http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/ Mortgage News Daily https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-07012026 Wed, 01 Jul 2026 13:28:47 GMT 6a4524a4a6791958c52c9b0d Matthew Graham Bonds have added modestly to Tuesday's big quarter-end sell-off (a phenomenon that has nothing to do with the sorts of fundamental developments that dictate a vast majority of market movement). Thankfully, the random plumbing-related volatility is behind us as we begin the new quarter. Old-school potential volatility awaits. The morning's first order of business will be to see if Warsh says anything interesting at the SINTRA conference. After that, ISM Manufacturing data at 10am is a B+ market mover if it falls far enough from expectations.  Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06302026 Tue, 30 Jun 2026 19:59:16 GMT 6a442e8ca6791958c52aee14 Matthew Graham Why We Saw Steady Selling All Day We expected volatility would pick up on Tuesday for one reason or another and it did not disappoint. Sadly, the direction of the movement was disappointing as bonds sold off steadily virtually all day. While there was a bit of selling after the job openings data at 10am ET, the bulk of the weakness is likely due to additional quarter-end position squaring and rebalancing (the same thing that helped bonds last Wednesday). This is mechanical, emotionless, non-reactive trading conducted simply to dial in certain levels of bond holdings to match investment portfolio benchmarks and/or stock/bond allocation percentages. Most of it has already come and gone for Q2, but it doesn't take much to move the needle amid thin summertime volumes. Just the way the ball bounced today... Econ Data / Events Case Shiller Home Prices-20 y/y (Apr) 1.1% vs 0.9% f'cast, 0.8% prev CaseShiller 20 mm nsa (Apr) 1.0% vs -- f'cast, 1% prev FHFA Home Price Index m/m (Apr) -0.1% vs 0.2% f'cast, 0.1% prev FHFA Home Prices y/y (Apr) 2.0% vs -- f'cast, 1.7% prev Chicago PMI 56.7 vs 56.0 f'cast USA JOLTS Job Openings (May) 7.594M vs 7.30M f'cast, 7.618M prev Consumer Confidence 91.2 vs 94.7 f'cast, 93.1 prev Market Movement Recap 08:48 AM Initially stronger overnight with moderate selling just before the open. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.391 10:16 AM Weaker after JOLTS, but stabilizing now. MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 2.2bps at 4.397 01:47 PM Weakest levels. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 3.5bps at 4.41 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06302026 Tue, 30 Jun 2026 18:39:00 GMT 6a440ebfc30699d717875e68 Matthew Graham Starting last Thursday, mortgage rates have barely budged. In terms of our 30yr fixed index, the maximum day-over-day change has been 0.02% since then. The past 3 business days have seen rates either hold steady or move cautiously lower. Today's rates moved higher, but at just as slow a pace. The underlying bond market primarily took cues from trading motivations that didn't have anything to do with typical considerations like economic data and news headlines. As we discussed last week, some of the world's biggest investment accounts have been in the process of rebalancing their portfolios for the end of Q2. This was helpful for rates last week, but the opposite was true today. To a lesser extent, bonds lost some ground after this morning's job openings data for the month of May. It showed more job openings than the median forecast expected, which is generally bad for bonds/rates, but Thursday's jobs report for June is a more meaningful report with more power to cause volatility. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-06302026 Tue, 30 Jun 2026 15:57:11 GMT 6a43b1b62856cf1f28ad9193 Rob Chrisman Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Experian. From lenders and landlords to employers and consumers, Experian helps connect the housing ecosystem with the data and insights needed to make faster, confident decisions. Lead a smarter housing journey with Experian. Today’s has an interview with Experian’s Likhitha Mahendar Singh how the modern first-time homebuyer has evolved, why rental payment data is reshaping how lenders identify mortgage-ready borrowers, and how a data-driven approach can help better target, underwrite, and serve the next generation of homeowners. Broker and Lender Software, Products, and Services Everyone in lending is waiting for one thing: the Fed to cut rates and the refi boom to follow. Stop waiting. Alongside its industry-leading Energy-Smart DPA Program, Arcasa introduces its new Refinance Prospecting tool: bulk-upload the clients you locked into the high 6s and 7s and instantly see who can lower their rate today, without waiting on the Fed. Prospects come sorted by impact, ready to convert with one click. Structured as a standard FHA rate-and-term or simple refinance, the Energy-Smart assistance does the heavy lifting: covering closing costs, cutting utility bills via solar, and funding rate buydowns. Because those funds can go toward the buydown, even mid-6s borrowers are in play. No second payments, no income caps, and it can help retire bonds from other assistance programs. The opportunity isn't coming; it's already in your database. Sign up for a live demo or log in and start today. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06302026 Tue, 30 Jun 2026 13:21:52 GMT 6a43d1f8a6791958c52a3717 Matthew Graham Before looking at trading screens this morning, the first order of business would have been to mention the ramp up in economic calendar activity. While the line item count is respectable, it's really only the 10am Job Openings data that packs enough of a punch to represent any serious volatility risk. Even then, sometimes it hits and sometimes it doesn't. Bonds are starting out slightly weaker thanks to another dash of quarter-end position squaring. It arrived at almost the exact same time as the last Wednesday's installment, but in the form of selling instead of buying. Thankfully, it was a lot smaller and merely added about 2bps to 10yr yields (which remain well under the 4.42% technical level). Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06292026 Mon, 29 Jun 2026 19:25:43 GMT 6a42d4d8a6791958c52881fc Matthew Graham Volatility Risk Ramps Up From Here Monday made it clear that traders are playing by the typical summertime, holiday week rules which often see the first day of the week result in very low volume and volatility. While participation should remain lighter than normal, that's no guaranty of an ongoing absence of volatility. Even if there are fewer traders in the room, they can still move markets if econ data or Fed-speak (Warsh is on the calendar for Wednesday) bring any surprises. We're also interested to see if there are visible shifts that transcend data/news based on the recently outsized role of quarter-end rebalancing trades. Market Movement Recap 08:37 AM Flat overnight with mild selling at 8:20am. 10yr up 1.6bps at 4.383 and MBS down 3 ticks (.09). 12:30 PM 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.381 and MBS down 3 ticks (.09). 03:03 PM 10yr up half a bp at 4.373 and MBS down 1 tick (.03). Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-06292026 Mon, 29 Jun 2026 19:07:00 GMT 6a42c37548426d4ea2ea105e Matthew Graham Mortgage rates ended last week at the lowest level since May 14th. Most of the recent drop happened last Wednesday, but each day since then has added a microscopic improvement. Today was no exception with the 30yr fixed rate index falling a mere 0.01%--the lowest increment we measure. The calendar of economic events was completely empty and consequential news headlines were just as scarce. This will change over the next 3 days on at least one front. Big-ticket econ data comes out on each of the next 3 mornings. Thursday's jobs report is typically the most important scheduled monthly data, but each day carries at least some risk for volatility. Why only 3 more days this week? Because Friday is closed for the Independence Day observance. And when the bond market is closed, mortgage lenders don't generate new rate sheets (and typically aren't open to accept new locks). Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/opinion/pipelinepress-06292026 Mon, 29 Jun 2026 15:29:44 GMT 6a4264c86d186c57733b2966 Rob Chrisman Lenders often ask about improving their execution, and STRATMOR’s current blog is “Pricing That Can Help Borrowers.” MLOs occasionally ask about an online tool that can help potential borrowers understand the process. Here’s something for your new clients, especially those who are first-time home buyers: a short quiz to get them started on what to think about in financing a home. For those of us in the industry who ask about some of the terms in our business, here’s something to keep in your back pocket: The MISMO Business Glossary delivers a curated set of standardized business definitions used across the mortgage lifecycle. By providing consistent terminology, the glossary helps industry participants communicate more clearly, improve operational efficiency, and reduce misunderstandings that can lead to risk and errors. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Experian. From lenders and landlords to employers and consumers, Experian helps connect the housing ecosystem with the data and insights needed to make faster, confident decisions. Lead a smarter housing journey with Experian. Today’s has an interview with Clear Capital’s Jason Legare on why appraisal modernization adoption remains uneven despite clear efficiency gains, where alternatives such as inspection-based waivers are gaining traction, and the operational and cultural barriers slowing broader acceptance.) Broker and Lender Software, Products, and Services Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-morning-06292026 Mon, 29 Jun 2026 14:24:52 GMT 6a428e88a6791958c527f4b4 Matthew Graham At the risk of jinxing it, Monday is pretty much already in the back as an uneventful start to a holiday-shortened week (early close on Thursday and fully closed on Friday). Bonds were very flat overnight and are near unchanged levels in the first few hours. Unchanged is good in this case as it means we're holding in a friendlier trading range under the 4.42% technical level in 10yr yields. Today is the only data-free day of the week and the next 3 are action-packed by comparison. While we're expecting lower volume than normal due to the time of year and the holiday, this doesn't necessarily mean lower volatility. In fact, light volume often exacerbates volatility if there are big market movers in play (like Thursday's jobs report). We're also open to a bit of extra volatility on the first two days of the week as quarter-end trading wraps up. Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mbs-recap-06262026 Fri, 26 Jun 2026 20:51:07 GMT 6a3ef570a6791958c5233557 Matthew Graham Early Gains. Flat Afternoon. MBS Underperform Friday ended up offering a boring conclusion to a week that had at least some measure of excitement on Wednesday. Bonds started a hair stronger, lost ground modestly and then rallied to the day's best levels by noon. From there, 10yr yields went perfectly sideways in an ultra narrow range. MBS managed to hang on to just barely positive levels but gave up about an eighth of a point during the time Treasuries were holding steady. Technically, this is underperformance in a vacuum, but in the bigger picture, MBS have been doing just fine in relative terms. As a reminder, next week is 3.5 days thanks to Independence Day observance, and the jobs report will be on Thursday morning.  Market Movement Recap 09:04 AM Stronger overnight, but bouncing back a bit now. 10yr up 0.3bps and MBS unchanged. 12:04 PM Near strongest levels. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 1.8bps at 4.373 04:29 PM Off strongest levels in MBS, now up only 2 ticks (.06). 10yr down 1.9bps at 4.372 Mortgage News Daily 0 http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/rss/full