After updating our loan pricing model we see that, on average, loan pricing is about the same as it was on Monday. This leaves the best execution 30 year fixed mortgage rate at 4.875%. There continues to be a large drop off in rebate between 4.875% and 4.75%. This is a factor of lenders hedging with...
The quiet holiday trading environment continues to cap activity in the MBS market. TBA flows were almost 65% below average today. This was the slowest day of the month so far.
Trend channel continues to hold as volume continues to dwindle. Wouldn't read too much into the losses this afternoon. They were an expected result of low participation and preparation for next week's supply
It's too bad to refer to a negative trend in a positive way, but it is behaving just as expected. After breaking the triangle convergence, 10's have continued to bump into the bearish support line leading yields higher and higher. As evidence for the reliability, yields are paying little regard...
Pull up your 10yr charts and picture imaginary lines connecting this mornings highs, and another line connecting the lows. They should be parallel. Until now, trends were converging in a triangular pattern beginning with yesterday's high yield and touching 3.35 today. With the triangle broken, the...
4.5's at 102-00 now. and that, my friends, is the danger zone.
Seeing the first signs of the bullish support trendlines breaking in 10's and 4's (as expected). If 4.5's hit 102-00, they will confirm the break for production MBS and as the last update suggested, serve as the first warning sign of potential reprices for the worse.
If FNCL 4.5s cross through 102-00 it becomes more likely that we'll see reprices for the worse. Though most lenders will probably pull the trigger closer to 101-28.
Yawn... Same thoughts as before, just further ahead in space-time.... MBS and tsy's both continue to converge in previously discussed triangles, and continue to get supportive and resistive bounces off those lines. One will break, and it will probably be the bearish resistance line, but that won't...
Trading conditions are getting more and more illiquid. Volumes are very low across the curve. Do not attempt to rationalize exaggerated jumps in yields or prices.