http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ Mortgage News Daily https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-05192026 Tue, 19 May 2026 15:55:21 GMT 6a0c5788107097c225509350 Rob Chrisman One of the discussion topics here in New York at the MBA conference is, just like every other conference, artificial intelligence, and one of the questions is, “Who’s accountable if something goes wrong?” Any one of us in capital markets will tell you that, in the case of Freddie, Fannie, investors, and so on, lenders are held ultimately accountable for anything that goes wrong. In the event of a buyback, or default, a lender can’t point at an AI vendor and say, “You cover the losses.” Make sure that with any software that you buy you know where it came from and how it was designed, and ask lots of “what if” questions. Sprinkling some AI fairy dust over some legacy technology that is years old can cause serious issues. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by TransUnion. Discover how data-driven mortgage intelligence is helping lenders identify in-market borrowers, strengthen portfolio performance, personalize outreach, retain customers, and drive smarter growth in an increasingly competitive housing market. Today’s has an interview with Acrisure’s Kristen Britton on how lenders are balancing speed, automation, fraud prevention, and human oversight as remote closings reshape mortgage risk, identity verification, and the future framework of trust in digital transactions.) Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services The ICE 2026 Borrower Insights Survey shows a 10 percent year-over-year drop in borrowers who say they are definitely satisfied with communication with their mortgage servicer. Pair that with the survey finding that 96 percent of borrowers say personalized communications remain important to them. These findings suggest servicers need tools that go beyond basic payment processing and to deliver relevant, timely outreach that satisfies borrowers and supports retention. ICE Servicing Digital offers the communication tools to help turn transactional relationships into lasting ones, including surfacing personalized refinance scenarios, current rates and tappable equity alerts directly to borrowers. Read the blog for more insights into borrower communication preferences and how to strengthen borrower relationships. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-05192026 Tue, 19 May 2026 13:40:02 GMT 6a0c767ca6791958c5d09abd Matthew Graham Ever since the initial 2 week ceasefire was announced in the Iran war, the bond market has adhered to trend channels that align with either de-escalation or re-escalation sentiment. Nothing too complicated here: if sentiment is trending in favor of peace, bonds have rallied. If sentiment is deteriorating, bonds have sold off. There was a temporary diversion as traders waited to see if last week's China summit would be a catalyst for a shift. When the summit failed to deliver, yields jumped back in line with the re-escalation trend. Now this morning, they're already challenging the bearish boundary of that trend WITHOUT any new justification from an oil price spike, stock market rout, or any new news on the war. In other words, bonds are telling politicians to get serious about ending the war or face increasingly dire consequences. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-05182026 Mon, 18 May 2026 20:18:22 GMT 6a0b82bca6791958c5ceea41 Matthew Graham Bombarded by Headlines, But Little-Changed Monday's trading session ended up being an exercise in headline-watching, as has been the case on so many days since the start of the Iran war. Today was more active than normal in that regard. The earliest headlines (as covered in the AM commentary) were helpful until they weren't. Subsequent headlines continued pushing back on the notion of an easy peace deal until 3pm. At that point, Trump posted that a planned military operation for tomorrow was cancelled and that serious negotiations were now taking place between great leaders and allies, and that a deal will be made. Bond yields and oil prices dropped on that one with Treasuries ultimately making it back to unchanged in the final hour of the session. Market Movement Recap 08:55 AM Some early gains on war headlines. MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 1.8bps at 4.573 11:04 AM Gains fully erased as newswires push back on previous headlines. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.8bps at 4.61 02:48 PM New lows. MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 2.7bps at 4.618 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-05182026 Mon, 18 May 2026 19:34:00 GMT 6a0b6bb6b92937618432b2b4 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates hit their highest levels in more than 9 months at the end of last week. Now today, they've edged slightly higher yet again with the average top tier 30yr fixed rate at 6.68% versus 6.65% on Friday. This wasn't necessarily destined to be the case today. In fact the day began with the average lender unchanged. But the underlying market remains highly attuned to breaking news on the Iran war. Earlier in the day, that news was helpful for rates as it spoke to the possibility of compromise on a peace deal. Subsequent headlines refuted the initial news, thus pushing the financial market back in the other direction (i.e. toward higher rates). The result was that the average lender recalled their initial rate offerings and re-released higher rates. Things were on track to be even worse this afternoon when Trump said he was cancelling a planned attack and that serious negotiations were taking place. This helped bonds recover some of the earlier losses, but not enough for lenders to make any friendly rate adjustments today.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-05182026 Mon, 18 May 2026 15:43:17 GMT 6a0affd00e022c5036757f11 Rob Chrisman For those of you who like maps, here’s one of the states’ closing costs. And here’s something for companies who have training programs: New hires should check out the Business Glossary from MISMO. It covers business processes, events, calculations, documents, forms, regulations, AI terminology, and more. LOs of various ages tell me that people in their 20s not only are inclined to rent to “see how the weather is” but also because of money. LendingTree’s latest report shows U.S. homeowners with a mortgage now pay 37 percent more per month than renters, underscoring how sharply monthly housing costs have climbed in recent years. “Rent wins in every major metro, even in the tightest markets. When it costs so much more to own than to rent every month, it forces people who want to own a home to face some tough decisions, including potentially having to relocate to another city in search of reasonably priced property. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by TransUnion. Discover how data-driven mortgage intelligence is helping lenders identify in-market borrowers, strengthen portfolio performance, personalize outreach, retain customers, and drive smarter growth in an increasingly competitive housing market. Today’s has an interview with Lower’s Craig Montgomery on how strategic leadership is shaping lender growth in 2026 through effective team building, evolving production trends, competitive retail execution, and strong real estate agent relationships.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-05182026 Mon, 18 May 2026 14:36:48 GMT 6a0b330ca6791958c5ce4aaf Matthew Graham Bonds began the overnight session by drifting somewhat higher in yield. The 10yr hit 4.63 before recovering modestly just before domestic trading began. Yields were still slightly higher at 7:30am but moved lower after headlines cited rumors that the U.S. agreed to lift Iran's oil sanctions. Subsequent headlines cited a revised counter-proposal from Iran in which it would accept a long-term freeze of its nuclear program in exchange for a truce and gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Bonds rallied on both those newswires with 10s making it below 4.57. They're since reversed course on a 3rd set of newswires citing Iran's negotiators as saying U.S. demand remain excessive despite the changes in the draft proposal. The chart below shows all 3 sets of newswires and the corresponding movement in oil/bonds with strong correlation. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-05152026 Fri, 15 May 2026 21:12:13 GMT 6a079b20a6791958c5c96afb Matthew Graham Bonds Continued Drifting Weaker Throughout The Day Nothing new or interesting happened during the course of the trading day. The key market movers were in place at the start of domestic trading. From an analytical standpoint, the morning commentary adequately recaps the day's bond market motivations. Yields continued drifting higher throughout the session as investors pulled out of both sides of the market in protest of the apparent extension of the Iran war timeframe. 10s ultimately tapped 4.6% and MBS flirted with a 3/4th point day-over-day drop. In the bigger picture, mortgage rates are doing much better than Treasuries compared to last year's levels thanks to GSE bond buying. Econ Data / Events NY Fed Manufacturing (May) 19.60 vs 7.5 f'cast, 11.00 prev Industrial Production (Apr) 0.7% vs 0.3% f'cast, -0.5% prev Market Movement Recap 08:26 AM Sharply weaker overnight. MBS down more than 3/8ths and 10yr up 6.5bps at 4.55 11:47 AM weakest levels. MBS down 5/8ths and 10yr up 10.2bps at 4.586 02:47 PM MBS now down .75 and 10yr up 11bps at 4.595 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/05152026-cpi-shelter-shutdown Fri, 15 May 2026 18:12:00 GMT 6a0769698551a7fafe8a6109 Matthew Graham The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a highly technical research paper this week examining how the agency handled missing shelter inflation data during the October 2025 government funding lapse. The issue stemmed from the CPI’s housing survey, which was unable to collect rent data during the shutdown period. With no fresh survey results available, BLS relied on a “carry-forward” methodology that essentially treated rents as unchanged for the affected sample. That decision temporarily froze the CPI’s rent and owners’ equivalent rent (OER) indexes in October 2025, likely making shelter inflation appear somewhat cooler than it actually was for the next several months. In the new paper, BLS tested several alternative approaches to estimate what shelter inflation may have looked like under different assumptions. Every alternative method produced firmer rent and OER inflation readings than the official CPI figures published at the time. Depending on the methodology used, the research suggests shelter inflation may have been understated by roughly 0.3% to 0.6% on a year-over-year basis during the affected stretch. That may sound minor, but for markets closely tracking inflation and Fed policy expectations, a few tenths can matter. Still, BLS stressed that the distortion was temporary rather than structural. Once the affected housing panel was surveyed again in April 2026, both the official indexes and the research indexes largely converged back to similar levels. In other words, April's housing inflation essentially counted two 6-month cycles' worth. Thus, monthly housing inflation was more like 0.3 than 0.6. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/05152026-service-retention-ice-mortgage-monitor Fri, 15 May 2026 18:04:00 GMT 6a07617a2b5857dcbcb73163 Matthew Graham Refinance activity continued to recover in the first quarter of 2026, but mortgage servicers retained a smaller share of borrowers despite the stronger lending environment, according to the latest ICE Mortgage Monitor. ICE estimated that roughly 585,000 first-lien refinances totaling $242 billion closed during the quarter, up from a revised 550,000 loans and $234 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025. Refinance volume more than doubled compared with the same period last year and reached its highest quarterly level since early 2022. Refinances accounted for nearly 44% of all mortgage originations in the first quarter, the highest share in four years. Rate-and-term refinances represented 60% of overall refinance activity, marking a five-year high as lower mortgage rates improved borrower incentive. Even with refinance activity gaining momentum, servicer retention weakened during the quarter. ICE reported that servicers retained 32% of refinancing borrowers, down from 35% in the prior quarter. Retention among rate-and-term refinances fell from 42% to 37% . It should certainly be noted that, although retention moved lower in the most recent quarter, overall levels are still the highest in years and that rate/term refis, in particular, have ramped up steadily over the past 3 years. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/05152026-existing-home-sales-nar-inventory-prices-appr Fri, 15 May 2026 17:58:00 GMT 6a075fa52b5857dcbcb73160 Matthew Graham Existing-home sales edged slightly higher in April, stabilizing after March’s decline as improving affordability and increased inventory provided modest support for buyers. Sales increased 0.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.02 million , matching the pace seen one year ago. “Despite mixed macroeconomic signals—including a record-high stock market and historically low consumer confidence—home sales were modestly boosted by the continued improvement in housing affordability,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He also noted that mortgage rates remain lower than a year ago while income growth continues to outpace home price appreciation. Inventory continued to improve in April, though supply remains relatively constrained by historical standards. Total housing inventory climbed to 1.47 million units , up 5.8% from March and 1.4% higher than a year ago, representing a 4.4-month supply of homes. “Inventory still remains tight,” Yun said, adding that multiple offers are still occurring in some markets even as buyers take more time to make purchasing decisions. Home prices continued to move higher nationally, though appreciation remained relatively modest. The median existing-home price increased to $417,700 , up 0.9% year-over-year and marking the 34th consecutive month of annual price gains. Affordability improved compared to last year across all regions. The Housing Affordability Index registered at 110.6 in April, up from 101.4 one year earlier, reflecting the combination of slower home price growth, easing rates, and stronger household incomes. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full