ff39 Rob Chrisman “My friend is an EMT, and she's amazing on trivia night. She's usually the first responder.” The United States is full of trivia. Did you know that part of Florida is in the Central Time Zone? (Fourteen states are in more than one time zone!) Do you know what Brad Pitt, Tom Cruise, Kenau Reeves, and Michelle Pfeiffer have in common? They all can qualify for a HECM (aka, reverse mortgage)! Last time I checked, about 10k people a day turn 62; if you don’t have a HECM division, or a HECM product, your company should consider one. What isn’t so trivial are volumes in our biz, both in dollars and in units. KBW’s Bose George expects mortgage origination volume in 3Q to be down around 10 percent Q/Q. (Currently, the MBA is forecasting 3Q down 8 percent, Fannie Mae is forecasting -7 percent, and agency securitization volume was down 9.3 percent.) “We expect gain-on-sale margins to be flat to down modestly. However, sharp increases in rates can make pipeline hedging more challenging as fallout can come in lower than expected. We are reducing our estimates for the mortgage originators to incorporate these trends, and our forward estimates are also declining to reflect industry volume estimates for 2027.” Buckle up! (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are presented by Floify, the mortgage industry’s leading point-of-sale platform. Dynamic Apps, which can be seen at booth 600 during MBA Annual next week, lets lenders create fully customizable loan applications for any loan type, including HELOCs, construction, agricultural lending, non-QM and more, without custom development. Today’s has an interview with Gather Markets’ Wayne Brown on recurring challenges for banks and originators in finding, matching, and efficiently processing CRA-eligible loans, leading to Gather’s focus on using data, technology, and compliance infrastructure to connect the right loans with the right bank buyers.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-10082026 Thu, 08 Oct 2026 13:36:44 GMT 6ac7aa8c1d0f9c937d4fb79c Matthew Graham Bonds were initially moderately weaker this morning morning in a move that followed oil prices and hawkish Fed comments. Chris Waller said more hikes were needed due to a strong economy, persistently high inflation, and the risk that inflation expectations would become unanchored after 5.5 years above target. This hit the short end of the curve at 4:30am ET and brought Fed Funds Futures for the middle of next year back to yesterday's levels. Oil prices were rising at the same time and were already pushing bonds higher (or the correlation is coincidental, and bonds just "felt like" correcting a bit).  In the last few minutes, 10yr yields made it all the way back to unchanged for reasons unknown, although someone will try to tell you it had to do with Europe and the ongoing bond market volatility there. They're wrong in this case even though Europe has been a factor on several recent occasions. Now it's time to play "name that line." The following chart has 3 lines. One is the 10yr yield. One is oil. One is the implied yield for Fed Funds Rate in June 2027. See if you can guess which is which.  Well, nevermind. It doesn't really matter, right?  Seriously though, the "Waller" caption gives it away. The orange line has to be Fed Funds Futures because it's not nearly as active as the other two (if you didn't already know, there are far fewer trades in Fed Funds Futures than in bonds or oil). The blue line therefore has to be 10yr yields.  Well, it doesn't HAVE TO be, but it's much more likely to be because it moves with Fed Funds Futures whereas the red line does not (i.e. Fed rate outlook is more likely to correlate with the rest of the bond market than with oil prices).  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-10072026 Wed, 07 Oct 2026 20:56:51 GMT 6ac6c02d1d0f9c937d4e0f3f Matthew Graham Full Recovery! The patient looked critical this morning with 10yr yields pushing up to new long-term highs just over 5.36%, but by the early afternoon, there was a full recovery. In fact, most of the recovery arrived after 9:30am ET (and before 11am ET). Any time 9:30am kicks off a big move, we think about things like ETF tradeflows and other money shuffling in the retail investor space. Oil prices also moved lower at that time, but not enough to justify the swings seen in the bond market. The afternoon's 10yr Treasury auction was well-received (as they often are when yields tag long-term highs). The follow-through helped complete the round trip, ultimately leaving yields about 1bp lower by 3pm ET and MBS a few bps higher. Market Movement Recap 10:28 AM Sharply weaker overnight, but recovering a bit now. MBS down about a quarter point and 10yr up 3.6bps at 5.32 01:03 PM Additional recovery after strong 10yr auction. 10yr now up less than 1bp on the day at 5.289 and MBS down only 2 ticks (.06). Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-10072026 Wed, 07 Oct 2026 19:50:00 GMT 6ac6a4346c2a9d996278e410 Matthew Graham It was an exciting day for mortgage rates, and while we technically ended up slightly higher, it could have been much worse. In fact, it WAS much worse earlier in the day, but only for about 30 minutes.  Our daily rate index can be updated throughout the day if mortgage lenders change their rates in sufficient numbers. If we reported only the day's opening rate sheets, top-tier 30yr fixed rates would have been over 7.7%. Almost immediately after those initial rates came out (around 9:30am ET), the bond market started to recover. By 11am, multiple lenders had already improved. There was an additional round of improvement in the afternoon with almost every lender dropping their rates at least once (many of them more than once) by the end of the day. The net effect: today's average top-tier 30yr fixed rate rose only 0.03% versus yesterday to 7.59%--safely under recent highs.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full