http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ Mortgage News Daily https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-08102026 Mon, 10 Aug 2026 15:42:58 GMT 6a79befc34378d000c4e186c Rob Chrisman Here in the hallways at the Western Secondary in L.A., there isn’t a lot of talk about GSE reform, although this short clip from Sam Valverde, ex-acting president of Ginnie Mae, revisits the subject: The GSE reform trigger nobody's watching closely enough. More of the talk is about 2nd quarter earnings, and I received this note: “Rob, I am a broker in Missouri. Last week there was a lot of news about UWM. All I try to do is help my clients. Why should I care about UWM’s earnings, or write downs on the value of their servicing, or losses on hedges?” Thank you for the note: see below for some perspective originators and others should have on earnings and counterparty relationships. Meanwhile, the California MBA, and national MBA, has a patient strategy: absorb shocks and respond to consumer demand, advocate for continuation of programs and policies, and promote competition in the $2 trillion ’26 market. There is needed regulatory reform to be discussed (“we need better, not more”), as well as seeing the rate lock affect easing. “For sale” inventories are recovering. First time home buyers & low-income borrowers have been disproportionately affected. The MBA has avoided spats with Agency officials. Consumers are safe from abusive trigger leads. (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Optimal Blue. Optimal Blue’s Profitability Center unifies pricing, hedge performance, pipeline activity, profitability, and market intelligence into one personalized dashboard, giving mortgage lenders faster, more complete insights to make better capital markets decisions. Today’s has an interview with California MBA’s Paul Gigliotti on the Western Secondary Conference, and cohesive advocacy efforts.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-08102026 Mon, 10 Aug 2026 14:32:20 GMT 6a79efe0a6791958c581cfbe Matthew Graham Recent experience suggests the safest assumption about oil prices and bond yields is that they will pop and drop with reasonable regularity. In other words, lower prices/yields for a few days following friendly war-related headlines tend to give way to unfriendly headlines and a market reversal. Wash, rinse, repeat. The new week is starting off with unfriendly news and higher oil/yields. There's not much sense in attempting to dig any deeper on market analysis so far today. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-08072026 Fri, 07 Aug 2026 21:21:13 GMT 6a765b78a6791958c57d0168 Matthew Graham Not Quite The Rally You'd Expect, But a Rally Nonetheless Today's vitals might be a bit confusing at first glance. Payrolls came in at -23k versus forecasts of 80k. At most moments in history, that would be worth a substantial rally. Today it was only worth 3bps in the 10yr and a quarter point in MBS. To be fair, it was worth even less without a late day drop in oil prices for unrelated reasons. But at this moment in history, low payroll counts are far more common and they're doing far less to influence the unemployment rate (case in point, today's FELL to 4.1% from 4.2%). This went a long way toward offsetting the drop in payrolls. Nonetheless, payrolls remain very important to traders even if economists have shifted more of their focus to other metrics.  Econ Data / Events Average earnings mm (Jul) 0.1% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.3% prev Non Farm Payrolls (Jul) -23K vs 80K f'cast, 57K prev Participation Rate (Jul) 61.4% vs -- f'cast, 61.5% prev Unemployment rate mm (Jul) 4.1% vs 4.2% f'cast, 4.2% prev Market Movement Recap 09:06 AM sharply stronger after jobs data but off the very best levels. MBS up 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 5.3bps at 4.625 11:20 AM MBS up 7 ticks now (.22) and 10yr down 2.5bps at 4.652 (well off the lows of 4.603) 02:38 PM Very flat. MBS still up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 2bps at 4.658 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08072026 Fri, 07 Aug 2026 20:58:00 GMT 6a7647a81e74fb396f5338c7 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates dropped moderately today after the latest jobs report showed much lower jobs created than expected. The monthly jobs report is one of the most--if not THE most--important pieces of economic data to the rate market on any given month. If the numbers are close to forecasts, there isn't always a big reaction. Today's numbers were quite far from forecasts for some parts of the report, but slightly offset by others. The net effect was a decent improvement in the underlying bond market. Because mortgage rates are based on bonds, rates dropped accordingly. The average top-tier 30yr fixed rate moved down from 6.77 to 6.74--the lowest since July 20th.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/news/08072026-mortgage-applications-mba Fri, 07 Aug 2026 19:22:00 GMT 6a763286f83661b070f25863 Matthew Graham Mortgage application activity declined for a second consecutive week as higher borrowing costs continued to weigh on both purchase and refinance demand. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 2.9% decrease in total application volume on a seasonally adjusted basis for the week ending July 31. Purchase applications decreased 4% from the previous week on a seasonally adjusted basis and were 3% lower than the same week one year ago. Elevated mortgage rates continue to challenge affordability, dampening buyer demand despite improved housing inventory in some markets. Refinance activity also softened, with the Refinance Index falling 2% from the prior week and remaining 9% below year-ago levels. As rates moved higher, fewer homeowners had an incentive to refinance. "In the wake of the July FOMC meeting, longer-term rates increased, pushing the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to 6.81 percent, its highest level in more than a year,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s SVP and Chief Economist. Next week's data will likely bounce back higher given that rates have dropped noticeably so far in August. Per MND's daily rate tracking, 30yr fixed rates hit 2 week lows on Wednesday and moved even lower on Friday. Mortgage Rate Summary: 30yr Fixed: 6.81% (from 6.76%) | Points: 0.65 (from 0.69) 15yr Fixed: 6.13% (from 6.15%) | Points: 0.73 (from 0.84) Jumbo 30yr: 6.72% (from 6.70%) | Points: 0.52 (unchanged) FHA: 6.43% (from 6.41%) | Points: 0.75 (from 0.88) 5/1 ARM: 6.03% (from 5.98%) | Points: 0.99 (from 1.23) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-08072026 Fri, 07 Aug 2026 15:52:49 GMT 6a75d16e716472bdd916c6ad Rob Chrisman As many of us prepare to head to So Cal for the California MBA’s Western Secondary (800 or so registered), artificial intelligence continues to be the buzz. I recently received this question: “Rob, does it seem to you that we’re now at the same inflection point with AI as when everyone was afraid that DU & LP were going to replace all the underwriters?” Could be, and of course we still have underwriters. Meanwhile, borrowers still need help, and rates don’t show signs of going down. I received a question about “off the beaten path” routes for assistance. The Mortgage Credit Certificate Program might help. “The MCC program is a homebuyer assistance program designed to help lower-income families afford homeownership. The program allows homebuyers to claim a dollar-for-dollar tax credit for a portion of mortgage interest paid per year, up to $2,000. The remaining mortgage interest paid may still be calculated as an itemized deduction.” (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Figure. Figure is shaking up the lending world with their five-day HELOC, offering borrower approvals in as little as five minutes and funding in five days. Figure has hundreds of partners in the Banking, Credit Union, Home Improvement, and of course, IMB space embedding their technology. Today’s has an interview with Wilqo’s Tiffany Jacobelli on building scalable teams, processes, and operational frameworks that can handle mortgage volume surges without sacrificing quality, compliance, or borrower experience.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-08072026 Fri, 07 Aug 2026 13:05:21 GMT 6a75e648a6791958c57c1c07 Matthew Graham Nonfarm payrolls (NFP) FELL 23k versus an 80k forecast.  Last month was revised down as well. From a traditional market-watching perspective, this is pure rally fuel. Indeed, bonds are rallying sharply so far. Let's hope it sticks. Why wouldn't it? As labor force dynamics have shifted, it doesn't take much job growth (or perhaps any?) to keep the unemployment rate steady. In fact, unemployment dropped in today's report, though it should be noted it's offset by a lower labor force participation rate (meaning unemployment basically held steady). We've seen some shifts in trading patterns after jobs reports in the past year, so don't assume this rally completely sticks (it could, and that would be great, but it's not as much of a given as it would have been if these numbers came out in 2024).  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-08062026 Thu, 06 Aug 2026 19:05:00 GMT 6a74e928a6791958c57a5e55 Matthew Graham Almost Like Clockwork Almost like clockwork, after several days spent mostly rallying on a headline-driven drop in oil prices, bonds reversed course as the tone of the headlines changed and oil prices bounced. That said, oil didn't bounce too much today. The rest of the drama for bonds came courtesy of a big corporate bond announcement before the open. Yields remain safely under supportive ceilings for now, but weekend-adjacent days have been prime candidates for war headline volatility. And as always, the jobs report can never be ruled out as a source of inspiration for better or worse.  Econ Data / Events Jobless claims 199k vs 202k f'cast, 198k prev Market Movement Recap 09:18 AM Moderately weaker overnight on a combo of oil and corporate bond issuance.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr up 2.4bps at 4.637 11:46 AM MBS Down 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr up 4.5bps at 4.658 12:23 PM MBS now down 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr up 5.9bps at 4.673 02:20 PM Sideways at weakest levels. MBS down 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr up 5.9bps at 4.672 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08062026 Thu, 06 Aug 2026 18:08:00 GMT 6a74cf90a13cad8ee26a9f0d Matthew Graham Mortgage rates rose modestly on Thursday, with multiple lenders making mid-day adjustments in response to bond market volatility. Bonds remain highly attuned to war-related developments and the impact on oil prices which, in turn, have a bearing on inflation implications.  Higher inflation begets higher interest rates, all else equal. In addition to the oil/inflation narrative, bonds also came under some pressure as Alphabet announced a large corporate bond offering. Like anything in the market, bond prices change in response to supply and demand. If a big corporate bond competes for investor demand, it can indirectly lower the demand for the bonds that underlie mortgage rates. When bond prices fall, rates rise. The good news is that the adjustment is very small in the bigger picture. Additionally, yesterday's rates were the best in more than 2 weeks. In other words, today's rates are modestly higher than the 2-week lows.  There's potential for volatility tomorrow, for better or worse, in response to the monthly jobs report. And of course, war-related headlines create ongoing risk/opportunity for movement in either direction.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-08062026 Thu, 06 Aug 2026 15:04:59 GMT 6a74b0e8a6791958c579ebee Matthew Graham It's as good of a day as any to revisit our primer on corporate debt issuance given that it's having an impact on bonds today.  Alphabet announced a $25bln bond offering around 7:45am ET, and yields instantly moved 2bps higher. Before that, there was nearly 2bps of weakness as bonds followed oil prices modestly higher. Since the start of the domestic session, things have been calm. Econ data was a non-event. Both MBS and Treasuries are holding near yesterday's weakest levels (not a huge deal considering the narrow range).  Lastly, this could simply be viewed as a quick, token pull-back ahead of jobs report Friday.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full