http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ Mortgage News Daily https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-07172026 Fri, 17 Jul 2026 20:35:46 GMT 6a5aa040a6791958c54fa690 Matthew Graham Roughly Unchanged After Gradual Weakness Bonds ended the day roughly unchanged despite this morning's stronger start. With the S&P falling back to the lows of the day, we can't really blame asset allocation trading between stocks and bonds. It's easier to blame a mid-day surge in fuel prices (especially after 11am) which may have been related to headlines regarding U.S. missiles striking an oil tanker docked at Kharg Island. All told, it was still a victorious week with yields ending up slightly lower than last Friday. The week ahead is marked by limited data and the pre-FOMC blackout period. Bonds will remain tuned into oil price volatility and potentially to any big swings in stocks. Econ Data / Events Building Permits (Jun) 1.367M vs 1.40M f'cast, 1.41M prev Housing starts number mm (Jun) 1.427M vs 1.31M f'cast, 1.177M prev Import prices mm (Jun) 0.3% vs -0.7% f'cast, 1.9% prev Market Movement Recap 08:46 AM Modestly stronger start despite higher oil/gas. 10yr down 1.9bps at 4.536 and MBS up 1 tick (.03). 12:47 PM Near weakest levels. MBS unchanged and 10yr down 1bp at 4.546 04:12 PM At the weakest levels. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 0.4bps at 4.551 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07172026 Fri, 17 Jul 2026 18:41:00 GMT 6a5a78415b3a51804297df5b Matthew Graham The good news is that mortgage rates ended the day at their lowest levels of the week. That's welcome news after Monday's rates matched the highest seen since July 2025. Today's improvement came courtesy of weakness in the stock market, which is not necessarily a common or reliable source of inspiration for rates these days. But a majority of this week's drop is tied to back-to-back inflation reports coming in much lower than expected.  The bad news goes back to the long-term highs seen on Monday. In a short-term context, we've definitely seen solid improvement since then. In the bigger picture, however, this week's lows are still pretty close to the longer-term highs. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/07172026-housing-starts-building-permits-new-residenti Fri, 17 Jul 2026 17:59:00 GMT 6a5a7009f27dbf5c826ed045 Matthew Graham Residential construction rebounded in June as housing starts and completions recovered from May's unusually weak levels, though building permits continued to trend lower. The latest Census Bureau data suggests that while builders remain cautious about future projects, construction activity itself regained momentum after last month's sharp pullback. Privately owned housing starts jumped 19.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.427 million , reversing much of May's decline and coming in 3.5% above the June 2025 pace. The headline increase was driven almost entirely by multifamily construction, with starts for buildings containing five units or more surging to 513k . Meanwhile, single-family starts were essentially unchanged, slipping just 0.2% to 895k . Building permits, which provide a look at future construction activity, moved in the opposite direction. Total permits declined 3.0% to an annual rate of 1.367 million , down 2.3% from a year earlier. Single-family authorizations fell 2.4% to 871k , while multifamily permits were issued at a rate of 445k . The sharp rebound in total housing starts also reinforces the notion that May's exceptionally weak reading was largely the result of unusually volatile multifamily data rather than a broad deterioration in residential construction. Single-family activity remained remarkably steady over the two-month period, while multifamily starts swung from one of their weakest readings in years to one of their strongest. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/07172026-pending-home-sales Fri, 17 Jul 2026 17:51:00 GMT 6a5a6d39f27dbf5c826ed043 Matthew Graham Pending home sales declined in June as elevated mortgage rates and record-high home prices continued to weigh on buyer demand. The National Association of Realtors' Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), which tracks signed contracts on existing homes, fell 5.4% from May and was down 0.3% compared with a year earlier. The latest report suggests affordability remains a significant hurdle for prospective buyers. While employment gains continue to support household finances, higher borrowing costs and elevated home prices have kept many buyers, particularly first-time purchasers, on the sidelines. “The highest mortgage rates in nearly a year and the record-high national median home price together are contributing to a tepid housing market that is especially difficult for first-time homebuyers,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He added that continued job growth could help support housing demand, while noting that pending sales should be viewed as an indicator of future closings rather than a direct measure of completed transactions due to contract contingencies and fallout rates. Contract activity weakened across every major region during the month. The Northeast posted the smallest monthly decline at 3.0% , while the Midwest recorded the largest drop at 8.9% . The South fell 4.1% and the West declined 4.7% . Compared with a year earlier, pending sales increased 2.2% in the Northeast and 0.3% in the Midwest, while the South and West posted declines of 0.9% and 1.1% , respectively. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/07172026-builder-confidence-nahb-hmi Fri, 17 Jul 2026 17:40:00 GMT 6a5a6afdf27dbf5c826ed041 Matthew Graham Builder sentiment weakened further in July as affordability challenges and ongoing economic uncertainty continued to weigh on the market for new single-family homes. The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) slipped two points to 34 , marking the 15th consecutive month the index has remained below 40--the longest such stretch since 2012. The latest reading reflects persistent headwinds for the industry, with elevated mortgage rates, rising material costs, expensive land and ongoing labor shortages continuing to limit both builder confidence and buyer demand. All three major components of the index moved lower in July. Current sales conditions declined one point to 37 , while sales expectations over the next six months fell two points to 43 . Traffic of prospective buyers also dropped two points to 23 , indicating many prospective purchasers remain on the sidelines. “Many potential buyers remain on the sidelines as they wait for lower mortgage rates, more certainty on inflation and a clearer economic outlook,” said NAHB Chairman Bill Owens. He added that the recently enacted 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act includes provisions intended to address land-use, zoning, regulatory and financing challenges, though those reforms will take time to produce results. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said affordability remains the industry's biggest obstacle, citing elevated mortgage rates, costly land, rising material prices and persistent skilled labor shortages. While he called the new housing legislation a positive step toward expanding supply and lowering housing costs, he noted that additional policy changes at the state and local levels will be needed to meaningfully improve conditions. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/07172026-mortgage-applications-mba Fri, 17 Jul 2026 17:31:00 GMT 6a5a687cf27dbf5c826ed03f Matthew Graham Mortgage application volume declined again last week as higher borrowing costs weighed on home purchase demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.7% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 10, even as refinance activity posted a modest rebound. Purchase applications fell 7% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and were 2% lower than the same week one year ago, marking a pullback after purchase demand had outpaced year-ago levels in recent weeks. Refinance activity moved in the opposite direction, with the Refinance Index increasing 4% from the prior week. Despite mortgage rates climbing higher, refinance applications remained 7% above year-ago levels, supported by stronger FHA and VA refinance activity. “Mortgage applications declined as the 30-year fixed rate increased to 6.65 percent, the highest level since August 2025. Purchase applications were down over the week and dipped below last year’s pace in the week following the July 4th holiday,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Despite higher mortgage rates, refinance applications increased, led by FHA and VA refinance applications rising 9 and 10 percent, respectively.” The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 43.2% from 40.6%, while the adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share declined to 7.1% from 7.8%. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-07172026 Fri, 17 Jul 2026 15:44:36 GMT 6a5a2264a57fb8ab13b9f42d Rob Chrisman I was speaking with a friend recently, and I asked her what she does for lunch. She replied, “Zentangle.” Yup, it’s a thing, something that wasn’t around when I was a kid. When I was a kid, people living on the street were known as homeless. Now the term is the “unhoused.” When I was a kid, any vacant house was usually creepy and rumored to have someone living there eating cat food. Now… of the nearly 150 million housing units in the United States, over 10 percent are vacant. Approximately 89.7 percent of the housing units in the United States in the first quarter 2026 were occupied, per the Census Bureau, and 10.3 percent were vacant. (Owner-occupied housing units made up 59 percent of total housing units, while renter-occupied units made up 31 percent of the inventory.) Granted, there are various reasons a unit is vacant, but my guess is that some of them could be sold to someone who really wanted them. (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Zillow Home Loans, Zillow’s in-house mortgage lender. By integrating Zillow’s real estate platform with financing, Zillow Home Loans helps buyers move from dreaming about a home to holding the keys, and loan officers focus on guiding buyers with care and confidence. Today’s has an interview with Bank of Oklahoma’s Chris Maloney on Agency MBS performance, and what investors are watching regarding how normalization in mortgage rates and housing conditions will influence speeds, supply, and valuations going forward.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-07172026 Fri, 17 Jul 2026 13:35:46 GMT 6a5a3dd0a6791958c54ee5d5 Matthew Graham In a month where bonds have made a visible reconnection with fuel prices thanks to the Iran war resurgence, there have been several notable departures in the correlation. Today is the latest example. If we're splitting hairs, we can still observe yields and fuel prices generally moving in the same direction overnight, but when fuel prices surged between 4am and 9am, bonds didn't really follow. One of the only ways to reconcile that phenomenon is via the fairly brisk selling in equities.  S&P futures have repeatedly bumped into resistance around 7630. Thursday was the latest failure to break that ceiling. Tech-focused stocks are doing even worse and are set to open below their multi-month consolidation/pennant formation. Investors are clearly thinking about capital preservation in the short term rather than buying dips in the stock market. This could all turn on a dime, of course, but until it does, bonds are picking up some of the scraps. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-07162026 Thu, 16 Jul 2026 20:46:24 GMT 6a595244a6791958c54d4805 Matthew Graham Ultimately Uneventful Despite Modest Weakness Bonds lost ground modestly today with the ultimate damage being roughly an eighth of a point for MBS and less than a bp for 10yr yields. The selling was led by the short end of the curve (i.e. 2yr yields were up 1.5bps). There wasn't any obvious catalyst apart from an ongoing surge in fuel prices. Perhaps most notably, fuel futures peaked at the same time as bond yields and both declined together after that. We're also not bothered by the short end leading the selling considering how resoundingly it led the rally over the past 2 days. Bottom line: this feels like incidental consolidation after a solid 2-day rally and not something that's indicative of new momentum.  Econ Data / Events Jobless Claims (Jul)/11 208K vs 217K f'cast, 215K prev Philly Fed Business Index (Jul) 41.4 vs 13 f'cast, 10.3 prev Philly Fed Prices Paid (Jul) 53.90 vs -- f'cast, 53.20 prev Retail Sales (Jun) 0.2% vs 0.2% f'cast, 0.9% prev Retail Sales Control Group MoM (Jun) 0.5% vs 0.5% f'cast, 0.7% prev Market Movement Recap 08:31 AM weaker overnight and no reaction to econ data. MBS down more than an eighth and 10yr up 3.5bps at 4.586 11:37 AM Strongest levels. MBS down only an eight and 10yr up 2.2bps at 4.572 02:00 PM MBS down 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr up 1.6bps at 4.566 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-07162026 Thu, 16 Jul 2026 19:27:00 GMT 6a5932584d543ca5e637ad2d Matthew Graham While some news stories suggest that rates are the highest in 11 months today, that's not quite true. The highest rates of the year were seen on July 13th and May 19th when our 30yr fixed index hit 6.75%. The index was at 6.68% today, up from 6.64% yesterday. Any news regarding "highest rates since August 2025" is almost certainly citing Freddie Mac's weekly rate index which takes a 5 day trailing average rate through Wednesday and reports it on Thursday.  As for the reason for today's increase, there really isn't a satisfying scapegoat. The strongest case to be made is that bond yields (highly correlated with mortgage rates) topped out at the same time as fuel price futures.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full