Yields on the 30-year and 10 year treasury bonds are used to set long-term residential mortgage interest rates – those with 30 or 15 year terms (now you know why those are the standard term lengths, too). Mortgages with shorter initial terms, like adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs) or hybrid mortgages are usually tied to shorter term securities. It is important to understand that bond yields and interest rates have an inverse relationship: when bond yields drop, interest rates on bonds rise. However, bond yields and interest rates have a direct relationship, meaning that when yields drop, interest rates drop too.
Interest rates on U.S. Treasury bonds and thus residential mortgage interest rates are influenced by many, many different economic variables:
Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Gross domestic product is the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States. A larger than expected increase in GDP or an increasing trend is considered inflationary. When inflation occurs, the cost of goods spirals out of reach of consumers. Inflationary trends may cause the Chairman of Federal Reserve Board (The “Fed” sets interest rates on bank-to-bank overnight loans – basically, loans from the federal government to banks) to raise interest rates to stop inflation.
Consumer Price Index (CPI): The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a fixed market basket of consumer goods and services. The CPI is considered the most important measure of inflation, and higher than expected CPI or an upward trend in the CPI is considered inflationary. The Fed may raise interest rates, and bond yields will fall, meaning mortgage interest rates might fall, too.
Other economic indicators that influence interest rates are the producer price index, which measures the average change over time in the selling prices received by domestic producers of goods and services; payroll employment statistics, which provide employment, hours and earnings estimates based on payroll records of businesses; and the unemployment rate, which shows how many people are not employed and not looking for employment. Like the GDP and CPI, increases in these indicators are considered inflationary, causing interest rates to rise. Another economic indicator considered to influence mortgage interest rates is consumer expectation. For reasons that are too complicated to go into here, if consumers expect mortgage rates are going to drop, they usually eventually will. Other economic indicators that people consider important, like housing starts and consumer credit are not thought to have any effect on interest rates.
Answer Submitted on Mon, Feb 5 2007
Rate this Answer: