http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ Mortgage News Daily https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06102026 Wed, 10 Jun 2026 20:04:45 GMT 6a29d1b8a6791958c5011c8c Matthew Graham War Headlines Cause Mid-Day Reversal Bonds started the day inconsequentially weaker and picked up some gains after CPI came in a hair lower than expected at the core level. Just before noon, yields began rising and ultimately hit the 3pm close up a few bps versus yesterday. MBS were down about an eighth of a point, but it wasn't enough for the average lender to bother with a reprice. A forensic audit of the afternoon weakness leaves only one explanation: war headlines. Specifically, Trump said the U.S. would be "attacking hard again today." The market may increasingly take these headlines with a grain of salt, but it doesn't ignore them. Both oil prices and bond yields moved higher after that and there were no notable alternative explanations for the 10yr weakness although the aftermath of the 10yr Treasury auction may have caused some supply/demand imbalances that contributed. Econ Data / Events m/m CORE CPI (May) 0.2% vs 0.3% f'cast, 0.4% prev m/m Headline CPI (May) 0.5% vs 0.5% f'cast, 0.6% prev y/y CORE CPI (May) 2.9% vs 2.9% f'cast, 2.8% prev y/y Headline CPI (May) 4.2% vs 4.2% f'cast, 3.8% prev Market Movement Recap 08:41 AM Slightly stronger after CPI. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 0.6bps at 4.526 (down from 4.538 before the data). 11:34 AM little changed from earlier levels. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr roughly unchanged at 4.519 11:55 AM Some volatility after Trump comments on attacking Iran. MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1bp at 4.529 02:55 PM Bouncing back from weakest levels. MBS now down 3 ticks (.09) vs 6 ticks (.19) earlier.  10yr now up 2.3bps at 4.541 vs intraday highs of 4.559 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06102026 Wed, 10 Jun 2026 18:32:00 GMT 6a29afc8b54b9c7998ad256e Matthew Graham There's been remarkably little change in mortgage rates so far this week. Monday saw a modest increase vs Friday, but since then, there's been essentially no change. Today's rates were technically 0.01% lower than yesterday's, but many lenders were perfectly unchanged. This is an acceptable result given the presence of high stakes economic data and ongoing war related headlines. The data in question was the Consumer Price Index (CPI), an inflation report that occasionally causes significant volatility for rates. Today's CPI (for the month of May) came in right in line with expectations, and slightly lower than expected when excluding food and energy prices. It seems to bear repeating that when CPI comes in lower than expected or lower versus the previous month, this rarely means that prices are falling. Rather, prices simply didn't go up quite as much as last month, but they're still rising at an unacceptably quick pace. Fortunately, rates get in position for forecasted results. Thus, the data merely needs to align with forecasts to avoid causing volatility. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-06102026 Wed, 10 Jun 2026 15:51:58 GMT 6a295a0834014ba8d1ace41c Rob Chrisman “Rob, everyone knows that the GSEs (Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae) don’t use credit scores for loan approval. They use it for pricing. The GSEs have created their own scoring system and it’s just the investors that utilize the score.” True dat. It takes a while to test the impact of credit scores on defaults, delinquencies, pricing, and prepayment speeds, and staff in our biz interested in any Agency pilot programs about credit are encouraged to reach out to their F or F representatives. People seem to like lists and rankings. ATTOM released its ResiScore, an AI-powered neighborhood intelligence offering that ranks residential areas based on projected housing market performance. If you have a client in the market to buy a home, you certainly welcome lower prices and lower rates (although if they’re also selling a home, you want to get the best possible price on that). But higher prices impact affordability much more than rates. Realtor.com estimates that one of two things would need to happen for monthly mortgage payments to fall back to 2019 levels: Household incomes would need to rise 56 percent, or mortgage rates would need to fall to 2.65 percent. In other words, it’s not happening anytime soon. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by JazzX, the first true end-to-end AI platform built for mortgage. From application to underwriting, JazzX is a new operating model that helps you scale growth, boost productivity, and transform how your team performs. Hear an interview with Automax.ai’s Humza Ahmed on how residential property appraisal technology is evolving, the way it's built for UAD 3.6, and what is dramatically reducing turnaround time.) Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06102026 Wed, 10 Jun 2026 13:52:25 GMT 6a297b00a6791958c5007147 Matthew Graham Most understand this, but some forget: CPI numbers on econ calendars are not prices. They're the change in prices. We bring that up in case anyone thinks today's core monthly CPI of 0.2 means that prices are lower than last month when the core was 0.4. While it's a decent monthly number and lower than the expected 0.3, it's also 2.4% if repeated for 12 months (still above the 2.0% target). Plus, we often forget that the 2.0% inflation target is for headline CPI--not core--and that is running at 4.2% y/y presently. Thankfully, forecasters were right on target with headline expectations, so despite being a lot higher than anyone would like, the bond market is not surprised and thus holding at levels just slightly better than before the data. If you see a chart of Owners' Equivalent Rent (OER), remember that last month's pop was driven by the October data being zeroed out due to the government shutdown combined with the fact that OER cohorts are only compared every 6 months. Thus April's CPI (the pop in the chart below) involves an April vs October comparison to update the monthly data. Today's data involves a May vs November comparison, and we had data for November. Excluding food, energy, and shelter, CPI was up 0.273--a slower pace than last month. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06092026 Tue, 09 Jun 2026 20:38:08 GMT 6a28886ca6791958c5febe4e Matthew Graham Bonds End at Strongest Levels Unlike yesterday, which saw an uneventful open give way to intraday weakness, today's momentum was mostly friendly. Bonds avoided panicking in the morning hours. Mid-day war-related headlines made for some quick 2-way trading in the noon hour, but yields never went any higher than the AM highs. After sorting out that volatility, steady gain brought yields to the lowest levels of the day in the final hour of trading. For context, this is right on the highest edge of the short-term range seen in the week and a half leading up to the jobs report.  Econ Data / Events NFIB Business Optimism Index (May) 95.3 vs 96.0 f'cast, 95.9 prev ADP Employment Change Weekly 29K vs -- f'cast, 35.75K prev Trade Gap (Apr) -55.90B vs $-56.1B f'cast, $-60.3B prev Market Movement Recap 08:23 AM A hair stronger overnight. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 2bps at 4.543 01:38 PM MBS up 2 ticks and 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.528 04:15 PM MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.4bps at 4.52 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06092026 Tue, 09 Jun 2026 19:42:00 GMT 6a286e9f660bc1b07a4d6a90 Matthew Graham Mortgage rates put an end to the most recent spike that followed last Friday's jobs report. Most of the upward movement happened on Friday, but yesterday offered a modest aftershock. Those two days brought the top tier 30yr fixed rate up to 6.68 from 6.58 on Thursday. Today's average remained perfectly flat at 6.68%. War-related headlines had periodic impacts on both oil prices and the bond/rate market. The scariest moment of the day for rates followed a headline that Iran had shot down a U.S. helicopter. Trump posted that the U.S. must respond to that attack, but subsequent comments minimized the initial sense of urgency. Oil prices definitely bounced higher on the news, but bonds/rates were able to hold their ground without forcing mortgage lenders to raise rates in the afternoon. Tomorrow brings the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is the earlier of the two official government inflation reports on consumer-level prices. The market is already priced for the median economic forecast, as always. If the actual numbers come in much higher or lower than those forecasts, it could cause volatility for rates in either direction (i.e. higher inflation = higher rates and vice versa). Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-06092026 Tue, 09 Jun 2026 15:48:38 GMT 6a28058d565fdd7433125e6f Rob Chrisman “Rob, have you heard that retail and DTC lenders have stepped up their training and monitoring of loan officers?” Absolutely. The same granular examination that is applied to borrowers is being applied to LOs, and not only with credit checks and background searches. Originators are expensive, as are leads, and the analysis of LO performance is critical. How do you train LOs, and how are they overcoming objections? I recently attended an Insellerate event where Aithena was demonstrated: a real-time AI voice “call with a borrower” for training. It was impressive! (No, this is not a paid ad.) We’ll see more of that going forward, leading to the “Will AI systems be licensed in NMLS?” (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by JazzX, the first true end-to-end AI platform built for mortgage. From application to underwriting, JazzX is a new operating model that helps you scale growth, boost productivity, and transform how your team performs. Hear an Interview with Google’s Sarah Armstrong on how AI search can make the home buying process feel less daunting and time-consuming by calculating finances, summarizing lengthy documents, or visualizing renovations.) Lender and Broker Products, Software, and Services Quick question: When was the last time you referred business to your realtor partners? That’s part of what’s making the new lender lead program from Inside Real Estate generate industry buzz right now. The company that acquired BoomTown (now operating as BoldTrail) has quietly rolled out an exclusive lead product built for lenders focused on retail growth and agent relationships. Borrowers come into the experience actively searching for both financing guidance and a real estate agent connection, giving lenders the opportunity to engage early and collaborate with agent partners. Some lenders are reportedly seeing qualified applications and active borrower engagement within the first week. But exclusivity matters here: markets are limited, and several states are already nearing capacity. Might be worth seeing if your territory is still available: Schedule a strategy call or Email/text Mike Ensch at 562-644-2373. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06092026 Tue, 09 Jun 2026 13:51:52 GMT 6a282980a6791958c5fe00a9 Matthew Graham For the second day in a row , bonds are starting out in modestly stronger territory, but let's hope we don't repeat yesterday's performance. That left yields even higher at the close than they were on Friday afternoon. Today's overnight gains leave yields in similar territory to yesterday morning. One redeeming technical development is that yields were willing to move below yesterday's pivot point point at 4.543. This doesn't necessarily mean anything, but it's better than a sharp stick in the eye. With limited econ data, we wait for any relevant war-related developments and, secondarily, concessionary or reactive tradeflows surrounding Treasury auctions. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06082026 Mon, 08 Jun 2026 21:18:45 GMT 6a27404ca6791958c5fc5ba1 Matthew Graham Bonds Faded in the Afternoon Despite Oil Price Recovery Oil prices and bond yields started the overnight session higher, but both moved to the lows of the day just after 9:30am. From then on, oil went broadly sideways while bonds sold off gradually. If oil had instead moved higher into the afternoon, we might not care about the bond market weakness. But as it stands, we have bond-specific defensiveness in the afternoon replacing the modicum of bond-specific bullishness we noted in the morning commentary. Not the end of the world, but not ideal. Market Movement Recap 09:13 AM Sideways to slightly stronger. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.528 10:40 AM 10yr yields are up 2bps at 4.552 and MBS down 5 ticks (.16).  03:27 PM MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 2.3bps at 4.555. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06082026 Mon, 08 Jun 2026 20:33:00 GMT 6a272a22a5293e5761747797 Matthew Graham The average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate rose 0.08% last Friday after the jobs report came in much stronger than expected. Today added another 0.02% of upward movement. Today's level of 6.68% is the 3rd highest of the past 9 months. Unlike Friday, there were no big-ticket economic reports driving volatility in rate markets. The only arguable cause and effect was seen earlier in the morning surrounding war-related headlines. These actually helped rates start the day lower than they otherwise would have. As the week continues, investors will remain tuned in to war-related developments as well as an important inflation report on Wednesday morning (the Consumer Price Index or "CPI").  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full