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It's too bad to refer to a negative trend in a positive way, but it is behaving just as expected. After breaking the triangle convergence, 10's have continued to bump into the bearish support line leading yields higher and higher. As evidence for the reliability, yields are paying little regard...
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4.5's at 102-00 now. and that, my friends, is the danger zone.
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Seeing the first signs of the bullish support trendlines breaking in 10's and 4's (as expected). If 4.5's hit 102-00, they will confirm the break for production MBS and as the last update suggested, serve as the first warning sign of potential reprices for the worse.
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If FNCL 4.5s cross through 102-00 it becomes more likely that we'll see reprices for the worse. Though most lenders will probably pull the trigger closer to 101-28.
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Amongst lenders known to reprice early, there's a small chance you could see a reprice for the worse as MBS just ticked to their lowest level of the morning with 4.0's at 98-27. Treasuries are in the middle of what was a fairly stable range yesterday between 3.30 and 3.35, but have been heading...
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FINAL Q3 GDP +2.6 PCT vs. CONSENSUS +2.8 PCT vs. PREV +2.5 PCT. CONSUMER SPENDING +2.4 PCT vs. PREV +2.8 PCT. Q3 BUSINESS INVENTORY CHANGE ADDS 1.61 PERCENTAGE POINT TO GDP CHANGE. Q3 CORE PCE +0.5 PCT RISE SMALLEST SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1959
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About an hour before 5pm "going out" levels, 10yr yields broke through their long term retracement at 3.34+. After having tested that line again, this time as support, yields are headed lower into the unofficial close. MBS have shot up to the highs of the day in concert with this technically...
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3.35 has been broken and yields are now moving in the 3.34 range. Reprices for the better are possible if this holds
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3.35 resistance held and 10yr yields backed up to 3.38, previous highs of the day. In response, MBS 4.0's moved down to low of the day at 98-17 making reprices for the worse a possibility
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