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Mortgage Rates Stay Mostly Flat, but Risk Volatility into December
November 30, 2012
Market Summary
US Markets were closed for the Thanksgiving Holiday last Thursday and many mortgage lenders remained closed on Friday. This made for a moderate amount of volatility in mortgage rates though they remained broadly sideways.
As markets and mortgage lenders got back in the swing of things on Monday, the week quickly shaped up to offer several themes. The first theme is that of "consolidation." Over the past four sessions, day-to-day pricing strategies at various lenders have become much more aligned. Contrast this to the previous holiday week that saw different lenders move rates in different directions on several occasions. Even though rates didn't move much ON AVERAGE last week, the current week has seen the same level of stability, but with less variation between lenders.
Mortgage News Daily Rates Strategist Matthew Graham notes: "It's not too much of a surprise to see lenders doing things differently from one another heading into what, for many, was a 4-day weekend. When volume and participation drop in the secondary market, the considerations and idiosyncrasies of individual lenders are magnified. On top of that, rates have been so flat in general that we really have to put them under a microscope to observe the day-to-day movement. This sort of flat baseline made the variations between lenders all the more noticeable."
Despite those variations, the theme of limited overall movement remains as Best-Execution stayed at 3.375% for Conventional, 30yr Fixed Loans. The small amount of movement has at least been slightly positive, but limited to minor improvements in the costs associated with prevailing rates. This might not continue to be the case according to Graham: "All things being equal, yes, rates are flat and well-supported. But we've seen a major shift of the market's attention. Whereas we're typically looking for information that's measurable, and data that operates on a schedule, we're now glued to edge of our seats for any and every piece of information that comes out about the Fiscal Cliff. As congressional leaders share their assessment of the progress (or lack thereof), markets are definitely responding. Mortgage rates are reasonably well-insulated from such things, but not so much so that they're immune. Things will probably head back in a more volatile direction into the end of the year."
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
Week in Review
Rates shown below are based on the 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
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Beginning Average:
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3.40%
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| Ending Average: |
3.38% |
| Weekly Change: |
-0.02% |
| Yearly Change: |
-0.60% |
Friday, November 23, 2012 : 3.40% (+0.00%)
Mortgage rates were unchanged on Friday, based on the small minority of lenders who remained open. Taken together with the first three days of the week, rates moved higher at first and have now leveled off in conservative territory. In this context, "conservative" means "higher than they otherwise might be," and we'd ascribe that phenomenon to the lack of participation surrounding the holiday.
Monday, November 26, 2012 : 3.39% (-0.01%)
Mortgage rates once again saw a greater-than-normal degree of stratification between lenders, meaning that some of them offered lower rates today while others moved their rate sheets higher. This is partly due to the relative mess that the Thanksgiving holiday makes of US markets every year. Because Friday was only a half day and because Thursday is a full market closure, many lenders are not open on Friday and did not put out rate sheets. Those that did, may have done so more conservatively than they otherwise would. On a final note, different lenders had different approaches leading up to the 4 day weekend, thus making for quite the variety of rate sheets between then and now.
Tuesday, November 27, 2012 : 3.38% (-0.01%)
Mortgage rates across multiple lenders were much more unified in their movement versus yesterday. Most lenders where unchanged to moderately improved and the overall range of that movement (or lack thereof) was significantly smaller than it has been in recent days. The net effect for today is a 30yr Fixed Best-Execution rate that remains at 3.375% for Conventional loans. Financial markets had been waiting for news on Greece's debt-reduction deal with Eurozone Finance Ministers and the IMF. While a deal was, in fact, reached, it fell short of unequivocally guaranteeing Greece's next bailout payment.
Wednesday, November 28, 2012 : 3.37% (-0.01%)
Mortgage rates began the day near their lowest levels since early October as bond markets stayed in strong territory on leftover Fiscal Cliff concerns from yesterday's session. But a new round of highlights from Congressional leaders sent markets back in the other direction into the afternoon, essentially benefiting stocks and pushing interest rates higher in bond markets. MBS prices fell enough that several lenders released negatively revised rate sheets in the afternoon. MBS are the "mortgage-backed-securities" that most directly influence lenders' rate sheets and when their prices move lower, rates move higher.
Thursday, November 29, 2012 : 3.38% (+0.01%)
Mortgage rates moved slightly higher on Thursday, depending on the lender, and whether or not they released negatively revised rate sheets yesterday. Today, some lenders released positively revised rate sheets in the afternoon as market conditions improved. Overall, the difference from Wednesday's offerings was quite small. Bond markets, including the secondary mortgage market, began the day in line with yesterday's closing levels. After some volatility in the morning surrounding the release of Preliminary 3rd Quarter GDP, MBS (the "mortgage backed securities" that most directly influence mortgage rates) slowly began to improve, but not nearly enough to get rates back to yesterday morning's levels.
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Today's Rates
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30 Yr FRM
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3.38%
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+0.01
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15 Yr FRM
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2.75%
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+0.00
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FHA 30 Year Fixed
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3.25%
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+0.00
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Jumbo 30 Year Fixed
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3.58%
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+0.01
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5/1 Yr ARM
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3.01%
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+0.00
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Average Mortgage Rates
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15 Yr. Fixed
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2.91%
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0.89
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-0.12
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30 Yr. Fixed
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3.62%
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1.22
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-0.14
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30 Yr. Fixed
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3.53%
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0.40
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-0.01
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15 Yr. Fixed
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2.89%
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0.35
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+0.00
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30 Yr. Jumbo
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3.75%
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0.31
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-0.01
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30 Yr. FHA
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3.36%
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0.65
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+0.00
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5/1 ARM
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2.60%
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0.37
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-0.02
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30 Yr. Fixed
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3.32%
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0.80
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+0.01
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15 Yr. Fixed
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2.64%
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0.60
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+0.01
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1 Yr. ARM
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2.56%
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0.50
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+0.00
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5/1 Yr. ARM
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2.72%
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0.60
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-0.02
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* FHFA averages are updated monthly. ** Mortgage Bankers Association (each Wednesday) and Freddie Mac (each Thursday) averages are updated weekly.
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Secondary Markets
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30YR FNMA 3.0
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105.19
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+0.13
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30YR FNMA 3.5
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106.67
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+0.08
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30YR GNMA 3.0
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106.66
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+0.14
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30YR GNMA 3.5
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108.78
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+0.11
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15YR FNMA 3.0
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105.44
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+0.05
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15YR FNMA 2.5
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104.58
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+0.09
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2 YR
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0.2539%
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-0.0039
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5 YR
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0.6234%
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-0.0080
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10 YR
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1.6045%
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-0.0171
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30 YR
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2.7785%
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-0.0210
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Prices as of: 11/30/2012 9:24AM EST
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